2024 NBA Draft Thread

[rascal]

It sucks that okc was able to take our shooting guru from underneath us. Just wondering if Rylan Griffen makes anyone’s prospect radar? The only times I watched him this year was in the tournament but he looked to have some good tools, especially shooting.

Why was that? They offered more money?

[rascal]

I'm a little tired of these takes on the last game of the year for Dillingham. It's just lazy and inept.

Kentucky wasn't prepared for a zone. This is on Calipari. Apparently he asked a team during exhibition season to not run a zone against them. People now saying Calipari never scouted teams and opponents saying Kentucky was the easiest team to scout -- they always did the same thing. Oakland ran a zone.

Gohlke was slaying them. They tried Sheppard on him, and he had his usual trouble. They had Dillingham on him and with his quickness he did... alright. Characteristic to him, he would help off Gohlke, like unbelievably bad ideas, but that's also coaching. Dillingham made absurdly bad rotations all year, which I chalk up to a history of never being coached. (He was at Kanye West's academy and then Overtime Elite.)

Running around after Gohlke must have been tiring him out.

Down the stretch, he was trying to get them back in it, like he did all season. Con uously, Reed Sheppard was nowhere to be found. None of the other recruits were to be found. Reaves was good, but he had to be set up. Dillingham was not good down the stretch, but again he had a defensive assignment he'd never had before. And when he nailed a pretty crazy three, he never saw the ball again.

After he hit that bomb, the next possession, Sheppard slow-dribbled up and launched this baffling covered three that wasn't even close. Calipari called his first timeout the entire game, I believe, with seconds left to go.

I'm not defending Dillingham necessarily. I don't think the Spurs will take him. He has issues. But the blame he gets for this game is just so casual it's almost hilarious.

So he had a bad shooting game because he had to guard someone and was tired. You have to come up with a better excuse than that.

The team didn't come up big in a big time spot and since he's their top player and had a poor shooting game yeah much of the blame is going to fall on him.

[mo7888]

Basically, routes in the 1-8 lottery:

- Small forward.

Risacher, Buzelis, Holland, Williams. Each seems like a project and won't solve any wing issues right away. Each is more of a project, which is okay, but all of them have shooting issues. Risacher has fallen off a cliff for a while now. Williams is efficient but doesn't shoot much. Someone did point out that Holland's numbers match very closely to fellow Ignite alum Jonathan Kuminga and that he's an absolute dog in some aspects of defense. That's intriguing.

- Guard (Offensive Type)

Dillingham, Topic, Collier. Each of these has issues on defense. Each of them may be a good get on offense. You're probably looking at a guy who can get offenses going, run pick-and-rolls, and either threaten the rim or the perimeter, possibly both. You may have to totally give up on defense with these guys and hope they come around with work.

- Guard (Defensive Type)

Castle. Can he run an offense? Maybe not at the top level you'd want, at least for now, but he can certainly initiate and get players the ball. Not incredibly quick, he can get to the rim more with strength and movement. Won't be a threat from outside, but his initial value is as a potential elite defender. He's caused a lot of problems for lead scorers in the tournament so far.

- Utility Guard

Reed Sheppard. I don't project Sheppard as a lead guard or as a defensive stopper. He's not quick enough, nor has the processing, shiftiness, or handles, to really run an offense. I'd love to be wrong about this, but as a kick-out destination he could be great. He's also not a defensive stopper but is a strong help defender who may become part of a good overall defense.

So... These are our choices. You can't pick a player who is not in the draft. If you don't go for a small forward project, then you go for a guard. And you pretty much have to decide offense or defense as early primary traits. The team needs both. The value of a Castle is that you have someone who may be able to slow down Jalen Brunson or Maxey and evolve into more. Yes, there are problems with starting next to Sochan, but Castle would be coming off the bench at first anyway.

I think those are pretty good observations. A couple things where I differ a little bit is on Dilly and Shephard. On Dilly I'm having a hard time seeing him being useful, because of his size, if his shooting drops off. There's no real 2nd skill that im confident in. On Shephard, I agree with the utility guard eval, but I do think he's got enough court vision and handle to develop into a lead guard in certain offenses.

