Fischer: Spurs Repeatedly Mentioned By NBA Figures As Potential Home For Young

[Splits]

Really rooting for the future Spur to win this 3pt contest.

[objective]

RE: the Hawks front office and whether they'd want to roll with Murray or whether or not they'd prioritize getting their picks backs and stuff like job security ....

The Owner's son is the one who while not at the top of the organizational charts is thought to be the one in charge because he has his father's ear. And job security.

They ignored their established GM's opinion on the Murray trade and forced him out only a year after the ECF on Junior's say so, Landry is just the guy who executes

But they also have been hyper stingy and done whatever it took to avoid the tax, like ultimately trading away 2 starters for 1 combined first that hasn't even completed yet. And they've sold off picks.

So the whole "who's in charge and what edicts does he have to follow" makes this different than other cases of absent picks and stars.

Billionaire Nepo-Babies don't have to live in reality or make sense, life is a playground.

So if Nepo decides that his gut was right to get Murray and he can't be wrong about it, then Young becomes the convenient scapegoat. HE'S the one who constantly fails, not Nepo's decisions. Murray hit 2 game winners in a row recently without Young getting in the way! And if by moving Young along gets them out of or further away from the tax, so much the better.

[Joseph Kony]

It’s funny that you have no rewarding comprehension.. If I were adamantly against Trae you, would I have proposed any trades? I’m adamantly against giving up all of their picks, plus Toronto, plus our pick this year.

[gambit1990]

i'd be surprised if this happened.

i think the hawks want flashier pieces to show for moving trae.

[gambit1990]

and would the hawks really move murray and trae?

then they'd have a hole at the point / ball handler.

[Mr. Body]

RE: the Hawks front office and whether they'd want to roll with Murray or whether or not they'd prioritize getting their picks backs and stuff like job security ....

The Owner's son is the one who while not at the top of the organizational charts is thought to be the one in charge because he has his father's ear. And job security.

They ignored their established GM's opinion on the Murray trade and forced him out only a year after the ECF on Junior's say so, Landry is just the guy who executes

But they also have been hyper stingy and done whatever it took to avoid the tax, like ultimately trading away 2 starters for 1 combined first that hasn't even completed yet. And they've sold off picks.

So the whole "who's in charge and what edicts does he have to follow" makes this different than other cases of absent picks and stars.

Billionaire Nepo-Babies don't have to live in reality or make sense, life is a playground.

So if Nepo decides that his gut was right to get Murray and he can't be wrong about it, then Young becomes the convenient scapegoat. HE'S the one who constantly fails, not Nepo's decisions. Murray hit 2 game winners in a row recently without Young getting in the way! And if by moving Young along gets them out of or further away from the tax, so much the better.

This is the future conservatives and neolibs have us. There are more ultra rich made from inheritance than actual ideas or work nowadays, so basically a future of failsons making lousy decisions and wrecking things for everyone, but then our politicians are all bought and sold anyway.

[ginobilized]

RE: the Hawks front office and whether they'd want to roll with Murray or whether or not they'd prioritize getting their picks backs and stuff like job security ....

The Owner's son is the one who while not at the top of the organizational charts is thought to be the one in charge because he has his father's ear. And job security.

They ignored their established GM's opinion on the Murray trade and forced him out only a year after the ECF on Junior's say so, Landry is just the guy who executes

But they also have been hyper stingy and done whatever it took to avoid the tax, like ultimately trading away 2 starters for 1 combined first that hasn't even completed yet. And they've sold off picks.

So the whole "who's in charge and what edicts does he have to follow" makes this different than other cases of absent picks and stars.

Billionaire Nepo-Babies don't have to live in reality or make sense, life is a playground.

So if Nepo decides that his gut was right to get Murray and he can't be wrong about it, then Young becomes the convenient scapegoat. HE'S the one who constantly fails, not Nepo's decisions. Murray hit 2 game winners in a row recently without Young getting in the way! And if by moving Young along gets them out of or further away from the tax, so much the better.

