Reed Sheppard - 2024 NBA Draft Prospect

[rankingtear]

Reed overdid it with the standing reach. Teams would remeasure it on workouts. It generated a lot of buzz and served its purpose. Players game the combine all the time, Trae came in at 177lbs when his playing weight is 164. A lot of prospects have questionable standing reach like Carter and Carrington. It is more crucial for centers and maybe forwards.

[DAF86]

The most underrated aspect of Sheppard's game is his outlet passing. Just as sure a bet to translate to the NBA game as his three point shooting, and it would be a perfect fit with Wemby's maniac floor running as a bigman, tbh.

[DAF86]

That wasn't the issue, 38" vertical would have been perfect, the thing that I pointed out is that this guy seems obsessed with maximizing individual stats to make himself look better, when they have no influence whatsoever on the actual game. So it kind of made me wonder if there's a pattern there.

Where did you get this from? Is there a quote, an article or anything that indicates that? Even if he did, it doesn't take away from the "impresiveness" of his numbers. I mean, even if he was super picky with his shot selection, he still shot fifty ing two percent from the 3 pt line on good volume.

Also, your claim that his stats "have no influence whatsoever on the actual games" is simply a flat out lie, given that he posted historic impact metrics.

Regarding the vertical leap, folks training and doing special things specifically for the combine isn't anything new. It happens in the NBA and in the NFL constantly. The quote you posted about the "trick arm" is something that pretty much every player does. Neither Reed nor that Ryan guy from "Proactive" invented anything, tbh.

[SouthernFryd]

I don't see it, he's a lesser Doug McDermott. 10-15 win improvement from one player would require getting someone like Cooper Flagg in 25 or AJ Dybantsa in 26.

Or a Wemby? Didn't happen. Why?



No, Half of the 10-15 game improvement comes from getting rid of Champagnie...the worst starting player in the NBA. The other half comes from Knecht. And I look at him as a McDermott as well...with a lot more offensive driving ability.

[R. DeMurre]

That wasn't the issue, 38" vertical would have been perfect, the thing that I pointed out is that this guy seems obsessed with maximizing individual stats to make himself look better, when they have no influence whatsoever on the actual game. So it kind of made me wonder if there's a pattern there.

I guess I just don't see a guy "obsessed" with maximizing individual stats at all. I see a team player with an 18% usage rate and lots of assists, and so when he passes up, say, a three point shot where he's closely guarded, I think he's just playing smart... do you think he's avoiding tougher shots because he's consciously thinking about his percentages and putting those percentage concerns ahead of the desire to win? That would be an fascinating psychological observation, if true... but I'm not seeing it. Do you think there are guys in the NBA now that do this?

[Dejounte]

News at 9: compe ive basketball player seeking advice on how to reach best possible outcome

somehow this is spun as a player “too focused on counting stats”

when it could very well a sign of a player who pays attention to details and executes it to near perfection. It’s no wonder he’s a good shooter, the way his brain is wired he probably counts in his head the milliseconds it requires to release the ball from his hands when he shoots.

When MJ played coin toss with that security guard, what do people think was going on in his head to try to beat the guard? Do people think he was relying on luck? Or that his compe iveness was trying to calculate the ways he could toss the coin in order to win?

this is way overblown that I can’t believe we are talking about this at this level of scrutiny

[rascal]

News at 9: compe ive basketball player seeking advice on how to reach best possible outcome

somehow this is spun as a player “too focused on counting stats”

when it could very well a sign of a player who pays attention to details and executes it to near perfection. It’s no wonder he’s a good shooter, the way his brain is wired he probably counts in his head the milliseconds it requires to release the ball from his hands when he shoots.

When MJ played coin toss with that security guard, what do people think was going on in his head to try to beat the guard? Do people think he was relying on luck? Or that his compe iveness was trying to calculate the ways he could toss the coin in order to win?

this is way overblown that I can’t believe we are talking about this at this level of scrutiny

It also shows a player who doesn't believe in his own TRUE merits and abilities to be a top draft pick without trying to scam the system.

[Dejounte]

It also shows a player who doesn't believe in his own TRUE merits and abilities to be a top draft pick without trying to scam the system.

Jumping in game and jumping to get the highest possible vert are two different things

players jump only as far as they need to in a game

you put a measuring stick in front of them, they’re all going to compete for the highest because that’s what people do. I remember those days competing to get the highest possible jump in high school. This isn’t rocket science.

[rascal]

Jumping in game and jumping to get the highest possible vert are two different things

players jump only as far as they need to in a game

you put a measuring stick in front of them, they’re all going to compete for the highest because that’s what people do. I remember those days competing to get the highest possible jump in high school. This isn’t rocket science.

