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You missed Tyrese Maxey. Anyway, Sheppard I doubt is 6'2", more like 6'1" with negative wingspan. Dillingham may not even be 6'1", he's probably closer to Garland and Trae Young.
The more I watch Sheppard and Dillingham the more I realise how small they are. I think both will be about 6’2 without shoes and both will have average to below average wingspans.
Having said that I still like both of them with the potential Raptors pick. I don’t think I’d take either with a top 3 pick.
The only successful picks at 6’3 or smaller since 2015 draft.
Ja Morant
Darius Garland
Trae Young
Jalen Brunson
DeAron Fox
Donovan Mitc
I may have missed a few but that’s a quick glance.
You missed Tyrese Maxey. Anyway, Sheppard I doubt is 6'2", more like 6'1" with negative wingspan. Dillingham may not even be 6'1", he's probably closer to Garland and Trae Young.
Despite what I think the FO will do, what I think they should do is probably draft Sheppard. Even if he goes back to a low usage off ball role for the rest of the season, I've seen enough to convince me that he would do well in a higher usage role.
His impact at the college level is insane. This was from a few games ago, but I came across this stat for the season:
Sheppard, no Wagner = +30/100
Sheppard, no Dillingham = +24/100
Wagner, no Sheppard = -6.5/100
Dillingham, no Sheppard = -3.7/100
Don't know how reliable college +/- is, but clearly the guy just plays winning basketball.
The jump shot will almost definitely translate and is his most bankable skill. His form is picture perfect with a compact release and he's shown that he can get it off C&S and off the dribble in the PNR. Because of that alone, his absolute floor is probably Seth Curry, as he shoots a better percentage on similar volume with similar FT percentage as sop re year Curry with far better "feel stats" and creation upside.
High-median outcome, I expect something approximating a CJ McCollum/smaller Lonzo Ball hybrid. CJ shot a worse percentage on higher volume with similar FT percentages and has similar dimensions to Reed. Different roles on offense, book on CJ coming out was also a great jumper with a lack of blow-by ability and concerns getting to the rim. He was also excellent at generating turnovers. And Reed just reminds me of Lonzo in the way he plays, with his knack for being in the right place and the way he constantly tries to push the ball ahead.
The most interesting question is what happens if he has hidden creation upside. I want to emphasize that this outcome is not likely. But we have a Kentucky guard who's clearly taking on a lesser role on a talented team who's demonstrated that he can maintain a strong offensive output with increased usage. This is a story we've seen before. Jamal Murray and Tyrese Maxey are probably the best examples of this, but there are many others out there. And Reed's jumper is so wet that he may be able to leverage the threat of it to compensate for his relative lack of wiggle and blow-by ability. If we look outside of Kentucky guards, we have another example of a recent ultra-efficient guard who was pegged as a secondary creator due to concerns with athleticism and wiggle:
https://www.tankathon.com/players/co...ese-haliburton
It's not likely, but can we definitely rule this out as an upside tail?
With regards to defense, it will likely be a problem. But unlike someone like Dillingham, Reed's shown himself to be not completely hopeless on the defensive end. He has a stronger build and his outlier-level coordination may help him to overcome some of what he gives up in size and wingspan. If guys try and back him down in the post, I feel better about his ability to poke the ball away. And if he gets stronger, my hope is that he can at least get to mid-career Curry level defense, which is actually enough where you can probably build elite defense.
I'd say Topic's ceiling is still higher, but for what this team needs and with Topic's scary downside risk, Reed has emerged as a far better choice. Vassell's improving creation and Wemby's surprising passing chops have made it so that you need a guy who can reliably switch between on-ball and off-ball roles. Additionally, Topic's downside is a completely unplayable player in Killian Hayes or Josh Giddey while Reed's is at least a somewhat useful floor spacer. For my money he gives you the best combination of upside and downside while still being relatively low-friction in terms of building around him.
Because they play against GrOwN MeN.
It is literally impossible to conceive of existing on the same floor as such ans, much less the greatness of simply gathering a rebound or dribbling the basketball.
Non-shooters would not be great.
Viva la Knecht!
