Latest Intel as Spurs Head into the Victor Wembanyama Draft

[MultiTroll]

Who is the GNob, Parker, Joker and even S bag pick in this years draft?
Will there be one in retrospect 2026?

Guess if anyone knew they'd be ballin.

[stnick2261]

Those are probably the most likely scenarios rather than buying a new draft pick this year.

But those options are more illusory and unstable than they first appear. We can draft a point guard next year - but what point guard? We can draft one in 2025 - but what point guard? We can buy a player with picks in three years - but what player? We can always sign a free agent - but what free agent?

It's easy to say there will be excellent opportunities ahead, but it's not like saying "We can just get gas in the next town." Not every town has a gas station. You don't always get opportunities. What if the next draft classes have poor point guard prospects? Future free agents are already in the league - who do we really think can be had? Anybody?

Instead, we have tangible players that are possible with very few swings of the bat in terms of off-seasons. Say, we have six off-seasons by the example here. Maybe three of them have good point guard prospects who could be starters (and are good at, for example, shooting or defense, and have good team personalities). Maybe we're in range to get one in two of those off-seasons. Or there is a FA or a player we can pry loose in an expensive way. There's also the opportunity cost of not developing a young talent when the possibility was there.

We have only so many cracks at getting that right point guard. Why not go after one now if there are already good, real, tangible options in front of us? It makes far more sense to try than not to.

If we are running low on gas, I'd say we need to stop and get gas right away... but we're not. We have options. It's hard to think there's not a viable gas station at every "town" (season) when each season has a draft, free agency and trade system. We don't have to know (right now) exactly who we are getting in the future because there is really no way of knowing. We don't have to make a bad decision, or a bad trade right now because we have options and we are not pressed for time.

I would love if we could solve the PG issue now (if we are driving up on a Buccee's), but I wouldn't want to mortgage my house to be able to stop there.

I think we are agreeing(?)... I think I just have a more patient (trust the Spurs scouting over the next 11 first round draft picks) POV.

[Mr. Body]

If we are running low on gas, I'd say we need to stop and get gas right away... but we're not. We have options. It's hard to think there's not a viable gas station at every "town" (season) when each season has a draft, free agency and trade system. We don't have to know (right now) exactly who we are getting in the future because there is really no way of knowing. We don't have to make a bad decision, or a bad trade right now because we have options and we are not pressed for time.

I would love if we could solve the PG issue now (if we are driving up on a Buccee's), but I wouldn't want to mortgage my house to be able to stop there.

I think we are agreeing(?)... I think I just have a more patient (trust the Spurs scouting over the next 11 first round draft picks) POV.

My point is we may have like four or five options in six years to try to fix the point guard issue. Throwing away one of those, the current one, because of imagined solutions is really bad business.

Why trust Spurs scouting in the future when we have Spurs scouting in the present? Why not use some capital now when we're probably going to have to use capital for those unseen moves in the future? Why give up on developing a player in this draft for three years in favor of some unknown and possibly not-there player three years from now? We have so many draft assets we have to spend them. It's not a Scrooge McDuck situation where we can just swim around in them indefinitely.

[buttsR4rebounding]

But what if Scrooge McDuck has a full tank of gas?

[Mr. Body]

2019 Draft
Ja Morant (2)
Darius Garland (5)
Coby White (7)
Ty Jerome (24)
Kevin Porter Jr. (30)
Carsen Edwards (33)

2020 Draft
LaMello Ball (3)
Killian Hayes (7)
Tyrese Haliburton (12)
Kira Lewis (13)
Cole Anthony (15)
Immanuel Quickley (25)
Malachi Flynn (29)
Tre Jones (41)

2021 Draft
Cade Cunningham (1)
Jalen Suggs (5)
Josh Giddey (6)
Davion Mitc (9)
James Bouknight (11)
Josh Primo (12)
Chris Duarte (13)
Tre Mann (18)
Bones Hyland (26)
Cam Thomas (27)

2022 Draft
Jaden Ivey (5)
Dyson Daniels (8)
Blake Wesley (25)
TyTy Washington (29)
Andrew Nembhard (31)
Kennedy Chandler (38)

Those are the point guard prospects in the last several drafts. I left out marginally non-PG types who are more SGs, but even this list is full of shoot-first SG prospects who are heliocentric. Depends, too, on what you value -- just a guy who can dribble? A guy who can shoot? A guy who can play defense? Me, I value defense alongside being able to organize an offense. There are very, very few players who meet those criteria.

We can see there are very good players here, but they are taken high, and those teams did not trade for those picks. They just got lucky where they fell. Even so, there are busts or near-busts in those ranges. As we drop from the mid-lottery, things get much dicier, and there are clear failures everywhere.

The key point, though, is this: There are very few PG prospects in every draft.

