Reply With Quote
I really don't like the Franz Wagner comparison for Buzelis. It just seems quick and easy. He doesn't have the defense nor the creation abilities. (He is a good weakside shotblocker though.) I see more of a Mike Dunleavy.
His ceiling is Franz Wagner...his floor is outta the league.... he'll shoot in the upper 30% range playing in structure next to Wembanyama. He should be at least top 6 in this draft, but he'll probably go higher after individual workouts.
I really don't like the Franz Wagner comparison for Buzelis. It just seems quick and easy. He doesn't have the defense nor the creation abilities. (He is a good weakside shotblocker though.) I see more of a Mike Dunleavy.
Ugh what a terrible draft when your high risk high reward bet with a top 5 pick is a guy who could be Franz Wagner in the best case but not even NBA level in the worst. Just seems risky basing expectations on someone's HS performance.
Dillingham is the one I worry about jumping ahead of the Spurs range if the lottery pans out badly. Risacher I assume is gone if the Spurs end up 4 or lower.
This is why I'd almost rather pick 5 or 6 than 1-3, unless they really like Risacher. The rookie salary scale is more affordable and they're getting the same tier of player.
Dillingham consistently gets mocked later in the lottery and I'm not sure that will change. His efficiency is also ticking down as they continue conference play, so he may be a value pick there.
Think I'd much rather still have the earlier pick, as you're only talking the difference between $13.6 million in Year 4 for Scoot Henderson @ 3 vs $10.1 million in Year 4 for Anthony Black @ 6. Victor's Year 4 is $16.9 million @ 1, but if I get Pick #1 I'm trading it as I figure should be able to get a good vet not on his last legs from someone in love with Sarr.
If you have a top pick that you don't like, you'll eventually get to where Phoenix got with Ayton -- just ridiculous amounts of money. I don't want to pay that much to a middling pick.
Two players I absolutely love for the Spurs -- Rob Dillingham and Ryan Dunn.
Dillingham -- he's just exciting to watch. Natural 3 point shooter, and is so quick. Gives me AI/TP vibes with his quickness, not that I'm comparing him to those players. But's he an athlete. Listed between 6'2" and 6'3, he's light -- but has had some very pretty above the rim finishes, which he at times make look very easy. Seems to be a good passer with potential to be a very good passer, and while his defense is pretty good at the college level (impressive number of steals), most scouts think he'll be too slight to be very effective in the NBA. I guess we'll see, but he has something special to his game when he's feeling it. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he's average 25+ ppg and 7 or 8 assists by his third year in the league. I'm confident he'll be a top 5 pick to 8 pick in the draft.
Dunn -- if he can just be an average 3 point shooter than he's worthy of a top 7 pick in this draft. Every year there's some wing that looks like he could evolve into an elite NBA defender. Some do, most are usually above average to very good defensive players (there's only so many guys you can call "elite" before the term becomes meaningless). Very few of those guys fail to stick in the NBA completely, even if they only ever become useful role players/bench guys. I tend to follow those guys pretty closely. Anyway, point being Ryan Dunn looks like an all NBA defense level player in the ACC right now. I remember when he played Syracuse it was like he was a blur because he just came in from off camera to make a block at the rim or make a steal or deflection. His shooting is as bad as Sochan's was when the Spurs drafted him. I'm not going to predict that Dunn will have a Sochan level trajectory, but the Spurs do have a history of taking elite level defensive players and rounding out their offensive game. That'll be important, because right now Dunn has very little offensive polish. Very impressive above the rim finisher, he really looks like an NBA veteran with how easily he dunks the ball. He's definitely had some games where he's used his tremendous size and speed to score 20 points. He looks like a player who would be able to generate a lot of offense off steals and deflections in the NBA because he has plus NBA speed in the open court.
Bottom line: Honestly, this guy just looks like he's bigger, faster, stronger, and more fluid than college players. From an athleticism standpoint, he definitely projects as an NBA player. His defensive IQ is obviously very high given his overall impact as a help and man defender, and he makes switching onto bigger college centers look easy at times. I wouldn't be even slightly surprised if he ends up being an all-NBA defensive player on the wing. Could play a role similar to Aron Gordon on an NBA championship team if he develops. I do get the sense that he has some untapped offensive potential given how easy he makes certain high-degree of difficulty plays at the rim look routine. If he's becomes a league average shooter he could be the Wemby-era Bruce Bowen.
Always a sucker who thinks they can rehab a failed top pick though. Phoenix did alright getting Nurkic and Grayson Allen for him.
There was that YouTube showing the younger P Holt at one of Risacher’s games…
I definitely think they'll take long looks at Risacher, Topic and even Sarr.
Great article on Espn NBA frontpage today. Draft analysis by none other than Wemby himself. Breaking down the French prospects.
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/...raft-prospects
Wemby breaking
Some quick takeaways:
Risacher - Wemby's played with him in the past and loves his game. Thinks he's the most talented prospect out there.
Sarr - Doesn't really have a history with him, only played against him once. But is impressed with his progress lately and bold decisions to travel the globe improving his game. Also talked a bit about Sarr as a big guy staring to understand his body more and control it.
Salaun - Knows him well. Saluan, Wemby and Ruperts sisters were on the U16 team a few years back, so Wemby grew up as a kid hanging out with Saluan. Their families know each other well. Talked up his Motor and work ethic.
