The Value of Future FRPs

[scottspurs]

I really don’t think you trade your own future picks until you know for sure this is headed towards contending. I’m all for trading 3 assets for 1 and seeing how high that gets you in this draft. Keldon Johnson to me is only traded if we can get up into top 7 and that’s assuming Brandon Miller doesn’t fall to 7. He is the one guy spurs are definitely not trading up for.

so how far up does the following trade assets get you?

keldon, bulls pick, raptors pick

Zach Collins, bulls pick, raptors pick

raptors pick, bulls pick, hornets pick

Both hawks picks, bulls or hornets pick

pick 33, bulls pick, hornets pick

Pick 33, Blake Wesley, raptors pick

these are examples of potential trade up packages. If they could dump the bulls and hornets picks to move up with 33 that would be the ultimate win

[BacktoBasics]

I really don’t think you trade your own future picks until you know for sure this is headed towards contending. I’m all for trading 3 assets for 1 and seeing how high that gets you in this draft. Keldon Johnson to me is only traded if we can get up into top 7 and that’s assuming Brandon Miller doesn’t fall to 7. He is the one guy spurs are definitely not trading up for.

so how far up does the following trade assets get you?

keldon, bulls pick, raptors pick

Zach Collins, bulls pick, raptors pick

raptors pick, bulls pick, hornets pick

Both hawks picks, bulls or hornets pick

pick 33, bulls pick, hornets pick

Pick 33, Blake Wesley, raptors pick

these are examples of potential trade up packages. If they could dump the bulls and hornets picks to move up with 33 that would be the ultimate win

I would only move Keldon for top 3. 4th pick and beyond is a stretch for me. There’s no guaranteed production that balances potential after the 3rd pick. I have no issue with Miller either. We need Keldon to handle the offensive load this year and maybe next. Unless you’re returning proven talent or significant potential of a top 3 pick I have no interest in trading him.

Wemby and Vassell are not enough to carry the offense and it’s too much to ask of Wemby. Keldon takes a ton of pressure off the core.

Look at how these teams with high picks have struggled. Can’t develop a roster all at one time. Wemby couldn’t ask for a better group than Keldon, Vassell and Branham to help him ease in.

Your other trade examples are reasonable to me. Collins might be a good player to move with picks.

[Russ]

Looking at it from my simple, unsophisticated POV it's damn impressive -- the Spurs have ten 1st Round picks and ten 2nd Round picks during the five year period from 2024-2028.

[scottspurs]

I agree with you on Keldon unless the Spurs are really high on one of the Thompson twins. If they believe they can unlock their potential I would be all for it. Otherwise, I’m all for letting the draft play out and seeing how far you can get up with other assets. I’m sure the Spurs have had conversations with teams on packages if a player they like drops and that team wants out of their pick. I think 3 assets for one will be the price until we get to the pick 22 range

[exstatic]

I agree with you on Keldon unless the Spurs are really high on one of the Thompson twins. If they believe they can unlock their potential I would be all for it. Otherwise, I’m all for letting the draft play out and seeing how far you can get up with other assets. I’m sure the Spurs have had conversations with teams on packages if a player they like drops and that team wants out of their pick. I think 3 assets for one will be the price until we get to the pick 22 range

Depends what the assets are.

[JPB]

About the argument explaining spurs should use their 31 picks rather quickly, not to hurt their value... Here's why I believe that it doesn't stand...

First and foremsot, those 31 picks are own to the spurs in the next SEVEN years... A lot of things can and will happen within that span, and if Wemby becomes who we all hope he will, spurs will need a lot picks to bring stars but also role, players eventually having to overpay..

But let's see what we're talking about here:

- The 19 second round picks:

they're really not a problem. As we've seen this past deadline, you can package them by grasps to get role players, use them to sweeten those star or role player trades also by grasps (like 4 or 5), you can sell them or use them on stashed payers. Really not a problem to "get rid of them"

- the 12 first round picks.

That's 7 of our own picks + 5 obtained via trades. So that's basically it. that handful of bonus FRPs allow you to conclude big trades to build a contender around Wemby all the while picking FR prospects you believe in, like spurs have been doing during the Big 3 era...

