Reply With Quote
Risacher was not as bad as his stats in that game. I would say he was quite unlucky.
I’m pretty sure that list isn’t his mock. It’s the results from his statistical model. His mock is ordered differently.
Risacher was not as bad as his stats in that game. I would say he was quite unlucky.
Correct. It's for better or worse a analytical look at ranking prospects.
The model has tons of misses. But sometimes the data sniffs out a hidden gem so it's worth looking at. It nailed Kessler at like #6 when everyone was sleeping on him. From reddit:
From recent classes, it hit on Sengun, Haliburton and Podz from last year. It also was down on Scoot, Wiseman, didn't think the top of the 2021 draft was going to be as good as it was billed to be, etc. For a #1 pick, the stats based model would suggest Sarr is just above the median #1 pick.
The most famous hit is it had Jokic as a top 5 pick in the 2014 draft and was really down on Wiggins.
One big negative is it missed on Anthony Edwards.
Rob Dillingham was probably the most electric and fun player to watch in all of college basketball this year. He could single-handedly take over games when he was on a heater, hitting shots from basically anywhere. I wanted to see how this could translate into his draft prospects and potential for pro success in the future.
What is Rob Dillingham?
I know what he is stylistically - elite shiftiness, 3s off the dribble, tough finishes contorting his body around the rim, fearless. Fundamentally piss-poor defense. I think this much has been discussed and virtually everyone's in agreement there. Let's dive into the numbers:
6'0.75" without shoes, 6'5" wingspan
Elite offensive BPM (5.5), terrible defensive BPM (0)
Shooting - 44% from 3 on good volume, 80% from the line; 55% at the rim, 43% on midrange, 4 dunks
30% AST% vs 15% TO%
His numbers paint a picture that for the most part matches the eye test; small guard who's a high level creator using 3 level shotmaking to generate offense but is limited with his rim pressure most likely due to his lack of size and explosive athleticism around the basket. Huge defensive liability.
Comps
At the beginning of the year, popular comps for Dilly were Tyrese Maxey and De'aaron Fox. His numbers don't really suggest these as accurate comps. Both these guys had far more craft/speed around the rim (65% on similar volume for Maxey, 65% on double the volume for Fox) with significantly better defense (dBPM 1.5 for Maxey, 3.3 for Fox). Meanwhile, Dillly has a far more developed 3 than either of these guys.
In order to try and find reasonable comps for Dilly, I tried to screen Bart Jorvik for the last 12 years of college prospects for freshmen who had high level offense, high level creation, and terrible defense. oBPM > 4, dBPM < 1, AST% > 20. It generated a list of 10 guys besides Dillingham, 7 of whom were in the NBA
These 7 + Dilly, ranked by BPM
1. Trae Young
2. Jerryd Bayless
3. Collin Sexton
4. Dennis Smith Jr.
5. Dilly
6. Keyonte George
7. Brandon Knight
8. Johnny Flynn
If you take away the AST% and only look at Kentucky guards you get 3 guys with great offense and crappy defense in college:
1. Jamal Murray
2. Dilly
3. Brandon Knight
What does this tell us?
1) That there is a pretty good probability that Dillingham is at least a decent NBA player in some capacity. Statistically, he is probably closest to a combination of Brandon Knight and Collin Sexton. Knight did not have as much creation upside, while Sexton had a more aggressive game going to the rim with a higher FT rate but whose shot was not nearly as wet. As 3 pointers are valued so much more in the modern game, Dillingham's advanced shooting will probably give him outs to be better than either of these guys in the future.
2) His defense is doomed to be pretty bad as given his frame and lack of defensive success for most of the above list, he will probably follow a similar path
3) He has a ways to go before reaching the high end outcomes on the above lists. You are hoping for a Jamal Murray as an elite shotmaking second banana to pair with a generational big, but Murray bests him in shooting (hoisted twice as many 3s at slightly lower percentage), elite rim finishing, and overall BPM (8.9 vs 5.5). Trae Young is probably the absolute top of his range of outcomes but Young also posted an absurd 48% AST% which was indicative of his incredible (vs very good) vision and hoisted triple the number of 3s with an overall BPM of 10 and even a slightly higher defensive BPM.
Conclusions
Robwitdashifts is one of the more polarizing prospects in the draft. His prior comps suggest that he'll most likely succeed as a very good player in the league albeit with significant defensive limitations. This is not bad considering the relative weakness of this draft. Looking at his comps, he's probably around 8-15 in most drafts however in this draft he's probably worth a top 5-10 pick. His archetype doesn't necessarily fit what I look for in team building but I can't deny that his numbers support future success in spite of his small frame.
Read the reddit thread. Tons of discussion about how the data is compiled and hits and misses the data has produced.
