2024 NBA Draft Thread

[Dejounte]

Mr Body Is A But Sorry I Agree With Him Here. Being Brothers To Anybody In The Nba Has No Bearing On Ability. I Don’t Look At Cody As Being A Brother To Jalen And Think That’s A Benefit At All. Cody Is His Own Person And Should Be Viewed As A Blank Canvas.

[CGD]

Analogy is kinda of the way we humans make sense of the world, and it turns out offspring that come out of the same vagina and raised in similar settings is actually a pretty tried and true way for making predictions about the future. Award winning academic journals and Nobel prizes are written/awarded comparing siblings/twins all the time to try to inform our understanding in medicine & biology, hard and social sciences, genetics, etc. No one is saying its perfect, but you cant categorically call that a "logical fallacy" in a world were were a reaching for the best "comparisons."

#DraftCody

[mo7888]

Mr Body Is A But Sorry I Agree With Him Here. Being Brothers To Anybody In The Nba Has No Bearing On Ability. I Don’t Look At Cody As Being A Brother To Jalen And Think That’s A Benefit At All. Cody Is His Own Person And Should Be Viewed As A Blank Canvas.

Y'all should really, at least, come up with an example then. I have no idea who's correct because i haven't looked at it historically, but the other side did give examples(plural) to support their position. Your side should at least be able to produce a couple to at least make it a debate.

[Pauleta14]

Mr Body....

You realise he was just talking about PROBABILITIES, don't you?

It's a FACT that OFTEN TIMES (probability) younger brothers learn quicker by hanging out/training etc with their older brother(s)

We're doing projections and this argument has as much value than most in imagining what type of player one can become, especailly if you add Cody's hight or wingspan bigger than his brother's

[The Truth #6]

On one hand, each player should be analyzed on their own merits. But the fact is, players are always compared to other players and situations, looking for some way to find an insight. For example, people are looking at Topic as being a good prospect because he's from Europe and Sengun was underrated at a similar age and now he's doing well... To me, that's an even worse comparison than to someone's own brother.

[The Truth #6]

The "Kentucky guard phenomenon" is a another example of what I'm talking about. Dillingham might be really good because Maxey turned out really good.

I think the bigger issue is that drafting players is very hard and people are looking for any kind of trends that they can, so on one hand I think it's ridiculous, but on the other hand, I also see how people are doing their best to make sense of how to analyze a player and project how they will be in the NBA.

[Mitch Cumsteen]

I don't think we need look any further than the Cliff Paul / Chris Paul comparison to end this disagreement.

[Mugen]

Risacher will end up being the #2 overall pick imo. After Sarr. Not sure I agree with the Franz Wagner comparison here though.

He's going #1 tbh.

[LeBowen]

Since there are no must have prospects unlike last year, I think that most teams would be open to trading down.
If Spurs really want someone and are sure he's the real deal, it should be easy enough to trade up with 3rd-6th pick and additional assets.

Other teams with top5 odds have a history of bad draft decisions, should be easy enough to make a trade.

[CGD]

He's going #1 tbh.

I agree. I think Sarr is benefiting from the “Wemby Effect” right now (people think he is a unicorn or can guard unicorns). He could end up going #1, but this kids is probably the best talent.

[Pauleta14]

Risacher is for me the lowest risk/higher ceiling in this draft

Other than his size and bb skills, I love that he like Wemby has been prepared since a young age to play in the NBA with a father elite player and like Wemby lives in a pro environment since 15-16yo.

Also I just read Wemby endorcing him as "the most talented player in the coming draft", having known him since his time at ASVEL (TP's team in Lyon)

Let's hope WSH DET CHA... fall for the Sarr Topic ... hypes

[JPB]

Risacher is for me the lowest risk/higher ceiling in this draft

Other than his size and bb skills, I love that he like Wemby has been prepared since a young age to play in the NBA with a father elite player and like Wemby lives in a pro environment since 15-16yo.

Also I just read Wemby endorcing him as "the most talented player in the coming draft", having known him since his time at ASVEL (TP's team in Lyon)

Let's hope WSH DET CHA... fall for the Sarr Topic ... hypes

"Shhhh, Victor!"

