2024 NBA Draft Thread

[scott]

100% wrong. They flip a coin to determine pre lottery order. That’s it. There is no adding and dividing. One team gets the ball combinations for 4, and one team gets the ball combinations for 5. Then the lottery happens.

The coin flip determines the order in respect to the range of picks you can end up with, but the actual lottery balls (which determine picks 1-4) are indeed split amongst tied teams. The team that wins the coin flip also gets the remaining odd ping pong ball after they are split. This is noted by Tankathon at the bottom of this page: https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

How this plays out practically if teams were, for example, tied for 3rd and 4th, which is the case for Portland and Charlotte. The odds for a top 4/top 1 pick get split evenly (save for the extra ping pong ball), regardless of what happens during the coin flip. The winner of the coin flip will get the "3 seed" gets the extra ping pong ball and can drop no lower than the 7th pick. The loser of the flip gets the "4th seed" and can drop to 8th. However, for the lottery drawing, their odds are split.

This happened in 2021, when OKC and CLE entered the lottery both with a 22-60 record. OKC won the coin flip, but as you can see from the post coin flip press release from the NBA, both OKC and CLE entered the lottery with identical odds at winning it: https://www.nba.com/news/ties-broken...2021-nba-draft. You'll also note that despite Chicago winning the 3-way coin flip, Chicago, Sacramento and New Orleans all entered the lottery with the same 4.5% odds of winning - because the odds were split between the three tied teams.

So, it is in fact you who is 100% wrong (shocking, I know). buttsR4rebounding is correct.

[TVI]

100% wrong. They flip a coin to determine pre lottery order. That’s it. There is no adding and dividing. One team gets the ball combinations for 4, and one team gets the ball combinations for 5. Then the lottery happens.

I don’t think that’s right:

In the event that teams finish with the same record, each tied team receives the average of the total number of combinations for the positions that they occupy. Should the average number not be an integer, a coin flip is then used to determine which team or teams receive the extra combination. The result of the coin flip is also used to determine who receives the earlier pick in the event that neither of the tied teams wins one of the first four picks via the lottery. For example, in 2020, the New Orleans Pelicans and the Sacramento Kings tied for the 12th-worst record (due to the COVID-19suspension of the 2019–20 NBA season, only the record as of March 12, 2020 was considered for lottery purposes). The average of the 12th and 13th positions in the lottery was taken, resulting in each team getting 12 combinations (the average of 15 and 10). A coin flip was used to break the tie for the lottery position and assign the extra lottery combination. Sacramento won, giving them the 12th-best lottery odds and New Orleans 13th best. They received the 12th and 13th picks, respectively, after neither was drawn in the lottery. The order was reversed in the second round as New Orleans received the 42nd pick and Sacramento the 43rd.

[scott]

exstatic stating wrong information with total confidence is a tradition as old as this website.

[buttsR4rebounding]

100% wrong. They flip a coin to determine pre lottery order. That’s it. There is no adding and dividing. One team gets the ball combinations for 4, and one team gets the ball combinations for 5. Then the lottery happens.

Don’t you get tired of being wrong?

[MultiTroll]

Could anyone explain why in the Charlotte would choose to win today?
Trailed by 8 entering the 4th qtr.

Moved from for sure 3rd spot to tiebreaker and most likely (or is if for sure) 4th place.

[exstatic]

Don’t you get tired of being wrong?

I’m not wrong on this. Look in the mirror for wrong. All ties are broken by coin flips, pre lottery, and there is one team in each slot, 1-14, with the odds for that slot in the lottery.

[duncan2150]

Now that the season is over

https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

so it's close to 0 that we'll not have the pick 5 lol, same with pick 9

42% to have a pick between 1-4 and picks 6-7 are the more likely outcome with like 46 %.

[Ariel]

Could anyone explain why in the Charlotte would choose to win today?
Trailed by 8 entering the 4th qtr.

Moved from for sure 3rd spot to tiebreaker and most likely (or is if for sure) 4th place.

By winning, Charlotte lost 1.8% chance at a top 4 spot. The Spurs lost 5.4% chance at a top 4 spot by winning, so it's not Charlotte who screwed up the worse today.

[exstatic]

Could anyone explain why in the Charlotte would choose to win today?
Trailed by 8 entering the 4th qtr.

Moved from for sure 3rd spot to tiebreaker and most likely (or is if for sure) 4th place.

Since there’s no generational player, or even a clear #1, they probably didn’t care about dropping into a coin flip tie breaker. The odds for 3 and 4 are not monumentally different.

[Ariel]

I’m not wrong on this. Look in the mirror for wrong. All ties are broken by coin flips, pre lottery, and there is one team in each slot, 1-14, with the odds for that slot in the lottery.

All ties are broken but only come into play if the teams fall outside of the top 4, so that the team who won the tiebreaker gets the better pick. For the lottery spots (1-4) odds are split between tied teams.

[MultiTroll]

Since there’s no generational player, or even a clear #1, they probably didn’t care about dropping into a coin flip tie breaker. The odds for 3 and 4 are not monumentally different.

Sheesh.
You'd think out of the entire planet a top 3 or 4 pick would contribute well and be worth simply tanking one final 4th qtr for.
Where you teams already down 8 entering that 4th qtr.