Competing is one thing scamming the results is another. You must be a believer if you’re not cheating you aren’t trying.

[Dejounte]

Competing is one thing scamming the results is another. You must be a believer if you’re not cheating you aren’t trying.

It wasn’t scamming. Not going to entertain this low IQ nonsense further.

[scott]

Weird that preparation is now being viewed as "scamming results".

[jesterbobman]

Like, he definitely cheated the results, but it probably means his standing reach is 3-4 inches higher and his max vert is 3-4 inches lower. Most of the time actual length is more important that maximum jump as you're mostly on the ground when playing basketball, it doesn't really matter.

Reed uses vertical athleticism on the court (Incredibly good block rate for a guard). Not too surprising that it was decent.

[TimmyBuckets]

The more it's looking like Spurs might draft 2 guards if they don't trade the picks or move up. If thats the case, Sheppard and Sheppard and Topic would be nice. Maybe Sheppard and Castle too.

[Knoxxx]

The only issue I see in drafting Sheppard/Dilly/Topic AND Castle is that Castle stated he wants to play PG only. That means we’d be drafting Castle + a wing or other position such as PF/C.

Also throw in that the Spurs allegedly don’t like Topic but are keen on foreign prospects with Risacher and Sarr likely gone, that only leaves Buzelis and Salaun as conceivable overseas prospects.

As far as Sheppard gaming the vertical, I look at max vertical by adding standing + vertical. Anyone who can reach 12 feet is a super athlete. Sheppard with a max vertical of about 11 foot is nothing special, he probably will dunk in a game about as often as TP or Tre Jones. At least he can though. What is elite about Sheppard is his stocks as is being discussed. That means he’s a baller with a high BBIQ.

[scott]

The only issue I see in drafting Sheppard/Dilly/Topic AND Castle is that Castle stated he wants to play PG only. That means we’d be drafting Castle + a wing or other position such as PF/C.

Also throw in that the Spurs allegedly don’t like Topic but are keen on foreign prospects with Risacher and Sarr likely gone, that only leaves Buzelis and Salaun as conceivable overseas prospects.

As far as Sheppard gaming the vertical, I look at max vertical by adding standing + vertical. Anyone who can reach 12 feet is a super athlete. Sheppard with a max vertical of about 11 foot is nothing special, he probably will dunk in a game about as often as TP or Tre Jones. At least he can though. What is elite about Sheppard is his stocks as is being discussed. That means he’s a baller with a high BBIQ.

Had a snarky, joke comment about how Buzelis cut his teeth in overseas leagues no one has every heard of... but am deciding to more maturely point out that Matas was born in Chicago and has spent his entire life in the United States. He played prep school ball in Chicago, New Hampshire and Kansas. He's not an overseas prospect. His parents are Lithuanian, thus his foreign-sounding name, but Matas is as American as apple pie, with a small sliver of tinginys on the side.

[Knoxxx]

Had a snarky, joke comment about how Buzelis cut his teeth in overseas leagues no one has every heard of... but am deciding to more maturely point out that Matas was born in Chicago and has spent his entire life in the United States. He played prep school ball in Chicago, New Hampshire and Kansas. He's not an overseas prospect. His parents are Lithuanian, thus his foreign-sounding name, but Matas is as American as apple pie, with a small sliver of tinginys on the side.

That seems to reinforce my point either way.

[SpursBills]

I think that the fact that Sheppard is being characterized as "low ceiling, high floor" is actually a point in his favor. In general, the number of things that have to go right for high floor players to hit their upside tail is far, far less than the number of things that have to go right for "high ceiling, low floor" guys.

Consider the example of Reed Sheppard vs Ron Holland, to draw an example between 2 opposites

To become an above average starter, Holland has to:
1. Turn a horrendous jumper to a league average jumper
2. Turn a terrible handle into a functional handle
3. Improve his defensive IQ
4. Improve his passing and decision making with the ball
5. Learn to play off-ball
6. Improve defensive fundamentals
7. Improve his functional strength

Basically, Holland has above average athleticism and a high motor in an excellent frame going for him, but he needs to actually learn how to play efficient basketball. And I actually like Holland, don't even get me started on Salaun.