If the goal is to just get a point guard type and see what happens, then we can wait anytime. If the effort is to get someone who can (say) play defense, run pick-n-rolls, has high character (wants to play hard, be here), and may top out at least in the area of s om, this is very hard to come by.

[CorrectCrusader]

2019 Draft
Ja Morant (2)
Darius Garland (5)
Coby White (7)
Ty Jerome (24)
Kevin Porter Jr. (30)
Carsen Edwards (33)

2020 Draft
LaMello Ball (3)
Killian Hayes (7)
Tyrese Haliburton (12)
Kira Lewis (13)
Cole Anthony (15)
Immanuel Quickley (25)
Malachi Flynn (29)
Tre Jones (41)

2021 Draft
Cade Cunningham (1)
Jalen Suggs (5)
Josh Giddey (6)
Davion Mitc (9)
James Bouknight (11)
Josh Primo (12)
Chris Duarte (13)
Tre Mann (18)
Bones Hyland (26)
Cam Thomas (27)

2022 Draft
Jaden Ivey (5)
Dyson Daniels (8)
Blake Wesley (25)
TyTy Washington (29)
Andrew Nembhard (31)
Kennedy Chandler (38)

Those are the point guard prospects in the last several drafts. I left out marginally non-PG types who are more SGs, but even this list is full of shoot-first SG prospects who are heliocentric. Depends, too, on what you value -- just a guy who can dribble? A guy who can shoot? A guy who can play defense? Me, I value defense alongside being able to organize an offense. There are very, very few players who meet those criteria.

We can see there are very good players here, but they are taken high, and those teams did not trade for those picks. They just got lucky where they fell. Even so, there are busts or near-busts in those ranges. As we drop from the mid-lottery, things get much dicier, and there are clear failures everywhere.

The key point, though, is this: There are very few PG prospects in every draft.

If the goal is to just get a point guard type and see what happens, then we can wait anytime. If the effort is to get someone who can (say) play defense, run pick-n-rolls, has high character (wants to play hard, be here), and may top out at least in the area of s om, this is very hard to come by.

Honestly with how our PG prospects have developed the past few years, It makes me think that the FO could draft whatever PG and they would get good at facilitation.

[mo7888]

I don’t like Nick Smith compe ive fire at all!

I do. The kid could have sat out (and probably should have) after that injury, but he came back and gave it a go in college when it was against his best interest.

[Mr. Body]

Honestly with how our PG prospects have developed the past few years, It makes me think that the FO could draft whatever PG and they would get good at facilitation.

That's probably the wrong judgment to make. There are likely only certain type of players the team feels can develop in certain ways. I don't think you could take a Bones Hyland or Cam Thomas and make them into a facilitator.

[kht]

Guys at the 25-35 picks are interchangeable I think. We can get some good value at 33.

[Ocotillo]

Not sure where to stick this so I will put it here only as if it were to come to fruition, it would shake up the sequence of the first round.

Report: Rockets could explore Zion Williamson trade involving No. 4 pick

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/report-...195532365.html

[Mr. Body]

Pelicans showing Zion's ass like one of his porn stars.

[Ariel]

I'd like to believe we're targeting Black & Bufkin, but the fact that it's being reported makes me believe it isn't so.

[mo7888]

I'd like to believe we're targeting Black & Bufkin, but the fact that it's being reported makes me believe it isn't so.

I think we're tarheting more upside guys like Walker or NSJ. The one 'safe' pick in that range i could see that we dont talk about much for the Spurs is Gradey . NSJ or Gradey could fall to the late lottery and become very affordable for us. Walker would be harder. I think we'd definitely need to be in the top 10 and likely the top 7.

[Atl Spur]

I'd like to believe we're targeting Black & Bufkin, but the fact that it's being reported makes me believe it isn't so.

I would agree.

[Atl Spur]

I do. The kid could have sat out (and probably should have) after that injury, but he came back and gave it a go in college when it was against his best interest.

Gotcha. I just didn’t like what I saw but let’s keep a eye on his progression moving forward.

[exstatic]

I'd like to believe we're targeting Black & Bufkin, but the fact that it's being reported makes me believe it isn't so.

The thing is, teams jack with each other and jump in front in the 20s, but most teams have a pretty clear idea of what they want and need, and don't play such games in the lottery.

[Ariel]

I think we're tarheting more upside guys like Walker or NSJ. The one 'safe' pick in that range i could see that we dont talk about much for the Spurs is Gradey . NSJ or Gradey could fall to the late lottery and become very affordable for us. Walker would be harder. I think we'd definitely need to be in the top 10 and likely the top 7.

I wouldn't want to target any undersized, inefficient scoring guards that aren't good at creating for others. That archetype ends up overhyped and underperforming pretty much all the time.

