1. #31801
    Independent DMX7's Avatar
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    It will be much more difficult because they can be degraded so much right now. Its much less likely.
    You, yourself said they were shifting to a war economy. And their war industry is most likely going to be largely intact still because Ukraine can't go bombing factories (the West won't allow it). So the threat is there one way or another, I just think the motivation to push further into Ukraine is already greatly diminished. I don't think the cost is worth slightly more diminishment.

    Taiwan is a whole different story. Biden has already explicitly said USA will go directly to war with China over it (because of chips I guess ).

  2. #31802
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    So what? US government spends money irresponsibly on lots of things that are bad investments; which of course has contributed to the massive debt and deficits and the beginning of the credit rating downgrades.

    I was fine with most of the initial support to Ukraine, but I don't see a very good return on investment here anymore.
    I think preventing genocide, torture, rape, and mass murder is an important investment.

    Russia has committed genocide literally dozens of times in the last 150 years or so, generally using mass murder to accomplish it. I think stopping its newest attempt is worth every single penny.

  3. #31803
    notthewordsofonewhokneels Thread's Avatar
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    It will be much more difficult because they can be degraded so much right now. Its much less likely.
    There are also geographic reasons for this also, basically Crimea. Crimea allows the Russians access to replacement.
    With Crimea NOW unstable for Russia it really cripples them. If Ukraine can keep damaging Russian shipping Russia will be forced to negotiate from a position of weakness.
    This cannot be understated.

    Also what kind of signal does this send to China on Taiwan?
    ...that Taiwan's is weak?

  4. #31804
    notthewordsofonewhokneels Thread's Avatar
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    I think preventing genocide, torture, rape, and mass murder is an important investment.

    Russia has committed genocide literally dozens of times in the last 150 years or so, generally using mass murder to accomplish it. I think stopping its newest attempt is worth every single penny.
    Though Russia did pull our fat out of the fryer there in Europe in 2, RG. We had the stomach to drop A Bombs on Yellow people, but we left the wet work on White Nazi's up to Russia, eh, fart face?

    *Lo & behold the Nazi's are back once & again, in Ukraine.

  5. #31805
    notthewordsofonewhokneels Thread's Avatar
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    You, yourself said they were shifting to a war economy. And their war industry is most likely going to be largely intact still because Ukraine can't go bombing factories (the West won't allow it). So the threat is there one way or another, I just think the motivation to push further into Ukraine is already greatly diminished. I don't think the cost is worth slightly less diminishment.

    Taiwan is a whole different story. Biden has already explicitly said USA will go directly to war with China over it (because of chips I guess ).
    With jacks and timbers 7 started back down.

    7, 7, he's our man, peeg belongs in a garbage can.

    7

  6. #31806
    my unders, my frgn whites pgardn's Avatar
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    You, yourself said they were shifting to a war economy. And their war industry is most likely going to be largely intact still because Ukraine can't go bombing factories (the West won't allow it). So the threat is there one way or another, I just think the motivation to push further into Ukraine is already greatly diminished. I don't think the cost is worth slightly less diminishment.

    Taiwan is a whole different story. Biden has already explicitly said USA will go directly to war with China over it (because of chips I guess ).
    War economies dont last.
    Especially with Crimea and the Black Sea remaining unsettled.
    I would like to see Ukraine with Crimea and access to a very good economic port, not Russia.

    China is a different story because they are not willing to totally ruin their huge economy right now. Russia has a huge land mass and a tiny economy comparatively. But, they have noticed as we all have. Russia can easily disrupt the rest of the worlds economy. China has made it clear they dont want that. But later on during desperate times... I would like China to be less likely to be a successful disrupter of the world working with a stable economy. China is more likely to play a slow creeping game rather than an outright invasion. but if it was made easier, I can see China trying.

    And what Random Guy says is important. Its just it does not go over well with US conservatives imo.

  7. #31807
    notthewordsofonewhokneels Thread's Avatar
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    I would like to see Ukraine with Crimea and access to a very good economic port, not Russia.
    I already stated that first (Russia with the water), months ago. Me. I was first. You're my fart catcher.

    Don't even start, peeg. I-was-first!!!

  8. #31808
    notthewordsofonewhokneels Thread's Avatar
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    And what Random Guy says is important.
    You gd insufferable ass smootcher, you.

  9. #31809
    my unders, my frgn whites pgardn's Avatar
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    Thread Im sorry I have you on ignore.
    DMX brings up sincere valid points.
    You just put up pictures so I put you on ignore again.

    If you add something interesting showing some sort of insight to your posts I would read them.
    Otherwise... Ill just opt out. You are completely boring now.

  10. #31810
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    You, yourself said they were shifting to a war economy. And their war industry is most likely going to be largely intact still because Ukraine can't go bombing factories (the West won't allow it). So the threat is there one way or another, I just think the motivation to push further into Ukraine is already greatly diminished. I don't think the cost is worth slightly less diminishment.

    Taiwan is a whole different story. Biden has already explicitly said USA will go directly to war with China over it (because of chips I guess ).
    Russia's military industrial complex hollowed out decades ago.

