Latest Intel as Spurs Head into the Victor Wembanyama Draft

[scott]

Taking timvp's suggestion of targets as writ - admittedly could be smokescreen -- Black probably goes top 10 and the Spurs can't get there.

Kobe Bufkin may be the perfect complement for this roster. A backcourt of Vassell and Bufkin could be lethal. I do believe there's a jam in the lottery, otherwise Bufkin should be much higher than he currently is projected. I have the feeling he's eventually a top 5 player in this draft. He's not quite Haliburton, but he's that sort of player. Reminds me of Devin Harris a bit, too, another Big 10 player, and one who shredded the Spurs time and again in Dallas. (Harris went 5th in a top-heavy draft.)

Hard to tell where the target spots are. Orlando at 11, the 13, 14, 15... Lakers may want to get rid of their 17, Miami at 18. These teams may not even keep their picks and move up, as NOP wants to do with 14. The Spurs would need to get one of these solely using draft capital and maybe taking on salary.

But I strongly believe, for what it's worth, that here's a smart, heady, highly compe ive player with really good shooting numbers, ability to facilitate, and a good defender. I'd hate to see any of our rivals get him - I think he's incredibly undervalued right now. But a team could get wise and grab him. Smart teams like Toronto, Miami, etc.

Was listening to the first episode of Matthew Tynan's (covers the Spurs for the Athletic) new podcast on the Spurs called Small Market Bias. Certainly not saying he is the expert to subordinate all other thought... but as far as Spurs podcasts go, he's already my favorite. They discussed possible trade up partners in 11-20 range and broke down the targets as so:

11. Orlando definitely in play, but more likely want to use 11 to try to move up from 6.
12. OKC trying to move up, not out, unlikely trade partner
13. Toronto probably done trading with us for now (though I'm not sure why... but doesn't seem like they'd necessary want to move out... maybe for their own pick back?)
14. NO definitely could be in play
15. Atlanta probably not trading with us for now
16. Definite target
17. If the Lakers would actually trade with us and us with them, it would make sense. LA may prefer to add some assets for the post-Bron or to make some trades for players now. Little use for a rookie
18. Miami definitely a possibility - already at the tax line with like 5 players. Taking Lowry could be the way to get #18?
19. Could definitely be a target
20. Probably not

I don't necessarily have an opinion on these thoughts, just adding them into the database. And I do recommend this new Podcast. Like I said, already my favorite Spurs podcast (Locked on Spurs is pretty lame, SSPN is alright).

[pad300]

We can't do that when they waive him. The drop dead date is 28 June, meaning we can only use this year's remaining cap room, and we don't have enough.

I don't think the suns have waived CP yet, they are waiting, hoping someone makes them a deal. I think there is one that works.

Khem Birch for CP + ??? ; I believe if we send Khem back, we have enough space to absorb CP.

Saves the suns ~$22M in lux tax this year (22/23) and pulls the Spurs above the salary minimum. Birch is less of a cap hit for them next year (than a waived CP), and thus saves them more tax and gives them more salary room to rework their roster (and if he doesn't play at all and they get an injury exception for him, they save even more tax and get more salary space to reshape their roster).

SAS is on the hook for CP's full ~$30M next year, but the year after is fully unguaranteed.

[Mr. Body]

Was listening to the first episode of Matthew Tynan's (covers the Spurs for the Athletic) new podcast on the Spurs called Small Market Bias. Certainly not saying he is the expert to subordinate all other thought... but as far as Spurs podcasts go, he's already my favorite. They discussed possible trade up partners in 11-20 range and broke down the targets as so:

11. Orlando definitely in play, but more likely want to use 11 to try to move up from 6.
12. OKC trying to move up, not out, unlikely trade partner
13. Toronto probably done trading with us for now (though I'm not sure why... but doesn't seem like they'd necessary want to move out... maybe for their own pick back?)
14. NO definitely could be in play
15. Atlanta probably not trading with us for now
16. Definite target
17. If the Lakers would actually trade with us and us with them, it would make sense. LA may prefer to add some assets for the post-Bron or to make some trades for players now. Little use for a rookie
18. Miami definitely a possibility - already at the tax line with like 5 players. Taking Lowry could be the way to get #18?
19. Could definitely be a target
20. Probably not

I don't necessarily have an opinion on these thoughts, just adding them into the database. And I do recommend this new Podcast. Like I said, already my favorite Spurs podcast (Locked on Spurs is pretty lame, SSPN is alright).