[scott]

I really don't like any of these guards.

I'd probably go with two forwards if we get the TOR pick, thankfully most of the top guys have position flex to play SF or PF. I'd prefer Buzelis and Holland. I'm not super excited about it, but my hope would be that one pans out in a big way and the other at least becomes a serviceable backup.

Probably still looking to just trade at least one pick though.

[SpursBills]

There's been a lot of debate on here about Dillingham and Sheppard's measurements - I've seen a huge range of speculation from 5'11" to 6'3". Whether or not this matters (and I guess we'll see for sure at the combine), Dillingham measured 6' 0.75" barefoot with a 6'5" wingspan at the OTE combine last year, so I think his current measurements will be something similar. Sheppard looks about the same size or slightly bigger, so he'll probably measure similarly.

I've liked Castle's defense this entire tournament and I like that he's bought into the team concept as a role player on a championship team. One thing that is a little bit concerning that hasn't really been mentioned, are his splits against better compe ion. He's done very well this tournament, but if you break down his splits by top 100 teams and then top 50 teams, you see that his numbers drop across the board against better compe ion. BPM, offensive rating, 2pt%, 3pt% all go down while TO% goes up with better compe ion. This is not something that you see for other guard prospects like Sheppard, Dillingham, Devin Carter, or Isaiah Collier whose numbers hold constant or even go up a little against better teams. Not sure if this is anything significant but definitely something to take into account when evaluating him.

[Mr. Body]

There's been a lot of debate on here about Dillingham and Sheppard's measurements - I've seen a huge range of speculation from 5'11" to 6'3". Whether or not this matters (and I guess we'll see for sure at the combine), Dillingham measured 6' 0.75" barefoot with a 6'5" wingspan at the OTE combine last year, so I think his current measurements will be something similar. Sheppard looks about the same size or slightly bigger, so he'll probably measure similarly.

I've liked Castle's defense this entire tournament and I like that he's bought into the team concept as a role player on a championship team. One thing that is a little bit concerning that hasn't really been mentioned, are his splits against better compe ion. He's done very well this tournament, but if you break down his splits by top 100 teams and then top 50 teams, you see that his numbers drop across the board against better compe ion. BPM, offensive rating, 2pt%, 3pt% all go down while TO% goes up with better compe ion. This is not something that you see for other guard prospects like Sheppard, Dillingham, Devin Carter, or Isaiah Collier whose numbers hold constant or even go up a little against better teams. Not sure if this is anything significant but definitely something to take into account when evaluating him.

Good find.

Castle labors to get into the paint and can do it using spins and strength, but his speed isn't exceptional. That's one concern. He has a good feel for the game, but it isn't necessarily superb. Like, say, Sheppard often seems in the right spot for rebounds and such. Castle's very good, though. His handles are fine, his ability to work in the offense are fine. Nice thing, he doesn't turn the ball over much, but I don't think he's going to carve defenses up.

I think he projects as a defensive stopper who can be a combo/lead with great size and strength who you hope can wall off or snuff out opposing guards. He already does a great job of getting into position, harrying opponents without wasted movements, has a Gary Payton-like ability to almost double team immobile opponents (picked up their dribble) by himself - once they pivot to look the other way, he's already there. He walls up very well on drives. He catches up on drivers when going over screens, he navigates those screens overall well.

However, his steal percentage is only 1.8%. Not that steals are necessarily what you want or need, but some say that figure suggests a higher level processing of the game. His steals and blocks overall are low. Dejounte in college had a 2.8% steal percentage. But then UConn values positional/stable defense rather than freelancing. (Dillingham, widely acknowledged as having all kinds of problems on defense, has a 2.4% steal percentage, very good.)

To me, Castle is a draft prospect for compe iveness, ability to quickly fit into the team, and primarily defense, where we get hosed so badly. He'll be able to get the Spurs' motion offense pretty easily, I'd say. The rest, you have to develop. But that's why I keep going back to him or Rob. Each has possibilities of being elite in one area and then you got to accept the rest as possibility.

[cdcast]

If Spurs get a top 3 pick, what could they get for that in a trade?
A weak draft like this, probably better off just keeping pick.