    Corruption rots out at any investment, and Russia has neither the skilled engineers, the machines, nor the machinists to pull of any mass mobilization of their economy.

    They have some of the worst demographic columns of any major country in Europe, made worse by the millions that voted with their feet when the war started.

    Russia will try to build up their industry, but that is not something that can be magicked up quickly.

    Ukraine can't go bombing, but for some reason, Russian military/industrial buildings and facilities have been burning with rather startling frequency since early last year.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia...%80%93present)

    Tver 21 April 2022 Central Research Ins ute of the Aerospace Defense Forces[17] 7
    Kineshma 21 April 2022 Chemical plant[18]
    Korolyov, Moscow Oblast 22 April 2022 Industrial zone where many enterprises of the space and rocket industry are located[19]
    Perm 1 May 2022 FKP gunpowder plant[27]
    Berdsk 17 May 2022 Chemical plant[34]
    Sergiyev Posad 8 June 2022 Zagorsk Optical-Mechanical Plant warehouse (optical, thermal & night-vision sighting systems)[41]
    Volokolamsk 12 September 2022 Plastic chip depot warehouse[48]
    Novokuznetsk 26 September 2022 Steel plant owned by Putin ally Roman Abramovich[49]
    Ryazan 21 October 2022 Gunpowder factory[52]
    Barnaul 9 December 2022 Tyre manufacturing plant[62]
    Nizhnekamsk 12 December 2022 Synthetic rubber factory[65]
    Saint Petersburg 13 December 2022 Machine-building plant[66]
    Saint Petersburg 5 January 2023 Agricultural machinery plant[82]
    Ufa 17 February 2023 Chemical plant[104]
    Vidnoye, Moscow Oblast 5 March 2023 Coke and gas works[110]
    Kolyubakino, Moscow Oblast 11 March 2023 Plastic production facility[112]
    Dolgoprudny 18 March 2023 Chemical plant[116] 0
    Yaroslavl 23 March 2023 Yaroslavl Motor Plant[117]
    Aramil, Sverdlovsk Oblast 24 March 2023 Research-and-production enterprise[118]
    Voronezh 7 April 2023 Aircraft plant[122]

    (full list includes oil depots, pipelines, and other infrastructure)

    Poor safety probably contributed to a good number of these, given the pressure from the top to increase production. UKR may not need to do much.

    BUT

    Many many Ukrainians speak fluent Russian. Corruption means poor security, generally. I have zero doubt that more than a small number of these fires were done by the SBU, or sympathetic Russians.

    Russia is still big, but it is a shadow of the USSR. I would lastly point out that UKR was where many of the old USSRs factories were located.

    I think a lot of people overestimate the Moscovy empire here. It is a hollow giant. Dangerous, but not invincible.

  11. #31811
    notthewordsofonewhokneels Thread's Avatar
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    Russia's military industrial complex hollowed out decades ago.

    Corruption rots out at any investment, and Russia has neither the skilled engineers, the machines, nor the machinists to pull of any mass mobilization of their economy.

    They have some of the worst demographic columns of any major country in Europe, made worse by the millions that voted with their feet when the war started.

    Russia will try to build up their industry, but that is not something that can be magicked up quickly.

    Ukraine can't go bombing, but for some reason, Russian military/industrial buildings and facilities have been burning with rather startling frequency since early last year.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia...%80%93present)

    Tver 21 April 2022 Central Research Ins ute of the Aerospace Defense Forces[17] 7
    Kineshma 21 April 2022 Chemical plant[18]
    Korolyov, Moscow Oblast 22 April 2022 Industrial zone where many enterprises of the space and rocket industry are located[19]
    Perm 1 May 2022 FKP gunpowder plant[27]
    Berdsk 17 May 2022 Chemical plant[34]
    Sergiyev Posad 8 June 2022 Zagorsk Optical-Mechanical Plant warehouse (optical, thermal & night-vision sighting systems)[41]
    Volokolamsk 12 September 2022 Plastic chip depot warehouse[48]
    Novokuznetsk 26 September 2022 Steel plant owned by Putin ally Roman Abramovich[49]
    Ryazan 21 October 2022 Gunpowder factory[52]
    Barnaul 9 December 2022 Tyre manufacturing plant[62]
    Nizhnekamsk 12 December 2022 Synthetic rubber factory[65]
    Saint Petersburg 13 December 2022 Machine-building plant[66]
    Saint Petersburg 5 January 2023 Agricultural machinery plant[82]
    Ufa 17 February 2023 Chemical plant[104]
    Vidnoye, Moscow Oblast 5 March 2023 Coke and gas works[110]
    Kolyubakino, Moscow Oblast 11 March 2023 Plastic production facility[112]
    Dolgoprudny 18 March 2023 Chemical plant[116] 0
    Yaroslavl 23 March 2023 Yaroslavl Motor Plant[117]
    Aramil, Sverdlovsk Oblast 24 March 2023 Research-and-production enterprise[118]
    Voronezh 7 April 2023 Aircraft plant[122]

    (full list includes oil depots, pipelines, and other infrastructure)

    Poor safety probably contributed to a good number of these, given the pressure from the top to increase production. UKR may not need to do much.