Conversely, to become an above average starter, Sheppard needs
1. To turn a functional handle into a great handle
2. Improve his defensive fundamentals and stop ball watching
3. Improve his functional strength

Nothing's guaranteed to translate, but we can reasonably expect his jumper to be good since he's got good touch based on his shooting metrics, he'd been an 85-90% FT shooter all through HS. His superpower is that he reads the game well and is an elite level decision maker, so the "basketball IQ" will probably translate. He's got great off-ball instincts already and world-class hands. The most common complaint about him is he can't create his own shot against a set defense (completely true), but the primary skill that requires is significant improvements in his handle. If Holland improves everything in his list, he turns into...current Jonathan Kuminga? Early career Jalen Brown? Whereas Reed improving everything on his list turns him into...mid-career Mike Conley?

If you could assign rough percentages to each one of the above skills translating, which list would have a higher probability of occurring? As a very rough exercise just to appreciate how much of an effect a longer list has on the odds of success, let's just say that each one of the above scenarios is a coin-flip to happen. The difference between having 3 and 7 things go right is 13% vs 0.8%. You can play this same game with any of your favorite prospects to see.

Additionally, if someone is being described as "high floor", he already has enough requisite skills to most likely a) be useful in a regular season rotation and b) not get played off the floor in a regular NBA game. Normally when we think of "low ceiling high floor" types, it's used to describe older prospects later in their development - Chris Duarte, Keegan Murray are probably the poster-children for this. But if you use that term to describe freshman/young sop re-aged prospects still early in their development, that's a huge green flag to me, as it gives the a significant runway to develop fewer skills.

The best examples for this are Tyrese Haliburton and Franz Wagner, both of whom shared similar "high floor low ceiling" labels first coming out, both of whom were statistical darlings in college and were solid at most aspects of the game, but lacked "upside" because they couldn't create their own shot, weren't outlier athletes, etc. etc. Both were in relative low usage roles as young sop res (Franz 19 USG, Haliburton 21 USG) with questions of whether their low usage efficiency could translate into a higher usage role in the NBA. A few years later, a couple things hit and they have significant outperformed their draft stock. Reed, in spite of his physical limitations, has similar strengths in that he has a rock-solid statistical profile with a solid foundation of skills in a low-usage role. Basically, being "high floor, low ceiling" at a young age should not be viewed as a negative for Sheppard but rather as a positive.

EDIT:
Just to clarify, I am not saying that Sheppard is going to turn into Haliburton, nor am I saying that he's going to have outlier development. For all we know, he never develops his handle and is stuck as a small shooting guard like Seth curry or Luke Kennard who's a bench role player. All I'm saying is that the term "high floor low ceiling" is not a negative especially when it pertains to young players, and especially when there are no "high floor, high ceiling" players in this draft. Upside tail usually hits from unexpected or outlier development, and it's a better bet to only require that development to occur in a few areas than many.

[Spursfanfromafar]

I think that the fact that Sheppard is being characterized as "low ceiling, high floor" is actually a point in his favor. In general, the number of things that have to go right for high floor players to hit their upside tail is far, far less than the number of things that have to go right for "high ceiling, low floor" guys.

Consider the example of Reed Sheppard vs Ron Holland, to draw an example between 2 opposites

To become an above average starter, Holland has to:
1. Turn a horrendous jumper to a league average jumper
2. Turn a terrible handle into a functional handle
3. Improve his defensive IQ
4. Improve his passing and decision making with the ball
5. Learn to play off-ball
6. Improve defensive fundamentals
7. Improve his functional strength

Basically, Holland has above average athleticism and a high motor in an excellent frame going for him, but he needs to actually learn how to play efficient basketball. And I actually like Holland, don't even get me started on Salaun.

Conversely, to become an above average starter, Sheppard needs
1. To turn a functional handle into a great handle
2. Improve his defensive fundamentals and stop ball watching
3. Improve his functional strength

Nothing's guaranteed to translate, but we can reasonably expect his jumper to be good since he's got good touch based on his shooting metrics, he'd been an 85-90% FT shooter all through HS. His superpower is that he reads the game well and is an elite level decision maker, so the "basketball IQ" will probably translate. He's got great off-ball instincts already and world-class hands. The most common complaint about him is he can't create his own shot against a set defense (completely true), but the primary skill that requires is significant improvements in his handle. If Holland improves everything in his list, he turns into...current Jonathan Kuminga? Early career Jalen Brown? Whereas Reed improving everything on his list turns him into...mid-career Mike Conley?

If you could assign rough percentages to each one of the above skills translating, which list would have a higher probability of occurring? As a very rough exercise just to appreciate how much of an effect a longer list has on the odds of success, let's just say that each one of the above scenarios is a coin-flip to happen. The difference between having 3 and 7 things go right is 13% vs 0.8%. You can play this same game with any of your favorite prospects to see.

