Dean on Draft talks Wemby, Zion, Young

[rjv]

that's a pretty wide domain that dean gave himself-wemby could be either the next kareem or the next oden/sampson.

[offset formation]

Only downside to drafting Wemby is knowing the Spurs will err on the side of caution, as they absolutely should. What this means though is that each time he has foot pain or a rolled ankle, or a calf strain, or bumps a knee, he's likely to be held out for extended periods. And so, he likely will miss extended periods of games pretty much yearly. And if it happens around the playoffs, then we simply won't shoot our load that year.

And if it's a lisfranc or other broken bone or significant foot injury situation (which is obviously the concern with him), kiss a year or more away.

He's a no-brainer selection but given his freakish body sizeand Spurs MO on injury management, these are the risks and ramifications of taking him. Of course the upside is multiple rings.

[JPB]

Only downside to drafting Wemby is knowing the Spurs will err on the side of caution, as they absolutely should. What this means though is that each time he has foot pain or a rolled ankle, or a calf strain, or bumps a knee, he's likely to be held out for extended periods. And so, he likely will miss extended periods of games pretty much yearly. And if it happens around the playoffs, then we simply won't shoot our load that year.

And if it's a lisfranc or other broken bone or significant foot injury situation (which is obviously the concern with him), kiss a year or more away.

He's a no-brainer selection but given his freakish body sizeand Spurs MO on injury management, these are the risks and ramifications of taking him. Of course the upside is multiple rings.

We have no more idea how his health will go than with any other player. He's played 60 games this year without any real injury and he might end up his career with less issues than many guards or wings... We can't and shouldn't assume anything and spurs will be as careful with him that they've been with Tim.

[exstatic]

Dean’s emphasis appears to be on value so I take his opinion higher on predicting quality role players. Despite what he says in that article, prioritizing winning a championship is actually the goal, though there are different ways to build a team, typically correlated with the owner’s whims and impulsivity.

Anyway. I like reading him and often see merit in what he says, but he still feels like a typically.

He can be a whack a doodle, but that’s one of the things I like about him. He isn’t like almost a every other mock draft, slurping up the hype with a giant spoon, and then collectively vomiting out nearly identical lists.

[The Truth #6]

He can be a whack a doodle, but that’s one of the things I like about him. He isn’t like almost a every other mock draft, slurping up the hype with a giant spoon, and then collectively vomiting out nearly identical lists.

Yeah, I agree in general. I liked his article about Scoot and athleticism.

[Obstructed_View]

WTF. Some people like to give contrarian takes just because it makes them look smart. But this is just plain ridiculous.

I wouldn't trade Wembanyama for a 19 year old Embiid or AD, knowing what they are gonna produce.

[Obstructed_View]

Only downside to drafting Wemby is knowing the Spurs will err on the side of caution, as they absolutely should. What this means though is that each time he has foot pain or a rolled ankle, or a calf strain, or bumps a knee, he's likely to be held out for extended periods. And so, he likely will miss extended periods of games pretty much yearly. And if it happens around the playoffs, then we simply won't shoot our load that year.

And if it's a lisfranc or other broken bone or significant foot injury situation (which is obviously the concern with him), kiss a year or more away.

He's a no-brainer selection but given his freakish body sizeand Spurs MO on injury management, these are the risks and ramifications of taking him. Of course the upside is multiple rings.

Your last sentence is the point. Timmy was sat out the playoffs in 2000 when he maybe could have gone. If not for Juwan Howard, the Spurs ring in 2001 with a healthy Duncan.

[kace]

there's no doubt that there has been a big hype with Victor since the beginning of this season, and even before. and i have to admit that i was a little bit doubtful too mainly because at this time Victor didn't play a lot at a professional level and i found the hype could be a little bit too much and annoying.

but, well, it seems difficult to live up to the hype more that Wemby did this year.

- He was named the best player, defensive player and well, any others awards there were in the french league, and led his team, a previous bad team, to the finals where they were beaten by one of the best european teams this season.

- He was dominant and very succesful for his debut with the french national team, one of the best selection of the world.

- He destroyed the opposition in his two games in the USA against the G league team and other prospects

- He improved dramatically his game and his leadership in every aspect

- He played all the games without any injury.

well, i guess there are some good reasons to this hype now

[R. DeMurre]

I think overall Dean is a good analyst, and is right more often than he's wrong, and more often than most of the mock draft guys. He's definitely got the contrarian angle and knows what to say to get people riled up, but going over his many takes over the years, I think he takes a generally smart approach and veers independently away from the trends more than most. Last year he had Sochan, Tari Eason, and Walker Kessler higher than most, and he was right about them. It's interesting to me that a few months ago, lots of people on spurstalk were talking about the injury angle/body type with Wembanyama, but now that he's the pick, a good percentage of those voices have gone quiet and are kind of circling the wagons around him in almost a parental way, or at least have become more cheerleaders than objective viewers. I think one thing Dean is pretty good at is separating the fan angle and the attempt at the objective angle-- that's the one pitfall that lots of people (extreme fans especially) have in the scouting process.

