Toronto Pick Watch (Top 6 protected)

[Splits]

It would probably be more advantageous to putoff the Toronto pick until next year or the year after. There's no harm in carrying it forward, can be used for trade value. Those wanting it this year are just being greedy, although it does look like a 7-9

[Mr. Body]

It would probably be more advantageous to putoff the Toronto pick until next year or the year after. There's no harm in carrying it forward, can be used for trade value. Those wanting it this year are just being greedy, although it does look like a 7-9

Yes, wanting to add players of need to this team is being greedy.

[Splits]

Yes, wanting to add players of need to this team is being greedy.

Rookies suck. 2nd year players aren't much better. If you buy into the 4 year program, yeah, it can happen on a 25% luck chance. Would much rather use semi-guaranteed pics to strategically improve and trade the TOR/CHI/CHA/ATL +thirty 2nds for known quan ies

[scott]

It would probably be more advantageous to putoff the Toronto pick until next year or the year after. There's no harm in carrying it forward, can be used for trade value. Those wanting it this year are just being greedy, although it does look like a 7-9

I disagree, in that a bird in hand is better than a 33% reduction in the chances of it conveying. If you want to punt the pick towards a future year, you can still do so with it conveying - but IMO it would be best for the pick to be known to be conveying, especially if it conveys at or near it's maximum pick value (#7-9). If it does not convey next year, the odds of it threading the needle perfectly to land in that #7-10 range are reduced (though not impossible).

[rascal]

I disagree, in that a bird in hand is better than a 33% reduction in the chances of it conveying. If you want to punt the pick towards a future year, you can still do so with it conveying - but IMO it would be best for the pick to be known to be conveying, especially if it conveys at or near it's maximum pick value (#7-9). If it does not convey next year, the odds of it threading the needle perfectly to land in that #7-10 range are reduced (though not impossible).

Yes, if the pick conveys this year looks to be in a great range 7-10. Might not convey that high in another year or might not convey at all.

Also Spurs are already going to add two firsts next year guaranteed at a minimum.

[jjspur]

Yes, if the pick conveys this year looks to be in a great range 7-10. Might not convey that high in another year or might not convey at all.

Also Spurs are already going to add two firsts next year guaranteed at a minimum.

Absolutely agree. Better now in the 7 - 10 range, rather than next year where it could be in the 7 - the low 20's range. Lets be totally honest no one knows where that pick will eventually fall.

However that means replacing at least 2 current spurs and possibly another with with our multiple second rounders. Sure we could use an infusion of talent, but its going to be very young inexperienced talent. Maybe a trade for a current 2nd year Player or an seasoned not so old vet?

[exstatic]

Last year's 1-5 were better prospects than that range this year.

3 of them were deer, and are struggling mightily.

[exstatic]

It would probably be more advantageous to putoff the Toronto pick until next year or the year after. There's no harm in carrying it forward, can be used for trade value. Those wanting it this year are just being greedy, although it does look like a 7-9

You do understand that there’s a substantially non zero chance that if the TOR pick doesn’t convey this year, we could have a train wreck of FIVE FRPs next year. Ours and ATLs are sure things, but TOR, CHI, and CHA could all convey. Expediency alone dictates that it’s better for TOR to convey this year.

[Mr. Body]

There are good guards and wings available this year. Just take one of each and start developing them.

[spurraider21]

Rookies suck. 2nd year players aren't much better. If you buy into the 4 year program, yeah, it can happen on a 25% luck chance. Would much rather use semi-guaranteed pics to strategically improve and trade the TOR/CHI/CHA/ATL +thirty 2nds for known quan ies

Spurs already have a guaranteed 2 first rounders in 2025. May also get one from chicago. May even get one from Charlotte. So you don’t necessarily want to push it out. There are some projected stars in 25 but not in the range of the raptors pick even if it does convey. It may not. It may convey in the late teens.

the roster needs a talent infusion asap. Getting an additional top 7-8 pick this year would be huge

[Mr. Body]

Nearly every contender drafts their way there. I can think of very few champions who did otherwise. Maybe the Lakers for their fake bubble victory, but they're the Lakers.

If someone wants to demand trading for known quan ies, tell us who those quan ies are.

EDIT: Oh yeah Toronto with nephew. That was years ago.

[sfernald]

Yes, wanting to add players of need to this team is being greedy.

The bulk of this team is so bad the only way they will be able to compete is if they manage to draft another generational talent. Maybe two more. We basically need to bring on a Steph and a Zion along with Wemby if we ever wanna have a chance to make up for the ty KJs and crappy Zollins. So we need to be greedy!

[sfernald]

Nearly every contender drafts their way there. I can think of very few champions who did otherwise. Maybe the Lakers for their fake bubble victory, but they're the Lakers.

If someone wants to demand trading for known quan ies, tell us who those quan ies are.

EDIT: Oh yeah Toronto with nephew. That was years ago.

The spurs already have drafted their way to a championship by drafting Wemby a generational talent who is already a top 20 player in his rookie season. They just need to put the right vets around and the championships start pouring in like rain.

[RC_Drunkford]

I also hope the Raptors pick conveys this year. Draft an SF and a PG. Replace Champagnie with the rookie SF in the starting line up. Play the rookie PG off the bench and package 2 of Jones, Wesley or Branham for an upgrade at starting PG.

[exstatic]

Nearly every contender drafts their way there. I can think of very few champions who did otherwise. Maybe the Lakers for their fake bubble victory, but they're the Lakers.

If someone wants to demand trading for known quan ies, tell us who those quan ies are.

