Nikola Topic

[baseline bum]

He’d go higher in this draft, injured, than next year, recovered.

Even worse on an ACL tear he won't be recovered until the 2026 draft.

[R. DeMurre]

I think the analysis that Topic can't shoot is simply inaccurate. I've watched everything available on him and his form looks good, and most importantly, he's never intimidated or passive about shooting. His 3 pt totals from '22-'23 were 48/130 for .369, and his '23-'24 totals were 26/85 for .306.

If you combine those two, it's 74/215, or .344. His FT%s for those two years were .889 and .878, which is elite in any context. I think the "can't shoot" label got applied early and picked up steam to the point where people started to repeat it as gospel. The 3pt shooting totals from this year are a very small sample size, and if he'd made, say, three more shots that % would've been 34%-- and 34% is his overall average for the past two seasons and 200+ attempts... ( Strictly for comparison's sake, note that Doncic's career 3pt% is 34.7%). His TS% for the past two years is well over 60%, which is outstanding. I don't see any fear or tentativeness in him with regards to 3pt or midrange shooting, but rather a preference for going to his strengths of penetrating and either scoring or kicking out-- things he did with supreme efficiency. Lots of the criticisms of his game have understandable relevance, but people confidently stating that he simply can't shoot just doesn't ring true to me. He's been the aggressive offensive engine of U18 and Serbian teams, and thrives as a floor general who so far makes great decisions with regards to shot selection and distribution. For me, pigeonholing him as a guy who's unable or unwilling to take and make outside shots doesn't capture his actual essence as a player.

[Bruno]

Think that would be a huge mistake for him to withdraw. He'll still go first round and still get a guaranteed two years and almost certainly another two after that.

He has reportedly a quite big buyout with his Serbian team. He might end up in a scenario where being drafted around pick #20 isn't that interesting for him financially wise.

I'm not saying he will withdraw, I'm just not ruling it out.

[Maddog]

He has reportedly a quite big buyout with his Serbian team. He might end up in a scenario where being drafted around pick #20 isn't that interesting for him financially wise.

I'm not saying he will withdraw, I'm just not ruling it out.

Is the buyout the same next year?
That may not be readily available information but all this could factor in

[Bruno]

Is the buyout the same next year?
That may not be readily available information but all this could factor in

I don't have specific about his buyout. I just remember an interview of Red Star owner saying it was big which is logical given that he signed a 4 years contract last summer. Usually buyouts gets lower the closer the player is to the end of his contract. There are also buyouts that depend on what pick the player is drafted.

[CGD]

Looking at the teams after 8, he could really drop. That said, I STILL think the Spurs take him if he’s there at 8 (honestly I think he was their choice at 4 before this).

I now wonder how that changes the thinking on 4. Do they really go Matas to get their wing?

[sfernald]

Looking at the teams after 8, he could really drop. That said, I STILL think the Spurs take him if he’s there at 8 (honestly I think he was their choice at 4 before this).

I now wonder how that changes the thinking on 4. Do they really go Matas to get their wing?

This would be a perfect opportunity to trade back a bit and still get their guy lower (topic) and pick up an asset. Especially if Clingan drops to #8 I think some team tries to snag him before Memphis.

[rascal]

I think the analysis that Topic can't shoot is simply inaccurate. I've watched everything available on him and his form looks good, and most importantly, he's never intimidated or passive about shooting. His 3 pt totals from '22-'23 were 48/130 for .369, and his '23-'24 totals were 26/85 for .306.

If you combine those two, it's 74/215, or .344. His FT%s for those two years were .889 and .878, which is elite in any context. I think the "can't shoot" label got applied early and picked up steam to the point where people started to repeat it as gospel. The 3pt shooting totals from this year are a very small sample size, and if he'd made, say, three more shots that % would've been 34%-- and 34% is his overall average for the past two seasons and 200+ attempts... ( Strictly for comparison's sake, note that Doncic's career 3pt% is 34.7%). His TS% for the past two years is well over 60%, which is outstanding. I don't see any fear or tentativeness in him with regards to 3pt or midrange shooting, but rather a preference for going to his strengths of penetrating and either scoring or kicking out-- things he did with supreme efficiency. Lots of the criticisms of his game have understandable relevance, but people confidently stating that he simply can't shoot just doesn't ring true to me. He's been the aggressive offensive engine of U18 and Serbian teams, and thrives as a floor general who so far makes great decisions with regards to shot selection and distribution. For me, pigeonholing him as a guy who's unable or unwilling to take and make outside shots doesn't capture his actual essence as a player.

I'm seeing .250 for 3 pt % for 22-23
.247 across 3 seasons

[R. DeMurre]

I'm seeing .250 for 3 pt % for 22-23
.247 across 3 seasons

That's the basketball reference page, which is incomplete. The realgm
page is more comprehensive: https://basketball.realgm.com/player...Summary/179307

[exstatic]

I'm seeing .250 for 3 pt % for 22-23
.247 across 3 seasons

Those are just the senior team stats, a few games. He also played on youth squads most of his 16 and 17 year old seasons, sort of the JV team for those teams.

https://basketball.realgm.com/player...Summary/179307

[objective]

I still would be okay taking him 8 or trading down to get him.