So I don't see any "pressure" the spurs would have to spend their picks in this draft and overapay for a lottery pick or whatever... It's all good, they're in a comfortable position and don't HAVE to make a move for the sake of it, but only if they REALLY believe that's worth it, just like next year and the following ones... Not only they don't have, but they shouldn't and stay smart and wise, focusing on players value, independently of their mass of picks...

[exstatic]

About the argument explaining spurs should use their 31 picks rather quickly, not to hurt their value... Here's why I believe that it doesn't stand...

First and foremsot, those 31 picks are own to the spurs in the next SEVEN years... A lot of things can and will happen within that span, and if Wemby becomes who we all hope he will, spurs will need a lot picks to bring stars but also role, players eventually having to overpay..

But let's see what we're talking about here:

- The 19 second round picks:

they're really not a problem. As we've seen this past deadline, you can package them by grasps to get role players, use them to sweeten those star or role player trades also by grasps (like 4 or 5), you can sell them or use them on stashed payers. Really not a problem to "get rid of them"

- the 12 first round picks.

That's 7 of our own picks + 5 obtained via trades. So that's basically it. that handful of bonus FRPs allow you to conclude big trades to build a contender around Wemby all the while picking FR prospects you believe in, like spurs have been doing during the Big 3 era...

So I don't see any "pressure" the spurs would have to spend their picks in this draft and overapay for a lottery pick or whatever... It's all good, they're in a comfortable position and don't HAVE to make a move for the sake of it, but only if they REALLY believe that's worth it, just like next year and the following ones... Not only they don't have, but they shouldn't and stay smart and wise, focusing on players value, independently of their mass of picks...

No one said that. We were talking about not going into next year’s draft with three FRPs. It’s a weak bargaining position.

[rascal]

The value of most of these picks is highest now.

All these picks will lose value if they fall into the 20's or never convey into a first round pick so there is a cost for not using the picks in trades now while they still hold the possibility of hitting their max value.

[scott]

The value of most of these picks is highest now.

All these picks will lose value if they fall into the 20's or never convey into a first round pick so there is a cost for not using the picks in trades now while they still hold the possibility of hitting their max value.

100% - the “unknown” tends to create an overvaluation, because typically as more is known about anything, the less likely it becomes that the absolute best case scenario will ultimately be what happens.

However, that can work in reverse under some cir stances - the CHA pick may increase in value as more becomes known - specifically if it starts to look like CHA will compete for a playoff spot.

[spurraider21]

while i think Scoot was BPA at #2, Miller is the more natural fit for Charlotte and probably has a higher floor as a rookie. assuming they bring top RFAs Miles Bridges and PJ Washington back, i like the odds of the FRP conveying

Lamelo Ball - Amari Bailey
Terry Rozier - Nick Smith
Brandon Miller - Gordon Hayward
Miles Bridges - PJ Washington
Mark Williams - James Nnaji

[Davidicus]

Very interested to see how FA and next season shakes out for Toronto

[SpursFan86]

while i think Scoot was BPA at #2, Miller is the more natural fit for Charlotte and probably has a higher floor as a rookie. assuming they bring top RFAs Miles Bridges and PJ Washington back, i like the odds of the FRP conveying

Lamelo Ball - Amari Bailey
Terry Rozier - Nick Smith
Brandon Miller - Gordon Hayward
Miles Bridges - PJ Washington
Mark Williams - James Nnaji

Was thinking the same thing. Miller has the higher floor and will be a better player than Scoot in year 1 IMO, and the rest of their draft was solid as well. I’m now fairly optimistic that pick will convey in 2024.

[spurraider21]

Very interested to see how FA and next season shakes out for Toronto

even if toronto gets plucked apart and manages to lose both Poeltl and Vanvleet, the protections are light enough (only top 6) that the pick probably still conveys in that scenario barring catastrophic injuries

[JPB]

even if toronto gets plucked apart and manages to lose both Poeltl and Vanvleet, the protections are light enough (only top 6) that the pick probably still conveys in that scenario barring catastrophic injuries

Unless they decide to badly tank.

