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If we draft Topic he'll run the team straightway imo.
Spending some time this afternoon checking on the more popular ones, it seems obvious to me Topic should be the one we go after. The problem is, will he get any playing time at all under Pop, or will be more Tre Jones/Blake Wesley than we ever wanted while Topic plays spot minutes and doesn't see important time unless it's the last possible option a la George Hill in his first post-season.
Beno killed Pop's ability to coach backup PGs, imho. When he couldn't beat Detroit's trap in the 05 Finals, Pop had a mental breakdown and hasn't coached the backup PG position well since. Tanking this season only for a repeat of that behavior would be incredibly frustrating, still, if Trae Young don't happen, I say Topic is our best "build from the bottom" option to team with Wemby.
If we draft Topic he'll run the team straightway imo.
Beno’s problem was he arrived 10 years early. If he had been drafted in 2014, Pop would have let him shoot that pull up3, instead f benching him for it.
since then, we've had backup point guards like george hill, cory joseph, dejounte murray, and tre jones
i like topic in theory, but think he needs to prove himself against euroleague compe ion before you can really justify taking him top 3-5. ive said a few times that if you are going to draft a guy who isnt a good shooter, you need to ask if they are really specail somewhere else. think he fits that criteria
He also has a strong shooting signal with his 88% FTs. The 3 isn’t as important in Europe as it is here.
Topic could be anywhere from #1 to #10 on my board since we have only seen him in the ABA. I really need to see if he can survive in Euroleague without a three point shot before I'd be comfortable drafting him to run the offense here. A game and a half in Euroleague isn't enough for me to know whether to want him or not. Though every other prospect has huge question marks too. Eg could Sarr play next to Wemby or is he just redundant? Can Williams three point shooting percentage hold up when he'll be shooting them a lot more here? Does Risascher have the upside to draft #1 or #2? Is Dillingham too small to play in the NBA? Is Sheppard athletic enough? Is Buzelis' recent shooting in G-League just a streak or is it who he actually is? And so on. Though I pretty much have written off Walter and Holland, don't want either.
Someone posted the highlights to Isaiah Collier's last game, which are a crazy watch. He's like a faster, bigger Scoot Henderson in some ways, just bullying poor Cody Williams around like a ragdoll, who looked like a high schooler called up to experience a college game, but then the shot looks wild and some of his passes, even in highlights, are just wildly off. When I watched him a while back I hated his effort on defense. Maybe that's improved.
If we did draft Collier to pair with Vassell, Holt Jr. should get on the phone with Dole Pineapple about a stake in the team, or at least a le sponsorship.
That's a good description of those highlights. Banking three pointers, sloppy alley oops. But there's something there. Just not sure if Pop would be the best fit for him. High boom/bust potential already. But even more so under Pop maybe?
He’s 6’4”, makes a living at the rim, and doesn’t pass or shoot particularly well. Not even sure the rim scoring would translate to the NBA, and it will take YEARS before he gets the calls he now gets at USC.
Definitely not ruling Topic out, but I get the sense this could be Sengun redux in that he'll be thought of as the Spurs stereotypical target, but is not what they're looking for.
In their ideal world, I think they want a generalist as their lead guard. Someone who's not the most dynamic, but good enough at everything and not heliocentric.
Maybe they make an exception for an established star, but investing a potential top 3-5 pick in a sub par shooter, who can't defend at the point of attack means they'll need to find a wing who can do so and Vassell defending up a position more often.
Thank you for clarifying. I was not aware of those insights when I said he has a high bust potential.
I was agreeing with you, not arguing. It’s called an amplification post.
Geez, I hope not. Sengun was a MASSIVE miss by the front office. Truly a up of the ages. Fortunately it lead to the lucky-ass lottery draw of Wembanyama -- Sengun would have pushed us up the board at least a little.
Topic will still be 18 on draft night. He has a ton of development to do. If they feel he can develop a shot and not play stinky defense, he probably has the highest upside of the three internationals projected to go high (Sarr, Risacher). But to me, if we have to pick one of them, he's the guy as he can actually run a team and projects more than a narrow role. (Despite a powerful need of a small forward.)
Despite that, he only has a usage rate of 24% right now, which means he's not 'heliocentric' and suggests he gets the offense moving not just by his direct actions but if he can't shoot then it's hard to play him off-ball.
The weird thing is that he shoots 3s better in possession of the ball rather than off of catch and shoot. That’s opposite of the norm. I still feel that he will become not just a good, but a very good 3 point shooter, like 40%. The long ball just isn’t important in the euro game.
George Hill was mismanaged for years, imo. Pop's hand was forced when Dallas IIRC was going to sweep us in the first round. Before that, Hill had only played spot minutes in "real" games.
Cory Joseph's a bit better but there wasn't any pressure to coach him into something that's hitting all the touchstones for potential growth. He's a solid guy, for sure, but I feel like it's a neutral take on Pop's coaching a ent.
