Anyone here hurt by rising interest rates/recession yet?

[spurraider21]

thats not core CPI thats down to 3%, thats regular CPI, which includes food/energy

core CPI which excludes those is still trending down, but at 4.8% (still checked in lower than the projected 5%)

[TSA]

thats not core CPI thats down to 3%, thats regular CPI, which includes food/energy

core CPI which excludes those is still trending down, but at 4.8% (still checked in lower than the projected 5%)

some positive news

[spurraider21]

some positive news

magats having to deal with positive jobs and inflation reports

[CosmicCowboy]

Actually core CPI may overestimate inflation. i/3 of CPI is rent including "estimated what it would rent for" in owner occupied housing.

[TSA]

[ChumpDumper]

Meh, Republicans wouldn't do about inflation except blame trans people.

This inflation/interest rate stuff is still mild compared to the 70s and 80s.

[spurraider21]

tl;dr

inflation numbers are getting better

here's why that's bad news...

[spurraider21]

a lot of questionable takes there. he says "today's print is confirmation that 3% inflation is the new normal"

wtf is that based on? its good that its down to 3% compared to where we were. nobody said we've reached our target. plenty of the recent rate hikes have yet to be felt, so theres definitely reason to believe the numbers will continue to improve

"as we head to recession..."

why is this being said as though its granted we are heading toward a recession?

[ElNono]

Fed has made very clear their target is 2%, but historically it has always hovered between 2%-3%...

Unsure how that is the "new" normal...

[SnakeBoy]

Two more 25 basis point rate hikes pretty much baked in unless something unexpected happens

[SnakeBoy]

a lot of questionable takes there. he says "today's print is confirmation that 3% inflation is the new normal"

wtf is that based on? its good that its down to 3% compared to where we were. nobody said we've reached our target. plenty of the recent rate hikes have yet to be felt, so theres definitely reason to believe the numbers will continue to improve

"as we head to recession..."

why is this being said as though its granted we are heading toward a recession?

It was an almost universal view that the Fed's rapid rate hikes would break the financial system and lead to a recession. Only thing that broke so far was a few specialty banks. Seems we're past that point but bears rarely get to be in control like they have been and some aways slow to become bulls. Then again the economy is far from out of the woods so I wouldn't call them wrong yet. Roubrini spent like 5 years predicting the GFC before it happened exactly as he said it would. Timing is difficult, best to just stay nimble.

[spurraider21]

It was an almost universal view that the Fed's rapid rate hikes would break the financial system and lead to a recession. Only thing that broke so far was a few specialty banks. Seems we're past that point but bears rarely get to be in control like they have been and some aways slow to become bulls. Then again the economy is far from out of the woods so I wouldn't call them wrong yet. Roubrini spent like 5 years predicting the GFC before it happened exactly as he said it would. Timing is difficult, best to just stay nimble.

[pgardn]

magats having to deal with positive jobs and inflation reports

I found this very funny.
I wonder what the situation was? If this was acted out it is incredibly good.
I also like the sea urchins crawling up the wall. gives it a Sponge Bob feel which brings back great memories.

[SnakeBoy]

This could throw a wrinkle into things

Rising Russian Oil Prices Test Western Resolve
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oi...n-Resolve.html

But a vast shadow fleet of (mostly Indian and Greek) tankers has emerged since sanctions ratcheted up last year, helping to haul the nation’s oil and work around the cap. Yet in a potential twist, yesterday Bloomberg reported that the fleet of tankers that sprouted up out of nowhere to keep Russia’s oil moving has disbanded even faster than it emerged:

The "shadow fleet" of tankers, which was created to ensure the transportation of Russian oil, has shrunk tenfold.

[SnakeBoy]

Oil Prices Balloon On Largest Single-Week Crude Inventory Crash In Years
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...-In-Years.html

Crude -15.4 million vs. -900,000 expected

[ChumpDumper]

Oil Prices Balloon On Largest Single-Week Crude Inventory Crash In Years
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...-In-Years.html

Crude -15.4 million vs. -900,000 expected

You must really be hurt by that.

[SnakeBoy]

You must really be hurt by that.

Pleased. I want the Fed to keep raising interest rates.

[ChumpDumper]

Pleased. I want the Fed to keep raising interest rates.

So the only thing's Biden has hurt are your tender feelings.

[Spurminator]

Conservatives love oil companies except when they're making money

[Winehole23]

Realtors gripping

[Winehole23]

Windfall for banks, good times not shared with depositors.

[Thread]

Windfall for banks, good times not shared with depositors.

Biden is a raw .

[Winehole23]

[Winehole23]

I wouldn't be surprised if they did 100 basic points in November. 30 year mortgage rates are about to blow through 7% with no end in sight. Housing market is gonna take a big dump in 2023.

Crash in transactions but not in price, so far.

Huge Collapse in New Home Sales on Top of Steep Negative Revisions

New home sales revisions yesterday were exceptional. I created a new chart to show the changes.


Case-Shiller Home Price Index National and Top 10


Not every city is at record highs although the national and 10-city indexes are. However, the price in all 10 cities increased for the fifth straight month.

https://mishtalk.com/economics/home-...thank-the-fed/

Through massive and totally unwarranted QE, foolishly hoping to create more inflation, the Fed suppressed interest rates to record lows and mortgage rates followed.

Anyone with an an existing mortgage could and did refinance at 3.00 percent or below.This increased “affordability” and we now have two classes of people courtesy of the Fed: winners and losers (existing home owners who refinanced low and those who want to buy).

https://mishtalk.com/economics/how-t...n-in-pictures/

[Winehole23]