Toronto Pick Watch (Top 6 protected)

[LeBowen]

Siakam must've changed his mind and committed to an extension, otherwise Pacers ruined everything they were building.
Now they need a guard defender, Hield probably gets traded.

Even after this trade, Raptors will have a hard time breaking into top5 because worst teams are just that horrible.
But as already said, having that pick the next year would probably be even better for the Spurs.

[scott]

Supposedly the picks TOR are getting are:

2024 IND
2024 Worst of UTA/HOU/LAC/OKC
2026 IND

Interesting in that TOR will now have two FRPs before considering tanking hard enough to retain their own. Their 2024 draft could end up looking a lot like our 2022 draft, which would maybe signal an even harder tank in 2025 (tank for Flagg?), and potentially another hard tank in 2026 (tank for Boozer/AJ?).

Even though its a weak draft, we really want/need that TOR pick to convey this year. I'd honestly be more inclined to ship it to ATL in a deal for Murray (or any other trade) seeing what TOR is doing. That pick loses trade value if TOR starts going hard tank... and the value of it plummets if it doesn't convey this year and teams sense that TOR is going to enter a longer rebuild.

[onechance87]

Supposedly the picks TOR are getting are:

2024 IND
2024 Worst of UTA/HOU/LAC/OKC
2026 IND

Interesting in that TOR will now have two FRPs before considering tanking hard enough to retain their own. Their 2024 draft could end up looking a lot like our 2022 draft, which would maybe signal an even harder tank in 2025 (tank for Flagg?), and potentially another hard tank in 2026 (tank for Boozer/AJ?).

Even though its a weak draft, we really want/need that TOR pick to convey this year. I'd honestly be more inclined to ship it to ATL in a deal for Murray (or any other trade) seeing what TOR is doing. That pick loses trade value if TOR starts going hard tank... and the value of it plummets if it doesn't convey this year and teams sense that TOR is going to enter a longer rebuild.

wright needs to be fired....And we need to sign iq to with them for stealing poeltl from us

[Mr. Body]

If I were TOR, I would have rather insisted on Mathurin or Walker and one less FRP, but that's just me.

That wasn't going to happen.

Id expect Toronto to shop Brown around. He'd be excellent for a contender.

[Mugen]

Like I said earlier in this thread, not sure why everybody was penciling in that Toronto pick when it was nowhere near a lock, even less so now with Siakam going out

[Seventyniner]

Supposedly the picks TOR are getting are:

2024 IND
2024 Worst of UTA/HOU/LAC/OKC
2026 IND

Interesting in that TOR will now have two FRPs before considering tanking hard enough to retain their own. Their 2024 draft could end up looking a lot like our 2022 draft, which would maybe signal an even harder tank in 2025 (tank for Flagg?), and potentially another hard tank in 2026 (tank for Boozer/AJ?).

Even though its a weak draft, we really want/need that TOR pick to convey this year. I'd honestly be more inclined to ship it to ATL in a deal for Murray (or any other trade) seeing what TOR is doing. That pick loses trade value if TOR starts going hard tank... and the value of it plummets if it doesn't convey this year and teams sense that TOR is going to enter a longer rebuild.

Do we know what protections are on those IND picks?

I'm wondering if there might be some deal the Spurs could make with the Raptors that would give the Raptors their own pick back this year in exchange for the 2026 IND pick with some sort of protection added, like top 4. It would be a worse pick but much more likely to convey.

[buttsR4rebounding]

wright needs to be fired....And we need to sign iq to with them for stealing poeltl from us

Back away from the pipe dude. What the would we do with Poeltl right now? It was a good trade. Even if Toronto goes for a hard tank (which they are not) it will likely convey. I bet most people wouldn't write this crap if their real names were attached to it. Anonymity breeds stupidity.

[spurraider21]

Supposedly the picks TOR are getting are:

2024 IND
2024 Worst of UTA/HOU/LAC/OKC
2026 IND

Interesting in that TOR will now have two FRPs before considering tanking hard enough to retain their own. Their 2024 draft could end up looking a lot like our 2022 draft, which would maybe signal an even harder tank in 2025 (tank for Flagg?), and potentially another hard tank in 2026 (tank for Boozer/AJ?).