EDIT: Oh yeah Toronto with nephew. That was years ago.

If you really want to split hairs, they did, anyway, since the assets they sent, outside of one pick, were their draft picks: DeRozan and Jak.

[exstatic]

The spurs already have drafted their way to a championship by drafting Wemby a generational talent who is already a top 20 player in his rookie season. They just need to put the right vets around and the championships start pouring in like rain.

We’re talking the bulk of the roster, not one player. Example: GS with Steph, Klay, and Dray; Denver with Joker, Murray, MPJ.

[scott]

I also hope the Raptors pick conveys this year. Draft an SF and a PG. Replace Champagnie with the rookie SF in the starting line up. Play the rookie PG off the bench and package 2 of Jones, Wesley or Branham for an upgrade at starting PG.

If we are going to go the slow, build through the draft, see what the 2025 draft offers after improving to a 35 win team, then I think something like this works in my ideal scenario of drafting Dilly and Matas:

Tre/Dilly (Dilly starting by EOY)
Vassell/TBD
Hayward/Matas
Sochan/TBD
Wemby/TBD/Bassey

In my NBA2k simulation, I got rid of Collins (I honestly don't remember how), Branham and Wesley. Somehow I ended up with Naz Reid to backup Wemby while Bassey continues to recover. I signed Hayward (as you can see above) and Royce O'Neal to backup Sochan. I traded Keldon for Grady straight up to get off Keldon's contract. backs up Vassell. I guess you could plug Branham behind Vasselly and Collins behind Wemby... but I'd rather not .

You could certainly start Matas and have Keldon be the 6th man, or maybe move Keldon back to the starting lineup. The Tre/Dev/Keldon/Sochan/Wemby lineup actually has pretty good results this season. As of right now it's our 3rd most used lineup and has a +13.5 NetRtg (source: https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/ad...mID=1610612759)

This isn't a super exciting offseason if Bran, Keldon and Collins are still there... but it adds two good prospects and leaves all draft capital in tact.

[Splits]

Spurs already have a guaranteed 2 first rounders in 2025. May also get one from chicago. May even get one from Charlotte. So you don’t necessarily want to push it out. There are some projected stars in 25 but not in the range of the raptors pick even if it does convey. It may not. It may convey in the late teens.

the roster needs a talent infusion asap. Getting an additional top 7-8 pick this year would be huge

Only having our own top-5ver this year would force the FO to get off their ing ass and do something. You can't just bring back this lineup with a new rookie next year. I could see an approach where they're like, "oh yeah, we have two top tenners we're going to roll with and see if Wemby can put up a 5x10 every night"

these people, bring us in some vets that can guide.

[Splits]

Still strongly believe we draft Bronny with our LAL 2nd just to shiv those mother ers

[gambit1990]

Still strongly believe we draft Bronny with our LAL 2nd just to shiv those mother ers

no way he falls that low. he's great trade capital TBH.

[gambit1990]

so what's the optimal spot for the raptors to finish in? like, tenth or eleventh in the east?

[Ditty]

I am also starting to be on the, I wouldn't be upset if we don't receive the TOR pick this year thought. SA still would have two more drafts to get that pick and Ujiri seems to be against rebuilding. I understand that possibly having five first round picks in 2025 is a bit inessential. So far, the projected top six picks in 2025 would probably go #1 in this years draft. Might end up with a much better talented player in next years draft. I understand both arguments, so I would be fine also if the Spurs just get it over with when it comes to that pick.

[spurraider21]

so what's the optimal spot for the raptors to finish in? like, tenth or eleventh in the east?

Dno if there is one specific spot but anywhere between 7-10 probably. Even at 7 i think it’s about a 70% chance of the pick conveying. Then a few extra percentage points per slot after that

even at 6 it’s slightly more than 50% but that’s pushing it

[exstatic]

so what's the optimal spot for the raptors to finish in? like, tenth or eleventh in the east?

I would say 8th. Only once with the current flattened odds that started in 2019 has a team lower than that jumped into the top 4, ATL in 2019, and only twice has an 8th jumped into the top 4. It’s also the second best pick that we could keep, the best being 7th.

[CGD]

If we are going to go the slow, build through the draft, see what the 2025 draft offers after improving to a 35 win team, then I think something like this works in my ideal scenario of drafting Dilly and Matas:

Tre/Dilly (Dilly starting by EOY)
Vassell/TBD
Hayward/Matas
Sochan/TBD
Wemby/TBD/Bassey

In my NBA2k simulation, I got rid of Collins (I honestly don't remember how), Branham and Wesley. Somehow I ended up with Naz Reid to backup Wemby while Bassey continues to recover. I signed Hayward (as you can see above) and Royce O'Neal to backup Sochan. I traded Keldon for Grady straight up to get off Keldon's contract. backs up Vassell. I guess you could plug Branham behind Vasselly and Collins behind Wemby... but I'd rather not .

You could certainly start Matas and have Keldon be the 6th man, or maybe move Keldon back to the starting lineup. The Tre/Dev/Keldon/Sochan/Wemby lineup actually has pretty good results this season. As of right now it's our 3rd most used lineup and has a +13.5 NetRtg (source: https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/ad...mID=1610612759)

This isn't a super exciting offseason if Bran, Keldon and Collins are still there... but it adds two good prospects and leaves all draft capital in tact.

Yikes. Imagine drafting Dillingham 2nd or 3rd over one of Risacher, Sarr, Topic, Williams or even Matas. That would be a fireable offense.