The Value of Future FRPs

[timvp]

That 2024 Raptors first round pick looking juicy right now

[Ariel]

That 2024 Raptors first round pick looking juicy right now

But Charlotte's stock is free falling...

[rascal]

But Charlotte's stock is free falling...

Charlotte's pick will convey into two future 2nds which will make the Spurs very happy.

[Mr. Body]

Charlotte will be better than last year. Mark Williams raises their floor quite a bit.

[slick'81]

Charlotte's pick will convey into two future 2nds which will make the Spurs very happy.

master plan,tbh

[Kurik]

Spurs collecting second round picks like a Gacha game.

[buttsR4rebounding]

SPURS SECOND ROUND PICK STORE
We have the Wright pick for you!!!!!!

[exstatic]

Charlotte will be better than last year. Mark Williams raises their floor quite a bit.

They have him and Miller added to a 43 win team from year before last. I don’t understand why peeps are so down on the pick.

[scott]

This came up in another thread, and I had been thinking of starting a thread ranking the Spurs future picks, but I'm not as illustrious as some of the other posters on this board and I wasn't sure anyone cared. But since it came up...

Here is how I would rank all of our yet-to-be-taken FRPs, WITHOUT fully considering the time value of picks (which I think is very real. A pick this year is worth more than a pick next year with equal protections and so on), though I did factor in some time element. What I didn't consider is trying to crystal ball how good teams will be in the future. So for now, a Spurs unprotected FRP is worth more than a ATL unprotected FRP because the Spurs are currently a lotto team and ATL is currently a play-in team. I only went out to 2028.

1. 2023 Spurs FRP (duh. It's #1 overall)
2. 2026 Spurs FRP w/ ATL pick Swap (this is the most valuable because it has the added benefit of being able to be high based on the outcome of two teams, not just one)
3. 2028 Spurs FRP w/ BOS pick Swap (this is slightly less valuable than the 2026 pick with the ATL swap, because BOS's swap is protected for the #1 overall pick)
4. 2024 Spurs FRP
5. 2025 Spurs FRP
6. 2025 Hawks FRP
7. 2027 Spurs FRP
8. 2027 Hawks FRP
9. 2024 Raptors FRP (Top 6 protected)
10. 2025 Bull FRP (Top 10 Protected)
11. 2024 Hornets FRP (Lotto Protected)

Aside from perhaps some shuffling based on time value of picks, would you rank these any differently?

Updated for the Bullock trade and the fact that we no longer have a 2023 FRP (we used it on Wemby)


1. 2026 Spurs FRP w/ ATL pick Swap (this is the most valuable because it has the added benefit of being able to be high based on the outcome of two teams, not just one)
2. 2030 Spurs FRP w/ DAL pick Swap (placed above the 2028 because that one has a Top 1 protection on the Swap)
3. 2028 Spurs FRP w/ BOS pick Swap (this is slightly less valuable than the 2026 pick with the ATL swap, because BOS's swap is protected for the #1 overall pick)
4. 2024 Spurs FRP
5. 2025 Spurs FRP
6. 2025 Hawks FRP
7. 2027 Spurs FRP
8. 2027 Hawks FRP
9. 2024 Raptors FRP (Top 6 protected)
10. 2025 Bull FRP (Top 10 Protected)
11. 2024 Hornets FRP (Lotto Protected)

[spurraider21]

Updated for the Bullock trade and the fact that we no longer have a 2023 FRP (we used it on Wemby)


1. 2026 Spurs FRP w/ ATL pick Swap (this is the most valuable because it has the added benefit of being able to be high based on the outcome of two teams, not just one)
2. 2030 Spurs FRP w/ DAL pick Swap (placed above the 2028 because that one has a Top 1 protection on the Swap)
3. 2028 Spurs FRP w/ BOS pick Swap (this is slightly less valuable than the 2026 pick with the ATL swap, because BOS's swap is protected for the #1 overall pick)
4. 2024 Spurs FRP
5. 2025 Spurs FRP
6. 2025 Hawks FRP
7. 2027 Spurs FRP
8. 2027 Hawks FRP
9. 2024 Raptors FRP (Top 6 protected)
10. 2025 Bull FRP (Top 10 Protected)
11. 2024 Hornets FRP (Lotto Protected)

might as well add the spurs 2029 FRP to the list since we're already pushing out to 2030 picks

[joeyjfive]

They have him and Miller added to a 43 win team from year before last. I don’t understand why peeps are so down on the pick.

Bridges too. I’m expecting them to make the playoffs this year barring injuries.

[scott]

might as well add the spurs 2029 FRP to the list since we're already pushing out to 2030 picks

1. 2026 Spurs FRP w/ ATL pick Swap (this is the most valuable because it has the added benefit of being able to be high based on the outcome of two teams, not just one)
2. 2030 Spurs FRP w/ DAL pick Swap (placed above the 2028 because that one has a Top 1 protection on the Swap)
3. 2028 Spurs FRP w/ BOS pick Swap (this is slightly less valuable than the 2026 pick with the ATL swap, because BOS's swap is protected for the #1 overall pick)
4. 2024 Spurs FRP
5. 2025 Spurs FRP
6. 2025 Hawks FRP
7. 2027 Spurs FRP
8. 2027 Hawks FRP
9. 2029 Spurs FRP
10. 2024 Raptors FRP (Top 6 protected)
11. 2025 Bull FRP (Top 10 Protected)
12. 2024 Hornets FRP (Lotto Protected)

Good call, updated. If we were including time value, I might actually push the 2029 Spurs FRP below the 2024 Raptors FRP - but my initial caveat is that I did not really fully factor in time value other than for obvious situations.