[The Truth #6]

I think there’s definitely a middle ground talking about Victor’s health concerns, but no way would I take Jaren Jackson Jr. over him, for example.

[ambchang]

If, as a draft pick, Wemby isn't on the level as Doncic, why was Doncic not picked first? , why was he traded for Tre ?

[R. DeMurre]

Yeah, and I think the analysis of tall players gets skewed to "tall players who were stars." Becoming a star is difficult in and of itself, so adding to that the necessity of being durable and tall makes it a low percentage bet regardless. Whether they became great shouldn't play into it if they were playing lots of minutes without getting injured. Shawn Bradley is the best example-- he wasn't a star, but he was a decent player who was actually taller than Wembanyama, and was a relative Iron Man in terms of durability-- he had two seasons where he played all 82 games, one where he played 81, and then a 79 and a 77 game year. That would be impressive durability for a 6'3" PG.

[scott]

Can post the article later if someone else doesn’t, but Bill Simmon’s released his trade valued for 2023 and ranks Wemby already as the 4th most valuable asset in the league (behind Joker, Giannis and Luka) in the absolutely untouchable category

[baseline bum]

If, as a draft pick, Wemby isn't on the level as Doncic, why was Doncic not picked first? , why was he traded for Tre ?

Phoenix, Sacramento, and Atlanta were morons. I don't know how you don't pick a 19 year-old with sky high potential who was the Euroleague MVP. Those three GMs should have been fired.

[exstatic]

Phoenix, Sacramento, and Atlanta were morons. I don't know how you don't pick a 19 year-old with sky high potential who was the Euroleague MVP. Those three GMs should have been fired.

TBH, Nando DeColo has been Euroleague MVP. It's kind of a mixed bag.

[rjv]

sergio rodriguez was the Euro MVP in 2014/15.

[baseline bum]

TBH, Nando DeColo has been Euroleague MVP. It's kind of a mixed bag.

At age 28. Whole different ballgame from an 18 year old doing it in a league that hates playing young NBA prospects.

[baseline bum]

sergio rodriguez was the Euro MVP in 2014/15.

Another 28 year old.

[JPB]

I think overall Dean is a good analyst, and is right more often than he's wrong, and more often than most of the mock draft guys. He's definitely got the contrarian angle and knows what to say to get people riled up, but going over his many takes over the years, I think he takes a generally smart approach and veers independently away from the trends more than most. Last year he had Sochan, Tari Eason, and Walker Kessler higher than most, and he was right about them. It's interesting to me that a few months ago, lots of people on spurstalk were talking about the injury angle/body type with Wembanyama, but now that he's the pick, a good percentage of those voices have gone quiet and are kind of circling the wagons around him in almost a parental way, or at least have become more cheerleaders than objective viewers. I think one thing Dean is pretty good at is separating the fan angle and the attempt at the objective angle-- that's the one pitfall that lots of people (extreme fans especially) have in the scouting process.

If you mention the times he was right, you gotta mention the times he was wrong, which is a lot of times. So there's as much guessing than in any other guys who are also right on some players Dean are wrong on... He's not more right than anybody else, and rather more wrong actually. But that's a typical example of the kind of contrarians who gets their validation for those times where they were right while people forget all the times they were wrong...

the thing with Dean is that he's defintely trying to make it look "smart" and make people who reads him feel smart smarter than the mass. (like conspirators do)... But truth is we're talking young prospects and there's no real "smart" way to project them. The games are here and everyone can see the same. After you scouted them, it's also about gut feeling and luck ofc... There's no magic formula or secret equation and nothing Dean can see that others couldn't, just trying that he is sometimes to hook readers more for the intellectual construction of his takes than for its real substance... Anbody a bit elaborate can do that.

His takes on Scoot are absolutely terrible, and the example of how he's trying to go agaisnt the mass in an intellectually dishonest way sometimes , picking what he needs in a few Scoot games to to fit his narractives, and totally ignoring the rest that shows the opposite. You sometimes wonder if he's not just trying to help some agents.

[rjv]

If you mention the times he was right, you gotta mention the times he was wrong, which is a lot of times. So there's as much guessing than in any other guys who are also right on some players Dean are wrong on... He's not more right than anybody else, and rather more wrong actually. But that's a typical example of the kind of contrarians who gets their validation for those times where they were right while people forget all the times they were wrong...

the thing with Dean is that he's defintely trying to make it look "smart" and make people who reads him feel smart smarter than the mass. (like conspirators do)... But truth is we're talking young prospects and there's no real "smart" way to project them. The games are here and everyone can see the same. After you scouted them, it's also about gut feeling and luck ofc... There's no magic formula or secret equation and nothing Dean can see that others couldn't, just trying that he is sometimes to hook readers more for the intellectual construction of his takes than for its real substance... Anbody a bit elaborate can do that.

