Maybe my least favorite potential pick at #8. I just feel like there will at least be 3 other guys available there with just as much upside and less risk to totally bust. Also would be 3+ guys that might not have quite the same upside but have 10x the likelihood of at least becoming a solid role player for a contending team (which is still valuable, despite some people’s obsession with chasing upside).
I don't agree with what I'm about to say but I guess I can understand the logic but with so many upcoming draft picks in the upcoming future (and better drafts), do you use a lottery pick to take a flyer on a dude like this, this year just based on potential? Very Joshua Primo in that aspect
Pretty fair assessment in my estimation..
Some time ago I took a look at an extended vid Dejounte posted here (or the link to the channel, I believe), and the video is rough. If you're going to take a raw prospect based on potential, you at least want to see a fluid, coordinated athlete, with some basic tools to build upon. Salaun really isn't that, he moves somewhat robotic overall, not just from the line. His lack of vertical pop is obvious when you see him throwing up these prayers of a layup instead of just dunking all over smaller oponents as you'd expect, and in so doing he exposes his complete lack of touch, it isn't just that he's inefficient, it looks horrendous, he makes Blake Wesley look like MJ. His dunks are usually open and then he follows them up with this hang on the rim, trying to make them look more flashy when he barely left the floor in the first place. I asked some people for what they saw in him in the general thread, because it was interesting to me what others saw that was so radically different to what I was seeing, and I think by the comparisons I got (Scottie Barnes?) most Salaun supporters probably didn't watch him play and go by biased media reports.
If he makes it in the NBA, IMO his path is as an all hustle stretch 4 that does little on offense other than hit the 3 at a good clip and crash the boards. There's very little skill in him, I honestly would hesitate to touch him with a 2nd round pick, let alone a lottery one. The idea that the Spurs might pick him at 8 gives me the chills. Hope that's all smoke.
Yeah, the bust potential of this guy is off the charts. It's almost as if in three years we could hope he looks like DaRon Holmes II does now at three years older. I don't know if I can squint enough to see his playing the wing. A team that drafts him might just hope he keeps growing into a PF/C. A center that can park at the top of the arc isn't the worst thing that could happen.
hard pass at 8
i'd much rather swing at cody williams than him if they wanted a boom or bust style pick at 8
The consensus, mentioned in the article is that there is a lack of boom/bust prospects, meaning teams aren’t seeing much upside in much of anyone.
Solid role players can be signed from the FA pool. Take the big swing with the high pick. I’d rather have a bust than a solid role player that I can sign in any free agent period. Settling is about the worst thing you can do.
yeah but he doesnt protect the rim, and surely doesnt rebound like a center. you are looking at bonner with more pep in his step. a center who can shoot 3's by itself isnt really good enough anymore. olynyk without playmaking chops doesnt seem exciting at all
people keep talking about some star potential and i really dont see it. right now he is a developmental project that you hope can become a role player some day. thats not remotely good enough to be taken #8 even in a weak draft.
like, i couldnt fathom taking him over Clingan, even for the spurs
I like Williams, too, but wouldn’t hate this.
of the people supposedly in consideration to go at or around 8, salaun is at the very bottom of my ranking
Pass, and a hard pass at that. We need people ready to come in and contribute now, or at least within a season and an offseason's or so of work. This guy isn't that. He'll be someone else's diamond in the rough - we need positive instant production, especially offensively. No more Bran Hams and Wesleys can fit on this roster at the moment.
Could you give us a best case outcome you envision for him? and a most likely outcome? Otherwise we're just throwing around abstract nonsense.
Maybe MPJ if his shot stabilizes? His median outcomes aren’t good, but I’d rather draft him than someone who has an archetype available to sign in FA or his summer.
I just don’t agree with this line of thinking.
I realize these are purely hypothetical numbers but let’s just say a guy has a 5% chance at becoming an all-star and 95% chance of being out of the league in 3 years. Another guy has a 70% chance of being a solid role player (20-25 mpg, positive impact for a contending team) and a 30% chance of not making it at all. Who are you taking?
Obviously people have different opinions on the %s but the point is that it’s not always as easy as “pick the guy with the most upside”. I’m not saying upside doesn’t matter or shouldn’t be considered, but some people act like it’s legitimately the only thing that matters and I just totally disagree.
Lastly, signing FAs isn’t as straight-forward as you make it seem. What if they don’t want to come here? What if another team offers them more money? What if we’re super limited with our cap situation? Just because there might be solid role players available in FA doesn’t guarantee they’re going to end up on your team.
We all need to mentally prepare for the prospect of Salaun as the 4th pick. Nightmare scenario indeed
Spurs use #4 + #8 to move up to #1 and pick Salaun. Book it.
#reversejinx
Watch this actually happen though after rumors of the Hornets and Blazers seriously considering him at 6 & 7
I see nothing in their respective skillsets that would lead me to compare Salaun to MPJ, it sounds like wishful thinking to me. Honestly, Patrick Baldwin Jr would have made a much more believable MPJ candidate. I think you're talking yourself into Salaun by using flawed logic. It goes something like this:
- In this draft, any gem to be found will come out of left field.
- Salaun hitting would come out of left field
- Therefore, Salaun is a prime candidate to be such hidden gem.
That sounds like a recipe for disaster, TBH.
MPJ is an elite level shooter when factoring in his height/release and movement shooting
thats more than salaun's shot "stabilizing"
salaun going 6 or 7 would save us from ourselves tbhWatch this actually happen though after rumors of the Hornets and Blazers seriously considering him at 6 & 7
What's your take on the draft then?
I won't lie, I'm kind of getting less and less hyped with each passing day.
The only realistic targets that should be solid NBA players even if they don't live up to their potential are Castle and Sheppard.
One is a secondary playmaker without range.
The other one is an undersized shooting guard who can't be the primary playmaker or point of attack defender.
Everyone else has a good chance of being out of the league after their rookie contract.
These to are the two least risky picks that will be available at #4, but their ceiling doesn't look that high.
Weaknesses: can't play basketball
Exactly. I have trouble seeing his being worthy of any first round pick let alone the lottery because is doesn't look like he's going to be able to learn how to play basketball with the exception of the shooting stroke. Guys like Clingan and Edey are going to contribute immediately. I guess the argument could be made that he has had ty coaching to this point but one could pick up Basketball for Dummies and show better fundamentals.
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