Good thoughts. Just futzing around.

11. Orlando. Their move at 6 is a mystery. If they're here, I think they take Gradey , although that seems so obvious everyone's saying it.
12. OKC. I don't see them trucking with San Antonio in any sense. We're gearing up to be major rivals.
13. Toronto. Probably needs a good cheap-contract rookie. I see Keyonte George mocked here a lot. Totally depends on other roster moves.
14. NOP. Who knows. Their attention will be pulled by trying to move up. If Charlotte or Portland wind up with this pick, also who knows.
15. Atlanta. They have so much ugly salary, but it's so ugly it's not worth a 15 to take. A lot of guards in this range, but they have guards...
16. Utah. Also looking to move up. Have too many picks otherwise, but I think they'll find a point guard here if they don't take one at 9. Hope they move up to take Amen or something
17. Lakers. Not clear on what they want to do here. Need win-now pieces and we don't have any of those. Could try to get off salary? But their salary is tied up in the big guys.
18. Miami. Another mystery. They have a lot of salary mess and may be going for Beale or another star. They have no SRPs for years and need cheap contracts.
19. Golden State. The biggest mess in the league, and one that doesn't trust its own drafting.
20. Houston. Don't see the Rockets messing with San Antonio anytime soon. Probably will use this pick on someone like Bryce Sensabaugh or Lively if he's around.
21./22. Brooklyn. I feel like one of these can possibly be bought. They have no draft picks next year - send them a FRP and a SRP and maybe something else.

My guess is that Kobe Bufkin goes to NOP or Hawks at the latest. Really, though, no idea. Masai is smart and may take him at 13. Just feel like anything after 16 is too late.

[intlspurshk]

Not sold on Black but Kobe is more realistic target and more safe pick. No way on FVV and I would rather try to steal a Austin Reeves from Lakers

[objective]

I think VanVleet would probably be a disaster.

He's going to be 30, his percentages tanked, and he's been run into the ground by Toronto as an undersized guard.

Minutes per game last 4 seasons:

19/20: 35.7. 8th in NBA mpg
20/21: 36.5. 2nd in NBA
21/22: 37.9. 1st (tied with Siakam) in NBA
22/23: 36.7. 5th in the NBA

Each of those years mpg was more than any Spur since Duncan in 03/04.

39.3% FG, and 34.2% from 3 in 22/23. Weak. He's basically a career 40% fg shooter and 37% from 3.

And he was a fake all-star as a result of a media campaign by the whining Toronto org. "Freddy All-Star" yeah right

What's going to happen if the Spurs sign him is his minutes will come way down under Pop and with age and wear and tear he's going to play 28 mpg and average 15 and 5 while everyone regrets paying him $30+ million.

I'd rather see Tre Jones on a full MLE deal than FVV, and I'm not even a Jones fan. At least Jones can get better.

[Cry Havoc]

It's just the most exciting time in arguably any team's modern history in terms of what's expected of Wemby. He is arguably coming in with more steam than nearly any draft pick in history outside of one LeBron James. And part of that reason is that nearly every single person, contrarian haters aside, expects him to be an almost unparalleled player. He has incredible touch around the rim and passing is really special for a player of any size, not just his 8 feet of wingspan.


And he will be a star. No amount of work can be done to label the Spurs as boring when a player with this kind of hype around him walks through the doors. The minute he shows a flash of greatness, people are going to start lining up to watch him, if not before.