Posting this in here too since it’ll definitely effect the rockets draft positioning (OKC owns their FRP this season):
Gnarly looking injury for Sengun. Sucks tbh. At the tail end of the game no less. I imagine he’s done for the season and likely much longer.
Rockets are currently slotted at the 11th pick. With Sengun out (assuming) the rest of the season, they’re not going to win many more games imo. OKC’s about to get another top-10 pick.
If they get Sheppard, I'm gonna be really pissed. He would fit right in, in place of the pedo.
The more I watch Sheppard, the more I feel like the worst case scenario is that he becomes a championship level role player. I don't see his floor being much lower than that. Pair that with the not so remote chance of him becoming a borderline all-star and I'm liking him more and more with the Raptors pick. Heck, I would even consider him in the top 3 over guys like Topic and Sarr, if Risacher is off the board.
They already had the Houston pick. What changed?
Why the does OKC have the Rockets' pick? What re ed move did they make? Don't tell me it's still damage from the Chris Paul trade
djohn2oo8
You know who else has a REALLY bad looking shot? Tyrese Haliburton. Butt ugly. Coyote ugly. A lot of GMs ed up bybthining like you do.
The worst the Rockets can really do is slip down to 9. I can't see Brooklyn winning enough to catch up. Incidentally, if Houston jumps up to 1-4 when the balls are picked, OKC never gets the FRP as it converts to SRPs.
Utah is the more interesting case. OKC also gets their pick, but it's protected 1-10 this year. The Jazz seem to be tanking a bit to make sure it stays down there, the way Dallas did theirs last year. Right now they're 9th worst with Atlanta having a game on them at 10th worst.
I don't see the Thunder taking Sheppard. They go for large guards and he's an undersize spot-up guy who can't play the kind of man defense they want. They have enough picks that they can move up to take whoever they want, anyway.
The difference is Haliburton averaged 42% from 3 on 4 attempts per game in college.
The moment of reckoning for front offices is going to be when his combine measurements come out. If he measures 6'1" barefoot with a 6'2" wingspan, front offices are going to have to think long and hard about spending a top 3 pick on him.
I have no idea how he's doing what he's doing with his measurements. Not just his steal rate, but dude is shooting >65% at the rim with >90% of his shots unassisted. Those are legitimately freshman Kyrie percentages (66% with >95% unassisted) except Kyrie has one of the most sophisticated layup packages we've seen in the history of the game. He's doing everything on low-medium volume so that's probably part of it, but either the guy's just cherry picking easy opportunities constantly or there's something there that we can't see.
Shame that injuries did their number on TOR, Jazz could have really helped that situation out, but now they are sitting with a 5 game cushion over TOR and I doubt Raptors can even win 5 more games. We really need Memphis to start thinking of their draft position and cut this try hard bull .
Someone pointed out that Sheppard has fewer takes at the rim than Dillingham has makes. It's not a huge part of his game, but he's really not high volume anyway. He's very picky about his shots and often shoots only when open.
If it's just the ankle it's only the season. Ugh if he has tears in his knee though, probably misses next season and then takes another year to get back to 100% just like Dejounte did with his ACL tear. Really sucks since he's an up and coming star and a lot of fun to watch.
Yeah, including your ass pal Brian Wright. For every Hali, there’s dozens of people who don’t fix their shot. And I can tell you didn’t both referencing Halliburton’s college stats, much less compared them to Castles.
Sheppard is the guard version of Chet. Like DAF86 said, it's very possible OKC will go after him, he'd be perfect for them. And they 100% can get him if they want to, whether he's in their range or not.
Reminded me of this story: https://uproxx.com/dimemag/tyrese-ha...-change-video/
“When I got drafted, Luke didn’t really know anything about me, and one of the stories he told me recently was that Coach Kerr had called him, cause I worked out for the Warriors. And Coach Kerr called him and was like, ‘We love that kid, don’t ever touch his jumper.’ And Luke was like, ‘Are you sure?’ And he was like, ‘Yeah yeah, don’t touch it.’ Luke just kind of let me do my thing and from there no one’s ever messed with me about it.”
Jesus Christ, Reed Sheppard is Chet Holmgren now.
I mean in terms of how he approaches the game, very selective, low usage and efficient, doesn't force the issue, great shooter, plays both ends with the same intensity, makes winning plays.
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