Thinking about Orlando, their current depth chart probably looks something like this:
Fultz/Anthony
Harris/Suggs
F Wagner/Houstan
Bancher/M Wagner
Carter Jr/Goga/Bol Bol
The players in bold are the obvious upgrade points. You'd assume they'd probably still hold out hope that Suggs can become their starting PG.
Walker fits in very nicely as an upgrade to M Wagner, and would be a major upgrade over Houstan.
All true - but you have to ask; are there vets via FA or Trade they would value over adding more youth given how close they were to play in? Maybe, maybe not. Hard to tell. But if they think TOR+CHI picks come in more handy in landing a legit vet to fill that upgrade could see a path no?
It would seem to me based on their team and the improvement they showed last year, largely based on Paolo showing he is really legit (IMO), I would be looking to make a big leap if I were them. Maybe doing 11 for two more FRPs to use to acquire a good vet would be the way to go... who knows with that franchise though?
I think this is on point in terms of value for the next couple of picks after top 3.
The first rounders from Toronto ('24, protected 6-6-6), Chicago ('25, protected 10-8-8) and Atlanta ('25 and '27, unrestricted) have great chances of conveying and may very well do so in the lottery given the uncertain status of those teams. I'd be VERY wary of moving those picks, especially 2 of them for a single one right now, unless it's for a very highly rated prospect. One of those + #33 / #44 + bunch of future 2nds + taking bad salary + sending expiring contract (McDermott, Graham) should be the starting offer. I think that's a pretty fair package for a late lottery pick (Detroit landed #13 -Duren- for Denver's '23 first -clearly in the 20s all along- + 4 second rounders).
How many games do you figure other teams think the Spurs will win next year? 35? 40? So where would that have them picking, late lottery probably?
So you’re trading a pick somewhere around 11, plus Keldon Johnson, for a pick around 6. While I’m not as high as some on KJ’s value because of his bad defense, I’m inclined to agree with you.
Jonathan Issac IF healthy is a big piece also
Dude is tailor made for today’s basketball. I’m sad because I know there’s such a small chance we’ll be able to get him. But I know wherever he goes he’ll be fun to watch.
I'd do cha + CHI, but I wouldn't include Toronto as part of a package with any other first unless I was moving into the top 8.Haha - I would even do CHI + TOR, but ya, it’s not set in stone. Just a general framework
That's a good point. I don't think Orlando really wants to add to rookies to this squad. One at most and then vets..
When healthy, Isaac-Bol-M. Wagner (UFA) were the primary 3-5 backups.
Suggs was never going to be a PG in the NBA. If he can become a decent enough catch and shoot 3-point threat, he'll be their starting SG.
They'll probably target Van Vleet (Fultz, Isaac and Harris, all have relatively little to no guaranteed money, so they could sign him outright) in free agency.
Did mean SG on Suggs, good catch.
I think all the rest that you describe are still the big upgrade points (meaning you aren't going to avoid prospects because you're covered) and Any combo of Cam/Walker/Hendrix + /Hawkins would fit their team nicely.
Don't blame me, I didn't set the market
I didn't love the OKC trade last year but....they had the assets, had a guy they targeted fall and pulled the trigger to get it done. I can respect that tbh.
Spurs could find themselves in a similar spot and I trust this FO with drafting more than anything else they do. They're loaded with firsts for the next several years that they can't all use tbh, I wouldn't fault them for dipping into the warchest and taking a chance if they think it's worth it.
Go back and look at those picks. They were ty given all the protections. Like even tier than the Spurs’s CHA pick.Don't blame me, I didn't set the market
I didn't love the OKC trade last year but....they had the assets, had a guy they targeted fall and pulled the trigger to get it done. I can respect that tbh.
Spurs could find themselves in a similar spot and I trust this FO with drafting more than anything else they do. They're loaded with firsts for the next several years that they can't all use tbh, I wouldn't fault them for dipping into the warchest and taking a chance if they think it's worth it.
Let’s not act like they were lotto picks or anything. The CHI, TOR, and ATL picks are far superior.
The OKC trades are somewhat contextual.
