Spurs looking to acquire another 1st?

[Mr. Body]

We have our two shooting guards already right? Hawkins would be dope but how does he get to see time on the court…

Yes, you're drafting him over Branham. I do think the Spurs want shooting, of course they do, but more at the wing.

[DPG21920]

I get your logic, but “might be” up to 4 picks better, a year later, might be enough of a time value premium on its own but thats before factoring for risk adjustment and the strength of draft class evaluation. The CHA pick helps, but still don’t think it’s enough if you balance out all the odds. There are some decent draft pick trade value models out there, but none really address the time value of picks (a pick today is worth generally worth more than the same pick in the future - the only exception would likely be when accounting for draft class strength and generational talents at the very top end of the draft. For picks in the middle of the round, it would be highly unlikely for class strength factor to be stronger than time value). Same concept as the time value of money.

I get that - and Im fine swapping CHI pick with CHA pick too. Just not 3 picks. Especially looking at the trade deadline where getting a 1st was extremely difficult. Even good players were only fetching 2nds etc…

So with that in mind, giving someone an extra first, with more potential than the one they give up when they already get pick 6 as well? Just saying I think it may be solid enough. But ya, Im not saying it’s a slam dunk or no brained for ORL. Just that I can see a path to something like that being an opportunity with them or maybe a team around them willing to trade.

Hard to tell - trade deadline was strange with regards to firsts and values.

[buttsR4rebounding]

I’d do 3 picks for #6, but not for#11. Just because OKC was brain dead last year, and traded 3 picks for one outside of the top 10 doesn’t mean we have to follow suit.

All 3 picks were heavily protected. Also, a team with such a large war chest of picks as OKC has will value individual picks at a lower level than the average team. The timing of the picks along with the team’s current roster construction can raise or lower picks’ values.

[DPG21920]

But I just checked. OKC gave up pick 11 and the picks they got back:

Washington- top 14
Denver- top 14
Detroit-top 18

All definitely worse than 11.

So CHI being top 8 protected & TOR top 6 to me offsets not throwing in a 3rd (I can see using some extra 2nds though).

[DPG21920]

But none of this matters lol - it’s just a general mindset/framework where I would be happy if SA was looking at something like this. Using some of the picks to cash in now and get a player they like.

If they can’t get ok value and/or don’t like players THAT much, all good too.

[Chinook]

I don't love trading the Toronto pick, but three picks is doable. I'd prefer for the team to see how high it can get with CHA24, CHI25 and 33. The best scenario I could see is those picks plus turning Graham into THJ might get Dallas to punt on 10. The Spurs clean up their future pick pool while getting a good second pick in this draft. Between this and waiving Bertans, Dallas saves a sh'ton of money toward the aprons and collects future assets to try to shore up pieces around Kyrie and Doncic. Graham gives them the scoring-guard off the bench piece they keep letting go only to realize they actually need them.

[DPG21920]

Ya - there are lots of paths. Im just mentally working through possibilities using picks to consolidate some picks, look for opportunities while not giving up anyone in core like Keldon/Vassell/etc..

But Zach, Graham, Doug and people like that Im good with

The TOR pick thing is only if they really love someone obviously. I do think the value regardless of TOR + CHA pick should be done no matter what if possible, but largely agree the TOR pick is valuable and likely only gets on the table if there’s a player SA really loves

[buttsR4rebounding]

But I just checked. OKC gave up pick 11 and the picks they got back:

Washington- top 14
Denver- top 14
Detroit-top 18

All definitely worse than 11.

So CHI being top 8 protected & TOR top 6 to me offsets not throwing in a 3rd (I can see using some extra 2nds though).

So both the Washington and especially Detroit pick may have issues with conveyance and the Denver pick is likely to be 25th or lower. All picks are not created equal. I’m not necessarily disagreeing I’m just saying I can understand doing it if it’s a guy they are really targeting.

[Mr. Body]

So both the Washington and especially Detroit pick may have issues with conveyance and the Denver pick is likely to be 25th or lower. All picks are not created equal. I’m not necessarily disagreeing I’m just saying I can understand doing it if it’s a guy they are really targeting.

All three picks were 2023 picks. Two of them were pushed forward because they did not convey this year. The Denver pick was traded by NYK to Charlotte as part of the very confusing trade that got Duren to Detroit. Charlotte currently has that 2023 pick from Denver, which is #27.

