Look, it’s a cop out answer but this stuff isn’t black or white. It’s not “Player A has upside but Player B is a safe role player”. There are low range outcomes, median outcomes, high-range outcomes and a million alternatives all in between.
Ultimately it comes down to what those possible outcomes are, and what are the %s of each hitting. An “upside prospect” having a 30% chance of busting and 70% chance of becoming an all-star isn’t the same as an upside prospect with a 90% chance of busting and a 10% chance of actually becoming a star.
In the case of Salaun: hate to say it but I view him more as the latter of those scenarios. And when the chances of a guy panning out are that low, then sorry but I’ll gladly take a guy with a higher floor whose ceiling might be a little lower. Keep in mind that it’s entirely possible for guys to end up having a ceiling that wasn’t perceived to be there. You can’t just harp on Salaun’s upside and then act like it’s 100% certainty that Knecht (just using as an example) will never be anything more than a role player.
It just seems wild to me that people would only focus on the top 1% of outcomes and ignore what would play out the other 99% of times. I’m not saying upside is irrelevant but again there’s a spectrum here…and at some point just saying “well I want to gamble on the upside because role players are a dime a dozen” just doesn’t make sense.