Even though its a weak draft, we really want/need that TOR pick to convey this year. I'd honestly be more inclined to ship it to ATL in a deal for Murray (or any other trade) seeing what TOR is doing. That pick loses trade value if TOR starts going hard tank... and the value of it plummets if it doesn't convey this year and teams sense that TOR is going to enter a longer rebuild.

the odds of them picking top 6 for 3 consecutive years is quite small. they already have a foundation piece in Barnes. theyre locked into productive players like barrett, poeltl, quickley. its not like its an entire roster reset

[spurraider21]

2026 pick going from Indy to Toronto is top 4 protected. pacers hedge in case siakam bails and they go to

[Bruno]

Quickley/Barrett/Brown/Barnes/Poeltl is still a quite good lineup. If they don't do other trades and if Poeltl came back quickly, I see them finishing 7th worst above Pistons, Wizards, Spurs, Hornets, Blazers and Grizzlies. In that case, Spurs will have a 68% odd of getting the pick.

[Seventyniner]

Even if the Raptors fall all the way to the 5th worst record, there is still a 36.1% chance the Spurs get the pick anyway. 56.6% chance if the Raptors finish with the 6th worst record.

I think it would be very hard for them to tank past any of the Spurs/Pistons/Wizards/Hornets.

[ginobilized]

I'd rather the Toronto pick convey in 2025, anyway. It's always a gamble, but, my bet is that this pick conveys and will yield something/someone very useful to the Spurs future.

[Mr. Body]

Keep an eye on the actual pick chances:

https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

Toronto probably stays in the 6 slot with Memphis balling out for pride. The Raptor's chances of landing at these picks are as follows:

#7 30.7%
#8 21.7%
#9 4.0%
#10 0.2%

Their chances of landing at 1, 2, 3, 4 or 6 are all around 8-9% each. There is no chance, at the 6 spot, of receiving the #5 pick.

If they can't 'catch up' to the losses of SA, CHA, POR, DET, and WAS, then there is a 56.6% chance the Spurs still get the pick. If Memphis drops below them, the Spurs gain only 8.6% to that total. So, it is still likely.

Now, if it does not convey this year, then Toronto will have to do some deep tanking to keep protecting the pick for the next two years. They might do so to take a stab at Flagg or Ace.

It's not the greatest news, but there was always risk.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

Keep an eye on the actual pick chances:

https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

Toronto probably stays in the 6 slot with Memphis balling out for pride. The Raptor's chances of landing at these picks are as follows:

#7 30.7%
#8 21.7%
#9 4.0%
#10 0.2%

Their chances of landing at 1, 2, 3, 4 or 6 are all around 8-9% each. There is no chance, at the 6 spot, of receiving the #5 pick.

If they can't 'catch up' to the losses of SA, CHA, POR, DET, and WAS, then there is a 56.6% chance the Spurs still get the pick. If Memphis drops below them, the Spurs gain only 8.6% to that total. So, it is still likely.

Now, if it does not convey this year, then Toronto will have to do some deep tanking to keep protecting the pick for the next two years. They might do so to take a stab at Flagg or Ace.

It's not the greatest news, but there was always risk.

Thanks for sharing. I'm hoping they still aim for the play in as they are just one game out of it and maybe that will encourage more wins in the long run so we can improve our odds of getting their pick.

[onechance87]

Back away from the pipe dude. What the would we do with Poeltl right now? It was a good trade. Even if Toronto goes for a hard tank (which they are not) it will likely convey. I bet most people wouldn't write this crap if their real names were attached to it. Anonymity breeds stupidity.

bro are u stupid...torono gonna tank this year to make sure they get there pick and we dont get it the
next few years...Alot of the east have got so much better for the next few years...We gave a top center
away for free

[mo7888]

bro are u stupid...torono gonna tank this year to make sure they get there pick and we dont get it the
next few years...Alot of the east have got so much better for the next few years...We gave a top center
away for free

They can tank all they want, but there are 5 teams below them they can't out tank. 6 is their floor if they tank hard and then it's just up to the ping pong balls.

