Are there any recent examples of reported promises that actually turned out to be true?
I don't think Lavine is a second star in a winning team, not at a max contract under the new CBA, which I don't think will age well given he's had multiple knee surgeries and misses about a quarter of his games. The cost of opportunity is too high, I'd rather use that salary slot on another (2 way) star, or split it among several players.
Well, if "The Monty Show" sauces say so, I'm sure his 6K followers will appreciate.
My own sauces tell me he's yet another impostor, social media wannabe...
Oh, and how nice of Utah to be willing to give up a FRP to get Scoot and Amen...
Pelton's picks for Spurs
2007 Nick Fazekas
2008 Mario Chalmers
2009 DeJuan Blair (overall Pelton #1)
2010 Hassan Whiteside
2011 Kawhi Leonard | | Shelvin Mack
2012 Marcus Denmon
2013 Jeff Withey
2014 Nikola Jokic (Pelton #4)
2015 R.J. Hunter
2016 Fred Van Vleet (Pelton #3)
2017 Monte Morris
2018 Dzana Musa
2019 Dedric Lawson | Bol Bol
2020 Tyrese Haliburton (Pelton #3)
2021 Alperen Sengun (Pelton #1)
2022 Walker Kessler (Pelton #2) | Patrick Baldwin, Jr. | Jacob Gilyard
I thought exactly the same thing. They must mean either or and not both. So they'd give up a first to go from 9 to 4. Houston might trade down for one first. I don't think a single future first rounder will get you from 9 to 2.
Pelton's 5 year projection compared to FiveThirtyEight 2023 Rookie VORP
These were the top 30 ESPN consensus scout/stat picks. I am too cheap to discover the Pelton picks for 20, 22-25, 27-30.
1) Chet Holmgren DNP
2) Walker Kessler #1 dominant best rookie
3) AJ Griffin #4
4) Keegan Murray #3
5) Tari Eason #2
6) Zach Edey DNP late withdrawal from draft
7) Dyson Daniels #5
8) Jabari Smith #82 (not nearly as good when not playing next to Kessler)
9) Jeremy Sochan #11T
10) Benedict Mathurin #16T
11) Jalen Duren #10
12) Patrick Baldwin Jr. #59T
13) Jacob Gilyard #45T tied with Julian Champagnie
14) Hyungjung Lee DNP undrafted played G-League
15) Kennedy Chandler #66T
16) Christian Braun #8
17) Jabari Walker #79 (best rookie named Jabari)
18) Trevor Keels #45T also tied with Julian Champagnie
19) Marcus Bagley DNP late withdrawal from draft
21) Keon Ellis #34T
26) Blake Wesley #84 second worst rookie in league, second worst rookie for Spurs, worst per minute.
39) Jaden Ivey #83
41) Kendall Brown #23T tied with Dominick Barlow
50) TyTy Washington Jr. #74T
51) Paolo Banchero #63T
53) Mark Williams #11T with Sochan
54) Malaki Branham #85 worst rookie in the league
61) EJ Liddell DNP injured 2-way Pelican
70) Ochai Agbaji #45T with Julian Champagnie
71) Johnny Davis #74T
Last edited by Drom John; 06-18-2023 at 10:50 AM.
Pelton's picks for Spurs compared to Spurs picks by B-R VORP first five years in NBA