Sounds like a lost episode of Succession. I wasn't aware of the situation in Atlanta.

[TD 21]

Again, we aren't talking about what you think makes sense. We're talking about what incentives front offices respond to, and those pretty clearly show teams do not get their picks back trades. This might be the first time that happens, but if it does, it'll go against the trend. It's fine to believe that might happen, but it's shaky to assume it's going to happen when it hasn't happened in like situations.



The thing is, this trade is an accute event, so talking about the Hawks later eroding into a rebuilding team does nothing to reverse the incentives their front office has. It's sort of like how the Spurs, Grizzlies and Sixers didn't tear down when they were aging teams stuck in the mire, even though their continued decline was foreseeable.



Where does that end? It's not merely a trade. George, Leonard, Davis, Durant and Lillard all asked out. Davis and Durant are the only teams that got traded to the place that had the most leverage, and that only happened because those teams bent over and gave everything for them. The Lakers and Heat thought they had the leverage and lost out to teams that were willing to come correct and offer substantial deals. I'm not suggesting the Spurs wouldn't come correct in their offer. I am saying that teams tend to go with the move that gives them leverage over reducing the leverage they have against them. I would not be surprised to see a team beat the Spurs out for Young even if they want him. Of course, as I mentioned, with the DPE available this summer and a year-long restriction after signing it, I don't think we'll see a Young trade demand.



That's ... fine? You quoted me talking about how the Hawks might not value their picks back given that teams tend to not value them. I'm glad in the scenario where the teams want to make a trade you think they can make one. I wouldn't disagree there. But I don't see why the discussion should be locked into that scenario. When you purposefully reduce the complexity of the band of scenarios, of course it's not convoluted at all. But when folks are getting into the weeds about where their personal lines for what they want the Spurs to offer and how much they think it'll take, that complexity comes back. It's not because we know those teams have complex beliefs about those picks, but because we don't know what beliefs they have. Assuming we do is how you get people saying certain scenarios are likely that don't jive with history.

Nobody is assuming anything and you're speaking to a generalization when the context is different for every superstar and star trade. The context here checks a lot of boxes to think it could have legs.

It ends with the player getting traded, sooner than later. If push comes to shove and the Spurs get beat out, it'll more than likely be because they were too conservative. No matter what direction the Hawks may prefer, as some point overall value generally takes precedent and of the teams rumored interested, they've got the most to offer.

[itzsoweezee]

One idea that needs to be jettisoned, IMO, is the premise that ATL is going to undertake some moves to enter a hard re-build while San Antonio controls their draft for the next 3 years. If Atlanta trades Trae to someone else, it will be for a return they feel will make them better, not turn them into bottom dwellers so that the Spurs can reap the benefits. That is just wishful thinking. The Hawks may end up bad and the Spurs may be a high high, but it won't be because the Hawks are hard tanking.

No, the hawks wouldn’t be hard taking, but assuming they would get better by trading Trae would be even more wishful thinking on their part.

If that organization acts rationally at all, it will either (1) not trade Trae to anyone or (2) trade Trae to the spurs. Trading to the lakers or another team will absolutely blow up in atlanta’s face. And San Antonio, if it is acting rationally, should not throw everything it has in the offer for Trae (quite the contrary). The spurs have all the leverage here.

[scott]

It's not about what you think is the likely outcome. It's about how front offices react in these situations. We have seen repeatedly that a team that leverages its future before deciding to sell off assets does not make a priority to reacquire its picks. The only example I can remember of a team doing that is Hinkie getting Philly's protected pick back from Orlando in the Saric/Payton trade. That's it. Even right now, we see Houston trading for Brooklyn's future after selling theirs to OKC and Brooklyn taking Phoenix's rather than trying to get theirs back from Houston. As I said, for better or worse, teams don't do what posters feel confident the Hawks will do.