The data had Jokic top 5 when he went in the 2nd lol he ended up being a Finals MVP obvs an extreme case but it's a chance to let data see the draft landscape a bit differently and maybe key in on a more true impact player
6-4 in their last ten games and the Spurs are now the 5th worst record. Tanking this season and getting only the 5th pick. Brilliant
Were really not good what players on this team right now would be starting on a good playoff team besides Wemby?
He's flying under the radar right now, but believe me, Nikola Topic is the most talented player in this draft!
Nikola Topic :
physical: Tall, average athletic qualities
Qualities: very young, very good finish in the circle, very good reading, very good handle, very good
passer, good collective defender thanks to his IQ and his wingspan, very strong left hand, good
mentality (work, rigor, modesty), leader
Flaws: defender limited in 1v1, due to average physical quality, shooting in construction
His mastery of fundamentals and his body makes him elite at finishing and passing. Some of his qualities are reminiscent of Luka Doncic: very good at finishing thanks to a great mastery of fundamentals and his body. His changes of pace are remarkable
Can't finish in transition, dribbling on the hip, some nice cuts, good defense (not the flashy like), don't like his mindset: soft, calm, always with the look of a man who suffers. He is the son of Bruce Bowen and Winnie the Pooh. I always preferred Salaün, less talent, but a little French flair (for better and for worse).
After March Madness, I'm doubling down on my opinion the Spurs should trade their pick(s). If they can trade some seconds to get into the late first to take Edey I'd do it, otherwise just focus on bringing in a few vets that can play with the current roster.
realistically, denver, boston and minnesota have complete starting lineups, but the rest have plenty of holes
Of course, knowing that this board is 100% impervious to any kind of conspiracy theories, I wouldn't even dare to mention, that Risacher would really really really hate it, if the Pistons, Wizards or Hornets drafted him……
(While he would really really really love it, if the Spurs get the chance to pick him)
I'm still high on this kid. His lack of defense is understated though. It's really bad. Which is weird since he is so quick and shifty. I can see him improving there through coaching, but nothing remarkable. I have faith he can develop a shot as well. You can tell by his advanced drive skills, he just never really had to rely on it any. He's high IQ and hard working. Those guys tend to grow quite a bit their first couple years with real coaching and training. I think anyone that gets him will make it out of this below average draft alright.He's flying under the radar right now, but believe me, Nikola Topic is the most talented player in this draft!
Nikola Topic :
physical: Tall, average athletic qualities
Qualities: very young, very good finish in the circle, very good reading, very good handle, very good
passer, good collective defender thanks to his IQ and his wingspan, very strong left hand, good
mentality (work, rigor, modesty), leader
Flaws: defender limited in 1v1, due to average physical quality, shooting in construction
His mastery of fundamentals and his body makes him elite at finishing and passing. Some of his qualities are reminiscent of Luka Doncic: very good at finishing thanks to a great mastery of fundamentals and his body. His changes of pace are remarkable
Is he still top on your personal board?
I still have Topic pretty high on my draft board. He's no longer #1 (I don't know who is at this point, this draft is a mess), but he's still in the first group. Offensively, what we know is that the intersection between height, youth, and passing generally leads to a good player. Topic is still the youngest player in the draft (a year younger than Sheppard and Collier), he has demonstrated the ability to playmake at a high level in the PNR, and he's taller than average for a PG. Your bets on him offensively are that a) his rim pressure translates and b) his shot comes around. I personally think the rim pressure probably translates given his size and craft, but the shot is a bigger question. His FT% is good but his 3pt volume is middling and his 3pt % is terrible, but it's not uncommon for bad shooters with good touch at 18 to become decent shooters at 22.
The defense I'm concerned about. Upright stance, blown up on screens, poor effort constantly on tape. Bad steal rate, bad rebounding rate for his size indicating possibly poor motor. How much does size and wingspan make up for it? Malaki Branham has a 6'10" wingspan and continues to be one of the worst defenders in the NBA.
Overall, I think if his shooting doesn't come around, a different version of Josh Giddey is a reasonable expectation. Topic is shorter and probably worse at passing but his rim pressure and scoring instincts are probably better. Giddey's actually been much better recently and has actually had a reasonable year numbers wise especially after his early season slump, but I don't know if he's necessarily a contending piece. Is Josh Giddey worse for the Wemby spurs than say a Collin Sexton, which might be Dilly's median outcome? Or a late-career Mike Conley like I've seen for Sheppard? I'm not so sure.
Why are you complaining about having worse odds at a top pick in what is thought to be one of the worst drafts of all time?
