The Costs of Moving Up (or Into) the First Round

[Mr. Body]

Sorry I thought you had something more interesting to say than all rich people are s.

I say a lot of things. You get to pick and chose if you want.

And yeah, pretty much all of our problems are due to rich s. That's without question.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I say a lot of things. You get to pick and chose if you want.

And yeah, pretty much all of our problems are due to rich s. That's without question.

As a class sure but this family cedes control to experts and do little more than fist pump at press events and games. Great owners.

[Mr. Body]

As a class sure but this family cedes control to experts and do little more than fist pump at press events and games. Great owners.

Jesus Christ.

[rankingtear]

Do whatever you have to to get Bilal and Anthony Black to join Wemby in this draft. Next years draft not as strong so we don’t need two frps next year.

wemby
sochan
bilal
black
Vassel

That is a young core that could lead to another dynasty.

add in the Atlanta picks and Boston swap for three other stars.

all other picks and Keldon are at your disposal to make this happen.

This is some 2k type rebuild.

[R. DeMurre]

Its so interesting this time of year to go back, read the old draft articles, and look at the evolution of picks and how much good fortune plays into the reputations, good or bad, of talent evaluators... Way back in 2007, Sam Presti really lucked out when his team got the #2 pick in the draft, and chose Durant after Portland took Oden. But according to most reports, Presti-- like most others that year-- had Oden #1 on his draft board. If Seattle had landed the #1 pick, people would be hammering Presti as the guy who picked Oden rather than the brilliant guy who took Durant. To judge scouting, you really have to get the full picture of moves over a good period of time, and eventually it's like rating good three point shooters vs mediocre three point shooters-- the difference is pretty subtle, like 38.5% vs 35.7%. Most people, when they debate scouting, tend to rely on one or two results as some sort of proof of or lack of insight, but that's generally not a fair way to judge it. My favorite discussion recently is the debate about productive "High Floor" guys vs less productive "High Ceiling" players, and the opinion that in the long run the high floor guys probably give a greater return. Golden State is the team many talk about, after taking Wiseman and Kuminga over guys like Haliburton and Franz Wagner. Really interesting perspective in my opinion. Of course, the Spurs just went all in on a 14% bet and won, and that has the potential to work out nicely for them. But the high floor approach is intriguing, and one of the reasons I like them having two early second round picks, where possibly guys like Jamie Jaquez and Podz could be available.

[exstatic]

Its so interesting this time of year to go back, read the old draft articles, and look at the evolution of picks and how much good fortune plays into the reputations, good or bad, of talent evaluators... Way back in 2007, Sam Presti really lucked out when his team got the #2 pick in the draft, and chose Durant after Portland took Oden. But according to most reports, Presti-- like most others that year-- had Oden #1 on his draft board. If Seattle had landed the #1 pick, people would be hammering Presti as the guy who picked Oden rather than the brilliant guy who took Durant. To judge scouting, you really have to get the full picture of moves over a good period of time, and eventually it's like rating good three point shooters vs mediocre three point shooters-- the difference is pretty subtle, like 38.5% vs 35.7%. Most people, when they debate scouting, tend to rely on one or two results as some sort of proof of or lack of insight, but that's generally not a fair way to judge it. My favorite discussion recently is the debate about productive "High Floor" guys vs less productive "High Ceiling" players, and the opinion that in the long run the high floor guys probably give a greater return. Golden State is the team many talk about, after taking Wiseman and Kuminga over guys like Haliburton and Franz Wagner. Really interesting perspective in my opinion. Of course, the Spurs just went all in on a 14% bet and won, and that has the potential to work out nicely for them. But the high floor approach is intriguing, and one of the reasons I like them having two early second round picks, where possibly guys like Jamie Jaquez and Podz could be available.

With #2 (Wiseman), they could have picked LaMelo. There rebuild could have nearly been done. Supposedly, Lacob overruled the GM on those two picks (Wiseman, Kuminga), because his son wanted those players.

[RC_Drunkford]

With #2 (Wiseman), they could have picked LaMelo. There rebuild could have nearly been done. Supposedly, Lacob overruled the GM on those two picks (Wiseman, Kuminga), because his son wanted those players.

love it since they were apparently light years ahead of everybody

[R. DeMurre]

With #2 (Wiseman), they could have picked LaMelo. There rebuild could have nearly been done. Supposedly, Lacob overruled the GM on those two picks (Wiseman, Kuminga), because his son wanted those players.

Yeah, that's the rumor, although supposedly Myers was pretty high on Wiseman too. I doubt it will happen, but it'd be cool to hear the real story from Myers himself now that he's not with them anymore.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Jesus Christ.

Yes, my child.