[duncan2150]

By winning, Charlotte lost 1.8% chance at a top 4 spot. The Spurs lost 5.4% chance at a top 4 spot by winning, so it's not Charlotte who screwed up the worse today.

spurs played their g league team but that detroit team is so bad. Im not mad at that especially with this draft.

[exstatic]

By winning, Charlotte lost 1.8% chance at a top 4 spot. The Spurs lost 5.4% chance at a top 4 spot by winning, so it's not Charlotte who screwed up the worse today.

I think the Spurs kept their foot on the brakes until they were sure they could keep TOR out of the top 5 pick odds. Then they went on a little heater, probably for team and fan morale. It wasn’t just today. And, I mean, we were running lineups with Mamu, Sidy who spent most of the year in Austin, and our 3 2ways. Detroit was just determined to lose to those players. I’d laugh my ass off if they fall to #5 again, and it’s not out of the question. They have 22X the odds to pick at #5 (47.8%) than we have of picking at #5 (2,2%).

[Ariel]

spurs played their g league team but that detroit team is so bad. Im not mad at that especially with this draft.

Spurs didn't lose their spot today, they lost it against Denver, New Orleans, New York, Phoenix, etc. In situations like these they're nowhere near shameless enough (think Dallas last year, or Portland EVERY year), so they never should have allowed it to come down to the wire.

[exstatic]

Sheesh.
You'd think out of the entire planet a top 3 or 4 pick would contribute well and be worth simply tanking one final 4th qtr for.
Where you teams already down 8 entering that 4th qtr.

Once again, where you are now is not where you’re picking, necessarily. It’s your pre lottery position, with the pick odds that go with it. Charlotte could pick first or as low as 7th if they win the flip, or 8th if they lose the flip.

[exstatic]

Spurs didn't lose their spot today, they lost it against Denver, New Orleans, New York, Phoenix, etc. In situations like these they're nowhere near shameless enough (think Dallas last year, or Portland EVERY year), so they never should have allowed it to come down to the wire.

I don’t think, in this draft, that they cared as much where they finished, as long as it was ahead of TOR, and that TOR wasn’t in the top 5. This draft is so variable that we could drop to 6 or7, and still get the top player on the Spurs draft board. We could also win the lottery.

[MultiTroll]

Once again, where you are now is not where you’re picking, necessarily. It’s your pre lottery position, with the pick odds that go with it. Charlotte could pick first or as low as 7th if they win the flip, or 8th if they lose the flip.

Understood.
But even then, why not take +1.8% when you can? What did Charlotte accomplish with the 4th qtr win today?

Hope it wasn't some funky gambling thing. NBA so obviously has a problem with that.

As for the Spurs, it's long since not been about winning.
The #1 objective is doing what Pop wants and new ownership only cares about making money.

[buttsR4rebounding]

I’m not wrong on this. Look in the mirror for wrong. All ties are broken by coin flips, pre lottery, and there is one team in each slot, 1-14, with the odds for that slot in the lottery.

I have $100 that says you are wrong.

[MultiTroll]

Spurs didn't lose their spot today, they lost it against Denver, New Orleans, New York, Phoenix, etc. In situations like these they're nowhere near shameless enough (think Dallas last year, or Portland EVERY year), so they never should have allowed it to come down to the wire.

Ariel

[baseline bum]

Spurs didn't lose their spot today, they lost it against Denver, New Orleans, New York, Phoenix, etc. In situations like these they're nowhere near shameless enough (think Dallas last year, or Portland EVERY year), so they never should have allowed it to come down to the wire.

I'll take Wemby's 40/20 and the win over NY in a game we'll still remember 20 years from now over a couple of extra lotto balls. Same for the win over Denver with Wemby going for 17 points in 3 minutes. If this was the Cooper Flagg draft or the AJ Dybantsa draft maybe you could convince me otherwise but not in the Risacher draft when Risacher has been playing like a scrub for a month.

[rascal]

I don’t think, in this draft, that they cared as much where they finished, as long as it was ahead of TOR, and that TOR wasn’t in the top 5. This draft is so variable that we could drop to 6 or7, and still get the top player on the Spurs draft board. We could also win the lottery.

Portland sure did care. They started all their deep bench players today.

[duncan2150]

Spurs didn't lose their spot today, they lost it against Denver, New Orleans, New York, Phoenix, etc. In situations like these they're nowhere near shameless enough (think Dallas last year, or Portland EVERY year), so they never should have allowed it to come down to the wire.

But today count ? they played all their last games without sochan, vassell, then osman, keldon... It's not their fault if the others teams are bad during this stretch.

[Ariel]

I'll take Wemby's 40/20 and the win over NY in a game we'll still remember 20 years from now over a couple of extra lotto balls. Same for the win over Denver with Wemby going for 17 points in 3 minutes. If this was the Cooper Flagg draft or the AJ Dybantsa draft maybe you could convince me otherwise but not in the Risacher draft when Risacher has been playing like a scrub for a month.

Well... here's to hoping you don't have to change your mind next season.

[scott]

I’m not wrong on this. Look in the mirror for wrong. All ties are broken by coin flips, pre lottery, and there is one team in each slot, 1-14, with the odds for that slot in the lottery.

lol, doubling down on being wrong, even in the face of evidence

[scott]

Since everyone is comparing Edey to Boban...

Edey can only hope to become half the legend that Boban is