[buttsR4rebounding]

All three picks were 2023 picks. Two of them were pushed forward because they did not convey this year. The Denver pick was traded by NYK to Charlotte as part of the very confusing trade that got Duren to Detroit. Charlotte currently has that 2023 pick from Denver, which is #27.

So depending on the conveyance details I wouldn’t be too confident in the Detroit pick coming to fruition. I’m sure that was part of the trade calculus.

[Mr. Body]

I've floated the idea of trading one of the 2024 picks to a team wanting to get out of this year. Both Golden State and Brooklyn do not have any draft picks next year. (GSW's is 1-4 protected, going to Memphis.)

Golden State is at 19
Brooklyn is at 21 and 22

I don't think you want to trade either the Charlotte or Toronto picks straight up, but there's something possible.

With the 19 or 21, you could perhaps entice Dallas more with a package absorbing salary with a player later in the draft. More attractive for them than leaving this draft without any players at all.

Dallas also has no picks next year, likely owing New York their 1-10 protected pick. They also have no SRPs this year. They came away with Jaden Hardy last second round and he's been alright.

SO... Getting GSW or BKN to trade one of their picks this year for one next year (and other accomodations) gives a platform to make Dallas comfortable trading their #10. This is because they still get a decent player in this draft. And whatever else.

This can get the Spurs to #10.

[Mr. Body]

So depending on the conveyance details I wouldn’t be too confident in the Detroit pick coming to fruition. I’m sure that was part of the trade calculus.

The Detroit pick's protections: 1-13 in 2025, 1-11 in 2026 and 1-9 in 2027
The Washington pick's protections: 1-12 in 2024, 1-10 in 2025 and 1-8 in 2026

They each become one or two SRPs if they don't convey.

They're not awful. They're bad franchises. It sort of beggars belief that neither of them will make the POs in those ranges. And they don't have to make the POs, they just have to improve to be not completely awful. But... yeah. Who knows.

[DPG21920]

Im just saying trading TOR + CHI picks for 11 means ORL gets plenty of value IMO. Spurs may not want to do that, but I don’t think the OKC trade means it has to be 3 1sts but you never know.

Will be interesting to see how this shakes out. Seemingly lots of sellers on paper at this point. Combine that with how trade deadline made it appear like days of teams just throwing a bunch of firsts at teams are somewhat coming to an end and you never know.

But that could have been Wemby effect where no team was giving up even a 1% shot at Wemby. Now that is over and teams know, they may be willing to trade firsts again since there’s no Wemby next draft

[exstatic]

So depending on the conveyance details I wouldn’t be too confident in the Detroit pick coming to fruition. I’m sure that was part of the trade calculus.

The protections on the Detroit pick drop to 1-9 by 2027. The Washington pick protections drop to 1-8 by 2026. Those will both likely convey, although it will take a while.

[scott]

But I just checked. OKC gave up pick 11 and the picks they got back:

Washington- top 14
Denver- top 14
Detroit-top 18

All definitely worse than 11.

So CHI being top 8 protected & TOR top 6 to me offsets not throwing in a 3rd (I can see using some extra 2nds though).

They are all heavily protected up front, but they do slide to lower protections pretty nicely.

Maybe CHI + CHA + 33 is the Compromise? Of course, they aren't going to invite any of us to the negotiating table if talks did occur

[DPG21920]

They are all heavily protected up front, but they do slide to lower protections pretty nicely.

Maybe CHI + CHA + 33 is the Compromise? Of course, they aren't going to invite any of us to the negotiating table if talks did occur

Haha - I would even do CHI + TOR, but ya, it’s not set in stone. Just a general framework

[scott]

So both the Washington and especially Detroit pick may have issues with conveyance and the Denver pick is likely to be 25th or lower. All picks are not created equal. I’m not necessarily disagreeing I’m just saying I can understand doing it if it’s a guy they are really targeting.

The WAS pick goes to Top 12 Protected in 2024, Top 10 in 2025 and Top 8 in 2026.

The DET pick is Top 18 in 2024, Top 13 in 2025, Top 11 in 2016, Top 9 in 2027>

Just the thing to consider in the calculus. So while on first glance WAS and DET picks may look less valuable than say, the CHA pick, they likely do have a higher chance of conveying (longer time horizons and more aggressive with the protections declining). One of the things I love about NBA pick trading is all these wrinkles that make objective valuation difficult.

[Mr. Body]

Guys, I think you're inventing a trade for a pick Orlando doesn't want to trade. They're going to find much-needed shooting there. IMO they're more likely to trade the 6.