Dejounte, I'm on the fence about. Has he grown, sure, but it was clear he would need to grow into a big role with TP entering his last days. That's not really a backup PG in the traditional sense.
Today's situation would be different, because Tre Jones now has a bunch of games as a Spur under his belt. He's also been mismanaged, at least this season. He should have been starting, even though he's a backup PG. So again, Pop messed up with his backup PG (in this case, by keeping him there rather than starting him).
I also remember Van Exel underachieving, for instance. He was already in "savvy vet" status back when we grabbed him hoping for a repeat, but still, somehow he ended up just not being good when it mattered. Whether that was on Pop is obviously debatable, but I just feel like it's a trend that, while not exactly "f" grade level as much of this season's been, it's barely passing. Maybe C or even C-.
Pop is - or was - way better at developing/motivating starting PGs, (which is where I'd put DJM, for example) not really backup PGs.
as for the euroleague kicker, yeah I definitely agree. But he's got all the physical tools and already a good passer. Three point shooting can be worked on and improved. This draft is honestly very mid from even my layman's eye so I'm just calling it like I see it, which obviously ain't pro/scout status.
Has Topic returned to play yet?
100%. I feel need someone with all-star level passing potential, at the bare minimum. That's Topic so that's who I went with.
Sarr is definitely my number 2 pick. If Topic isn't the guy, Sarr should be imho. I'd kill for another Twin Towers, AND he's French. the only thing keeping me from ranking him #1 for these Spurs is, will another Twin Towers be feasible in today's NBA? Our problem, more than anything, is getting good shots on offense/avoiding dry spells, especially when Wemby is struggling. I think Sarr is definitely going to have a career in the NBA, but clogging the paint already works wonders on our team. Wemby is the GOAT defender already imho, just needs a bit more experience - and we still get our asses busted night in and night out by the opposing team's three point shooters.Eg could Sarr play next to Wemby or is he just redundant?
We definitely NEED three point shooting, and he's got a sweet stroke. but no way does anybody but the absolute S+ tier elite in the League shoot 50%+. Furthermore, I don't trust our squad to get him the ball in his spots at all. Even McDermott couldn't hold 50% here. The rest of his game appears to be like a lesser Devin Vassell. I like his eurostep but his speed doesn't jump out at me or whatever at all. I'd pass in all honesty.Can Williams three point shooting percentage hold up when he'll be shooting them a lot more here?
Upside, perhaps. But what I'm looking for is a passer, not another wing scorer. We SHOULD have that ish covered, especially we're not making a major trade and "building/growing" via development and the draft. Vassell, Keldon, and Sochan all are better than this dude right now, imho. They lack his size but that's about it. Too raw for what we need, though that's pretty rich considering I want Topic, I realize.Does Risascher have the upside to draft #1 or #2?
Risacher looks awesome but his role is going to coincide too hard with our other wings who will already be entering major contract territory.
Dillingham isn't too small, imho. he's Trae Young's size or maybe even bigger if he's truly 6'2. but one thing you can't teach in the NBA IS size. He's intriguing but I'm leaning with Topic because he's bigger and SHOULD be able to QB the team better from the gate (if he gets the chance). That said, Dillingham looks like he'll have an NBA career that's quality, so tough choice there.Is Dillingham too small to play in the NBA? Is Sheppard athletic enough? Is Buzelis' recent shooting in G-League just a streak or is it who he actually is? And so on. Though I pretty much have written off Walter and Holland, don't want either.
Sheppard I actually haven't checked out yet, will do so a bit later. Buzelis REALLY surprised me in the rising stars game. He's another guy who it might be silly to sleep on. This draft kinda sucks in that regard, you're very correct, dude lol. it feels like it's a total crapshoot. The more I research the more I'm divided, but we need a man who can take care of Wemby, Vassell and Sochan and get them (especially Wemby) easy buckets. That's probably Topic out of all these guys - in my humble opinion.
espn (Givony and Woo) and theathletic (Vecenie) have released a mock draft today. Both have Risacher at #1 and Sarr at #2 but are quite different after that. For example Dilligham is #3 on espn and #14 on theathletic.
Compiling both mock draft and adding with what Vecenie is saying in his draft comments, we can make some tiers:
Tier 1:
Risacher
Sarr
Tier 2:
Cody Williams
Topic
Tier 2.5 (these players' projection varies a lot, from 5 to 25 for some of them):
Dillingham
Buzelis
Ja'Kobe Walter
Ron Holland
Reed Sheppard
Stephon Castle
Tier 3 (second half of the lottery):
Salaün
Filipowski
Clingan
Dalton Knecht
Isaiah Collier
For reference
https://www.nba.com/news/nba-draft-faq
With the new CBA, the NBA combine will be mandatory. We will have measurements for all the top prospects except the ones that are still playing in their leagues (Topic, Risacher and maybe Salaün).Here are the key dates for the entire 2024 Draft process:
April 27: NBA Early Entry Eligibility Deadline (11:59 p.m. ET)
May 12: NBA Draft Lottery 2024 presented by State Farm
May 13-19: NBA Combine (Chicago, IL)
June 16: NBA Draft Early Entry Entrant Withdrawal Deadline (5 p.m. ET)
June 26: NBA Draft 2024 presented by State Farm (First Round)
June 27: NBA Draft 2024 presented by State Farm (Second Round)
While I believe in his shooting percentage (more or less), Cody Williams only gets up two a game (per 31 minutes). I'm sure that can change, but will his accuracy suffer? Risacher puts up 3.4 in only 23 minutes.
