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  1. #501
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    https://quantimschmitz.com/2023/04/0...ba-draft-pick/

    Same .

    I'm going to guess you saw the historical data showing that 5 has been much better than 6. Unless we expect that for some magic reason 6 is just a bad spot where 7, 8, and 9 are all better despite coming later (and since all the players available at those spots were also available at 6.
    Manny did a couple players at #9 far exceed expectations thus drive #9 up?

    Very interesting link, thank you.
    It appears most years only a full on Tank / Suck will theoretically give a lasting / team influencing pick.
    Altho 2 has not done that well.

  2. #502
    Veteran gambit1990's Avatar
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    this thread is as good as locked tbh.

    he's not getting fired bc of that $80 million dollar contract.

  3. #503
    Believe. Tyronn Lue's Avatar
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    Manny did a couple players at #9 far exceed expectations thus drive #9 up?

    Very interesting link, thank you.
    It appears most years only a full on Tank / Suck will theoretically give a lasting / team influencing pick.
    Altho 2 has not done that well.
    Wade, Love and Cousins probably jack up the value of the number 5 pick considerably. Curry maybe single handedly ed 7. You have Thabeet, Okafor and Darko at 2. That would weigh that one down. Lonzo Ball there as well.

    For 9, Amar'e, Shawn Marion, Iggy, Joakim Noah, Demar DeRozan, Kemba Walker, Andre Drummond, Gordon Hayward.

  4. #504
    Veteran exstatic's Avatar
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    Ad hominin? You above stated you didn't understand the models lol. Regardless of you having posted it before, why do you think its better than the other ones? You're choosing it now for what reason other than its convenient? If you read the article, you see that the author states they are adding in arbitrary measures into the model. For some reason, they want to make this in a function that involves grouping picks into tiers. Why? What reason do we have to expect picks to cluster into these plateaus where you see steep drop off between picks. Why does this one analyst decide to make arbitrary changes to a simple statistical model that no other analyst has chosen?

    You can't say you don't understand it and then get upset when someone says you're using you don't understand to make a point just because you like what it says. I don't see a reason to expect anything other than a standard exponential decay function. Thats exactly what the data shows. What would be unexpected would be some kind of a weird step at arbitrary points in the draft.
    Never said I didn’t understand it. I said I don’t DO it. I also didn’t randomly pick this. As stated, I referenced this model last year. Two whiffs, so maybe it’s your reading comp skills that need work, not my modeling ones.

  5. #505
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  6. #506
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  7. #507
    Veteran Sugus's Avatar
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    The record says it, 18L´s in a row is not pretty.
    Yeah, the recipe is GET SOME TALENT AND ADAPT TO THE WAY THE GAME IS PLAYED, 2014 was a decade ago.
    Ask GSW, MIA, DEN, BOS, Milwaukee, sure they are idiots and dont know .

    How many steps? 385?
    Leaving the players improvise for 20 games without a plan and Im making a fool of myself, sure...
    The Sochan ¨experiment¨ make a giraffe believe its an elefant.

    The man is old and out of touch, you guys act like if Pop retires there wont be another good coach and Spurs will never go deep in the playoffs, let alone win a championship.
    Yes, you were making a fool of yourself by making a very premature judgment on what has always been a multi-year plan, and taking day 1 results at face value as if it indicates the outlook of the Spurs in 5 seasons of this path. How do you think small-market San Antonio "gets some talent and adapts"? You don't think the lottery's a pretty good place for that?

    Losing 20 games today means jack in the grand scheme of things. Or do you see the Thunder bogged down today by yesterday's tanking? The Rockettes? Any of the tanked-then, good-now teams? I've never been a Team Tank person for many reasons, but the pros have always been clear, as has the timeline.

    And now we've reaped the biggest pro of it (a generational talent - on the first true try!) and wanting a second go before the major retooling stage. What's so stupid about it? Lastly, I want this team coached by a new coach as well, I don't know what you were on about with that. Both things aren't incompatible.

  8. #508
    Veteran Sugus's Avatar
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    The Spurs added Victor to last year's team. They're worse.
    Yeah, the team is worse, but who's wanted them to be better (besides the fans)? I know we lack far too much information to make definitive judgments on this, but I've actually been impressed at the ways Pop & Co have found to tie Victor's hands this season and limit his impact. They're making it very hard on him in that sense, for sure.