[rjv]

love it since they were apparently light years ahead of everybody

that's the moment that pushed me over the brink with the warriors and put me all in on my hatred for them. it was just the pinnacle of their arrogance.

[baseline bum]

I agree 100%. We have to move some of these picks no matter what we do at some point. Why not go after a potential star in scoot. Historically if the picks aren’t in the top 3 the chances of drafting a star go down significantly. Only assets not on the table are the Hawks picks IMO. Time to take the bat out and take a swing. If you miss we still have a solid core and assets to not be set back that much.

The Hawks picks are the assets you'd need to move into the top 3. You're not getting in there with the Chicago pick, the Toronto pick, and the Charlotte pick that could convert into two seconds. Not a chance. Personally I'd hold out to combine most of those picks to trade for a disgruntled star like an Anthony Davis or Kevin Durant situation. Maybe you'd pull Doncic if he gets sick of being a one man team. Or Embiid. Or you luck out an Giannis wants out if he thinks Milwaukee is on the down slope. Sadly no moves like that available this summer, as the biggest stars that could be had with that kind of offer now are Lillard who is too old for the Spurs timeline and Towns who isn't worth that kind of draft capital IMO.

[baseline bum]

With #2 (Wiseman), they could have picked LaMelo. There rebuild could have nearly been done. Supposedly, Lacob overruled the GM on those two picks (Wiseman, Kuminga), because his son wanted those players.

Wow do you have a link? That sounds like it would be a hilarious read if so.

[BacktoBasics]

The Hawks picks are the assets you'd need to move into the top 3. You're not getting in there with the Chicago pick, the Toronto pick, and the Charlotte pick that could convert into two seconds. Not a chance. Personally I'd hold out to combine most of those picks to trade for a disgruntled star like an Anthony Davis or Kevin Durant situation. Maybe you'd pull Doncic if he gets sick of being a one man team. Or Embiid. Or you luck out an Giannis wants out if he thinks Milwaukee is on the down slope. Sadly no moves like that available this summer, as the biggest stars that could be had with that kind of offer now are Lillard who is too old for the Spurs timeline and Towns who isn't worth that kind of draft capital IMO.

How often do we see disgruntled stars that demand a bag end up finding success on their new team? I know Davis asterisked a chip but for the most part disgruntled stars aren’t worth the bag they’re moved for.

[Kevin]

How often do we see disgruntled stars that demand a bag end up finding success on their new team? I know Davis asterisked a chip but for the most part disgruntled stars aren’t worth the bag they’re moved for.

Kawhi Leonard, KG and Ray Allen, Kevin Love, and Anthony Davis as you mentioned.

Nets struck out on ton of stars over the years, Melo never did anything with the Knicks and the Hawks Murray trade already looks bad.

Trading away a bunch of assets for a star doesn't equate to success but it can and it does work.

[scott]

Its so interesting this time of year to go back, read the old draft articles, and look at the evolution of picks and how much good fortune plays into the reputations, good or bad, of talent evaluators... Way back in 2007, Sam Presti really lucked out when his team got the #2 pick in the draft, and chose Durant after Portland took Oden. But according to most reports, Presti-- like most others that year-- had Oden #1 on his draft board. If Seattle had landed the #1 pick, people would be hammering Presti as the guy who picked Oden rather than the brilliant guy who took Durant. To judge scouting, you really have to get the full picture of moves over a good period of time, and eventually it's like rating good three point shooters vs mediocre three point shooters-- the difference is pretty subtle, like 38.5% vs 35.7%. Most people, when they debate scouting, tend to rely on one or two results as some sort of proof of or lack of insight, but that's generally not a fair way to judge it. My favorite discussion recently is the debate about productive "High Floor" guys vs less productive "High Ceiling" players, and the opinion that in the long run the high floor guys probably give a greater return. Golden State is the team many talk about, after taking Wiseman and Kuminga over guys like Haliburton and Franz Wagner. Really interesting perspective in my opinion. Of course, the Spurs just went all in on a 14% bet and won, and that has the potential to work out nicely for them. But the high floor approach is intriguing, and one of the reasons I like them having two early second round picks, where possibly guys like Jamie Jaquez and Podz could be available.

I love this topic and think that high ceiling, low floor prospects are definitely overrated by teams and GMs.

This game up in a discussion about Anthony Black - who sounds to me every time someone describes him like Derrick White. Derrick White would have never been picked #8 (where Black is currently projected) because of his age, but he has outperformed the majority of #8 picks of the last 20 years. Age is correlated with ceiling and growth potential in the eyes of most, just as a function of how everyone is chasing franchise altering players like Giannis or Kawhi or Jokic. A GM will get lambasted for picking Derrick White with the #8 pick, but most of the time he would have been better off doing so.

Taking some high floor guys definitely pays off, I'm a fan.