I had been hoping for more for combinations of players lately rather than just single pick focused, e.g. Risacher & Topic or Sheppard & Holland.

[rjv]

Looking at the teams after 8, he could really drop. That said, I STILL think the Spurs take him if he’s there at 8 (honestly I think he was their choice at 4 before this).

I now wonder how that changes the thinking on 4. Do they really go Matas to get their wing?

if it's matas and topic, i can see a big meltdown in here but, in context, i don't really think such a meltdown would be justified, especially if either shepard or castle were already gone by the 4th pick. no one is going to be ideal. they're all going to have blemishes and some will check off some boxes. all i know is that there are some players i want nothing to do with and others that i really like one day and am not so sure about on another day.

[poopbox]

Injury news probably increases his chanced of the spurs drafting him. Perfect stealth tank move. If they really draft him and instantly say he out for the entire season then you already know what type of time we going to be on.

[KingKev]

Injury news probably increases his chanced of the spurs drafting him. Perfect stealth tank move. If they really draft him and instantly say he out for the entire season then you already know what type of time we going to be on.

There probably isn’t a player in this draft who will move the needle in year one. Tank or no tank. But i’m all for anither soft tank tbh.

[poopbox]

There probably isn’t a player in this draft who will move the needle in year one. Tank or no tank. But i’m all for anither soft tank tbh.

I think Dilly could. The combination of having a real point guard who can break down defenses and score at all 3 levels + not playing sochan at point guard probably has us competing for that last play in spot.

I do agree that in the long run drafting a player with an acl injury makes almost no difference. Topic is 19 and the Spurs are the youngest team in the nba. Young teams are supposed to be bad and in 3 years nobody will care or remember Topic had a turn acl in 2024

[CGD]

if it's matas and topic, i can see a big meltdown in here but, in context, i don't really think such a meltdown would be justified, especially if either shepard or castle were already gone by the 4th pick. no one is going to be ideal. they're all going to have blemishes and some will check off some boxes. all i know is that there are some players i want nothing to do with and others that i really like one day and am not so sure about on another day.

I think this is a possible outcome. I remember when we first started talking about the lideal combinations” right after the lotto drawing, the prevailing view was to take the best wing early and the best PG left at 8.

I generally think that’s still right, but many of us also assumed ZR would be there at 4. And then there is the whole Castle thing: is he a PG or not, and if not is he the right wing to prioritize at 4?

And that leave Matas, who honestly we haven’t scrutinized closely here (nor has TIMVP done a write up in him yet). Is he the next best wing?

[BackHome]

Yeah, I am flipping again with taking the best forward and then picking up a PG at 8

[Dex]

He has reportedly a quite big buyout with his Serbian team. He might end up in a scenario where being drafted around pick #20 isn't that interesting for him financially wise.

I'm not saying he will withdraw, I'm just not ruling it out.

SCOLA THREAD!!!

[buttsR4rebounding]

If the Spurs have interest he is not going to withdraw. Playing with Wemby will increase his marketability enough to compensate for a higher buyout over the course of the contract.

[TD 21]

And then there is the whole Castle thing: is he a PG or not, and if not is he the right wing to prioritize at 4?

It's more about role than listing. Either way, he's not coming in and initiating volume p-n-r, but he will defend POA 1-3, so he counts as a wing defender.

[JPB]

If they really had no interest, they wouldn’t have gotten the medicals.

The NBA is sending medicals to all the lottery teams.

And anyway, if they had no interest, they still would have gotten them, not to show they had no interest.

[JPB]

I don't have specific about his buyout. I just remember an interview of Red Star owner saying it was big which is logical given that he signed a 4 years contract last summer. Usually buyouts gets lower the closer the player is to the end of his contract. There are also buyouts that depend on what pick the player is drafted.

they're using buyouts to cash in their prospects, with his agent, and the player camp's, getting something on it, one way or the other. They certainly knew or assumed Topic would be drafted this year but still signed a 4 year contract last summer... But it's up to negocation, specially with Topic's injury that certainly redistributes the cards, all the more if NBA teams choose surgery, which I believe they will. Not sure Red star can be too greedy now.

[couchman]

I still like Topic at #8.
There was a time he was #1 on my board and injury uncertainty is the only reason I've moved others above him.
ACL injuries are rarely career threatening anymore, especially for players like Topic who rely on hesitation, deceleration, size, and length to consistently finish in the paint rather than traditional "athleticism."
Taking Topic adds a significant talent to the roster and also allows us to stealth tank into the '25 draft.
It would be very shortsighted to let Topic, who many saw as a top 3 pick just a few months ago, drop into the hands of someone like Utah, OKC, or Miami where he would undoubtedly be given time to heal and then developed into the best version of himself.
Of course there are guys I now have rated above Topic, but I doubt any of them will be available at #8.

[fafo]

I'm not the biggest fan of Topic for all the reasons listed in this thread, but I wonder if having him redshirt his first year and rehab/practice in an NBA environment would help make his debut the following year be that much smoother for him. I think of Chet Holmgren who had to sit out last year because of the broken foot and then had a very strong start this season. At least that's what I'll talk myself into if they draft him lol.

[DesignatedT]