[Raven]

Spurs making a push for Paul or Van Fleet...I hope not

i don't really get the appeal, he's not carl malone.

[CGD]

Spurs just get free stuff for Birch?

Washington won't get FRPs for Beal's salary. They'll be fortunate to get Herro and other matching.

Not free stuff. Miami paying us to get off Lowery. They’re in cap and need to make choices on key free agents. Spurs also sending out SRP (could be 33 instead) so WAS gets 3 picks for Beal.

[thiste]

PATFO playing 4D chess once again. Black is way too high a pick for us to reach anyway.

[CGD]

PATFO playing 4D chess once again. Black is way too high a pick for us to reach anyway.

Yeah, watch it be a smoke screen to go up and grab Nick Smith Jr.

[Degoat]

I’m all for the spurs trading up for a Guard in this draft, but honest question how is Kobe Bufkin and say Amari Bailey much different? Bailey most likely could be had at 33 I think

[Dex]

I agree the team needs structure and veteran leadership, but I'd prefer to see them focus on a point guard that can grow with this young core. Sure, that probably isn't going to lead to fast playoff success, but better for the long run.

Also, really don't want CP3. Yes, he was once a great player but dude is now pushing 40, has shown flashes of being a locker room cancer and borderline dirty, and all indications are that he wants to chase a ring. No moves the Spurs make this summer will immediately make them le contenders, so as much as I trust LJ's sources this story is really surprising to me. Hopefully it's just a smokescreen.

[DPG21920]

I agree the team needs structure and veteran leadership, but I'd prefer to see them focus on a point guard that can grow with this young core. Sure, that probably isn't going to lead to fast playoff success, but better for the long run.

Also, really don't want CP3. Yes, he was once a great player but dude is now pushing 40, has shown flashes of being a locker room cancer and borderline dirty, and all indications are that he wants to chase a ring. No moves the Spurs make this summer will immediately le contenders, so as much as I trust LJ's sources this story is really surprising to me. Hopefully it's just a smokescreen.

That portion seemed to be an opinion of someone outside of the team; I think its more of “I don’t really pay attention all that much but Spurs have money and a need so the fit makes surface level sense”…at least I hope that’s what it is.

[Dejounte]

I agree the team needs structure and veteran leadership, but I'd prefer to see them focus on a point guard that can grow with this young core. Sure, that probably isn't going to lead to fast playoff success, but better for the long run.

Also, really don't want CP3. Yes, he was once a great player but dude is now pushing 40, has shown flashes of being a locker room cancer and borderline dirty, and all indications are that he wants to chase a ring. No moves the Spurs make this summer will immediately le contenders, so as much as I trust LJ's sources this story is really surprising to me. Hopefully it's just a smokescreen.

TP was 6 years younger than TD. If a player of TP’s caliber isnt there this year, we have every year for the next six years to find a guy that can grow with Wemby.

it probably helped our cap situation back then that TP and TD werent so close in age and contract timelines.

[CorrectCrusader]

If Washington is tearing it down to the bolts, trading Beal (maybe for Herro and such), trading Porzingis, S&T for Kuzma... I don't know what they do with the 8 pick. Do you actually want to use it? It's kind of an odd pick for them. I guess a guy like Hendricks would be around. Not sure if Wallace makes sense unless they really, truly believe in him.

Yes, they're where we were just last year basically. They need as many picks as possible to try and get a player with large upside that can potential become a star for them.

[exstatic]

Yeah, watch it be a smoke screen to go up and grab Nick Smith Jr.

Absolutely terrible. He’s a smaller, less versatile Black, still with a bad shot. He could never dislodge Black from the starting gig once he recovered from his injuries.

[mo7888]

Yeah, watch it be a smoke screen to go up and grab Nick Smith Jr.

I would be one happy dude... lol

[mo7888]

Absolutely terrible. He’s a smaller, less versatile Black, still with a bad shot. He could never dislodge Black from the starting gig once he recovered from his injuries.