Sheppard puts up 4.2 threes in 28.4 minutes at an absurd percentage. I actually believe his absurd percentage (more or less). He picks his moments, though, and I'd love to see his catch-and-shoot and guarded splits.
Dillingham gets up 4.4 threes in 23.3 minutes and hits at a still pretty absurd .448 rate. He had a three game span where he went 2-12 and games where he's like 0-2 or 0-4 but has more games where he hits really well, although he's been roped in a bit lately. Unlike Sheppard, I feel like he gets his in multiple ways.
yeah the volume is one thing, and when you combine it with the longer nba 3 point line, its not something you can lean on much. ive read people point out that castle's 3pt% in the last 10 games has been at 40%, but on similarly low volume
The Spurs don't really have other wings I give much a about the new guy getting in the way of tbh. Vassell hasn't proved to be that guy yet and Keldon has proved he isn't. Only guy I care about someone getting in the way of is Victor so I'm not very high on drafting Sarr and would probably trade the pick for a quality veteran if Sarr is still on the board when the Spurs are picking. Though there are no shooting guards anyways other than Walters who I do not want. I don't think drafting a ballhandler is any more a necessity than drafting someone who can shoot and score, especially since the Spurs can probably get Tyus Jones for a Vassell like contract to run the PG here. Sucks that Toronto's likely going to keep that pick so can't draft both a swing and a PG.100%. I feel need someone with all-star level passing potential, at the bare minimum. That's Topic so that's who I went with.
Sarr is definitely my number 2 pick. If Topic isn't the guy, Sarr should be imho. I'd kill for another Twin Towers, AND he's French. the only thing keeping me from ranking him #1 for these Spurs is, will another Twin Towers be feasible in today's NBA? Our problem, more than anything, is getting good shots on offense/avoiding dry spells, especially when Wemby is struggling. I think Sarr is definitely going to have a career in the NBA, but clogging the paint already works wonders on our team. Wemby is the GOAT defender already imho, just needs a bit more experience - and we still get our asses busted night in and night out by the opposing team's three point shooters.
We definitely NEED three point shooting, and he's got a sweet stroke. but no way does anybody but the absolute S+ tier elite in the League shoot 50%+. Furthermore, I don't trust our squad to get him the ball in his spots at all. Even McDermott couldn't hold 50% here. The rest of his game appears to be like a lesser Devin Vassell. I like his eurostep but his speed doesn't jump out at me or whatever at all. I'd pass in all honesty.
Upside, perhaps. But what I'm looking for is a passer, not another wing scorer. We SHOULD have that ish covered, especially we're not making a major trade and "building/growing" via development and the draft. Vassell, Keldon, and Sochan all are better than this dude right now, imho. They lack his size but that's about it. Too raw for what we need, though that's pretty rich considering I want Topic, I realize.
Risacher looks awesome but his role is going to coincide too hard with our other wings who will already be entering major contract territory.
Dillingham isn't too small, imho. he's Trae Young's size or maybe even bigger if he's truly 6'2. but one thing you can't teach in the NBA IS size. He's intriguing but I'm leaning with Topic because he's bigger and SHOULD be able to QB the team better from the gate (if he gets the chance). That said, Dillingham looks like he'll have an NBA career that's quality, so tough choice there.
Sheppard I actually haven't checked out yet, will do so a bit later. Buzelis REALLY surprised me in the rising stars game. He's another guy who it might be silly to sleep on. This draft kinda sucks in that regard, you're very correct, dude lol. it feels like it's a total crapshoot. The more I research the more I'm divided, but we need a man who can take care of Wemby, Vassell and Sochan and get them (especially Wemby) easy buckets. That's probably Topic out of all these guys - in my humble opinion.
Yeah Williams is pretty high risk, just like Buzelis. But everybody's high risk in this draft other than maybe Risacher.
Yeah, they all have risks, but I feel pretty good about a number of them - at least those in the range of the Taylor Hendrickses and Jarace Walkers last year.
Cody Williams, just dunno. On the one hand, even in the last few games when his turnovers shot through the roof (he's weak and fairly slow, having to push-off to get anywhere on good defenders) his shooting efficiency has been really high. Like, when he shoots, he often makes. (Except free throws, although that's an issue for almost all these guys.) He has the length to be a good defender, but isn't yet. And then he just doesn't do anything else. Okay assists, few rebounds. I think he got slotted way too high on the back of his brother and will need to move down again.
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