Melvin Ajinca - Has know him the longest, since they were 11. Has witnessed Melvin's maturity, both physically and on the court, first hand.
After reading this I'm pretty confident Risacher's our guy if he's on the board. And I think Wemby would be thrilled.
Damn, Victor, don't talk up one of our targets.
Reading between the lines on Salaun, he doesn't mention his talent or skills necessarily.
And funny reading a twenty year-old talking about a young player's 'maturity.'
Comment I read from spurs Reddit regarding Topic:
He reminds me of pre-draft Alperen Sengun. Turkish BSL MVP at the age of 18 and a bunch of detractors were like, "Yeah, but he won't be good in the NBA. The jump shot is funky and inconsistent, he's undersized, his defense isn't great, etc. But this Jalen Green kid! Hoo, boy, the potential! He's so athletic!"
People are overthinking Topic. He's one of the youngest players in the class, playing extremely well in a much better league than the NCAA. Opposing defenses throw everything they can think of at him and he still was dragging his team to victories, putting up 7 AST per game despite basically no one on Mega being able to shoot, and being second in the league in scoring despite his bad jumper because he's just really good at basketball.
I want to draft players that are really good at basketball. Especially in this draft, where very few prospects have an obvious standout skill (Topic does) or high-end potential in general (Topic does). If he's on the board at the Spurs pick, I hope they don't overthink it.
That's especially true if the Raptors pick doesn't convey. If we have two picks in the top 8, then sure, you might be able to sell me on, like, a Risacher + Dillingham combo. I still don't think I'd prefer it over, say, Topic + Walter or Topic + Holland, but I'd see the argument. If it's just our pick? Topic all the way.
Edit: By the way, on the subject of his shooting... People talk about how free throw percentage is a good predictor of developing a good 3-pt shot a lot, but I feel like that needs to really be put into context for Topic since it's his most common criticism.
Topic is shooting 88% from the line over the last three years. There are only sixteen players in the whole NBA doing that this year. Among those sixteen, the worst 3PT% is Jordan Clarkson at .303. That's an extreme outlier for Clarkson, whose career average is .336, and also for that group of players - the next lowest is SGA at .342.
You can go back and do this for prior seasons if you want more proof, but here's the point: the vast, vast majority of guys who shoot free throws as well as Topic does end up with at least a respectable 3-pointer. Even if he settles at around 33%, that would still force guys to guard him out there, which is the real point. Kyle Kuzma is shooting .329 this year and that's certainly enough to be considered a threat.
Yeah I love Wemby personality it is like a combination of Timmy and David with a little French flair. I am almost 100% that Sarr will be the first pick and Risacher will be the second pick either going to us or Washington. On a side note Bleacher report came out with new mock has us taking Topic with the 3 rd pick and a big but happy surprise they have us picking Ivisic with our second round pick.
No argument from me there.... this certainly isn't the best draft, but we have to work with whats there..
I think you'll find a lot of Dillingham fans here. His profile matches a number of excellent Kentucky guards, although there have been some misses (TyTy Washington). His handle is elite and he has good scoring capabilities. I'm curious to see how the rest of his year goes, as his efficiency has been dropping a tad.
Ryan Dunn really does shadow how awful Sochan's shooting was at Baylor. Their hideous ft% is practically the same at .58. Dunn actually measures out better than Sochan in counting and advanced stats. His impact is undeniable, but...? Virginia's Trey Murphy outplayed his draft position, I might add.
EDIT: Dunn is a sop re, I just noticed, and is over two years older than Sochan was at draft time.
They should be going after BPA anyways but Tre/Blake not looking like the worst PG rotation in the league should give them some wiggle room to not zero in on a PG like Topic if they don't absolutely love him. Even replacing Champagnie next season in the SL should lead to a massive improvement.
Reason why so far a bunch of euro guys (bunch of french I should say) who are playing pro are ranked higher on top of the draft. No one realy stands out in HS while these euros are showcaing their skills in compe itve pro leagues against grown men... That could change a bit with the Tournament although the Tournament doesn't actually weigh that much in scouts eyes, if any.
Plus the fact the NBA is in good part dominated by euro players these days (Luka, Jokic, Giannis), not mentioning the Markkanens of the world or even Bilal who's showing nice promises in Washington.
Oh, and that WembanyaMa (Reggie) kid.
Nah, they baly need a skilled, attacking PG. Blake should never be more than a 3d string, defensive specialist PG. I mean he's even missng dunks.
Which is why forwards like Holland, Buzelis, and Dunn scare the out of me. Imagine getting one of them and then realizing we miss Champagnie's 40% three point shooting.
Risacher will end up being the #2 overall pick imo. After Sarr. Not sure I agree with the Franz Wagner comparison here though.
Being that you have the chance to see this league way more than we do, are you sold on Risacher? I know the Spurs desperately need a PG but I think SF might be even worse given Keldon's not enough of a shooter to fit with the starting lineup and Champagnie is a ninth man or tenth man on the roster level talent.
Rob Dillingham. That man is Instant offense.
I think Dilly is universally liked on this site, but the his defensive liability is very real. And we’re already a terrible defensive team. You still take him if he’s BPA obviously, but at some point you need to start filling this roster with guys with size and who can defend. Cause right now we’re horrible in that regard.
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions