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Fascinating discussion about the new upcoming CBA and how it may affect player signings and team building on the Bill Simmons show. Lots of talk about the Spurs and small markets.
Their conclusions may be wrong about how the different ceilings affect the NBA middle class. They believe under the new rules teams will be able to afford two stars and then everyone else will get chump change. You could also build the team around only one star, like the spurs would do, and then they can afford more complementary players than other teams. Anyway, worth a watch, or at least a discussion as far as how this affects us moving forward.
https://youtu.be/AZU5ZzWkL0g
(I’m a disgruntled GEN Xer, so, if someone else can find a way to embed this video, much appreciated.)
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Last edited by Dex; 05-29-2023 at 09:49 AM.
Sports Illustrated article giving some breakdown of the new CBA:
https://www.si.com/nba/2023/04/04/ta...ive-bargaining
I disagree that this hurts “homegrown” teams. If you’re a team trying to keep all 15 guys on your roster, sure. But, for a team like the Spurs who are great at finding talent from the rubble, this will separate them from the rest. This is where the emphasis on their Austin Spurs program comes off as genius. Once they find their second star or second and third star, it’s all about cycling through talent from anywhere they can find it for the rest of the roster… and the Spurs are one of the best at that.
Also, once the Spurs start winning again, don’t be surprised when they start drafting 22 year olds with low ceilings, but high floors. They will need immediate production from their picks, while at the same time they will be prepared to let them go at the end of their rookie contracts. Of course, they will try to negotiate with them first to take below market contracts…
I feel like it actually forces teams to build more in the Spurs model.
Okay, you want two/three stars to compete? Work with your stars to accept team friendly contracts so that you can afford to put talent around them. Owners with bottomless pockets like Balmer or Lacob can't just continue to try to buy les.
Tim, Tony, and Manu (at different points in their careers) all took less than market value because they cared about winning. That allowed the Spurs to bring in guys like Barry and Horry and Bobo.
The main problem is going to be that the star players of the league are now used to getting paid, and it's obviously a compe ion of who can bring in the biggest contract. But good luck winning les if you insist on $50M a year, while players 4-10 are getting paid $4M because that's all the team can reasonably afford without getting highly penalized (both through luxury tax and now FA/trade restrictions)
I do agree with Bill Simmons on this...it's crazy this is going immediately into effect without any sort of weaning period. As he stated, teams like the Warrior, Clippers, and Celtics are basically ed on their cap situation very quickly.
If in the past it was easy for us to see which teams have bad front offices, then this will make it even easier. If OKC decides their max guys are SGA, Chet, Jalen and hypothetically Jalen’s output doesn’t justify being a max guy… then they lose their other good players as a result. This will test teams on how attached they are to their players and put more risk into losing the good ones. If they don’t re-up Jalen, then that either becomes a sign and trade or he becomes unrestricted… and then a team being opportunistic gets that player. It’s a big domino effect.
To build like the Spurs, you have to be an ace in other areas than just roster construction. So good luck to those teams.
For all the talk about the Spurs “not picking a direction” for half a decade, they are certainly prepared for this situation. Almost too prepared. Cap space flexibility, picks, young core familiar already with the system…
The question is how friendly is Keldon’s contract (and Vassell’s if he gets around the same amount), if we hypothetically already had two or three max players on the books right now? Would they actually be burdensome? Cap experts?
The answer to that will tell us how the rest of the roster might be shaped once we get our one or two other stars…
Two stars won't be impossible. People forget that the luxury tax isn't the cap and that the second apron is well above that. Once they get to the end of their careers like Lillard or Lebron, yes you can't afford to keep two or three together. But through their second and most third contracts, you can keep a couple of guys. Then you're running into more than a decade, and I don't feel sorry that you can't keep max players that long.
Remember that most teams are under the second apron right now. You don't have to build like the Spurs to do that. This isn't to force teams to be ascetic; it's to prevent rich owners like Balmer to use their stolen money to try to break the system by spending their way out of bad GMing. It's to force teams like the Warriors to actually play by the spirit of the NBA rules and not just throw out max after max to keep guys together long after the currents of the league should've pulled them apart.
They'd make great trade fodder for future draft picks.
I mean, isn't it designed to do away with super teams? It sounds like it's doing that precisely. Whether it works out is another matter.
And it sounds like Simmons is worried about Jaylen Brown getting to be paid the most of any player in the league this summer, next to Tatum. He's usually only worried about the Celtics.
This may hurt teams who get into the high lottery and don't land stars. An Ayton becomes a problem - he already is - and if you get multiple non-stars really high, you will struggle.