I'm not a believer in conspiracy theories, but if I thought Risacher is purposefully hurting his draft stock by playing below his capabilities, that would mean he's willing to hurt his team and teammates for personal gain, which would speak of his character and not in a nice way. What would stop him from going full on "fat suit James Harden" on you if he doesn't like his role or his playing time? As Brian Wright once said, "one thing we do not gamble on, is character". So for Risacher's sake, I hope the Spurs FO doesn't believe that (like I don't),
The poor play of Risacher over the past couple of month doesn't really change my view on him. I think he sucks mostly because he is tired both mentally and physically and not because he isn't a that good prospect. He has shown enough in the first half of the season to deserve that interpretation of his sucking.
Right now, I have 3 players on top of my board for Spurs pick: Risacher, Buzelis and Cody Williams.
If Spurs get Raptors pick, there are 3 options I like:
- Draft a second player among Risacher, Buzelis and Williams.
- Draft a PG who is a good defender: Stephon Castle or Devin Carter.
- Draft Topic, Dillingham or even Collier with the idea to use him later as a trade asset.
To add at that, his family already said they don't care about being the first pick, they want to be drafted by the right team.
He obviously isn't playing bad on purpose but I can definitively see him tanking his draft stock in June (by not working out with teams, for example) to be drafted by a specific team.
That's a completely different story, it's the player's prerogative to decide who he works out for or shares his medicals with, and it wouldn't surprise me one bit if he does this nor would I think ill of him if he did.
I still have Zach at the top, he moves like an NBA player. Him and Sochan just moves around the court with speed. I think it is just rawness not iness that we are seeing with him. Same with Cody, instead of raw tools it is strength with him, thin physical players are able to translate with NBA training and physical maturity. Hitting on a low end young two way wing is a win in this draft. These guys should go top 2 on SAS board.
Because having a better draft pick is better than having a worse? Some people are plain stupid.
I'm incredibly curious to see whether the Spurs would go for Dillingham, who has scads of talent. ESPN/NBA have been running spots with top picks declaring for the draft. What was odd with his is that Malika Andrews asked him pointedly what it would be like to play with Wembanyama. I haven't watched the others (like Sarr), but it was a crazy question. I'm also seeing more YT mocks that have the Spurs picking him.
To me, as I've said before, the question is whether the defense is really that bad. Of all the general top prospects, he's one I think has the highest likelihood of being at least a good NBA player. In fact, I think some observers underrate him. For example, Jared McCain is rightfully getting more attention overall right now. He was a great shooter at .414 from deep. But Dillingham shot .444. It's like people overlook how good he was from deep, and not just spot-ups. Or, they claim he's not a good passer or playmaker, when he averaged more assists per 36 than any first round college prospect other than Tyler Kolek. More than Reed Sheppard or Collier.
Defense:
To me, he's improvable. I think he got better as the year went on. He has the quickness to stay in front of players, but clearly doesn't know how to employ it the best he can. He made absolutely awful rotations and choices throughout the year, but these got better. He helped off from Gohlke in the last game, which was atrocious. But I see these are coaching and learning.
He doesn't have those foundations, not from Donda or Overtime Elite. What I did see was desire to become a better defender. He was taking things seriously, calling switches and communicating, even if the results weren't always there. In short (as short as he is), I think some of the awfulness can be mitigated by teaching what to do. Unfortunately, some of it is high school level stuff. But I see buy-in and I see want-to. With his quickness, I can see closer to a neutral guard on that end. He will not be a defensive stopper, obviously, but I believe in his defense more than I do some others.
Ultimately:
He's a different player and not at the same level, of course, but teams are overthinking this one the same way they did Stephen Curry. It's going to become quickly obvious how good he is in this draft.
I agree that it's completely different. BTW, with the new CBA, medical records are now collected by the NBA and shared among teams that could draft this player.
If we end up with the TOR pick, and we use both picks, I think I actually quite like this option. Double down here with guys (specifically Risacher and Buzelis) who can play the 3 or 4. Despite our glaring need at PG, I don't love any of the PG options here and I don't particularly want to wait several years for a drafted PG to develop. I think a young wing has a much faster developmental path and can start contributing as a starter, whereas any PG we draft might need to take more of a Dejounte Murray-like developmental path.
If you end up with Risacher and Buzelis, sign someone like Gordon Hayward, then also a sign a Malik Monk or Grayson Allen - now you can use your draft capital to go out and try to trade for any PG who might be available (whether a star-caliber one, or just a high-end starter).
Your team could very quickly look something like:
PG TBD/Tre
Vassell/Monk
Risacher/Hayward
Sochan/Buzelis
Wemby/Collins
I didn't include him in the lineup above... but you still have Keldon in this scenario to either be part of the rotation or to use to facilitate the trade for a PG. Accomplishing this makes your team a lot better immediately but also looks a lot better going into the future, and you've not disrupted the young core you've been building around (I assume that PAFTO likes what they've seen from and are committed to Vassell and Sochan).
There are currently 2 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 2 guests)
Posting Permissions