Most front offices can't survive tanking. So if they have something that's already making them watchable, they aren't necessarily going to be able trade that away with the explicit plan to be awful for three years. They will have to spin it as a way to improve. With Young eligible for the DPE this summer, the Hawks are not in a position where they risk losing Trae for nothing. They have a lot of options open and different trades they can make to rework their roster. Just as the team might trade Murray and keep Young, they might do the opposite under the belief that they can use the greater haul to make an immediate change to their roster. Without knowing what packages are available and how the front office views either player, we don't know what plan they think is the most viable.



I think it's very much the opposite. You and other posters are trying to avoid reality by abstracting it and setting yourself up to be disappointed. A lot of the situation about the Spurs trading for Young is built off theory-crafting and second- or third-order speculation. We don't know if the Spurs have any interest in making a move. We don't know if the Hawks plan to trade either guard at this point, let alone which one they'd try to trade. We don't know what direction they want to go and thus what priority they'd be looking for in packages. We don't know what other teams are willing to offer. We don't know what other players would be on the market. They could get Young, yes. Or they might be beat out by another team. Or they might not even want him. , no one's even considered that Young trade chatter boosts Murray's trade value because it gives the impression that Atlanta might be willing to build around him instead. That would be very similar to what the Spurs did with Parker when they were trying to trade Hill.

No, I'm not saying don't speculate. That's basically what this board is for. I am saying the pieces are probably not fitting together as smoothly as some might think, and if they think that there's probably some wishful thinking taking the place of evidence.

Trying to understand the DPE rules, I thought two things were needed to qualify:

1) a player must have 7 or 8 years in the league;
2) the player must make an all-NBA team (or other things that won't happen) in the season immediate proceeding the extension or two of the three proceeding years>

Two things about Trae:

1) This is only his 6th season
2) He would still need to make an all-NBA team to be eligible for the DPE. I'm not sure how well he is tracking towards this accomplishment, but he was an All-Star replacement, which wouldn't indicate to me that he is on track for all-NBA 3rd team or better.

Does Trae immediately count as in his 7th year (and thus 7 years of service) one day into the new league year? Or his DPE eligibility actually begin in the summer of 2025?

And if he does sign an extension, can it be written as to override his Player Option year (effectively opting out of that option in advance and having it replaced by the exception), or does it by default opt-in?

Interestingly, the standard vet extension (140% of the player's previous salary in the last year of his deal) is already larger for Trae ($68.5MM) than 35% of the 2028 projected cap ($187.7MM * 35% = $65.7MM). So, the 140% rule doesn't really come into play, and Trae would be capped at the SuperMax DPE 35% if he qualifies, or at 30% of the cap if he does not qualify. The difference between the SuperMax versus normal Vet Max for Tre will be $56MM versus $66MM in the first year, and a 4/254 deal versus a 5/385 (if the extension kicked in 2028)

5 and 6-year contracts (including option years) can be extended after the 3rd anniversary of the contract signing. This is only the 2nd year of Trae's current contract, but it was signed on Aug 6, 2021, so I presume that is what makes Trae extension eligible on Aug 6, 2024. (https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/nba-c...-zobell-xk4lc/). However, much like it was in Tatum's interest to wait a season to become SuperMax eligible this summer (as opposed to signing a 2/98 extension last summer), that Trae would want to wait until the Summer of 2025 to be SuperMax eligible when he'll have 7 years of service under his belt (which I think answers my previous question)

I'm just trying to understand how Trae is extension eligible this summer, and you are pretty sharp with the CBA stuff. Am I missing something?

Note: this post has been edited multiple times as I did more research

[Mr. Body]

Trae has made an All-NBA team once, two years ago, on the third team. Considering that he only made the All-Star team this year as an injury replacement, I don't think he'll be looking at one anytime soon.

[scott]

If Trae does not qualify for the DPE, then he is a case where he may want to sign a shorter term extension so that he could make a run at a 35% extension in his 10th year... though the smart money might still be to take the 4/254 rather than risk it.