[mo7888]

I wouldn't want to target any undersized, inefficient scoring guards that aren't good at creating for others. That archetype ends up overhyped and underperforming pretty much all the time.

I agree with your statement, but I don't think thats what NSJ is...

[exstatic]

I agree with your statement, but I don't think thats what NSJ is...

An asst/TO ratio of 1.7/1.6, while acceptable for a big or big wing, is non-optimal for a guard who you might want to run your offense.

[mo7888]

An asst/TO ratio of 1.7/1.6, while acceptable for a big or big wing, is non-optimal for a guard who you might want to run your offense.

On what...17 games playing injured... after he came in projecyed as a PG and ended up moving to an off guard position after missing so much time.... stats are a great tool, but they are misleading without context.

[rjv]

An asst/TO ratio of 1.7/1.6, while acceptable for a big or big wing, is non-optimal for a guard who you might want to run your offense.

that's why i hope the spurs don't take a flyer on amari bailey.

[scott]

2019 Draft
Ja Morant (2)
Darius Garland (5)
Coby White (7)
Ty Jerome (24)
Kevin Porter Jr. (30)
Carsen Edwards (33)

2020 Draft
LaMello Ball (3)
Killian Hayes (7)
Tyrese Haliburton (12)
Kira Lewis (13)
Cole Anthony (15)
Immanuel Quickley (25)
Malachi Flynn (29)
Tre Jones (41)

2021 Draft
Cade Cunningham (1)
Jalen Suggs (5)
Josh Giddey (6)
Davion Mitc (9)
James Bouknight (11)
Josh Primo (12)
Chris Duarte (13)
Tre Mann (18)
Bones Hyland (26)
Cam Thomas (27)

2022 Draft
Jaden Ivey (5)
Dyson Daniels (8)
Blake Wesley (25)
TyTy Washington (29)
Andrew Nembhard (31)
Kennedy Chandler (38)

Those are the point guard prospects in the last several drafts. I left out marginally non-PG types who are more SGs, but even this list is full of shoot-first SG prospects who are heliocentric. Depends, too, on what you value -- just a guy who can dribble? A guy who can shoot? A guy who can play defense? Me, I value defense alongside being able to organize an offense. There are very, very few players who meet those criteria.

We can see there are very good players here, but they are taken high, and those teams did not trade for those picks. They just got lucky where they fell. Even so, there are busts or near-busts in those ranges. As we drop from the mid-lottery, things get much dicier, and there are clear failures everywhere.

The key point, though, is this: There are very few PG prospects in every draft.

If the goal is to just get a point guard type and see what happens, then we can wait anytime. If the effort is to get someone who can (say) play defense, run pick-n-rolls, has high character (wants to play hard, be here), and may top out at least in the area of s om, this is very hard to come by.

This is a good perspective, but I imagine in a few years we'll look back at the 2023 class and think it wasn't any better than any of these. Some of the PG prospects in this draft are going to flame out and be busts. It seems to me (by this list) that a "good" PG draft would have 3-4 guys who end up with viable careers, and "bad" drafts only have 1-2. Slim margins between the two.

[Mr. Body]

This is a good perspective, but I imagine in a few years we'll look back at the 2023 class and think it wasn't any better than any of these. Some of the PG prospects in this draft are going to flame out and be busts. It seems to me (by this list) that a "good" PG draft would have 3-4 guys who end up with viable careers, and "bad" drafts only have 1-2. Slim margins between the two.

Oh, I don't disagree with that at all. I think Hood-Schifino has a long way to go. They could all bust. This draft isn't much different in that regard. I'm just trying to make a case that looking for a player in this draft makes sense. You can always try again if needed. My other point is that finding a few PG types who really like to get after it in defense is pretty rare.

[mo7888]

Here's a wrinkle I wasn't aware of until I read Eric Pincus's report on each teams off-season. Orlando's contract with Jonathan Isaac for 2023-24 is guaranteed for just $7.6 million. And the final season, in 2024-25 is now fully non-guaranteed.

There are indications that they want to clear some more salary to go after FVF, it might make sense to take him in a trade for one of their picks and provide them future draft capital. We can waive Isaac or keep him and try to rehabilitate some value this season and waive him in the off-season if that doesn't work.

[exstatic]

Here's a wrinkle I wasn't aware of until I read Eric Pincus's report on each teams off-season. Orlando's contract with Jonathan Isaac for 2023-24 is guaranteed for just $7.6 million. And the final season, in 2024-25 is now fully non-guaranteed.

There are indications that they want to clear some more salary to go after FVF, it might make sense to take him in a trade for one of their picks and provide them future draft capital. We can waive Isaac or keep him and try to rehabilitate some value this season and waive him in the off-season if that doesn't work.

Do you know what the guarantee date is for his deal? He's pretty much a nutter, so I really don't want him playing this year with the Spurs.