Nonzero for sure but unfortunately the judge has been pretty consistent with his leanings that Trump's 'First Amendment Right' to run for POTUS shall not be infringed, whatever that means. Means he's unlikely to do hard time but a lot of outlets are saying he could be spending the campaign trail on house arrest in Florida and thus be limited to campaigning within ~10 miles of Mar-a-Lago. Other outlets are saying that he'll get by with fines, extensive probation, and cease and desist type of injunctions.
The dream scenario is that he gets the full sentence (4 years state prison is the max, as per NY law prison sentences for white-collar felonies can only be served concurrently, not consecutively) and then a plea deal is done where the sentence gets thrown out but in exchange he agrees to forever give up all current and future bids for any federal or state public office, including POTUS. Unfortunately, I don't think that's cons utional.
Will Hunting can attest to that.
All we know is that the judge has the ability to sentence anything from zero to four years of prison time, but only 10% of similar cases generally result in actual jail time, most get by with probation and fines. House arrest is the intermediate option and it would all but ensure a Biden victory if only Biden could physically go to the swing states.
The GOP needs to do the smart and appropriate and right thing and distance themselves from Trump right now. Do a "runoff" primary in every state between the second and third place finishers, Haley and DeSantis. Hopefully DeSantis wins, which I think he would, even if he placed third in the primaries due to dropping out quickly.