I understand that the notion a 22-60 team could add 18 wins to its win total just by adding a 19-year old rookie appears ridiculous on the surface. But hear me out first.
Last year’s team was tanking, which meant it was purposefully holding out players who otherwise could’ve played or giving extra minutes to players who probably weren’t ready for playing time in an effort to lose games. If last year’s team had been at full strength and actively trying to win games, instead of actively trying to lose them, I believe it could’ve won up to 30 games.
Factor in internal improvement from the core young players and whatever free agents the team could add this offseason, and I believe that could add another 5 wins to the win total and make it 35. Now add in a generational prospect in Victor Wembanyama on top of that and I believe that could get you another extra 5 wins, bringing the total to 40.
In summary, assuming reasonably good health, I believe this coming season’s Spurs team is capable of winning 35-40 games and competing for a spot in the play-in tournament. If things break their way in the tournament, they could even make the playoffs.
Unlike what some around here say, this team has a good amount of young talent. It's also talent that can be mutiplied by Victor's abilities. Keldon and Vassell are going to get all kinds of open looks, for example. Sochan, Malaki, and Zach looked really promising late in the year. Plus the league, esp the WC, is a wreck right now. And the defense is going to be vastly improved by effort, team focus, and Wembanyama.
I wouldn't be surprised at all to see close to 40 wins.
The prediction will remain hypothetical because the Spurs have their eyes on another high lottery pick and under the guise of “seeing what they have” and “finding out what works” will again pad the loss column.
I don't see it. Who are they tanking for next year? I see it more like them taking a year to see who fits with Wemby and can be kept when they make a push to start winning.
DraftKings has the Spurs as +300 to win 35 games and +650 to win 40 games. Maybe I’m being a homer but I really like those odds tbh. Feel like we would’ve been a 30-35 win team last year if healthy and not tanking, and now we’re adding Wembanyama + core will be another year older + won’t be tanking + have money to spend in FA to add a few veteran pieces. Seems like 35-40 wins is almost a toss-up IMO.
I'll make a not-so-bold prediction for how the season goes.
* Spurs struggle during the first half of the season. Pop experiments with lineups per usual.
* Wembanyama gets acclimated to NBA rules. Experiences foul trouble but is spectacular.
* Spurs finish the first half of the season playing .500 ball, around 30-30.
* Wembanyama makes the All-Star Game as a rookie.
* Roster and roles solidify in the second half of the season. Spurs play .700 ball. Pick up about 15 more wins.
* Finish the regular season with 45 wins, good for a top-6 seed in the West.
Wembanyama leads all rookies in triple-doubles. Finishes top-3 in the league in blocks and steals.
Wins Rookie of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year.
And I think this is a conservative estimate. Could turn out even better.
* As Uriel said -- barring major injuries (knock on *all* the wood).
I watched probably 75 games last year. My opinion is this:
The Spurs didn't always look like they were tanking to most people. The reason is because they tanked defensively harder than any team in history. They intentionally left three point shooters open in the corners. It is exactly the opposite of the offensive strategy Pop pioneered with Bruce Bowen. In addition, they always left bigs going to the front of the rim for putbacks or easy finishes. This took a while to figure out, as the Spurs accidentally started off strong the first three or four weeks of the season. Some nights they could blow teams out on accident just from hot shooting. The giveaway is how often Pop didn't go Serbian on guys for messing up rotations or giving up threes.
I feel like, with the combination of shoring up the defense, not resting players and holding them out for piddly minor injuries, young player development, and of course Wemby, the Spurs can exceed Uriel's prediction. No telling how many waves they can make if everything goes right.
Would be nice to make the playoffs next season. Never know!
Won’t be surprised if they make the playoffs given how awful the NBA is overall right now.
Not a stretch. I mean the tank is over. That’s how impactful getting Wemby is. You’re not gonna just try to tread water with a talent like him. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the Spurs didn’t trade for another lottery pick and take a pg, but did trade their #33 pick for future 2nd’s. I anticipate that’s to leave a roster spot for bringing an established pg abroad.
West is looking wild for next year.
There is not one team that is obviously gonna try to tank, at least for the first half of the season. Reality and injuries can always change things.