His takes on Scoot are absolutely terrible, and the example of how he's trying to go agaisnt the mass in an intellectually dishonest way sometimes , picking what he needs in a few Scoot games to to fit his narractives, and totally ignoring the rest that shows the opposite. You sometimes wonder if he's not just trying to help some agents.

good point. even some of the worst ST posters get it right sometimes

[R. DeMurre]

If you mention the times he was right, you gotta mention the times he was wrong, which is a lot of times. So there's as much guessing than in any other guys who are also right on some players Dean are wrong on... He's not more right than anybody else, and rather more wrong actually. But that's a typical example of the kind of contrarians who gets their validation for those times where they were right while people forget all the times they were wrong...

the thing with Dean is that he's defintely trying to make it look "smart" and make people who reads him feel smart smarter than the mass. (like conspirators do)... But truth is we're talking young prospects and there's no real "smart" way to project them. The games are here and everyone can see the same. After you scouted them, it's also about gut feeling and luck ofc... There's no magic formula or secret equation and nothing Dean can see that others couldn't, just trying that he is sometimes to hook readers more for the intellectual construction of his takes than for its real substance... Anbody a bit elaborate can do that.

His takes on Scoot are absolutely terrible, and the example of how he's trying to go agaisnt the mass in an intellectually dishonest way sometimes , picking what he needs in a few Scoot games to to fit his narractives, and totally ignoring the rest that shows the opposite. You sometimes wonder if he's not just trying to help some agents.

Of course, agreed, it's necessary to acknowledge the hits and misses. I think it ultimately is hard to rate talent evaluators because it's sort of like rating 3pt shooters-- the difference between great and good or good and average is really pretty small: 40% vs 37%, or 37% vs 34%-- and most people aren't interested in going back and evaluating the entire scope of the scouting, but instead tend to rely on a few highlights of anecdotal evidence for or against. Some famous picks are great examples-- Presti gets credit for drafting Durant with the second pick but is actually on record saying he would've picked Oden if he'd had the first pick. I think Dean has gotten into a contrarian groove now on Scoot where he's over-defending his view because so many are criticizing it and so he's decided to double down and be more demonstrative about it. It'll be a good test to look at in the coming years, no doubt. I just think Scoot has red flags that are reasonable to question, and so many of his supporters avoid those questions. I've never seen a "generational" player with the kind of impact stats that Scoot has had two years running in the G League, in every environment-- the regular season, the showcase, and exhibitions. He's a net negative player in every sample size. That's an odd statistical glitch to have for a player of his stature & reputation. It might play out that it's entirely age and situation related, but I don't think it's crazy to question it.

[MannyIsGod]

The opening take is a bad one. You win NBA les by having a top player on the team and surrounding him by really good players. The hardest thing to come by are legit top 10 players in the NBA. It is undeniable that Wemby has a ceiling of being a top 10 player in the NBA and even if there's also a substantial chance he is injured and doesn't reach that ultimate potential the fact that he has a ceiling that high and a relatively high percentage chance of reaching it makes him INCREDIBLY valuable. There is absolutely no way you trade him for anything Orlando has because no one on Orlando is going to reach that level. There's a lot to be said about making smart draft picks as the first round goes on and picking players that have high floor and can be meaningful contributors but that is just bull with top lottery picks. Especially when there is talent like Wemby on the board.

[MannyIsGod]

Of course, agreed, it's necessary to acknowledge the hits and misses. I think it ultimately is hard to rate talent evaluators because it's sort of like rating 3pt shooters-- the difference between great and good or good and average is really pretty small: 40% vs 37%, or 37% vs 34%-- and most people aren't interested in going back and evaluating the entire scope of the scouting, but instead tend to rely on a few highlights of anecdotal evidence for or against. Some famous picks are great examples-- Presti gets credit for drafting Durant with the second pick but is actually on record saying he would've picked Oden if he'd had the first pick. I think Dean has gotten into a contrarian groove now on Scoot where he's over-defending his view because so many are criticizing it and so he's decided to double down and be more demonstrative about it. It'll be a good test to look at in the coming years, no doubt. I just think Scoot has red flags that are reasonable to question, and so many of his supporters avoid those questions. I've never seen a "generational" player with the kind of impact stats that Scoot has had two years running in the G League, in every environment-- the regular season, the showcase, and exhibitions. He's a net negative player in every sample size. That's an odd statistical glitch to have for a player of his stature & reputation. It might play out that it's entirely age and situation related, but I don't think it's crazy to question it.

I have never seen Scoot called a generational player.

[R. DeMurre]

I have never seen Scoot called a generational player.

I just entered "scoot henderson generational player" in the Google search box and got a bunch of them. Here's one: https://www.sportskeeda.com/basketba...0high%20school.

I'm not debating whether he is or not, but some people definitely feel he is.

[MannyIsGod]

Also, he definitely isn't the same draft prospect as our great Tim Duncan, but lets not forget Wemby is 19. Was Tim Duncan at 19 the draft prospect Wemby is? Tim averaged less than 10 points and 10 boards with Wake Forest as a freshman. Does anyone here believe Wemby is not averaging way better than that as a Freshman in the ACC? I'm not saying he's going to be better than Timmy, but I think people are losing sight of the fact that the kid is 19 and just had an amazing year playing PROFESSIONAL basketball.