[onechance87]

Quickley/Barrett/Brown/Barnes/Poeltl is still a quite good lineup. If they don't do other trades and if Poeltl came back quickly, I see them finishing 7th worst above Pistons, Wizards, Spurs, Hornets, Blazers and Grizzlies. In that case, Spurs will have a 68% odd of getting the pick.

if one of them get a scratch on em...Toronto will sit them...They are going for
the tank

[tbdog]

Siakam must've changed his mind and committed to an extension, otherwise Pacers ruined everything they were building.
Now they need a guard defender, Hield probably gets traded.

Even after this trade, Raptors will have a hard time breaking into top5 because worst teams are just that horrible.
But as already said, having that pick the next year would probably be even better for the Spurs.

Ind would have said they will give the 5 year max. And his agent would have said that's the best you can get.

[BatManu20]

Been saying all season that pick is unlikely to convey because they were likely to trade Siakim by the deadline and eventually tank. This was a pretty easy call tbh. Makes no sense for them to tread around the 11th Seed in the East.

[Mr. Body]

Those #5 and #6 pick slots are wild, pre-lottery. The fifth worst team only has a 2% chance of actually getting the fifth pick. The sixth worst tem ony has a 8% chance of getting the sixth pick.

[Mr. Body]

Been saying all season that pick is unlikely to convey because they were likely to trade Siakim by the deadline and eventually tank. This was a pretty easy call tbh. Makes no sense for them to tread around the 11th Seed in the East.

It is literally more likely to convey than not and it's very unlikely to change in the opposite direction.

[onechance87]

Been saying all season that pick is unlikely to convey because they were likely to trade Siakim by the deadline and eventually tank. This was a pretty easy call tbh. Makes no sense for them to tread around the 11th Seed in the East.

it will never convey....Cause they will suck or be average at best and have no chance of getting into the
playoffs the next few years with the rise of the east teams...wright needs to be fired asap for his
stupid gamble

[scott]

I'd rather the Toronto pick convey in 2025, anyway. It's always a gamble, but, my bet is that this pick conveys and will yield something/someone very useful to the Spurs future.

IMO, even though the 2024 draft appears weak, I still want the TOR pick to convey this year for a few reasons (below). I trade to view this at all times from the perspective of the value of the pick (not necessarily trade value, though that is also part of it). Your hope is that the picks in your portfolio maximize their potential value. Reasons why I want the pick to convey this year:

1. For basic pick management. If the TOR pick does not convey this year, the Spurs could have up to FIVE FRPs next year. That would diminish the value of those picks as trade pieces as opposing teams will know the Spurs MUST move off of them
2. Typically speaking, unless coupled with diminishing protections, every year a pick does not convey, it's odds of conveying decreases (even if only slightly), thus decreasing it's value. Think of the CHA pick. When we got it, the general thought was that there was a decent chance the Hornets would make the playoffs over the next 3 years. Now they've failed the first year, will fail again the second year, and you've got one shot left for them to make the playoffs. Even ignoring whatever estimations you might make about the Hornets' roster next year, you've only got one bullet left in that gun, so the perceived odds are lower
3. Certainty improves trade value. A pick that is definitely the #11 pick this year is worth more than a pick that is Top-6 protected for the next two years due to the uncertainty of the pick conveying. Improved trade value = improved overall value. Whether the Spurs make that pick this year or use it as a trade chip, I want the certainty.

Just my humble opinion.

[scott]

it will never convey....Cause they will suck or be average at best and have no chance of getting into the
playoffs the next few years with the rise of the east teams...wright needs to be fired asap for his
stupid gamble

lolwut

[Kevin]

So many of the picks the Spurs acquired aren't or wont convey. This is why pick hoarding is overrated. Hornets pick probably never conveys as a first and now there's a decent chance we'll have to wait on the Raps pick. The Bulls prolly tank next season too so good chance that pick wont convey anytime soon. Hawks will never full tank as long as the Spurs control the 2025-27 picks for those thirsting for Flagg and Boozer.