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That's kinda how I feel, but if the best offer is Banchero/Wagner I'll roll the dice on Wemby tbh.
https://deanondraft.substack.com/p/h...-with-atypical
The key part:
I don't agree with him that trading Wemby should even be on the table, but it's good to get a contrarian perspective.He is clearly the correct choice at #1 overall this year, but the generational hype is overblown. It is ridiculous to put him on the level of LeBron James or Luka Doncic who fit traditional star molds. And if there was an Anthony Davis, Joel Embiid, Jaren Jackson Jr., or Evan Mobley tier prospect on the board he may not be the correct choice.
The Spurs say they are not listening to Wemby offers, and that could be a mistake if a team is willing to gouge themselves to trade for the pick.If they could get Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero from Orlando, that is a deal that would be worth pursuing. Especially if they can sneak in a Jalen Suggs on the side.
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It may be a scary proposition to potentially trade the next Kareem for what may never amount to more than an elite role player and empty calories volume scorer. But it should be at least as scary to pass up a possibly elite star wing duo to lock into the next Greg Oden or Ralph Sampson.
That's kinda how I feel, but if the best offer is Banchero/Wagner I'll roll the dice on Wemby tbh.
This is definitely a contrarian perspective, but I've been thinking a little bit as well how I don't think Wemby is the same level of prospect as Duncan or Lebron. While Wemby's ceiling may be just as high as TOP 5 PLAYER IN THE HISTORY OF THE SPORT (which is what Lebron and Duncan are), I think he carries with him a considerably lower floor than either of those two. I'd say his floor may even be under other #1s from very recent like Banchero, to further back like Kyrie & Dwight Howard, to WAY back like AI, Chris Webber, Shaq. While none of these guys present the GAME CHANGING UPSIDE that Wemby does, they all had higher floors (and I'd say Shaq and maybe even AI were game-changing in their own right).
Let's just say the Lottery winner is forced to take best big.
If it doesn't work out due to injuries, no one is at fault.
If the winner did not take the best big and he plays for other team and blossomed, it will be very painful
If the idea is Wembanyama needs to be traded off because he'll get hurt, that's one thing. He will get hurt. The team needs to plan how to play with and without him. But this isn't Zion, who is more interested in inhaling food and ing porn stars than staying in shape. You don't trade a great talent because he may get injured in the future.
If the idea is that Wembanyama needs to be traded because we've never seen this player before, that don't make no goddamn sense. This is the sort of place where Dean messes up. Where he misses on guys like Jaylen Williams. If he doesn't get the stats, he can't see anything.
I would draft Victor Wembanyama on defensive upside alone. His defense is so potentially game-changing, it's incredible by itself. A super-mobile, quick, extremely long shotblocker and guy who can stuff perimeter action on length. And then you add offensive upside. Banchero and Wagner are good, but each caps out at a certain point well below Vic's ceiling.
My worry about Victor isn't his floor as a player; if he's healthy he's going to be a top 5 MVP candidate for years. He's an S-Tier defensive presence, he can run the floor like a SF, the fact that he shoots in the 80s from the FT line makes me think he'll become a solid three point shooter in the NBA, can handle the ball, is athletic as , looks to be a good teammate, shows a really strong work ethic, and is producing results playing against men and not kids in the NCAA. My worry about Victor, and it's a significant worry, is that stress fracture he had in his fibula in 2020. That's the thing that could keep him from being a Hall of Famer. But he's a total package.
It would have to be Giannis and Jrue Holiday. In other words, an offer that is guaranteed to make the Spurs a le contender right now.
Only player I'd do it for straight up is Jokic tbh. That being said, Spurs have an obligation to listen to offers. You never know what some crazy package could be offered. If Orlando offered Banchero/Wagner/Suggs and unprotected picks/swaps for the next 10 years I'd consider it.
It's like saying don't draft Magic, draft Moncrief, because there's no such thing as a 6'9" point guard.
Basically - he's the right choice at 1, but there may be some packages that maybe should be considered, or not.
Definitely covering all bases there but it sounds contrarian for the sake of it. Sure, Wemby could get hurt and sure, the pressure on him is so much that simply not becoming a LeBron or Duncan level but , say a Giannis level player, would be seen by some as busting, but there's no GM who would be brave enough to entertain trading the pick even for a great package. What would Banchero, Wagner and some Orlando picks get you? An Orlando type future? No thanks.
Human psychology doesn't work like that. We're not computers, we're led by emotions and hope. No GM/FO will be fired or criticized for picking Wemby, but they might be fired on the spot if they trade him and he's good right away without even taking into account what might happen with him 5 years down the road.
Eh, Orlando sucks because they have poor management. Give the Spurs those assets and they're le contenders in a few years. If Wemby pans out they're le favorites in a few years for the next decade-plus.
WTF.Some people like to give contrarian takes just because it makes them look smart. But this is just plain ridiculous.
I'm a huge fan of both Paolo and Franz. In fact, they were two of the players I coveted most in the past two drafts. But I would never trade Wemby for them. Not even if you threw in Jalen Suggs.
Last edited by Uriel; 06-16-2023 at 01:20 AM.
Imagine saying the Cavs should have listened to trades for Lebron and suggesting that Yao and Steve Francis was worth listening to. And maybe if they threw it cuttino Mobley!
yeah there are risks but I wanna see how this plays out ...
Same. Potential injuries are the only thing holding this kid back from being a HOF’er. But those boats for feet that he has do make me nervous. Long ass bones like that are so much more susceptible to injury. We’ve seen it countless times. Scares me tbh. I know he takes great care of them, but sometimes it doesn’t matter. Hopefully he proves me wrong though.
At a high level. Yes. There will be instances where we trade the pick. Like if maybe Denver offered jokic.
But in reality we won't get jokic. That's nonsense.
Paolo banchero trade doesn't make sense. What if Paolo gets injured?
So in reality. We get a trade where we may actually get some good value. But no one will offer that.
Some will offer bad value. But we shouldn't take bad value.
absolutely idiotic take
By this logic, Orlando would be wrong to trade for him.
It's just clickbait.... nobody should take Dean seriously.... he there for entertainment...not intelligence..
But does he ever say why? Or is he just going of vibes and his person opinion. im
Always willing to hear a good reasoned argument, but without that why is this even considered serious journalism or analysis?
He’s not a journalist, he’s a high stakes bettor who uses advanced stats. He just happens to write some of it up, online.
It's the usual "Tall players don't last long." He says there's a cap of longetivity for tall players at 7'2". His reasonining for this? Kareem Abdul-Jabaar did this. Like, if Kareem was two inches taller, he'd set the cap there.
Then he says the Spurs should trade him, but doesn't chide other teams for trying to trade for him, which doesn't make sense. It's illogical. He's basically saying no one should take Wembanyama.
Not Taking Wemby isn’t a discussion….. moving on
Sometimes I wish the Spurs got the second pick and could get a safer prospect, but Wemby is worth the risk. If he gets hurt or can’t last, we’ll just start rebuilding again. That is more what typically happens with NBA teams, we were just spoiled with Duncan era and a front office that regularly ignored opportunities to break up the big three.
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