[exstatic]

On one hand, each player should be analyzed on their own merits. But the fact is, players are always compared to other players and situations, looking for some way to find an insight. For example, people are looking at Topic as being a good prospect because he's from Europe and Sengun was underrated at a similar age and now he's doing well... To me, that's an even worse comparison than to someone's own brother.

Nope. It’s not about being European, it’s about being an 18 YO European kicking ass. 18 year olds rarely dominate in grown man Euro leagues. They rarely even get PT with the big club. In the last 7 years, we’ve seen it 3 times: Doncic, Sengün, and Topić. Two of those guys are kicking ass in the NBA, and teams will pass on Topic just like they passed on Sengün, and to a lesser extent Doncic.

[scott]

Please define "kicking ass" in regard to this topic, I'd like to test this premise that Topic is one of three 18 year olds to "kick ass" in European leagues and thus we should take that as a signal of NBA success. I'm not being snarky here, I think this would be good data to look at.

While I'm at it, maybe I'll put some data together on brothers in the NBA as well.

[CGD]

"Shhhh, Victor!"

Victor single-handedly making people millions:

Bilal: $2-3M annually more for Wemby hyping him all the way to the lotto

Risacher: $1.5M more annually with this endorsement which will cement him as a Top2 pick.

Sarr: $3-4M more annual bc of “Wemby Effect”

That Purdue Center: was SRP but now FRP salary bc of Wemby Effect

Filipowski: jumps into lotto bc of Wemby effect

[exstatic]

The "Kentucky guard phenomenon" is a another example of what I'm talking about. Dillingham might be really good because Maxey turned out really good.

I think the bigger issue is that drafting players is very hard and people are looking for any kind of trends that they can, so on one hand I think it's ridiculous, but on the other hand, I also see how people are doing their best to make sense of how to analyze a player and project how they will be in the NBA.

Maxey, IQ, SGA, Fox, Booker, Jamal Murray, Herro, and Monk. The UK guard the is a thing. Someone here said “it’s only because they get the best recruits”. SO WHAT? UK guards drafted in the first round have a ridiculous hit rate, and it’s something you can hang your hat on. Early first like Fox and Murray, mid first like SGA and Book, or late first like Maxey or IQ. It doesn’t seem to matter, they can all ball.

[Mugen]

Victor single-handedly making people millions:

Bilal: $2-3M annually more for Wemby hyping him all the way to the lotto

Risacher: $1.5M more annually with this endorsement which will cement him as a Top2 pick.

Sarr: $3-4M more annual bc of “Wemby Effect”

That Purdue Center: was SRP but now FRP salary bc of Wemby Effect

Filipowski: jumps into lotto bc of Wemby effect

Similar to Shaq getting a lot of bum centers paid throughout the 90s and early 2000s

[The Truth #6]

Nope. It’s not about being European, it’s about being an 18 YO European kicking ass. 18 year olds rarely dominate in grown man Euro leagues. They rarely even get PT with the big club. In the last 7 years, we’ve seen it 3 times: Doncic, Sengün, and Topić. Two of those guys are kicking ass in the NBA, and teams will pass on Topic just like they passed on Sengün, and to a lesser extent Doncic.

I don't think you refuted anything I typed. I'm referring to the same situation. It's another example of trying to find parallels.

[The Truth #6]

Maxey, IQ, SGA, Fox, Booker, Jamal Murray, Herro, and Monk. The UK guard the is a thing. Someone here said “it’s only because they get the best recruits”. SO WHAT? UK guards drafted in the first round have a ridiculous hit rate, and it’s something you can hang your hat on. Early first like Fox and Murray, mid first like SGA and Book, or late first like Maxey or IQ. It doesn’t seem to matter, they can all ball.

Of course I know about the Kentucky Factor, or whatever it's called, you think I brought it up randomly? I don't completely dismiss it. Just like I'm completely aware that Sengun and Topic are both 18-year-old Europeans doing very well, which is also why I brought it up.


Is there some deeper point you are trying to make in this thread?

[exstatic]

Please define "kicking ass" in regard to this topic, I'd like to test this premise that Topic is one of three 18 year olds to "kick ass" in European leagues and thus we should take that as a signal of NBA success. I'm not being snarky here, I think this would be good data to look at.