[couchman]

I understand that you're not adding time value, but I think you should consider it.
That 2024 Raptors FRP looks more valuable to me right now than the 2027 and 2029 Spurs FRPs.

[scott]

I understand that you're not adding time value, but I think you should consider it.
That 2024 Raptors FRP looks more valuable to me right now than the 2027 and 2029 Spurs FRPs.

I hear ya, and can definitely see the case for that... I just haven't put enough time into to thinking of some definitive logic based on market data for time value. The NFL it is a lot easier, because you see a lot of trades to move back a round in exchange for future picks, but you really don't see that in the NBA (largely because the difference between the first and second rounds are much more significant than in the NFL).

[scott]

Bumping this 13 month old thread, because our warchest has of course changed and LeBowen made this great post in the Lauri thread.

Since we're back at making potential trade scenarios, I'll repost this from a couple of weeks back. With some updates because stuff happened since.

How would you value our picks?

'26 ATL/SAS swap and '27 ATL are easily the most valuable, I'd argue those two are more valuable than 4 FRPs Knicks traded for Bridges.
'25 ATL isn't as valuable as those with Trae still on the roster.
'25 SAS loses value if we trade it for Markkanen.
'27 and onwards SAS picks are hopefully well into 20s.
'25 CHI could convey because Bulls hate tanking and they shouldn't be among worst 8 teams in both '26 and '27.
'25 CHA is probably not going to convey, but they did improve their roster significantly and they might just make the play-in since so many East teams are going to blatantly tank.

'28 BOS and '30 DAL swaps probably won't be great, maybe if DAL implodes.
'30 MIN swap and '31 MIN top1 protected are a complete unknown, I can see them dropping out of contention by then because this is the best roster they can put together and 7 years is a long time to go.
I'd say those MIN picks would be up there with ATL picks for Ainge, he wants to control MIN's future even more.

Since Jazz has so many FRPs, there are also some options to effectively trade down.
For example, trading '26 ATL/SAS for '26 MIN/CLE would still have a lot of value for them.
Or trading '27 ATL for '27 CLE.
Even if we end up with no FRP in '26 draft it's not the end of the world because we have 5 SRPs that year and could easily move up to mid-20s if we really like someone.

My opinion still hasn't changed, in that topic Dejounte made I went over every single wing in the league with potential high end starter or all-star upside, if we talk the next two offseasons Markkanen and Naz Reid are the only realistic targets that wouldn't murder our cap situation, wouldn't cost us Devin and are still fairly young.
With all the picks we own, Markkenen is a no-brainer.
If we don't get him, trading away #8 and not taking a swing with any of those young forwards will look idiotic.

I think it is best to decouple the value ranking of our future picks from discussion from any specific player discussion, because it is important to have a common understanding of which assets are most valuable. Not all FRPs are created equal. OKC gets a lot of credit for having a war chest, but theirs is actually filled with a lot of protected picks or near-term picks which are unlikely to be very high. Likewise, the picks that Bridges fetched from NYK are not all that great (some of the far future ones are better because of natural variance).

So, below is my ranking of our current stable of picks (FRPs only), from most valuable to least. A few caveats to remember:

• I strictly adhere to a belief in the Time Value of Picks, meaning that all else equal, a pick that conveys sooner is better than a pick that conveys later.
• I strictly believe in the value enhancement of swaps. Swaps on their own are about as value as an SRP, but when they are coupled with a pick, they significantly enhance the value of a pick. When multiple swaps are attached to a pick, the pick gets marginally more valuable (to a point, and then there is diminishing marginal utility - more on this in a future post on swaps)
• Protections decrease the value of picks (duh)
• After about 5 years (the maximum window where you can project a player onto a team, since that is the longest allowable contract), draft positioning becomes more of a guess - so natural variance sets in and you might as well just assume every team has an equal probability of being good or bad in a given year (there are some practical limitations to this theory, but this is the simplified version)

Scott's Update Future FRP Value Ranking

1. SA26 w/ ATL Swap Attached
2. ATL27
3. SA25
4. ATL25 (I'd actually have these two tied as of right now. I think both teams will finish pretty close in record as late(r) lotto teams, around 9 and 10.
5. SA30 w/ DAL Swap and MIN Swap (Top-1 Protected)
6. SA31 w/ SAC Swap
7. MIN31
8. SA28 w/ BOS Swap (Top-1 Protected)
9. SA27
10. SA29
11. CHI25
12. CHA25

Edit: Just one clarification, this doesn't take into account quality of draft class, which is probably pretty impossible to predict past 3 years or so. This also is only meant to be used in how picks should be valued for use BESIDES using them in the draft (meaning, trades).

[Guru of Nothing]

If the CHI25 pick does not convey next year as a top-10 protected pick, the Spurs will get two more cracks at it as a top-8 protected pick in 26 and 27. Ranking it around fifth seems about right to me.