But two max slots adds up quick though. And then rounding out the roster with 3 quality 18M-22M guys gets tougher. Boston for example, could they afford to keep White, Brodgon, Smart if they also give Brown the max? Seems like something will have to give: either the stars accept taking less than their full maxes or the middle class get squeezed. And who wants to be the GM to tell Beal, Dame, etc that they’re not really worth the full max?
I’m not crying for these guys, just saying it could make roster construction “interesting” in the future.
spurs are in a good place, since it’s seems like building through the draft will be even more desirable. Also, I would front load the out of all contracts like Devon’s to the extent the cap situation allows.
Kinda puts a hurt on ring chasing. I like it. Forces teams to invest more in scouting talent if they want rookies contracts for a few years. Even if a team draft 4 future 50 million a year contract players, they’l be under the cap to trade for future long term first rounders if they cant afford those contracts.
Of course, the new TV contract is expected to go from the current $2.7 billion to around $6billion per year. It will kick in in 2027 I believe. It will ultimately increase the cap by $60 million per team. It seems to make sense to lock guys who you consider part of your long term core to 5 year deals.
What Chris Paul did in forcing the players to accept a very top-heavy salary structure that benefits players like him is going to have a pretty massive impact. You're going to still see thos players want max dollars and it'll hurt a lot of teams. Bradley Beale types.
Jaylen Brown is not worth the max though. At least not the super max. Boston would be stupid to give him that type of money. There's a clear separation between him and Tatum. Tatum leads him by like 5.0 in winshares.
Now I'm with you on the frontloading. The Spurs should keep doing that as much as possible with every contract. Also the ATL picks will come in handy, hence I don't want to trade them. To add lottery talent to a contender will be super valuable financially.
so that means that middle class players will get screwed for the next 4 years. And in 2027 when the new salary cap kicks in teams will be able to pay them again
You may see some buyouts or trades of high end contracts because the contract pushes the team over the apron. The new rules will make teams evaluate how much a player is really worth. For example, Ben Simmons, his value is way down but do you really want to keep him at his salary ? The Nets may not be that close to the apron, but a few more signings may push them over a cap due to Simmons expensive contract. The question then becomes, how you get rid of him and who will want him at his price ? That situation will probably come up more than once this coming season.
I don't think buyouts help. The salary still hits the cap numbers regardless of whether you give them money to go away.
Reading the comments section on Youtube is usually a mistake, but there was a good one on that Simmons podcast.
Second round picks could become much more valuable to second apron teams as a way to fill in the back end of the roster. The podcast even talked about the possibility of adding a third round to the draft, but I think that can only work if the G-League contract situation is overhauled. imo each NBA team would have to have its own fully controlled G-League affiliate (iirc only 28 NBA teams have one right now?) and perhaps a single salary and roster cap for the big club and G-League club combined. Though with basketball being such a top-heavy sport, players at the end of the big league roster/top of the G-League roster don't have a lot of value anyway.You have it backwards. All of the punishments for the 2nd apron are to stop teams from trading for or signing new talent from outside the org. This effectively makes drafting talent and keeping it MORE important, because drafting is the only thing that isn’t restricted by the apron.Those teams are penalized the least here.
when it comes to finding role players out of nowhere we're the best in the league tbh
Later draft picks in the first round are also valuable, of course. A Branham is automatically on a great salary. Getting Sochan at nine is much better than Jabari Smooth at three.
The first thing that comes to mind is Vassell's rookie extension. I think this probably puts a lower cap on what the Spurs would have been willing to offer otherwise, with the most beneficial outcome being a decreasing structure like Keldon's. If Vassell isn't willing to sign a team friendly deal I wouldn't be shocked if he's not extended and/or traded at draft night or by the trade deadline at the latest.
On the plus side, with this kind of salary structure you want to make sure you get your money's worth from your top paid players, which is why getting having a top heavy roster (1 superstar and maybe a couple borderline stars) will likely be the way to go, rather than a flatter talent distribution. Case in point, a team like Detroit, Houston, Cleveland without a clear top 10 player now or in the future will find it very hard to put together a long term contender as is, unless they make changes. Also if Chet pans out, OKC will be in trouble trying to retain him, Giddey and Jalen Williams with SGA already on the roster. Jordan Poole and/or Klay Thompson will likely get dumped by Golden State, and I wouldn't be surprised if Jaylen Brown is dealt sooner rather than later (ideally for someone like Mikal Bridges, signed for cheap for 3 more years). I sense several big names will be on the move pretty soon.
I believe the cap increase is going to be phased in instead of hitting all at once this time.
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