Additionally, if someone is being described as "high floor", he already has enough requisite skills to most likely a) be useful in a regular season rotation and b) not get played off the floor in a regular NBA game. Normally when we think of "low ceiling high floor" types, it's used to describe older prospects later in their development - Chris Duarte, Keegan Murray are probably the poster-children for this. But if you use that term to describe freshman/young sop re-aged prospects still early in their development, that's a huge green flag to me, as it gives the a significant runway to develop fewer skills.

The best examples for this are Tyrese Haliburton and Franz Wagner, both of whom shared similar "high floor low ceiling" labels first coming out, both of whom were statistical darlings in college and were solid at most aspects of the game, but lacked "upside" because they couldn't create their own shot, weren't outlier athletes, etc. etc. Both were in relative low usage roles as young sop res (Franz 19 USG, Haliburton 21 USG) with questions of whether their low usage efficiency could translate into a higher usage role in the NBA. A few years later, a couple things hit and they have significant outperformed their draft stock. Reed, in spite of his physical limitations, has similar strengths in that he has a rock-solid statistical profile with a solid foundation of skills in a low-usage role. Basically, being "high floor, low ceiling" at a young age should not be viewed as a negative for Sheppard but rather as a positive.

EDIT:
Just to clarify, I am not saying that Sheppard is going to turn into Haliburton, nor am I saying that he's going to have outlier development. For all we know, he never develops his handle and is stuck as a small shooting guard like Seth curry or Luke Kennard who's a bench role player. All I'm saying is that the term "high floor low ceiling" is not a negative especially when it pertains to young players, and especially when there are no "high floor, high ceiling" players in this draft. Upside tail usually hits from unexpected or outlier development, and it's a better bet to only require that development to occur in a few areas than many.

Very well said. The numbers don't lie. One can't have such high efficiency stats and be good at a number of things and then not improve. There is a high probability of Sheppard being better at handling the ball and learning to run an offense while retaining all his strengths and converting them in the NBA to success.

[buttsR4rebounding]

One of Sheppard’s strengths that I think might be supercharged with Wemby behind him is his steal rate. From 2 perspectives: 1. His incredibly fast hands combined with a green light to sell out for the steal because Wemby is there to cut off penetration should lead to a plethora of swipes. 2. We have all seen how many players won’t challenge Wemby when they are in the lane. This leads to one of 2 types of reactions. The first is turn away from Wemby to dribble out. I believe a player like Sheppard would learn to play that motion for steal attempts. The second is a pass from the paint to the perimeter which also can result in a steal if properly anticipated. Sheppard seems to be a natural for taking advantage of some of the advantages that Wemby creates.

[PhantomDashCam]

[SouthernFryd]

Reed Sheppard at 4. Dalton Knecht at 8.

You want offense?

Sheppard, Vassell, Knecht, Wemby...and MAMU. There ya go.

Defense? Well...have to work on that a bit. But, at least they'll be fun to watch again. That alone is worth it

[Darkwaters]

Reed Sheppard at 4. Dalton Knecht at 8.

You want offense?

Sheppard, Vassell, Knecht, Wemby...and MAMU. There ya go.

Defense? Well...have to work on that a bit. But, at least they'll be fun to watch again. That alone is worth it

Knecht would probably be a solid player for us. Limited in some areas for sure, but he brings the one skill we need most in absolute spades.

He's just not the type of player the Spurs have prioritized drafting. As much as I might like him personally, I don't think it's the path the Spurs seem to be on.

[mo7888]

Knecht would probably be a solid player for us. Limited in some areas for sure, but he brings the one skill we need most in absolute spades.

He's just not the type of player the Spurs have prioritized drafting. As much as I might like him personally, I don't think it's the path the Spurs seem to be on.

I'd probably be fine with him at 8, but Manu's comment that we intend to be competing in 2-3 years + the fact that's there radio silence from the FO about him makes me think he's pretty high on our board.

[Knoxxx]

Separated at birth, no doubt!

A few months ago we had no idea Sheppard was even going pro. Now we are worried about the Rockets taking him at 3 in front of us. That’s actually a pretty lucky break. But now that he’s an option we don’t want him as much. Human nature. Except that HOU could take him a pick before us so we want him more. Crazy stuff.

[rascal]

Reed Sheppard at 4. Dalton Knecht at 8.

You want offense?

Sheppard, Vassell, Knecht, Wemby...and MAMU. There ya go.

Defense? Well...have to work on that a bit. But, at least they'll be fun to watch again. That alone is worth it

Fun?

The fun will be from the other teams running over this team with superior athleticism.