[DPG21920]

The WAS pick goes to Top 12 Protected in 2024, Top 10 in 2025 and Top 8 in 2026.

The DET pick is Top 18 in 2024, Top 13 in 2025, Top 11 in 2016, Top 9 in 2027>

Just the thing to consider in the calculus. So while on first glance WAS and DET picks may look less valuable than say, the CHA pick, they likely do have a higher chance of conveying (longer time horizons and more aggressive with the protections declining). One of the things I love about NBA pick trading is all these wrinkles that make objective valuation difficult.

To me a combo of TOR + CHI picks are stronger than that and should be more than enough value. Im more unsure SA does that vs ORL tbh..

[DPG21920]

Guys, I think you're inventing a trade for a pick Orlando doesn't want to trade. They're going to find much-needed shooting there. IMO they're more likely to trade the 6.

We don’t know - don’t focus on that IMO. Just teams in that general range and using the pick combos SA has to move up in that area. But if you aren’t looking to move Keldon etc..then it will have to be a team that isn’t obsessed with moving a pick for a “win now” player etc..

But at end of the day there may be nothing there and this is all moot anyways.

[scott]

I've floated the idea of trading one of the 2024 picks to a team wanting to get out of this year. Both Golden State and Brooklyn do not have any draft picks next year. (GSW's is 1-4 protected, going to Memphis.)

Golden State is at 19
Brooklyn is at 21 and 22

I don't think you want to trade either the Charlotte or Toronto picks straight up, but there's something possible.

With the 19 or 21, you could perhaps entice Dallas more with a package absorbing salary with a player later in the draft. More attractive for them than leaving this draft without any players at all.

Dallas also has no picks next year, likely owing New York their 1-10 protected pick. They also have no SRPs this year. They came away with Jaden Hardy last second round and he's been alright.

SO... Getting GSW or BKN to trade one of their picks this year for one next year (and other accomodations) gives a platform to make Dallas comfortable trading their #10. This is because they still get a decent player in this draft. And whatever else.

This can get the Spurs to #10.

I would def do the CHA pick straight up for either of those. For the GSW pick, you're giving up a maximum of 4 draft slots in the future for the certainty of #19 now. I do that in a heartbeat if I'm the Spurs. I would probably want some SRP sweeteners (maybe even up to 33) if I am GSW.

[Mr. Body]

I would def do the CHA pick straight up for either of those. For the GSW pick, you're giving up a maximum of 4 draft slots in the future for the certainty of #19 now. I do that in a heartbeat if I'm the Spurs. I would probably want some SRP sweeteners (maybe even up to 33) if I am GSW.

Well, one, the Spurs won't want to actually take 3 FRPs next year (I don't think). Better to take two good rookies this year, then see what comes.

But if they manage to swap CHA 2024 for the 19 or 21, then there are two routes IMO:

1. They target players like Kobe Bufkin or Jordan Hawkins. I think both or either may go a bit earlier. Haven't gamed it out; one might be there.
2. They use the 19 or 21 to move up with other assets.

[scott]

Guys, I think you're inventing a trade for a pick Orlando doesn't want to trade. They're going to find much-needed shooting there. IMO they're more likely to trade the 6.

Yeah, the more I think about it the more Orlando probably wants to use both picks. Getting any combo of Cam/Walker/Hendrix and /Hawkins/George would probably fit their roster pretty well.

[buttsR4rebounding]

The Detroit pick's protections: 1-13 in 2025, 1-11 in 2026 and 1-9 in 2027
The Washington pick's protections: 1-12 in 2024, 1-10 in 2025 and 1-8 in 2026

They each become one or two SRPs if they don't convey.

They're not awful. They're bad franchises. It sort of beggars belief that neither of them will make the POs in those ranges. And they don't have to make the POs, they just have to improve to be not completely awful. But... yeah. Who knows.

No, they aren’t as bad as I figured. They will likely convey in 2025 although if Washington ever trades Beal that’s not a lock.

[DPG21920]

Yeah, the more I think about it the more Orlando probably wants to use both picks. Getting any combo of Cam/Walker/Hendrix and /Hawkins/George would probably fit their roster pretty well.

Agreed. But there may be a situation where they value “value” more than that player at 11 alongside knowing that netting an extra first may help in future deals if they are trying to make leap sooner to playoff team and they want to add vets via trade. But not sure - I see both angles.