[spurraider21]

Unless they decide to badly tank.

yeah. but even then, its top 6 protected for 3 years

[TD 21]

while i think Scoot was BPA at #2, Miller is the more natural fit for Charlotte and probably has a higher floor as a rookie. assuming they bring top RFAs Miles Bridges and PJ Washington back, i like the odds of the FRP conveying

Lamelo Ball - Amari Bailey
Terry Rozier - Nick Smith
Brandon Miller - Gordon Hayward
Miles Bridges - PJ Washington
Mark Williams - James Nnaji

Smith Jr. (supposedly interested in retaining), Martin and Richards are far more likely to be in the rotation than Bailey, Smith and Nnaji.

If they can't trade Hayward, I wonder whether their cheap asses lose Washington Jr, despite their supposed interest in retaining.

[Maddog]

John Collins form Atlanta sent to Jazz in Salary Dump

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2023/06/...s-to-jazz.html

[Excessive Egotist]

The most valuable picks are the ATL picks. And then, maybe, the Boston swap. I suspect the Spurs will win 35-38 games this season, so I don't anticipate their own '24 is super valuable, especially given the quality of the draft.

The '24 draft is . The '25 draft is not supposed to be very good, but who knows. Or roster space is tight for a couple years. In short, I'm hopeful the Chicago and Toronto picks don't convey until '26. And I'd love to see the Spurs somehow pick up another unprotected '26 pick. The top of the '26 draft is fantastic. From a cap standpoint, getting our second definite young max player that summer would be awesome because the max won't come until 2030.

[exstatic]

The most valuable picks are the ATL picks. And then, maybe, the Boston swap. I suspect the Spurs will win 35-38 games this season, so I don't anticipate their own '24 is super valuable, especially given the quality of the draft.

The '24 draft is . The '25 draft is not supposed to be very good, but who knows. Or roster space is tight for a couple years. In short, I'm hopeful the Chicago and Toronto picks don't convey until '26. And I'd love to see the Spurs somehow pick up another unprotected '26 pick. The top of the '26 draft is fantastic. From a cap standpoint, getting our second definite young max player that summer would be awesome because the max won't come until 2030.

You don't know either of those things. You're taking the fact that there's no clear generational player at the top, and judging the whole draft by that. The fact is, you won't know what the 2024 draft even is until 2026, two years out.

[scott]

Still definitely have concerns about that CHA pick conveying, no matter how well we may think CHA did in the draft. It looks like a promising roster, but also looks like a roster that could completely be in disarray and never figure out how to play with one another. This is obviously the first pick that we should be looking to use in a trade.

The TOR pick is almost lock to convey, zero worries there. Even if TOR goes hard tank, finishing with a Top 6 pick 3-straight years requires a DET/HOU level commitment to inep ude

[Mr. Body]

Still definitely have concerns about that CHA pick conveying, no matter how well we may think CHA did in the draft. It looks like a promising roster, but also looks like a roster that could completely be in disarray and never figure out how to play with one another. This is obviously the first pick that we should be looking to use in a trade.

The TOR pick is almost lock to convey, zero worries there. Even if TOR goes hard tank, finishing with a Top 6 pick 3-straight years requires a DET/HOU level commitment to inep ude

The Eastern Conference is more difficult thatn the WC to me. Only the Nets are likely to tumble from the postseason, and possibly Atlanta. The Knicks you're never sure about. The Heat was only an 8th seed with a 44-38 record. The Raptors and Bulls were at .500 or just below. Historically those were more than fine to get an Eastern Conference team into the playoffs.

Western Conference? I wouldn't bat an eye if most any playoff team this last year didn't make it next year, not even Denver.

So yeah, I don't think it's a sure thing the Hornets make it in. They did look much better with Mark Williams, but it's still a young team whose talent doesn't exactly blow you away.

[spurraider21]

we might need to hang onto one of these picks to get off the Tre Jones contract in 1-2 years tbh

[Mr. Body]

we might need to hang onto one of these picks to get off the Tre Jones contract in 1-2 years tbh

lol wut

[Excessive Egotist]

I don't think it will happen, but if Portland goes for Draymond, I'd take back Nurkic and (at least) their '26 in a cap dump so they can free the necessary space.

[spurraider21]