Nah... hes got a quick twitch first step Black could never emulate... he's got good positional size for a PG, his shot mechanics are very good (Black will never be as good from the field with NBA spacing), he's a willing defender and has every opportunity to be the best PG from this draft...

[Atl Spur]

I would be one happy dude... lol

I don’t like Nick Smith compe ive fire at all!

[exstatic]

I’m all for the spurs trading up for a Guard in this draft, but honest question how is Kobe Bufkin and say Amari Bailey much different? Bailey most likely could be had at 33 I think

If Amari learned to shoot, he could be a 3 and D specialist. Kobe can already shoot at a high level, create, and defend, and there’s some other skills that might be unlocked.

[buttsR4rebounding]

Yeah, watch it be a smoke screen to go up and grab Nick Smith Jr.

I was thinking the same thing.

[stnick2261]

TP was 6 years younger than TD. If a player of TP’s caliber isnt there this year, we have every year for the next six years to find a guy that can grow with Wemby.

it probably helped our cap situation back then that TP and TD werent so close in age and contract timelines.

Exactly. I would love a rookie PG this summer as well to grow with Wemby, but we have many options. We could go with PG by committee for this year and draft a PG next summer. We could get a PG 6 years older than Wemby for that same age difference for now. We could draft a young PG with the 2028 Boston pick swap because Wemby is 18 and might not even be at his peak by then (Wemby would be 23 at that point and they could still grow up together).

[CGD]

Absolutely terrible. He’s a smaller, less versatile Black, still with a bad shot. He could never dislodge Black from the starting gig once he recovered from his injuries.

Yeah I don’t know one way or another about the players (I only go by the scouting videos), but was just musing that linking spurs to the other two PGs could heighten their appeal (TIMVP may have just maybe Butkin a few more thousand dollars lol). And that could put Nick in their trade up strike zone around the 16-20 range.

[Mr. Body]

Yeah, watch it be a smoke screen to go up and grab Nick Smith Jr.

I was thinking it could be smokescreen to go after Hood-Schifino or Wallace. Or zag toward Hawkins or .

Someone posted that no player has ever succeeded who had a BPM under 1.0 at time of draft. JHS has size and core abilities like an ability to see the floor and defense. I always thought he needed another year in college, but if the Spurs develop players differently?

I'll continue to say Nick Smith Jr. is not a point guard to me. He's a guy who looks for his shot and isn't adept at either ball-handling or setting up other players. He also has real defensive issues.

[Mr. Body]

Exactly. I would love a rookie PG this summer as well to grow with Wemby, but we have many options. We could go with PG by committee for this year and draft a PG next summer. We could get a PG 6 years older than Wemby for that same age difference for now. We could draft a young PG with the 2028 Boston pick swap because Wemby is 18 and might not even be at his peak by then (Wemby would be 23 at that point and they could still grow up together).

Those are probably the most likely scenarios rather than buying a new draft pick this year.

But those options are more illusory and unstable than they first appear. We can draft a point guard next year - but what point guard? We can draft one in 2025 - but what point guard? We can buy a player with picks in three years - but what player? We can always sign a free agent - but what free agent?

It's easy to say there will be excellent opportunities ahead, but it's not like saying "We can just get gas in the next town." Not every town has a gas station. You don't always get opportunities. What if the next draft classes have poor point guard prospects? Future free agents are already in the league - who do we really think can be had? Anybody?

Instead, we have tangible players that are possible with very few swings of the bat in terms of off-seasons. Say, we have six off-seasons by the example here. Maybe three of them have good point guard prospects who could be starters (and are good at, for example, shooting or defense, and have good team personalities). Maybe we're in range to get one in two of those off-seasons. Or there is a FA or a player we can pry loose in an expensive way. There's also the opportunity cost of not developing a young talent when the possibility was there.

We have only so many cracks at getting that right point guard. Why not go after one now if there are already good, real, tangible options in front of us? It makes far more sense to try than not to.