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If Portland wins tonight Toronto is down to a two game lead. Toronto is looking to unload more players and rebuild.
And so many in here said no way Portland can catch Toronto.
raptors going into the 5th worst team not even trying to tank yet...We are never gonna get the pick,They are a bad
team and will be a bad team for the next few years.
If Portland wins tonight Toronto is down to a two game lead. Toronto is looking to unload more players and rebuild.
And so many in here said no way Portland can catch Toronto.
Yeah I'd definitely say Toronto won't win more than Memphis at this point. Tanking or not, the Raptors have been the worst team in the league for the last three weeks, even worse than the Spurs and Pistons. Blazers are also playing well and could end up better.
The Hawks could turn on the tank to get a better pick and Brooklyn is right there, but they don't own their own pick so would lose only because they suck.
I'd say it's getting unlikely that the pick conveys at this point.
Toronto maintains a 3 game lead over Portland.
No Bane. No Morant. No Smart. I mean….
One of the things people don't talk about much is that the Spurs' chances of getting the Raptors pick if they're in the sixth lottery slot correlate inversely with the value of the Spurs natural pick. Like the odds of the pick conveying are the odds that someone in the 7-15 group jumps into the top four. The chances that someone 5-15 jumps into the top four are (basically) the chances of them jumping in front of the Spurs and pushing that pick down. If Toronto gets the seventh lottery slot, that correlation goes away. If they get up to that fifth slot, that negative correlation gets even stronger. I would take the Spurs getting 5 and 7 if it came to that. But for the folks who want Risacher, Topic or any other top-four prospect, it's a little worrying. I'll let the stats posters game out the odds, but I definitely want someone to pass up the Raptors to push them back down to seven.
Last edited by Chinook; 01-27-2024 at 12:44 AM.
Part of the “we’re never going to get Wemby” crowd from last year. It’s a lot more likely it conveys as a non-lottery pick than not conveying at all.
This is where real analysis begins. There is a hard and clear line between not making trades and this logic. Yet people want to on Wright or pop but these are boots on the ground considerations. Especially since there’s no guarantee that a trade moves the needle with something like a Dejonte trade. You almost have to leverage into the offseason. See where it falls and angle off of that.
Raptors have been without Poeltl, who may return next week and is practicing. His return should help them be at least a bit more compe ive. They were without Quickley tonight as well.
If poeltl that much of a difference maker,Wright for sure got screwed.
settle down, we traded a rental and he got paid on the new deal, plus we tanked for victor and la di da. Same with murray, and danny green being traded to the raptors. The spurs routinely trade guys they don't want to pay
???
The you talking about.
Poeltl's an above average starting center and their starting lineup is significantly worse without him.
If they really aren't taking then he will be put right back in the lineup a soon as he's ready. We'll see I guess.
Clearly better: Porzingis, Allen, Mobley, Jokic, Sengun, Turner, Davis, Jackson Jr., Adebayo, Lopez, Gobert, Towns, Holmgren, Embiid, Sabonis, Wembanyama.
Comparable or on track to be: Claxton, Williams, Lively, Duren, Zubac, Robinson, Carter Jr., Ayton, Kessler.
Who gives a what his rank is when the point is they play much, much better with him in there.
A quick summary of the situation around the pick:
Odds of Spurs getting that pick depending of Raptors record:
Worst record: 0%
2nd worst record: 0%
3rd: 7%
4th: 19%
5th: 36%
6th: 54%
7th: 68%
8th: 74%
9th: 80%
Worst current records in the NBA:
1st: Detroit 5-40
2nd: Washington 8-37
3rd: SA 10-36
4th: Charlotte 10-34
5th: Portland 13-32
6th: Toronto 16-29
7th: Memphis 18-27
8th: Atlanta 18-27
9th: Brooklyn 18-27
Right now, Spurs have a 54% odds of getting Raptors pick. Making end of seasons projections seems hazardous with the trade deadline being in only 10 days.
No, the point is he's not an above average starting C.
Good stuff.
Tbh, it's pointless to worry about their record when it's going to come down to the lottery.
Bottom 5 are already set in stone, then it's about them finishing anywhere between 6th and 10th.
We'll see how the deadline goes, but after last year, we can't complain about anything lottery related for the next couple of decades.
^ this man gets it
Who gives a what his rank is when the point is they play much, much better with him in there.
I don't entirely agree that the worst 5 are set in stone. I do think Charlotte, Detroit, and Washington are so bad and have no incentive to win. There is a chance Portland or San Antonio win more games than Toronto.
Toronto is sitting RJ Barrett against Atlanta, one of their rivals for a team to start tanking. Poeltl and Quickley are also out. They may be fully tanking now.
Wouldn't be that difficult to trade a 5 and 7 and something else for the 4 spot were we that in love with someone as a long term fit next to Wemby. That said I doubt there's anyone at 3 or 4 that we can't find with the 5th pick given the talent crop being lower this year.
bottom 5 are not set in stone at all...Have u been keeping up with the nba
Actually, I have.
Pistons and Wizards are hopeless, tanking on purpose.
Hornets just traded Rozier and will probably beat us to top3 odds.
Blazers are on our level, more or less. I'd say we're better now that everyone seems to be in a good role and Collins/Branham are getting DNPs.
Still, they've got 3 more wins and have had a lot of injuries.
Raptors did trade away their two best players, but they got solid players in return and aren't purposefully tanking.
I can't see us catching them with 6 games behind.
Memphis are playing well against all odds, can't see them dropping to bottom 5, despite all their injuries.
TL;DR
If us or the Blazers don't get to ~25 wins, I can't see Raptors getting top5 odds.
Or did you mean that the order of top5 isn't set in stone? I was referring to top5 worst teams already being known.
raptors are already sitting solid players already...Iq,barret,and poeltl are all out today.Poeltl was suppose to be back already...A very winniable game for
them to want to try to win against a rival.They are only 3 games behind portland.They might not catch up to wizards and pistons and
charlote...But think they can and will pass memphis,san antonio and portland to get in top 4
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