[baseline bum]

How often do we see disgruntled stars that demand a bag end up finding success on their new team? I know Davis asterisked a chip but for the most part disgruntled stars aren’t worth the bag they’re moved for.

Davis winning a le is definitely one. Boston trading Al Jefferson and picks for Garnett won them a le and then they were a razor thin margin from a second. If it wasn't for Garnett getting hurt they would have probably repeated in 09. Shaq to Miami was another raging success with the 06 le and they were really close to a Finals berth in 05. Mute Cancer to Toronto too. Though Kareem to LA is of course the most famous one.

[baseline bum]

Kawhi Leonard, KG and Ray Allen, Kevin Love, and Anthony Davis as you mentioned.

Nets struck out on ton of stars over the years, Melo never did anything with the Knicks and the Hawks Murray trade already looks bad.

Trading away a bunch of assets for a star doesn't equate to success but it can and it does work.

Shaq and Kareem too.

[BacktoBasics]

Kawhi Leonard, KG and Ray Allen, Kevin Love, and Anthony Davis as you mentioned.

Nets struck out on ton of stars over the years, Melo never did anything with the Knicks and the Hawks Murray trade already looks bad.

Trading away a bunch of assets for a star doesn't equate to success but it can and it does work.

Kawhi bailed on them. I think we have more trade failures than successes with disgruntled players. Especially involving any small market.

[RC_Drunkford]

that's the moment that pushed me over the brink with the warriors and put me all in on my hatred for them. it was just the pinnacle of their arrogance.

the only reason he said that was cause they were building the new arena so they could afford to pay luxury tax. But KD didn't stay and the CBA just changed

Meanwhile the Spurs were playing 4D-chess, building the best practice facility in the league, collecting assets, stacking young talent and creating cap room while preparing for the #1 pick. So who's really ahead of everybody here?

[TD 21]

How often do we see disgruntled stars that demand a bag end up finding success on their new team? I know Davis asterisked a chip but for the most part disgruntled stars aren’t worth the bag they’re moved for.

Spurs fans hatred for all things Lakers has always clouded the judgement on this. Somehow, the '99 championship is not an asterisk despite being different from a usual season, but the '20 championship is.

I already know you're going to respond with something like: at least '99 involved fans and travel. I get it. But the crux is they were different, not how.

The only asterisk championships are '17-'19.

[BacktoBasics]

Spurs fans hatred for all things Lakers has always clouded the judgement on this. Somehow, the '99 championship is not an asterisk despite being different from a usual season, but the '20 championship is.

I already know you're going to respond with something like: at least '99 involved fans and travel. I get it. But the crux is they were different, not how.

The only asterisk championships are '17-'19.

The only way Davis plays up to his potential is to be locked up in a bubble where he’s forced to concentrate on one thing.

[Mr. Body]

The 2000 bubble/Disney 'championship' was during the height of a pandemic when most players were completely checked out and worried about their families and their own safety. NBA shouldn't have even bothered, weak-ass whatever it was.

[Mr. Body]

Word is that Cason Wallace has pulled out of a workout with the Hawks tomorrow (15), suggesting he has a promise earlier. I think he might have only worked out for the Wizards and Raptors so far.

[talkspurs]

Davis winning a le is definitely one. Boston trading Al Jefferson and picks for Garnett won them a le and then they were a razor thin margin from a second. If it wasn't for Garnett getting hurt they would have probably repeated in 09. Shaq to Miami was another raging success with the 06 le and they were really close to a Finals berth in 05. Mute Cancer to Toronto too. Though Kareem to LA is of course the most famous one.

So my question would be is it worth trading a whole bunch of picks and young players to get a shot at winning 1 championship. You looks at teams that have been compe ive the last few decades they have been built. Spurs, Milwaukee, GS. Lakers (koby/Shaqu), Phily, Miami, Boston. They have added some players but for the most part they were built. Milwaukee would be the team I think of that added the biggest player in holiday. He was thought of as a good player when he was traded for not a great player and I dont remember him being disgruntled but more NO wanting to move on.

[TD 21]

The only way Davis plays up to his potential is to be locked up in a bubble where he’s forced to concentrate on one thing.

That doesn't have anything to do with what I said, but it's a perfect example of media narrative usurping reality . . .

Probably the most inexplicably, incessantly criticized player extant. I don't get it for the life of me. More likeable than most of the divas today, often plays hurt and has tried to play through injuries, is willing to do the non glamor work and defer offensively (although the latter has become an issue) and generally raises his game in the playoffs.

Of course his precious ppg fluctuates on a team with four perimeter creators, naturally plummeting his usage rate. He's also not back to the basket based and any big man who isn't can't be the hub of an offense on a championship contender. That makes him more Robinson and Garnett than Olajuwon and Duncan. What a crime.