[JPB]

Great chemistry already

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

It wouldn’t be a cheep package, but the Spurs dont need to throw everything at them. Show me what other team is making the mega offer first. Spurs will need to throw Keldon into the deal, and he has value in his own right too.

Pelicans: McCollum, Herb Jones, Daniels/Hawkins + unprotected Lakers pick, unprotected Milwaukee 27', 1-4 protected Pelicans pick in whatever year
OKC: Giddey, Wallace, huge TE (they're under the cap) + however many picks you want to add
Orlando: Suggs, Black, TE + Den '25(1-6 protected), Orl 26', 28', 30' (1-4)
Wolves: KAT
Lakers: Reaves, Hachimura, Russell + Lakers 24' or 25', 29', 31'
Rockets: Vanvleet, Green, Whitmore + Nets 24', Nets 26', Nets swaps in 25', 27'
Jazz: Sexton, George, TE + Cle 25', Min 25', Cle 27', Min 27'

Nets could also throw a ton of picks at them, but in the case of trading Young to a team that isn't SA they're more likely to value getting promising players as well, not just picks.

Young is a good player, despite his flaws, and there would definitely be a bidding war for him. Sure, Spurs can probably outbid everyone due to owning Atlanta's own picks, but he won't come cheap at all, both in terms of value SA would have to send and also salary-wise when they extend him.

[Robz4000]

Skimmed this thread due to the activity the last few days and basically agree with Chinook tbh. I'd be cool with Trae Young but the Spurs need to be thinking long-term with Wemby. As amazing as he's looked he's shown clear signs he won't be ready to be the #1 on a contender for a few seasons, and the 25/26 drafts look pretty damn great at the top tbh.

[JPB]

Skimmed this thread due to the activity the last few days and basically agree with Chinook tbh. I'd be cool with Trae Young but the Spurs need to be thinking long-term with Wemby. As amazing as he's looked he's shown clear signs he won't be ready to be the #1 on a contender for a few seasons, and the 25/26 drafts look pretty damn great at the top tbh.

Wemby will be a NBA top 10 player next season. He's already All NBA defensive, eads the league in blocks, and puts on 20 & 10 on a bad night in a dysfunctional team with no real help... Add in Trae + a couple vets and play Vic 32-35mn/game and he's a 27-30 & 12 player by next year, then ready to lead in year 3.

[Robz4000]

Wemby will be a NBA top 10 player next season. He's already All NBA defensive, eads the league in blocks, and puts on 20 & 10 on a bad night in a dysfunctional team with no real help... Add in Trae + a couple vets and play Vic 32-35mn/game and he's a 27-30 & 12 player by next year, then ready to lead in year 3.

love Wemby but top 10 next season is a pretty tall order. Assuming the Spurs get Young there's zero chance Wemby averages close to 30; there just won't be enough touches/usage. To even get close to that Wemby would have to significantly improve his efficiency which won't happen over one offseason.

[LeBowen]

love Wemby but top 10 next season is a pretty tall order. Assuming the Spurs get Young there's zero chance Wemby averages close to 30; there just won't be enough touches/usage. To even get close to that Wemby would have to significantly improve his efficiency which won't happen over one offseason.

Usage takes are so annoying and casual.
Wemby is missing 5ppg just because his teammates don't have good enough court to find him for easy layups when he's wide open.
His usage is more than enough already. He'll naturaly get more efficent as he develops, cuts out bad shots and turnovers.
Not to mention how opponents can triple team him now without any fear of being punished because his teammates can't shoot.

He's averaging 20.5ppg in 28mpg.
With an elite playmaker, he could easily be at 23-25ppg already even with restricted minutes.
With an elite playmaker and 33-35mpg, he can easily reach 30ppg without even needing to increase his usage that much.

And he'll be the best defender in the league within a year or two and it won't even be close.

