The Value of Future FRPs

[scott]

This came up in another thread, and I had been thinking of starting a thread ranking the Spurs future picks, but I'm not as illustrious as some of the other posters on this board and I wasn't sure anyone cared. But since it came up...

Here is how I would rank all of our yet-to-be-taken FRPs, WITHOUT fully considering the time value of picks (which I think is very real. A pick this year is worth more than a pick next year with equal protections and so on), though I did factor in some time element. What I didn't consider is trying to crystal ball how good teams will be in the future. So for now, a Spurs unprotected FRP is worth more than a ATL unprotected FRP because the Spurs are currently a lotto team and ATL is currently a play-in team. I only went out to 2028.

1. 2023 Spurs FRP (duh. It's #1 overall)
2. 2026 Spurs FRP w/ ATL pick Swap (this is the most valuable because it has the added benefit of being able to be high based on the outcome of two teams, not just one)
3. 2028 Spurs FRP w/ BOS pick Swap (this is slightly less valuable than the 2026 pick with the ATL swap, because BOS's swap is protected for the #1 overall pick)
4. 2024 Spurs FRP
5. 2025 Spurs FRP
6. 2025 Hawks FRP
7. 2027 Spurs FRP
8. 2027 Hawks FRP
9. 2024 Raptors FRP (Top 6 protected)
10. 2025 Bull FRP (Top 10 Protected)
11. 2024 Hornets FRP (Lotto Protected)

Aside from perhaps some shuffling based on time value of picks, would you rank these any differently?

[bluebellmaniac]

This came up in another thread, and I had been thinking of starting a thread ranking the Spurs future picks, but I'm not as illustrious as some of the other posters on this board and I wasn't sure anyone cared. But since it came up...

Here is how I would rank all of our yet-to-be-taken FRPs, WITHOUT fully considering the time value of picks (which I think is very real. A pick this year is worth more than a pick next year with equal protections and so on), though I did factor in some time element. What I didn't consider is trying to crystal ball how good teams will be in the future. So for now, a Spurs unprotected FRP is worth more than a ATL unprotected FRP because the Spurs are currently a lotto team and ATL is currently a play-in team. I only went out to 2028.

1. 2023 Spurs FRP (duh. It's #1 overall)
2. 2026 Spurs FRP w/ ATL pick Swap (this is the most valuable because it has the added benefit of being able to be high based on the outcome of two teams, not just one)
3. 2028 Spurs FRP w/ BOS pick Swap (this is slightly less valuable than the 2026 pick with the ATL swap, because BOS's swap is protected for the #1 overall pick)
4. 2024 Spurs FRP
5. 2025 Spurs FRP
6. 2025 Hawks FRP
7. 2027 Spurs FRP
8. 2027 Hawks FRP
9. 2024 Raptors FRP (Top 6 protected)
10. 2025 Bull FRP (Top 10 Protected)
11. 2024 Hornets FRP (Lotto Protected)

Aside from perhaps some shuffling based on time value of picks, would you rank these any differently?

Dang good reasoning. Hard to argue with that without projecting how good teams will be.

[BackHome]

I think 2024 is going to be a good year for us as far as draft picks....

[BacktoBasics]

That Raptor pick next year has potential to be something interesting if they lose FVV.

[CGD]

That Raptor pick next year has potential to be something interesting if they lose FVV.

Good thread. Agree on TOR and they move Pascal too. I also think if CHI pick moves to 2026 and top 8 protected, I might move it above any Spurs natural pick after 2025 given the opposite trajectories of the teams (as we think of them today).

[rascal]

Move the Hawks picks ahead of the spurs picks in value after 2024.

Higher probability the Spurs will be better than the Hawks after next year.

[DPG21920]

AtL non protected picks too low imo. Getting firsts is hard as we saw at this last trade deadline. Teams giving up 5 2nds instead of 1 protected first for example. Unprotected picks from teams in flux are insanely valuable even if we know the outcome could very well be pick 15-25 too.

[scott]

AtL non protected picks too low imo. Getting firsts is hard as we saw at this last trade deadline. Teams giving up 5 2nds instead of 1 protected first for example. Unprotected picks from teams in flux are insanely valuable even if we know the outcome could very well be pick 15-25 too.

The only reason the Hawks unprotected picks are so low is because of the caveat I laid out that I'm not trying to look into the crystal ball and guess how good teams will be relative to one another in the future. You are correct however, that if Wemby pans out like the other FRPs in our history and the Hawks continue on the direction the are currently on, then I would move them to #4/5 or #5/6 on this list (still a case to be made that our own pick in 2024 might be pretty juicy, though I honestly think we could be a play-in team in Wemby's rookie season). The Spurs FRPs with swaps attached remain the most valuable in my opinion for now.

[scott]

I'm not going to take the time to line up the SRPs we have in the horizon, but I think someone else definitely should

[CGD]

I'm not going to take the time to line up the SRPs we have in the horizon, but I think someone else definitely should

Here they are (unranked and not including spurs natural picks)!