[BatManu20]

Hope they let this kid in. Much more intrigued by him than these other prospects.

6’8 PG with a lot of upside. Can play on and off-ball, but excels with the ball in his hands. Smooth player who can get to the basket and finish or create for others. Has good length and upside defensively. Would be the youngest player in the draft at 18 years & 3 months old on draft night. Sure-fire lottery pick if they allow him to enter this draft, and very likely a top-10 pick. Think the Spurs would be very interested in him tbh.

[scott]

Hope they let this kid in. Much more intrigued by him than these other prospects.

6’8 PG with a lot of upside. Can play on and off-ball, but excels with the ball in his hands. Smooth player who can get to the basket and finish or create for others. Has good length and upside defensively. Would be the youngest player in the draft at 18 years & 3 months old on draft night. Sure-fire lottery pick if they allow him to enter this draft, and very likely a top-10 pick. Think the Spurs would be very interested in him tbh.

Very interesting, I've seen him in some 2025 Draft rankings as a fringe Top-10 pick. Will be interesting to see if his waiver gets anywhere...

[LeBowen]

The more I think about it, the more I'm convinced that PATFO has some strange pick noone is thinking about lined up yet again.
We'll probably end with 5th best odds for no reason other than them not caring about top picks.

I'd really prefer a forward, but we most likely end up with a point guard. And out of those top4 teams, Wizards are the only team that's looking for a point guard.
But they're also looking for a big and chances are low that they'd take any of these guards over Sarr.

Spurs are more or less guaranteed to draft their prefered guard if they want to.

[Spurs Homer]

Castle getting smoked by that little white boy scrub lol

[Degoat]

I have a feeling Tidjane Salaun is gonna rise rapidly as the draft approaches, especially in a draft like this. Honestly don’t understand how he isn’t higher. If the spurs do want to model building a team like the nuggets, he’s definitely the Aaron Gordon type of mold imo.

[Guru of Nothing]

Bold Prediction: Spurs will draft Ryan Dunn.

And why not? Checks most boxes, except 3 point shot, but the same can be said for every other forward in the draft, right? Everything about this guy screams foundational rotational guy, and *if* he can develop a shot ... to the moon.

Thinking about, my opinion on Dunn hasn't really changed much, but everyone else seems to be falling in my estimation.

[SpursBills]

Based on the Spurs' preferences in the past, I think that they like having a combo guard running the point. With that in mind, I wanted to look at one of my favorite combo guard prospects that hasn't gotten as much here: Devin Carter

The guy is currently mocked in the mid-first so he'd be a reach with either our pick or the conveyed Raptors pick, but he has a lot of indicators suggesting that if only a few things break right, he might be one of the most valuable players to come out of the draft.

Overview
First and foremost, he's probably the second best perimeter defender in the draft after Ryan Dunn. I'd say he probably has the best lateral quickness of anyone in the draft. His numbers support that as well - STL% and BLK% of nearly 3 each are elite numbers for a guard. Additionally, unlike other defense-first upperclassman guards who busted (are busting) out of the league (Davion Mitc , Jevon Carter), he's got the size and athleticism (26 dunks on the year) to back up his defensive instincts. He's a legit 6'3" with a 6'9" wingspan, and is also an elite rebounding guard - his 14 TRB% compares to that of much taller guys like Ryan Dunn and even Filipowski. He's a combo guard with a big wingspan who plays even bigger, which allows him to hold up on switches while his lateral agility potentially allows him to become a weapon against small shifty guards.

Offensively this year, he's taken a leap. Ever since Bryce Hopkins went down for the season in early January, Carter's been by far the #1 option for Providence and has put up some monster statlines against good compe ion. 28/11/6/4/1 against #18 Creighton. 24/15/4/2/2 against #2 UConn. 27/8/3/2/1 against #10 Marquette. This is with getting consistently double-teamed as the primary offensive option while still putting up elite defensive numbers. Since Hopkins went down after the new year he's been averaging 22/9/4 on good efficiency.