[Robz4000]

Usage takes are so annoying and casual.
Wemby is missing 5ppg just because his teammates don't have good enough court to find him for easy layups when he's wide open.
His usage is more than enough already. He'll naturaly get more efficent as he develops, cuts out bad shots and turnovers.
Not to mention how opponents can triple team him now without any fear of being punished because his teammates can't shoot.

He's averaging 20.5ppg in 28mpg.
With an elite playmaker, he could easily be at 23-25ppg already even with restricted minutes.
With an elite playmaker and 33-35mpg, he can easily reach 30ppg without even needing to increase his usage that much.

And he'll be the best defender in the league within a year or two and it won't even be close.

Wemby is missing PPG mainly due to his inefficiency; jacking up shots early in the shot clock and trying to dribble in traffic with his high handle aren't doing himself any favors. It's also been said ad nauseum but Wemby isn't actually open all the time when he calls for the ball; he needs to learn to pick his spots better tbh. Normally I'd say there would be improvement going into next season but the Olympics will take away from his offseason development pretty significantly imo.

Call the usage argument casual all you want but if the Spurs get Young Wemby won't get the same touches he's gotten this year if only for the fact he'll be sharing the court with a player used to similar touches while playing with another ball-dominant player in DJM.

Call me crazy but I don't think Wemby eclipses 30 mpg next season either tbh; i dont think he'll develop the proper conditioning until he gets a full offseason to truly hone himself.

[Robz4000]

Truthfully, I think the Spurs' improvement between this season and the next will come way more from player/roster improvement than Wemby's own improvement tbh.

[tbdog]

[CGD]

Pelicans: McCollum, Herb Jones, Daniels/Hawkins + unprotected Lakers pick, unprotected Milwaukee 27', 1-4 protected Pelicans pick in whatever year
OKC: Giddey, Wallace, huge TE (they're under the cap) + however many picks you want to add
Orlando: Suggs, Black, TE + Den '25(1-6 protected), Orl 26', 28', 30' (1-4)
Wolves: KAT
Lakers: Reaves, Hachimura, Russell + Lakers 24' or 25', 29', 31'
Rockets: Vanvleet, Green, Whitmore + Nets 24', Nets 26', Nets swaps in 25', 27'
Jazz: Sexton, George, TE + Cle 25', Min 25', Cle 27', Min 27'

Nets could also throw a ton of picks at them, but in the case of trading Young to a team that isn't SA they're more likely to value getting promising players as well, not just picks.

Young is a good player, despite his flaws, and there would definitely be a bidding war for him. Sure, Spurs can probably outbid everyone due to owning Atlanta's own picks, but he won't come cheap at all, both in terms of value SA would have to send and also salary-wise when they extend him.

Who’s saying he’d come cheap?

Im in the camp that it’s ridiculous to throw everything for Trae. That’s 1) unwise, and 2) unnecessary.

Of the scenarios above, OKCs is the only one materially better than what a Spurs package built around Keldon. But it makes no sense for them.

[CGD]

If the Spurs hold the line on giving ATL back their 2025FRP (they should), I wonder if the thing that allows them to sell this trade to the fans is getting the Spurs top 3 pick in 2024.

Framework around:
Keldon + 2024 Top 3 pick + 2027FRP + one of the protected FRPs

[Dejounte]

If the Spurs hold the line on giving ATL back their 2025FRP (they should), I wonder if the thing that allows them to sell this trade to the fans is getting the Spurs top 3 pick in 2024.

Framework around:
Keldon + 2024 Top 3 pick + 2027FRP + one of the protected FRPs

Is Trae always going to be better than anyone projected in the top 3 right now? The answer is yes. Rissacher and Sarr have no chance of being Trae-level good.

[CGD]

Is Trae always going to be better than anyone projected in the top 3 right now? The answer is yes. Rissacher and Sarr have no chance of being Trae-level good.

Yeah, a no brainer from Spurs prospective just wonder if ATL sees it that way. Allows them to see to the base that they got a “Top 3 pick” etc