By now, most fans just want the draft to happen. Who do we get? What does our team look like now? While executives are still crossing their fingers.
Board consensus seems to be that the Spurs cannot get into the top 10 without trading Keldon Johnson. And manufacturing a second FRP out of thin air can be very difficult. OKC did it last year, giving three middling future FRPs to the Knicks for the #11 pick. I know this has been bashed in these forums, but Presti may have been undecided between Ousmane Dieng, taken at that pick, and Jaylen Williams, taken immediately after. If it winds up that buying Dieng's pick got them Williams, maybe it was a win.
Another recent trade was Houston giving two pretty heavily protected FRPs to OKC for the #16 in 2021, which was Alperen Sengun. These picks, Detroit and Washington, do not look particularly great. (I think Presti lost both trades. We'll see how Dieng goes; he should have kept Sengun.)
tl;dr You didn't need to read any of the above. Silly you.
Spurs sh*t
It's not clear who in this draft will want to trade out of the round, or even back from the mid-lottery. Teams like Dallas want players to contribute immediately, even if they're willing to move off the #10. There's an outside chance Orlando might sell off the #11 for future picks.
To me, the likelihood is finding a team that is completely strapped and is short on future picks. Couple things work in the Spurs' favor: with the new CBA, cheapo-stinko contracts are becoming incredibly important. SRPs may have more value than we've ever seen. And... the Spurs have a lot of them. My targets:
Miami - Heat are in a conference that can't get its ish together. Their salary situation is ungodly. They're at $171 million with a lot of decisions and slots to fill. Apparently they're going after Lillard. Lowry is a $29.7 million expiring. Duncan Robinson makes $19 million for the next three seasons (last season partially guaranteed). Victor Oladipo is owed nearly $10 million this coming season, but is basically done.
Miami does not own a single SRP until 2029. Not even this year. Can the Spurs ask for their #18 this year by taking on salary and going SaltBae with a handful of future seconds? Would they have to use their #33?
Golden State - This team is in bad shape. They're at over $200 million without even considering Draymond Green's situation. Klay Thompson is a $41.2 million expiring. Andrew Wiggins makes $24-30 million/season for the next four seasons. They can shed Kuminga (~$6 million) and Gary Payton II (~$8.7 million). They're trying to move Jordan Poole, whose huge ~$30 million contract kicks in this summer. It's not clear who can be moved and how.
Golden State owes their FRP to Memphis next year, 1-4 protected. They don't have a SRP this year or next year. Unlike the Heat, I don't see any easy way of absorbing contracts, but we may be able to get their #19 this year for a FRP and SRP next year as a basis. May need to offer the #33 somehow.
Brooklyn - The Nets are in better salary shape than you'd think with the gargantuan Ben Simmons contract, which is for only two more seasons. Sure, they could shed Joe Harris, $20 million, one season. They have wing 3-and-D guys they're trying to move and they don't control their own picks until 2028, owing them outright or as swaps to Houston. They do have other picks coming in, such as from Phoenix.
Brooklyn does not have a FRP or SRP next year. They have the #21 and #22 this year, and may want to trade up. But can we entice them with a FRP and a SRP next?
Other teams - Atlanta, New Orleans, and other teams aren't clear to me what they'll do in this draft. For purposes of this post, they have plenty of future draft capital. Lakers will probably use theirs, as will the Raptors. Thunder will never trade with us, and their coffers are full. Rockets are looking to move the #20, apparently, but see themselves as rivals.
Trading into the 20s - There's chatter about moving into the 20s from 33, but this is harder than we think. We have Charlotte, Indiana, Utah, who have too many picks already, and then Portland, Sacramento, Memphis at 23-25, and I'm not sure why they'd want to trade back.