2007 Nick Fazekas (DNP) instead of Tiago Splitter (5.4), + 5.4 for Spurs, +5.4 for Spurs ulative.
2008 Mario Chalmers (4.2) instead of George Hill (8.2), + 4.0 for Spurs, +9.4 for Spurs ulative.
2009 DeJuan Blair, +9.4 for Spurs ulative.
2010 Hassan Whiteside (6.3), instead of James Anderson (-0.8), +7.1 for Pelton, +2.3 for Spurs ulative.
2011 Kawhi Leonard | Shelvin Mack (0.1) instead of Cory Joseph (2.3), +2.2 for Spurs, +4.5 for Spurs ulative.
2012 No FRP for Spurs.
2013 Jeff Withey (1.3) instead of Livio Jean-Charles (DNP), +1.3 for Pelton, +3.2 for Spurs ulative.
2014 Nikola Jokic (25.2) instead of Kyle Anderson (4.5), +20.7 for Pelton, +17.5 for Pelton ulative.
2015 R.J. Hunter (0.0) instead of Nikola Milutinove (DNP), wash, +17.5 for Pelton ulative.
2016 Fred Van Vleet (6.3) instead of Dejounte Murray (7.9), +1.6 for Spurs, +15.9 for Pelton ulative.
2017 Monte Morris (4.2) instead of Derrick White (5.3), +1.1 for Spurs, +14.8 for Pelton ulative.
2018 Dzana Musa (-0.4), instead of Lonnie Walker IV (-1.1), +0.7 for Pelton, +15.5 for Pelton ulative.
2019 Dedric Lawson (DNP) instead of Luka Samanic (-0.3) | Bol Bol (0.3) instead of Keldon Johnson (1.4), +0.8 for Spurs, +14.7 for Pelton ulative.
2020 Tyrese Haliburton (9.0) instead of Devin Vassell (1.6), +7.4 for Pelton, +22.1 for Pelton ulative.
2021 Alperen Sengun (2.3) instead of Joshua Primo (-0.8), +3.1 for Pelton, +25.2 for Pelton ulative.
2022 Walker Kessler (2.1) instead of Jeremy Sochan (-0.7) | Patrick Baldwin, Jr. (0.0) instead of Malaki Branham (-1.3) | Jacob Gilyard (0.0) instead of Blake Wesley (-1.3), +5.4 for Pelton, +30.6 for Pelton ulative.
Last edited by Drom John; 06-18-2023 at 11:45 AM.
Many of the picks that you compare the Spurs' pick with.. barely played any minutes. Patrick Baldwin or Jacob Gilyard for e.g. It makes zero sense to list these things without context - minutes played etc.
You guys, I'm starting to get the jitters. What if this turns out to be a Bowie/Jordan (or Oden/Durant) situation where Victor gets injured into obscurity and Scoot Henderson is the greatest guard of his generation?
jk...just wanted to throw that out into the universe so it doesn't happen.
Scoot won’t. Miller might be something on the right team.You guys, I'm starting to get the jitters. What if this turns out to be a Bowie/Jordan (or Oden/Durant) situation where Victor gets injured into obscurity and Scoot Henderson is the greatest guard of his generation?
And that's why you never draft for position with a pick that high. Imagine if the Lakers pulled a Portland and said I don't want to draft Magic because we already have Norm Nixon. Let's get David Greenwood instead.You guys, I'm starting to get the jitters. What if this turns out to be a Bowie/Jordan (or Oden/Durant) situation where Victor gets injured into obscurity and Scoot Henderson is the greatest guard of his generation?
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...etsharden-buzz
Latest draft buzz. One thing noted is that it sounds like Houston is unlikely to keep that pick at 20…wonder if they’d be a good potential trade partner if one of the guys we’re high on ends up falling into that range. Think most of the popular first round candidates (Wallace, JHS, Bufkin, Coulibaly) are unlikely to be there but crazier things have happened.
Good find. The Rockets might be willing to take the CHA pick plus #33. Maybe they would take two other future seconds (instead of #33) to defray the risk of the CHA pick never conveying.
just curious as to whether or not houston would have any interest in helping out the spurs.
Nope.... and I'm not sure if they're intelligent enough to help out themselves..
I think people overestimate the whole “X team won’t want to help us out” stuff. If a team thinks a trade is beneficial to them, they’ll likely do it IMO. Houston just traded with Dallas last year. I can maybe buy that teams are wary with trading with us if they feel like we always “win”, but even that’s probably overstated. GMs have egos and aren’t going around thinking they’ll get outsmarted by SA just because someone else had it happen to them.