The Denver pick was going to be late first, as it now is. The two other picks are going to be in the vaguely 10-16 range, and I think they will eventually convey. This, of course, is the range where they acquired the pick. Crucially, we need to account for the player grabbed. In this case, it's Ousmane Dieng.
It seems Presti splurged to grab two players in a row he liked, Dieng and Jalen Williams, a pick he nailed. Dieng hasn't looked terrific yet, but was a longterm project from the start. Also, if Presti couldn't decide and getting a new pick for Dieng allowed him to then pick Williams, it's a win. But ultimately it's either an incomplete or a 'C.' It feels like Dieng is a Pokusevski kind of swing of the bat. New York will be happy with the picks.
Now... if the Spurs see a player at #11 who should have been picked higher, I'd say trading three picks (theoretically) is a good deal. Depends on the picks, depends on the player. Like, if a player I think is top 5 in this draft is there, then it's a good trade (if it has to be three). If it's a big swing on a Dieng, it's not.
That move didn't set the market any more than Charlotte selling #13 for Denver's '23 first (low 20s, eventually #27) and 4 2nd rounders did. It's just one team with many more low quality first rounders than they can use, being infatuated with some guy. Doesn't mean anyone else needs to follow, and doesn't seem likely to repeat itself.Don't blame me, I didn't set the market
I didn't love the OKC trade last year but....they had the assets, had a guy they targeted fall and pulled the trigger to get it done. I can respect that tbh.
Spurs could find themselves in a similar spot and I trust this FO with drafting more than anything else they do. They're loaded with firsts for the next several years that they can't all use tbh, I wouldn't fault them for dipping into the warchest and taking a chance if they think it's worth it.
Last edited by Ariel; 05-27-2023 at 06:45 PM.
Hard disagree if you look at how the protections slide back and they have an extended time horizon to convey. If anything, I'd argue the DET and WAS picks are about equal to the CHA pick. The TOR pick is certainly more valuable though.
Can a team add protections to further trade a protected pick? Is that allowed? Ex: Could the Spurs trade the TOR pick, protected 7-14?
Yeah, retrospectively, that was a really bad trade for CHA. No idea what went through their mind. Oh wait, MJ...
Is this the trade involving Duren? There was some cap-saving measures for both CHA and NYK. It's really confusing and unclear. I think the Knicks got enough space to later sign Brunson. I think Charlotte might have cleared enough to resign Bridges?
For some reason I have a strong feeling the Spurs may be targeting Ausar Thompson with the 2nd first rounder. TimVP’s info on them being real high on the twins. He could be an elite 3 a couple of years from now. A front court of Wemby, Sochan, and Ausar would be an absolute defensive nightmare for opponents.
yeah, it was a weird 3-way deal (or 2 2-ways?): https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2022/06/...o-pistons.html
Basically:
Charlotte sends #13 (Duren) to NY for Denver's '23 1st rounder + 4 second rounders
NY then sends #13 (Duren) to Detroit for Milwaukee's '25 1st rounder + Kemba Walker's contract
The important part of the deal (what sets the price of the pick) is what Charlotte got for #13, the rest is NY's messy dealings to make room for Brunson. Awful deal, but goes to show that you can't use a single deal as a universal measure of value, it depends on what teams need (and how badly), and that's different in every case. As a rule of thumb, I wouldn't expect most teams to take a projected late first + 4 2nds for a lottery pick, just like I wouldn't expect most teams to part with 3 1sts... somewhere in between (2 picks, pick + salary dump, pick + rotation player, etc) sounds more representative IMO.
It’s that one. Still a head scratcher from the CHA perspective. If it was Bridges, they had his rights so not sure why they needed the space for
Our CHA pick can never convey better than #15. The protections on the Detroit pick drop to 1-9 by 2027. The Washington pick protections drop to 1-8 by 2026. Those will both likely convey, although it will take a while.
DET pick is also top 13 protected in 2025, which could be about the time Cade and crew should be popping.
WAS just loves being in that 8-11 seed range, so if they are play-in team next year the pick could convey (top 12 protected).
DAL pick is top 10 next year and they are highly highly motivated to be good next year.
Bottom line there is a chance all of these fall outside the lotto (Dallas most likely).
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