What would a 18 or 19 pick be used for? - One (or both??) of these picks could entice a team in the lottery joined with cap or picks. Dallas wants a win-now player but has other needs. The Spurs could trade them, or another team, #17 plus future capital or taking on a bad contract or two to get to 10 or even 8 (Washington). Or a team like Toronto or New Orleans who wouldn't mind bumping back several slots. Or... the Spurs can just grab one of those players who drops.
just to get it out of the way, brooklyn is not in a position to be selling off the limited draft assets they have just to move off a ben simmons contract for 2 years in a window of time when they're not obviously trying to compete anyway. its not like the lakers with westbrook.
theyre just gonna eat the simmons contract for 2 years
I like the promise of this thread. I think all of the teams you listed are likely to move off of their picks(I mean 1 pick if they have multiple ). It's purely a question of how the FO views this season. Wemby says he wants to compete ASAP. Will the FO acquiesce to that or build slower? There are good arguments to be made for pushing to get in the 6-10 range, there are good arguments to be made for pushing for the 16-22 range and picking one of the high upside guys who's undoubtedly going to fall, and there's a good argument for standing pat and making a bigger move in FA/trades. I have zero feel for what the FO wants to do.
My thoughts though are if we can get into the top 10 I'd target Walker, a Thompson, or Gradey . If I could get to the late teens I'd go NSJ, one of the other PG's that could fall (Wallace/ JHS), Rupert, or Hawkins (in that order). If I stood pat, I'd just go BPA at #33 and save my draft capital for trades this summer.
I'm happy to wait and just see what the FO does (since they obviously know more about basketball than me)... but, I really wouldn't want them to trade Keldon, and I'd really like to not have any 2nd rounders join the team for the next couple years (we have quan y, but we need to combine them for quality).
I would trade both 2nd rounders and a combination of 2-3 of the Hornet, Raptors, and Bulls picks to get one of the good PGs at the top of the draft... and save free agency for next summer.
That's fair. With this thread, though, I was trying to cancel out what we might want from any pick and isolate specifically what teams might possibly be targets, the needs of those teams, and what might apeal to them.
Sorry about that. How about Washington? If they are starting a tank, the #8 pick won't get them any franchise player. They have 6 first round picks in the next 7 years (I believe) and the swaps they get from the Suns aren't going to help them. We have quan y of picks and we need quality. They have a single quality pick and they need quan y. The problem that I see is that (since they traded next year's pick) they can't trade this year's pick until immediately after they draft him unless they pick up another 1st rounder before then.
Ok..in that light-
Top 10-
Orlando #6 Devin + Charlotte might very well do it (although i wouldn't from our perspective)..They might want KJ + Cha + Toronto or Cha + Tor + our unprotected 2024. I think any of those packages at least generate a discussion.
Indiana- They might want KJ + Cha + Toronto or Cha + Tor + our unprotected 2024 that I have above as a starting point.
11-15
Orlando- if they keep #6 they may not want a 2nd rookie. Chi or Toronto + a top 6 protected 2024 would appeal to them in that scenario.
16-23
Utah #16- if they can't package it to move up our Toronto pick by itself would be a good starting point.
Miami- their main focus is on positioning themselves for a big fish like Lillard. I'm not sure they will know what they want to do by Thursday. Hypothetically, oladipo + 18 for #33 and a couple 2nd's might appeal to them. I'm not sure they want to move Lowry yet because they may need him in a Lillard trade.
GS #19- the Charlotte or Chicago pick + 33 might interest them
Brooklyn- same as GS ..
All dependent on their other moves....
Washington is an interesting target, yeah. My thinking is exactly the same -- they would probably value more young players than just one. Frankly, there's a lot of murmurs that they'll take Black and that's an awful choice both for him and the franchise.
One thing about gaming this out a little bit (in my first post) is that the way to GSW or Miami may not take a huge outpouring of firsts, so long as they 1) could use cap relief and/or 2) SRPs are valuable to them given how in the hole they are for years.
I could also see the Spurs taking a player like Duncan Robinson, who can at least shoot, but don't see that he's worth taking on just the #18.
In any case, yes, one of my questions is what Washington would want to move off the 8. Mind, other teams like okc might be looking there, too. I'm guessing they might bounce down to 18 if they get another couple picks.