On a side note, interesting Vegas lines here: https://twitter.com/noceilingsnba/st...RJS8_UemWCmgcA
O/U for Wallace/Bufkin/Coulibaly all a bit lower than I would’ve expected. If you’re of the mindset that Vegas has a great pulse on these things, then means it’s likely all of these guys are gone by the 16-20 range.
cant blame him. i also have questions about keldon's long term viability as a starter, but he's a 23 year old player who should still be getting better, on a pretty good contract that will only get better. no urgency to move him now unless we got a stupid good offer
also means targeting a top 10 guy like black is basically not happening. have to hope the other PGs like bufkin/wallace/hood schifino slide a bit, such that at least one of them makes it past the lottery
I don’t agree with the last part…Spurs have so many picks. Getting pick 8-11 seems doable if SA is willing to part with 2-3 future firsts IMVHO
i mean yeah, in addition to our own, we have 2 unprotected and 3 protected first rounders. we obviously can make all kinds of plays. i just dont see the spurs moving 3 firsts just go get a a high end role player guy like anthony black or jerace walker.
Which of those teams is willing to trade out of the round?
Yea been saying the past week that I didn’t think there was any way they traded Keldon, especially after he was the only player invited to that event at The Rock at La Cantera last week and he was signing the building and partaking in photo-ops with ownership and everything.
I get the frustration with Keldon and understand why he would be the easiest/most desirable trade piece, but I do think PATFO really value him more than most of the fan base. Not only is he young and on a team-friendly deal, but he seems to be arguably the most liked personality in the locker room, as well as being a high-character kid. That matters to the Spurs more than most franchises. Not saying they won’t trade them eventually down the road, but I think they want to see what they have with he and the team around Wemby for a while first before making any permanent decisions tbh.
Yeah it’s a little premature to act like we absolutely need to get rid of Keldon just because the theoretical fit seems iffy prior to even seeing him play alongside Victor. Would be interested to see the median outcome of the #10 pick in the draft - my guess is that it’d be a worse player than Keldon. Giving up Keldon + future first rounder(s) for a top 10 pick just doesn’t seem like the something the Spurs would even consider. His contract is friendly enough to where he can easily be moved down the road if the fit truly does end up becoming an issue.
My “best case” scenario for the draft is snagging Wallace if he falls into the 15-20 range. Think the asking price for Black will be too steep and I’m highest on Wallace out of the Wallace/Bufkin/JHS trio commonly being discussed.
In reality, the most likely scenario is we don’t trade up and just take a guy at 33 who unexpectedly fell out of the first round. Not as sexy, but seems like there are several interesting players who could wind up being available…and honestly getting Victor is plenty excitement for the night
Yeah, but... you have to see, when the time comes to pull the trigger, is the juice worth the squeeze?
And that is a bit unknowable, even if they player they want is available.
Yeah it’s a little premature to act like we absolutely need to get rid of Keldon just because the theoretical fit seems iffy prior to even seeing him play alongside Victor. Would be interested to see the median outcome of the #10 pick in the draft - my guess is that it’d be a worse player than Keldon. Giving up Keldon + future first rounder(s) for a top 10 pick just doesn’t seem like the something the Spurs would even consider. His contract is friendly enough to where he can easily be moved down the road if the fit truly does end up becoming an issue.
My “best case” scenario for the draft is snagging Wallace if he falls into the 15-20 range.Think the asking price for Black will be too steep and I’m highest on Wallace out of the Wallace/Bufkin/JHS trio commonly being discussed.
In reality, the most likely scenario is we don’t trade up and just take a guy at 33 who unexpectedly fell out of the first round. Not as sexy, but seems like there are several interesting players who could wind up being available…and honestly getting Victor is plenty excitement for the night
I like him a lot too, but everything I’ve seen on him the past week is that he’s projected in the lottery. Obv we don’t know what’s going to happen, but the more I look at the draft, the more I agree he’s going top-14. Multiple teams in the lottery need a PG and guys like Keyonte George, Jordan Hawkins, and Nick Smith seem to be slipping out of the lottery, if these draft “insiders” are to be believed. We’ll see, but Wallace would be an awesome get and a nice fit on this roster.
Washington -- Can't see them trading out of the round after dumping Bradley Beal. Their fans will riot.
Utah -- Has way too many future picks as it is. Are trying to trade up or will take a PG of their choice.
Dallas -- Needs a contributing player out of this draft somehow, will not just trade out.
Orlando -- May trade up using 6 and 11, will probably just nab Gradey who should be here.
If any team is trading down into 8 or 11, that team will likely not want to trade the spot out of the round.
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