2023 SRP Toronto (#44)
2024 SRP (best of NO/CHI)
2024 SRP Lakers
2025 SRP Chicago
2025 SRP Toronto
2026 SRP (complicated protections)
2026 SRP (worse POR/NOLA)
2027 SRP (complicated protections)
2028 SRP Miami
2028 SRP Denver (protected for 31-33)
2028 SRP New Orleans
2029 SRP New Orleans

[DPG21920]

The only reason the Hawks unprotected picks are so low is because of the caveat I laid out that I'm not trying to look into the crystal ball and guess how good teams will be relative to one another in the future. You are correct however, that if Wemby pans out like the other FRPs in our history and the Hawks continue on the direction the are currently on, then I would move them to #4/5 or #5/6 on this list (still a case to be made that our own pick in 2024 might be pretty juicy, though I honestly think we could be a play-in team in Wemby's rookie season). The Spurs FRPs with swaps attached remain the most valuable in my opinion for now.

I would agree in the context of their importance to the Spurs….your own pick are always the most valuable to you for good reason; means you control your own destiny. But I think to other teams it may be viewed a bit differently and we know the Spurs aren’t trading any of their picks without protections like we’ve seen others do recently. That trend seems dead seeing how it has not worked out well for basically anyone who has given those up.

*Caveat: If Luka or someone like that becomes available, Spurs and others would give those up for sure.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Great thread scott.

I like it that you put the 2026 pick swap that high because that draft is supposed to be insanely good (Boozer, Flagg, etc.). Obviously it's very early and perhaps some of the players might reclassify but generally, right now, I'd say the Atlanta 2025-207 pick stash would have the most value in a trade and with some luck it might give the Spurs a second star to add to a hopefully emerging MVP candidate should they decide to build slowly through the draft.

[Teamduncan21]

AtL non protected picks too low imo. Getting firsts is hard as we saw at this last trade deadline. Teams giving up 5 2nds instead of 1 protected first for example. Unprotected picks from teams in flux are insanely valuable even if we know the outcome could very well be pick 15-25 too.

I thought about that too. But then it's also about control.
Spurs can tank and make that pick high as necessary. But we can't tell hawks to tank for us

[thiste]

You could take into account that 2024 is projected to be a very weak class.

[DPG21920]

I thought about that too. But then it's also about control.
Spurs can tank and make that pick high as necessary. But we can't tell hawks to tank for us

Agree - from SA perspective that’s true and why SA picks are more valuable to SA. But to other teams? Would you rather have an unprotected ATL pick in the future or what would likely be a protected Spurs pick since I doubt teams are giving up unprotected picks any more unless it’s for a Luka type.

[exstatic]

I thought about that too. But then it's also about control.
Spurs can tank and make that pick high as necessary. But we can't tell hawks to tank for us

We literally can't, with a healthy Wemby.

[exstatic]

Great thread scott.

I like it that you put the 2026 pick swap that high because that draft is supposed to be insanely good (Boozer, Flagg, etc.). Obviously it's very early and perhaps some of the players might reclassify but generally, right now, I'd say the Atlanta 2025-207 pick stash would have the most value in a trade and with some luck it might give the Spurs a second star to add to a hopefully emerging MVP candidate should they decide to build slowly through the draft.

Isn't that the Bryce James draft, as well? He's already grown 3" taller than Bronny, and may not be done, and retained his guard skills in a wing body. I don't give a crap about Bronny, and he'll be lucky to get a second contract in the NBA, but Bryce could be something. LeBron calls him the best shooter in the family.

[Mr. Body]

We're never going to get rid of the James family, are we?

[exstatic]

We're never going to get rid of the James family, are we?

I don't see Bronny lasting in the league, but Bryce has piqued my interest. I also like that he was a late bloomer, and not showered with adulation from the time he was in the crib. He actually had to play JV ball at Sierra Canyon.

[CorrectCrusader]

I thought about that too. But then it's also about control.
Spurs can tank and make that pick high as necessary. But we can't tell hawks to tank for us

Y'all are gonna be surprised how good Wemby will look in the NBA. I'm projecting a Luka rookie level impact for Wemby year one.

[Mr. Body]

Y'all are gonna be surprised how good Wemby will look in the NBA. I'm projecting a Luka rookie level impact for Wemby year one.

I would take Wembanyama #1 solely for defense, and that's going to translate immediately.

[CorrectCrusader]

I would take Wembanyama #1 solely for defense, and that's going to translate immediately.

He's going to be a monster, that's for sure.

[montgod]

Great thread scott.

I like it that you put the 2026 pick swap that high because that draft is supposed to be insanely good (Boozer, Flagg, etc.). Obviously it's very early and perhaps some of the players might reclassify but generally, right now, I'd say the Atlanta 2025-207 pick stash would have the most value in a trade and with some luck it might give the Spurs a second star to add to a hopefully emerging MVP candidate should they decide to build slowly through the draft.

Good take and these were my thoughts as well. Whoever is projected to come out or the class as a whole should factor into if that year's pick(s) are more valuable than other years. Since we don't have all that info, I also read 2024 is said to be a weaker draft class so why not use those for a possible trade up this year.

[Mr. Body]

"Weak draft class" almost always refers to top level players, the ones you can see a couple years out. (Although this isn't foolproof.) The rest of the draft can never be known until the college or G-League games are played. Every year, well-regarded players tank and players barely on the radar shine. But yes next year's draft is seen as weak. My point is that this is premature.

[couchman]

Great topic thanks!
The value of Spurs va ATL is debatable.
On one hand we can tank again if cir stances require and control our own picks.
OTOH the ATL picks can give us a shot at the lottery, even if we are a playoff team.
A lot depends on how soon we can become a compe ive team.
My guess is that by 2026 draft the ATL picks will be better and maybe even by 2025.