Shot Diet - Rim pressure and 3s
The biggest question for Carter, like most other defensive guard prospects, is his 3 point shooting. As a bigger defensive guard with high rebounding numbers and elite DAWG/48, my comps for him include Kris Dunn, GP II, and Josh Hart. Dunn and GP II had a lower shooting signal with lower FT%, lower 3pt volume, and lower 3 pt%. It is unsurprising that their outside shooting never came around, although they have found pro success by utilizing their defensive prowess, athleticism, and frame. Hart is a more apt comparison, as a league-average streaky shooter with a similar FT% and a slightly higher 3 pt% on lower volume. However, I would argue that the types of 3s that Carter is shooting (pull-ups, deep 3s) are more difficult as the primary option compared to Hart's shot diet and there is more hope for Carter.

With regards to rim pressure, excluding Nikola Topic, Devin Carter has the best combination of rim attempts and rim finishing (65%) of any of the guard prospects in the draft. By far his biggest weakness is in the midrange, but if you look at his shot diet, it's essentially a modern NBA shot diet with the vast majority of attempts being rim attempts and 3s.

Fit for the Spurs
Interestingly, Carter's combination of frame, defensive versatility, all around goodness, and unfortunate hairline gives him an upside comp very near and dear to most Spurs fans:

https://www.tankathon.com/players/co...-derrick-white

Just like Derrick developed his defense to become one of the best guard defenders in the NBA in spite of an anemic college steal rate, Carter would have to develop his playmaking chops and continue the development of his outside shot to get to where White is today. This is not impossible - Carter's shown the ability to make advanced PNR reads and hit tight windows with his passing. His shooting has improved year over year. He has an NBA dad who undoubtedly showed him how much work it takes to make it in the league and he by all accounts has a great work ethic. However, if those things do develop appropriately, you're looking at what is probably the ideal point guard next to Wemby, a switchable guard who gives you a POA defender on fast guards to pair with Sochan's ability to defend bigger forwards and who doesn't die on screens or get hunted in mismatches, as well as a guy who can take a portion of the playmaking demands while providing spot of shooting and rim pressure in doses.

Draft Projection
I think he's going to be drafted late and outperform his draft projection. As far as upperclassmen go, I'd rather have Carter than Knecht for sure but they're completely different types of players. I basically put Carter, Sheppard, Castle, and McCain in the same category as combo guards with varying levels of defensive versatility and shooting. With regards to fit on the Spurs, I probably still put Sheppard first due to his jumper and defensive playmaking. However, I suspect that even though Carter's going to be the last one of the 4 drafted, he won't be the worst pro of the 4. Doesn't make sense to draft him with the Spurs natural pick, but if a trade-down opportunity is there I'd look very hard into drafting him as a 22 year old ready-made defender who doesn't need nearly as much developmental resources as a teenager but still with significant upside potential.

[BackHome]

Excellent write up - I like the kid a lot as you can see his game against UConn where he had 24pts to go with 15 rebounds is pretty crazy only to be followed up with 27pts and 8 rebounds a week latter for his last game against Marquette in March madness

[Gandalf]

Why don’t people here want Topic? I’m no expert and have only watched a few videos; he may not be Doncic, but he looks pretty good from what I’ve seen, and his three point shot might improve (he’s good at the charity stripe and from two-point range).

[KobesAchilles]

Why don’t people here want Topic? I’m no expert and have only watched a few videos; he may not be Doncic, but he looks pretty good from what I’ve seen, and his three point shot might improve (he’s good at the charity stripe and from two-point range).

Bc we have no shooting on our team and drafting a PG who can’t shoot is extremely idiotic. Same thought process of choosing Rubio over Curry. Guards who can’t shoot are .

[Gandalf]

Bc we have no shooting on our team and drafting a PG who can’t shoot is extremely idiotic. Same thought process of choosing Rubio over Curry. Guards who can’t shoot are .

Makes sense, assuming that’s accurate - tankathon seems to think he’s a great two-point shooter though. I think I read he’s close to 88-90% on free throws also. Didn’t Doncic struggle with threes when he first came over? https://www.tankathon.com/players/nikola-topic

[alfahdlan]

Methinks, PATFO will choose combo guard this draft for the first pick since Wemby can pretty much do 3 and 4 when needed. 1 and 2 combo will give Devin needed rest and Wemby the ball where he is most effective. Next pick will cater to SF, I supposed. At the moment we are competing against hornets for the top guard prospect. Sheppard will be ideal with Lamelo. If Hornets gets top 3, one guard will be out in the conversation.