    BUT

    Many many Ukrainians speak fluent Russian. Corruption means poor security, generally. I have zero doubt that more than a small number of these fires were done by the SBU, or sympathetic Russians.

    Russia is still big, but it is a shadow of the USSR. I would lastly point out that UKR was where many of the old USSRs factories were located.

    I think a lot of people overestimate the Moscovy empire here. It is a hollow giant. Dangerous, but not invincible.
    They took 20% of Ukr, their nuclear plants and the southern water against 50 countries headed by this country, NATO, et al, RG. That ain't whistlin' Dixie, daddy-O.

  12. #31812
    my unders, my frgn whites pgardn's Avatar
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    Russias war economy is hollowed out because its not modern at all.
    But it can still be effective in disruption of world wide economy.
    And it can be built back to provide enough disruptive power to remain an irritant. But the people in Russia?

    The people of Russia learned to live with a corrupt rotten system and rather adapted. They wont like a corrupt war economy that does not provide enough Vodka for them. They have a certain standard of living in the bigger more modern cities. This is where political power is established. Putin is very cognizant of this. Putin is clearly attuned to how much the richer Russians can take. And this gives the war more hope in Ukraine's favor imo.

  13. #31813
    notthewordsofonewhokneels Thread's Avatar
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    Russias war economy is hollowed out because its not modern at all.
    But it can still be effective in disruption of world wide economy.
    And it can be built back to provide enough disruptive power to remain an irritant. But the people in Russia?

    The people of Russia learned to live with a corrupt rotten system and rather adapted. They wont like a corrupt war economy that does not provide enough Vodka for them. They have a certain standard of living in the bigger more modern cities. This is where political power is established. Putin is very cognizant of this. Putin is clearly attuned to how much the richer Russians can take. And this gives the war more hope in Ukraine's favor imo.
    Please, this countries [[[corrupt rotten system]]] is far worse than Russia's, bub. This country threatened to blow up the White House the day the President wanted to move in.

    The U.S. has nary room. Nary.

  14. #31814
    Yam Tits's Bonespur Xray Ef-man's Avatar
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  15. #31815
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Russias war economy is hollowed out because its not modern at all.
    But it can still be effective in disruption of world wide economy.
    And it can be built back to provide enough disruptive power to remain an irritant. But the people in Russia?

    The people of Russia learned to live with a corrupt rotten system and rather adapted. They wont like a corrupt war economy that does not provide enough Vodka for them. They have a certain standard of living in the bigger more modern cities. This is where political power is established. Putin is very cognizant of this. Putin is clearly attuned to how much the richer Russians can take. And this gives the war more hope in Ukraine's favor imo.
    Russian standards of living are taking a hit. Hard to know how far they can really be pushed before even the police state gets overwhelmed.



    The thing one can be sure of is no one is going to give Putin bad news. That will make his decision making process flawed.

    Authoritarians suck at governing. Wanna-be fascists tend not to understand that. Xi's comeuppance is around the corner.

  16. #31816
    Yam Tits's Bonespur Xray Ef-man's Avatar
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    Russian standards of living are taking a hit. Hard to know how far they can really be pushed before even the police state gets overwhelmed.



    The thing one can be sure of is no one is going to give Putin bad news. That will make his decision making process flawed.

    Authoritarians suck at governing. Wanna-be fascists tend not to understand that. Xi's comeuppance is around the corner.
    On the plus side, Lada sales are booming!

  17. #31817
    Believe.
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    So what? US government spends money irresponsibly on lots of things that are bad investments; which of course has contributed to the massive debt and deficits and the beginning of the credit rating downgrades.

    I was fine with most of the initial support to Ukraine, but I don't see a very good return on investment here anymore.
    The point is that there is no fiscal downside. Have fun tilting at the inconsequential.

  18. #31818
    notthewordsofonewhokneels Thread's Avatar
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    Please, this countries [[[corrupt rotten system]]] is far worse than Russia's, bub. This country threatened to blow up the White House the day the President wanted to move in.

    The U.S. has nary room. Nary.

  19. #31819
    Yam Tits's Bonespur Xray Ef-man's Avatar
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    Lada should be providing kickbacks to this munition's manufacturers.


  20. #31820
    notthewordsofonewhokneels Thread's Avatar
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    Lada should be providing kickbacks to this munition's manufacturers.

    After Biden cried like a baby and swore that he wouldn't use said Cluster Bombs like Putin had used.

    tee, hee.

  21. #31821
    notthewordsofonewhokneels Thread's Avatar
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    Ass-end-of-mule.

  22. #31822
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    USA approved NATO countries to deliver f-16s to Ukraine

  23. #31823
    LMAO koriwhat's Avatar
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    Ukraine!

  24. #31824
    Independent DMX7's Avatar
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    The point is that there is no fiscal downside. Have fun tilting at the inconsequential.
    I hope your personal finances aren't as bad as your reasoning.

  25. #31825
    i hunt fenced animals clambake's Avatar
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    I hope your personal finances aren't as bad as your reasoning.
    How has this affected your finances, since you made it about that?

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