But the catch is that they'd be trading the CERTAINTY of moving up 4 spots in this (lesser) draft, for the POSSIBILITY that they move down next year, which may not happen at all since the lottery is probabilistic. So they could be moving up 4 spots for free, or for a swap between picks 5 and 7 next year. Washington takes the bird in hand, Spurs take 2 (more like 10) in the bush.
Or lets go full Presti mode:
Spurs trade #1 pick for Wasihington swaps in '25 AND '26. They give up a #1 pick pick for what may end up being nothing (if the Spurs natural pick is better than Washington's), or Cooper Flagg / Ace Bailey + Boozer / Dybantsa
With Dillingham looking like he's playing his way into the top 3 not interested at all. Could have sold me earlier on the deal when it looked like you could get Dilly at 5 but I'd much rather have Risacher and #7 than Coulibaly and Buzelis or Coulibaly and Topic if Nikola pulls a Wiseman and sits out the season after being cleared or continues right where he left off by looking like crap in Euroleague.
Cody Williams. I actually feel the brother connection doesn't work in his favor. I trust the player who came out of obscurity to earn it, not the one getting accolades who hasn't really earned anything. Where's the motivation? I still think he's a Spur type player in a stereotypical sense but skeptical. Depends where our picks drop I suppose.
Others I would deprioritize: Holland, Buzelis, Sarr, Jakobe Walter.
Players I'm intrigued by: Dillingham, Topic, Isaiah Collier, Risacher, Furphy, Knecht, Sheppard, Castle.
Just spitballing.
I have no freakin idea where Dillingham will fall. He could blow up in the NCAAT and still be expected to drop to 10. A lot of the draft gurus won't look at him in their mocks until halfway through the lottery at least, but then some like Givony have put him high. Then there's a matter of who would actually take him high - like, Detroit, Charlotte, Portland, probably not even Memphis, I don't think any of those teams would take him high. I think he'll go around 5 or 6 and possibly after his teammate.
Washington doesn't have the capspace to improve next year so no matter what they're almost certainly a bottom three team next year with Flagg looking like he could be a franchise changing player to tank for. So that's out, they're not doing it. 26 is an absolute no-go because Washington has a ton of capspace for 25-26 and will just do what Houston did and overpay a couple of free agents to get them to 35 wins and congrats, you swapped your 2024 #1 pick for the #9 in 2026.But the catch is that they'd be trading the CERTAINTY of moving up 4 spots in this (lesser) draft, for the POSSIBILITY that they move down next year, which may not happen at all since the lottery is probabilistic. So they could be moving up 4 spots for free, or for a swap between picks 5 and 7 next year. Washington takes the bird in hand, Spurs take 2 (more like 10) in the bush.
Or lets go full Presti mode:
Spurs trade #1 pick for Wasihington swaps in '25 AND '26. They give up a #1 pick pick for what may end up being nothing (if the Spurs natural pick is better than Washington's), or Cooper Flagg / Ace Bailey + Boozer / Dybantsa
dubious wingspan
he is 2 inches shorter than Risacher with the same WS not saying it's impossible but I'm still hesitant
Topic just seems like this years Shaden Sharpe. A chimeric hypothetical you can't see until you buy
, looking at clips yeah I guess Topic does kind of have freakishly long arms
His proportions are pretty weird, the long thumb head makes his body look more squat than it really is
Dillingham sure looks like an NBA player right now. Don't think Detroit would be scared off of having a second offensive initiator when Cade has the size to play next to him. Charlotte can't afford to not pick best player available when so far in his career Lamelo is a China doll who you can only depend on being there 35 games a season. And Scoot has had a horrible rookie season so don't see Portland ruling out a PG either. Only bottom 6 team I see not being interested in him is Memphis because no way you could play him with Ja.
Is there any reason to hope Castle could develop into a competent three point shooter? Otherwise you're drafting Tre Jones when you already have him.
Detroit isn't picking Dillingham because:
1) Troy Weaver's job is on the line. He has failed miserably at putting together a roster that makes sense (which he tried to address at the deadline), and if he passes on Risacher for Dillingham, he might lose his job ON THE SPOT.
2) Detroit ALREADY HAS Cunningham, Ivey, and Sasser, and Dillingham isn't Weaver's cup of tea anyway.
I'd be SHOCKED, ABSOLUTELY SHOCKED if they take Dillingham.
I can't see Portland taking Dillingham if only for how it'd look on the FO, him and Scoot are incompatible and they're unlikely to acknowledge (or at the very least signal) that they made a mistake after just a year. People much rather rationalize than honestly assess their recent decisions, and I bet they'd convince themselves that they made the right pick and double down (even if they're wrong).
Charlotte... meh.... it's not impossible they take him and move on from Lamelo (I would strongly consider that), but who knows.
All in all, I think there's a very big chance he's there at 7/8, unless he goes ballistic in the tournament (could very well be, though).
Tre Jones isn’t a solid built 6’6” paint finisher. You can’t really compare two players,just because neither is a three point shooter. Doesn’t make them the same.
I never said Detroit would pass on Risacher for Dillingham, come on stop with the strawman. Seems like a lot of ridiculous hopium that somehow the best PG in the draft is going to fall to precisely where the Toronto pick would convey.
Last edited by baseline bum; 03-08-2024 at 09:27 PM.
Detroit is definitely not taking another Guard
Detroit's not in a position to pass on talent.
Pretty likely Detroit will target a Risacher or Williams and they'll probably get him.
Risacher's probably going #1 and they get a 14% chance at that. Best case they can get him #2 if the team getting the #1 pick loves Sarr. We already saw them drop to #5 last draft with the same odds they'll have this one. Taking a wild swing on Cody with a top 5 pick as he's slipping is probably the last thing a team that has to make this draft mean something wants to do.
Would Washington pass on Dilly? Bc I see no reason why they would
^ DET desperately needs shooting. Risacher has to be their top target I would think.
I am intrigued whether that team would cough up one of their decent young players to move up to get their guy if they again fall out of the top 3. Something to watch.
Detroit not taking a pg… Washington might depending on draft position and the board. Pg is a deep position in this draft.
Feels like our first pick has to be Dillingham or Risacher. For me at least. Have to get shooting. If they're off the board then Topic or Collier. Then I would get Furphy or Knecht in that scenario with the Toronto pick.
Lots of complementary combos. Dill and Castle could be interesting. Collier and Knecht like I said. One SF, one point guard. Castle as a SF is interesting with his connective skills and defense.
Just not two who can't shoot.
No, but it's more to do with tbe fact that I had Coulibaly 21 on my board last year and haven't seen anything thos season to make me second guess that.
Washington needs everything man. Could see them taking Sarr or whoever the best PG prospect end up being.
You keep #1 & #7
It's not even a compelling question for me.
This again?
Risacher is definitely the cleanest fit, but it's not inconceivable they could prefer Dillingham to Ivey and shop the latter while he still probably retains most of the sheen he had.
Dillingham could easily play with Ball the same way Rozier III did by being able to cross match defensively and interchange offensively.
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