[TD 21]

Draft Projection
I think he's going to be drafted late and outperform his draft projection. As far as upperclassmen go, I'd rather have Carter than Knecht for sure but they're completely different types of players. I basically put Carter, Sheppard, Castle, and McCain in the same category as combo guards with varying levels of defensive versatility and shooting. With regards to fit on the Spurs, I probably still put Sheppard first due to his jumper and defensive playmaking. However, I suspect that even though Carter's going to be the last one of the 4 drafted, he won't be the worst pro of the 4. Doesn't make sense to draft him with the Spurs natural pick, but if a trade-down opportunity is there I'd look very hard into drafting him as a 22 year old ready-made defender who doesn't need nearly as much developmental resources as a teenager but still with significant upside potential.

The thing with all of them is they're better off on a team where the primary initiator is a big guard or wing.

Not to get too far off topic, but without an obvious order or tier near the top and given the unique situation here, the pick might be intertwined with whatever they do or plan to at lead guard.

If it's one of the oft discussed names, in Murray's case, Sheppard and McCain (trade down) would make sense. In Young's, Mitc 's or Garland's case, Castle or Carter (trade down) would.

[Bruno]

Something strange about Topic is how much better his former team has been without him.

Adriatic regular season is over:
- First half of the season with Topic: 6W - 7L
- Second half of the season without Topic: 10W - 3L

I'm not sure why are the reasons behind that but it's noteworthy.

[JPB]

Something strange about Topic is how much better his former team has been without him.

Adriatic regular season is over:
- First half of the season with Topic: 6W - 7L
- Second half of the season without Topic: 10W - 3L

I'm not sure why are the reasons behind that but it's noteworthy.

As you know, that team is owned by his agent and he's using it to showcase his best prospects. Featuring his potential cash cows matters more than winning to him, I suppose they got better team chemistry and balance (and defense and shooting) when they started to play team ball insread of having a PG focused on showcasing himself, driving after drive.

But you're right, that, plus his two bad euroleague performances, plus that injury stuff is something to consider. For comparison, Risacher's team isn't build around and just to showcase him, he's playing team/winning ball there, not stat padding, and pretty succesfully since they're in the Eurocup finals and 4th in the (more compe ive) french league (20-8).

I (brilliantly and majestically) predicted Topic would drop in the mock drafts, and he already did a little, going from potential #1 and surefire top 3, to top 5 now and maybe top 10 at the end.

[exstatic]

Bold Prediction: Spurs will draft Ryan Dunn.

And why not? Checks most boxes, except 3 point shot, but the same can be said for every other forward in the draft, right? Everything about this guy screams foundational rotational guy, and *if* he can develop a shot ... to the moon.

Thinking about, my opinion on Dunn hasn't really changed much, but everyone else seems to be falling in my estimation.

My opinion of Dunn hadn’t changed, but it’s still mid first round,

[Pauleta14]

Something strange about Topic is how much better his former team has been without him.

Adriatic regular season is over:
- First half of the season with Topic: 6W - 7L
- Second half of the season without Topic: 10W - 3L

I'm not sure why are the reasons behind that but it's noteworthy.

It could just be that a team gets better as the season goes but interesting...

Is his owner/agent pushing for a new gem at Mega?

[Splits]

Hope they let this kid in. Much more intrigued by him than these other prospects.

6’8 PG with a lot of upside. Can play on and off-ball, but excels with the ball in his hands. Smooth player who can get to the basket and finish or create for others. Has good length and upside defensively. Would be the youngest player in the draft at 18 years & 3 months old on draft night. Sure-fire lottery pick if they allow him to enter this draft, and very likely a top-10 pick. Think the Spurs would be very interested in him tbh.

I want him just for his name. And with Wemby on the team instead of pronouncing Pate like "hate" it would be "Pâté" as in the French dish where they make raw ground beef like tuna fish