While I'm at it, maybe I'll put some data together on brothers in the NBA as well.

Keep in mind that Euro clubs rarely play 18 YOs,let alone start them. I’ll use the non EuroLeague numbers for Doncic (Spanish ACB) and Şengün (Turkish league) to more compare apples to apples, since Topić only played 2 EuroLeague games before his injury.

Doncic 12.8p/5.0a/5.7r on 46/28/77 splits
Sengün 19.2p/2.5a/9.4r on 64/18/81 splits
Topić. 18.6p/6.7a/3.7r on 52/28/85 splits

[scott]

In non-player/team related draft news:

[scott]

Keep in mind that Euro clubs rarely play 18 YOs,let alone start them. I’ll use the non EuroLeague numbers for Doncic (Spanish ACB) and Şengün (Turkish league) to more compare apples to apples, since Topić only played 2 EuroLeague games before his injury.

Doncic 12.8p/5.0a/5.7r on 46/28/77 splits
Sengün 19.2p/2.5a/9.4r on 64/18/81 splits
Topić. 18.6p/6.7a/3.7r on 52/28/85 splits

Research project initiated. I'm going to focus on the Top 8 Leagues in this article: https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/...ll-leagues-nba - it is an older one, but it's the most relevant I could find to set a baseline in order to prevent hunting down some 18 year old prospect averaging 45 ppg in some backwoods Brataslavan league.

Note, however, that I do think there is an immediately difference between Doncic, Sengun and Topic that needs to be taken into account. Doncic and Sengun did their work in the top 3 leagues (per the ESPN rankings), whereas Topic was doing it in a much lesser league on a much lesser team that he got loaned to (and presumably could get more PT and spotlight). Topic's first two ABA games back with Red Star did see a drop off in performance and efficiency, and he certainly did not impress in the two EuroLeague games. While it is a small sample size, I think it is too premature to either write Topic off OR to automatically put him in a list with Doncic and Sengun of 18 year olds who "kicked ass" in European leagues.

None the less, I'm going to do some research and we'll see if it holds up.

[SpursBills]

Research project initiated. I'm going to focus on the Top 8 Leagues in this article: https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/...ll-leagues-nba - it is an older one, but it's the most relevant I could find to set a baseline in order to prevent hunting down some 18 year old prospect averaging 45 ppg in some backwoods Brataslavan league.

Note, however, that I do think there is an immediately difference between Doncic, Sengun and Topic that needs to be taken into account. Doncic and Sengun did their work in the top 3 leagues (per the ESPN rankings), whereas Topic was doing it in a much lesser league on a much lesser team that he got loaned to (and presumably could get more PT and spotlight). Topic's first two ABA games back with Red Star did see a drop off in performance and efficiency, and he certainly did not impress in the two EuroLeague games. While it is a small sample size, I think it is too premature to either write Topic off OR to automatically put him in a list with Doncic and Sengun of 18 year olds who "kicked ass" in European leagues.

None the less, I'm going to do some research and we'll see if it holds up.

This right here is exactly why I have backed off on my enthusiasm of topic since my initial post on him - that post was operating under the assumption that ABA is comparable to ACB, which I’ve since realized is a faulty premise, and may significantly affect his projection. Thanks for doing the leg work on this, I’m very curious to see the results!

[baseline bum]

Nope. It’s not about being European, it’s about being an 18 YO European kicking ass. 18 year olds rarely dominate in grown man Euro leagues. They rarely even get PT with the big club. In the last 7 years, we’ve seen it 3 times: Doncic, Sengün, and Topić. Two of those guys are kicking ass in the NBA, and teams will pass on Topic just like they passed on Sengün, and to a lesser extent Doncic.

BSL and especially Euroleague are better compe ion than the ABA. I'll believe the hype on Topic if he produces in Euroleague but the early returns weren't too promising before he got hurt.

[exstatic]

BSL and especially Euroleague are better compe ion than the ABA. I'll believe the hype on Topic if he produces in Euroleague but the early returns weren't too promising before he got hurt.

It was two games.