    I mean, having no starting point guards last year leading to a lottery year and a #1 pick that's a big man -- and you sign zero real point guards at all in that off-season? Not even the corpse of Patty "culture" Mills? It's almost funny bold, tbh

  9. #509
    Veteran Sugus's Avatar
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    I see Devin driving with a lot more confidence than he did last season, and his shoot is much more on point (though I haven't checked any numbers on this). I distinctly remember cringing last season on every Vassell wing 3, where I've been surprised by his marksmanship this season - he's kept the team afloat in some of the games I've watched.

    Sochan is a mess to quantify given all the variables, but I like what I've seen from him. Again, if you're expecting linear improvement I see how you're confused/disappointed, but many, many players take "two steps back" when learning new things, before putting them together. If he keeps improving his shot, and his floor game and court vision, then gets back to his comfort zone with all these new tools... I think it could be good.

    But I know it's a tough sell at this point, not gonna argue that.

  10. #510
    Veteran Sugus's Avatar
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    Just want to get on the record now how many years it is acceptable to use the excuse that we are just trying to maximize our odds of a top pick.

    In 2028, when we still suck, will the Sniffers still be talking about how we just need to add that 8th lottery pick to the roster to be able to finally compete?
    For sure this season and I wouldn't expect it to last past this one. If the Spurs don't make any moves to address the team's holes this off-season, I would begin to worry, honestly.

    But they made a lot of moves last season with this goal in mind, so we're reaping the fruits that were chosen. That's important to keep in mind, even if you or I personally disagree with the path taken, which is fine.

  11. #511
    I Got Hops Extra Stout's Avatar
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    Yeah, the team is worse, but who's wanted them to be better (besides the fans)? I know we lack far too much information to make definitive judgments on this, but I've actually been impressed at the ways Pop & Co have found to tie Victor's hands this season and limit his impact. They're making it very hard on him in that sense, for sure.

    I mean, having no starting point guards last year leading to a lottery year and a #1 pick that's a big man -- and you sign zero real point guards at all in that off-season? Not even the corpse of Patty "culture" Mills? It's almost funny bold, tbh
    Not just that, but they make a trade that yields a real veteran point guard and then cut him.

  12. #512
    Veteran Sugus's Avatar
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    Not just that, but they make a trade that yields a real veteran point guard and then cut him.
    Exactly.

    ing Spurs always going zag when everyone zigs.... Tread milled for years when everyone wanted a tank, now commit to a tank when everyone wants them winning

  13. #513
    Veteran TrainOfThought5's Avatar
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    I see Devin driving with a lot more confidence than he did last season, and his shoot is much more on point (though I haven't checked any numbers on this). I distinctly remember cringing last season on every Vassell wing 3, where I've been surprised by his marksmanship this season - he's kept the team afloat in some of the games I've watched.

    Sochan is a mess to quantify given all the variables, but I like what I've seen from him. Again, if you're expecting linear improvement I see how you're confused/disappointed, but many, many players take "two steps back" when learning new things, before putting them together. If he keeps improving his shot, and his floor game and court vision, then gets back to his comfort zone with all these new tools... I think it could be good.

    But I know it's a tough sell at this point, not gonna argue that.
    being ten games better than last year doesn’t serve anyone a good purpose, tbh.

  14. #514
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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    Never said I didn’t understand it. I said I don’t DO it. I also didn’t randomly pick this. As stated, I referenced this model last year. Two whiffs, so maybe it’s your reading comp skills that need work, not my modeling ones.
    And yet you still can't provide any reasoning. I don't know who you're trying to bull my dude but either or get off the pot. If you don't get it its fine but for s sake stop trying this ing nonsense and explain what you think or just stfu.

  15. #515
    Veteran Arcadian's Avatar
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    Exactly.

    ing Spurs always going zag when everyone zigs.... Tread milled for years when everyone wanted a tank, now commit to a tank when everyone wants them winning
    Well we can't deny that they were right to tank in 2022-23. If they tanked back in 2019, the trajectory is different, and they probably don't land Wemby.

  16. #516
    Veteran Raven's Avatar
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    why is malaki starting? surely starting champagnie would be far better.

  17. #517
    Veteran offset formation's Avatar
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    I’ll be off of the tank Tank next year. I’ve said in a few threads that we’re on the OKC track, 20ish, 20ish, 40ish, contender over a four year period.
    I tend to agree with this but our defensive woes worry me that they are entrenched and not something that can just be switched off. I mean we have player personnel issues here and many players have shown either incompetence, low. BBIQ, or low desire to actually play defense.

  18. #518
    Veteran offset formation's Avatar
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    I see Devin driving with a lot more confidence than he did last season, and his shoot is much more on point (though I haven't checked any numbers on this). I distinctly remember cringing last season on every Vassell wing 3, where I've been surprised by his marksmanship this season - he's kept the team afloat in some of the games I've watched.

    Sochan is a mess to quantify given all the variables, but I like what I've seen from him. Again, if you're expecting linear improvement I see how you're confused/disappointed, but many, many players take "two steps back" when learning new things, before putting them together. If he keeps improving his shot, and his floor game and court vision, then gets back to his comfort zone with all these new tools... I think it could be good.

    But I know it's a tough sell at this point, not gonna argue that.
    I like some of what I see from Sochan including some improved interior scoring but he's got to get that hitch worked through on his 3 pt shot and he's got to be more consistent on defense. I could easily see him being a second Keldon on defense if something doesn't change to make his motor run harder.

    As for Vassell, I was among the most vocal supporters to draft him. That said, his game frustrates me especially as it relates to Wemby. I do not see a long term relationship there. So many times in transition Vassell will just jack up a 3 when Wemby has more or less gained a scoring position in the post. That sort of thing will eventually cause problems. I'm basically meh on Vassell at this point.

  19. #519
    Veteran scott's Avatar
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    I see Devin driving with a lot more confidence than he did last season, and his shoot is much more on point (though I haven't checked any numbers on this). I distinctly remember cringing last season on every Vassell wing 3, where I've been surprised by his marksmanship this season - he's kept the team afloat in some of the games I've watched.

    Sochan is a mess to quantify given all the variables, but I like what I've seen from him. Again, if you're expecting linear improvement I see how you're confused/disappointed, but many, many players take "two steps back" when learning new things, before putting them together. If he keeps improving his shot, and his floor game and court vision, then gets back to his comfort zone with all these new tools... I think it could be good.

    But I know it's a tough sell at this point, not gonna argue that.
    What I see in Devin this season is his extreme natural talent overcoming a major developmental backsliding, which isn’t necessarily his fault. I wasn’t the biggest on Devin, the smoothness to his jumper and the way he plays (offense, anyway) has impressed me and he clearly has a ton of talent.

    With that said, he is kind of playing the game of basketball like ass. His shot selection is extremely poor (like, it cannot be overstated how bad it is) and he isn’t playing winning basketball that is a foundation to build on. He is playing the way I expect a young kid on the Silas-led Rockets to play. With that said, I don’t think he is completely to blame. The offense is a disaster, there is no one to set him up, and he often does these things because…. Well, wtf else is he gonna do? This, to me, is an indictment on the coach for not using this tanking year to its fullest to develop these young players.

  20. #520
    Chopper Ed Helicopter Jones's Avatar
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    I wonder if the 1996 version of Greg Popovich would have fired the 2023 version of Greg Popovich and then insert himself as coach, claiming Old Pop had "lost control of the locker room" similar to what Young Pop said about Bob Hill back in the day.

  21. #521
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    why is malaki starting? surely starting champagnie would be far better.
    he's the closest thing to a point guard pop is willing to start for some reason

  22. #522
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    I wonder if the 1996 version of Greg Popovich would have fired the 2023 version of Greg Popovich and then insert himself as coach, claiming Old Pop had "lost control of the locker room" similar to what Young Pop said about Bob Hill back in the day.
    Rack it!

  23. #523
    Veteran Raven's Avatar
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    he's the closest thing to a point guard pop is willing to start for some reason
    seems a textbook lou williams to me

  24. #524
    Out with the old... Obstructed_View's Avatar
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    I wonder if the 1996 version of Greg Popovich would have fired the 2023 version of Greg Popovich and then insert himself as coach, claiming Old Pop had "lost control of the locker room" similar to what Young Pop said about Bob Hill back in the day.
    Pop wanted to tank for Timmy, Hill showed signs of wanting to win to keep his job, and Pop knew he would be heralded as a good coach hitched to the Tim Duncan wagon.

    Anybody who wanted to be a coach would take this team in a second. The smallest bit of common sense makes this a good team with an otherworldly young superstar leading the team.

  25. #525
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    seems a textbook lou williams to me
    Yeah just a bad version

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