Denver is clearly locked at the top. Everyone else, including playoff teams, got some pretty big question marks entering the season. It's gonna be a dog fight in the standing all year.
I've been telling my co-workers that the Spurs will make the playoffs next year. They aren't tanking next year, their core of Wemby/Keldon/Sochan/Vassell is better than they are getting credit for, and their bench won't be filled with players designed for the tank.
As mentioned above it's not a coincidence they had historically bad defensive stats during a tanking year.
Throughout the year when they wanted to remind the league of their talent, they had wins like the one against Denver on March 10th.
this exactly. Add to that that Keldon, Vassell and Sochan missed a combined 89 games.
Spurs began 5-2 last year and that was all the coaches needed to see. after that, the tank began. They knew we weren’t remotely close to championship material but they saw that we have a decent team to be able to get wins. Add wemby to the mix and we can be pretty good. So they took the risk, tanked and came out on top.
and now they will be able to see what this team currently constructed will be able to do with adding a superstar.
I think the biggest factor is Wemby seems like he wants to win now and make a mark in the league.
As long as he doesn't hit a wall I think the team will try to support his ambition rather than piddle around a year.
Getting into the playoffs and experiencing playoff basketball is not a bad goal for this team. We also have the assets to make deals as needed throughout the season.
I’m definitely taking the over on 40, I will on 50 too.
There were seventeen teams last year who won between 34-45 games. That's a lot of mediocrity. Denver only won 53 games. Philly won 54, Boston and Milwaukee won 57 and 58.
There are a lot of wins to be had from pretty much all those teams.
Yeah not a bold take...here's mine...contenders
Agree 150% - and this is before we take into account the upcoming free agency season (which may amount to nothing for the Spurs, but we’ll have to wait and see).
I think Wemby is going to force the Spurs to move at a faster pace than they may have otherwise planned, but the organization will in no way be disappointed in this. We are already seeing it with things like Wemby wanting to play in Summer League, saying he wants to play as many games as possible, etc. No rookie has averages 23ppg since Allen Iverson, and I think that maybe changes this year.
Spurs could have easily won 5-8 more games last season (and I’d say this is also true of DET and HOU and CHA… the tanking was hard and deliberate last year). As you mention, we will see improvement from a year of seasoning, and then adding Wemby… its a recipe for the play-in or even a 5-6 seed. Only 5 games separated #4 from #10 at the end of last season, lots of parity in the West.
As you guys already said, there's no doubt that this roster would've won 30+ games last season without all the blatant tanking and DNPs. Not even a question.
Not a great roster, but everyone is young and will be improving, so even without Victor it should be a ~35 wins roster assuming noone gets injured and Pop actually tries to win every game.
Others teams will also improve, but if Victor is the real deal I'm sure Spurs will be in the play-in race until the end.
There's no point in tanking anymore. We got ourselves a generational talent and have a truckload of picks.
A lot of teams are on the brink of collapsing and we'll definitely trade for an all-star within a year or two.
If all goes according to plan, we should become a guaranteed top6 team within two years.
Denver is the only legit force in the West, Grizzlies should be in there but their star player is a moron.
Kings are great, but that roster has limited ceiling with no room for improvement.
After that, everything is open.
Suns, Clippers, Warriors, Lakers are close to their expiry date and it's going to get really ugly because they hav nothing to keep it up after star players fall off.
Timberwolves, Pelicans and Mavericks are joke organizations despite having star players.
Blazers need to get rid of Dame.
Leaving us with Spurs, Rockets, OKC and Jazz in rising team category.
I'd say Spurs are in the best position after OKC, so getting back to being a legit playoff team should happen in no time.
Spurs will have a winning record this season, no question
I think Spurs end up with 40-45 wins.
Depends what we do in free agency. Pick up a vet and a rotational player, and we are set for a .500 season.
i don't see wemby being high on assists
If the Spurs don’t significantly improve in the win column, that’s more indicative of Wemby’s talent than it is the players around him. Great players can carry their team in the regular season. It’s the playoffs where the talent surrounding your franchise player gets exposed.
My guess is? Yes, the Spurs will definitely win a lot in the regular season.
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