Failing that, which is likely, then you're either trying to get the 18/19-type pick to get one of your targets or you try to flip up to 13 or so. I think one of Black/Cason/Bufkin will be at 13 or 14.
Failing
If you could do something to land inside top 10 this draft but not give up Keldon or Vassell or any core pieces would you be open even if cost was high?
Mavs Get: Ayton + CHA 1st from SA
Suns Get: THJ + Graham + Bassey + TOR pick f/SA+ 3 2nds from SA (from Graham deal)
Spurs Get: Pick 10 + Bertans
Maybe it takes giving Suns the CHI pick as well instead of the 2nds?
So 2 firsts & 3 2nds + Graham + Bassey for 10?
Or 3 firsts + Graham + Bassey for 10?
3 firsts is a lot, but if its the 2 firsts (TOR + CHA) + a bunch of the 2nds from Graham and the only players we give up are non core? I would seriously consider that
I wouldn't give those 3 firsts for #10 and honestly, I don’t think you'd have to. Ayton isnt going to garner that kind of return.
If I were giving 3 picks itd have to be 7 or higher and would still depend on who's available.
I might do the three FRPs for #8 if the player they want is there.
So what about TOR Pick + CHA Pick + 3 2nds + Graham + Bassey?
You are only net giving up 1 first (TOR pick capped at 6) since you are getting 10 back. You can guarantee the TOR pick conveys basically (already high likelihood to be fair) at pick 10 for the cost of CHA pick + 2-3 2nds
Ya is more about the player. If SA would be willing to trade 3 firsts for pick 7 to get Black and he falls to 10 and it takes 3 firsts there who cares etc?
If 8 was available, I'd happily do 2 FRP and both of our SRPs (if that gets it done). If we were to get a second FRP, I wouldn't want any more draft picks past that this year. Our #33 this year is pretty close to the first round.
I'd probably do that for #10...
Agreed. Its more about the available player than the position..
That's true (although Black wouldn't be my target). Im making the assumption that the player wouldn't be there at 10..
Ya - Im just speaking from SA perspective…they have my trust on player evaluation so more about cost and where we draw the line on do it vs not
Would be more about does PHX value getting pick 10 this year more than getting depth (Graham + Bassey) that they will need alongside getting a future first + multiple seconds to replenish all the picks they gave up?
Maybe…
Pretty sure Phoenix is all in and tben some, so theyd definitely prioritize depth/current players over the pick. The question would be, 'is our package of current players + absorbing Bertans better than they can get elsewhere for #10'?
You set the deal framework up now at #8. If he’s there you pick him, you don’t wait to see if he drops to 10. While trades happen during the draft, they’re rarely spontaneous. I mean, with that logic, if he falls to #14, you should still pay 3 FRPs because you would have at 8. Picks have a value, and 8 is worth more than 10, so you don’t throw the 8 bag at pick 10.
For sure - just saying SA has the extra picks to use and could replenish some of what PHX gave up so they have picks moving forward alongside being both able to absorb salary and send decent players too
I think you are missing the point some; its discussion of hypothetical and real simultaneously. Im not saying wait until 10; I was suggestion a general framework for keeping Keldon and using picks to get a pick like 10 but then also discussing more of the real world aspects of value and players etc..
I mentioned in another thread:
What about potential trade partners who’s salary cap situation put them in a position where they need cheap depth now to fill out the roster? #33 becomes a very attractive spot for them (since they’ll have their pick of players who fell). Those teams may very well feel comfortable giving us a future protected FRP for #33 now.
We don’t really need more FRPs, but they would just add to the war chest of assets to make moves with later.
I'd have the same idea - like the OKC - DENVER trade. 44, Charlotte pick, one of the 2024 seconds to Milwaukee (or Boston, or...) for a distant (very weakly protected) 1st. Upgrade the value of assets, push them into the future when we'll have to add depth on the cheap, cheap depth for a contender now.
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