2024 NBA Draft Thread

[Vienna]

it's an interesting scenario, that the Spurs might try to somehow snag Risacher and Castle.
when talking about building an iden y, that is based on defense, this would of course be a huge step.
there might be the question, why invest in an allegedly weak draft, but there could be the answer, that just because teams are not confident in this draft, the price to move up might be lower than usual.
anyway, without speculating about the price for those moves, the idea of a line up with Castle, Vassell, Risacher, Sochan, Wemby is very very intriguing regarding the defensive potential.

[heyheymymy]

Vecenie did a podcast today where we traded with DET for 5. Trade was 8 and the better of SAS and ATL’s 2027 picks (top-7 protected) for 5. He had Rissacher falling to us at 4. We then took Castle at 5.

I don’t love Castle, so I think the proposed trade is an overpay (I’d do lottery protected, maybe). But he does his pod with a dude from Detroit, so that’s a somewhat interesting coincidence.

BWright was a DET guy after all. I support this trade and would be thrilled but Risacher and Castle are my #1 and #2 personally so I'm biased. Fans talk about consolidating in picks and this would be a good return on bundling in some future assets. ATL has the #1 so either that player or the equivalent value will possibly have crystallized by 2027, def want to keep the ATLs but if SA does peel off some of the ATL pick horde it would make sense to start from the furthest back and move in more recent from there. 2027, lot of time and variables to occur between now and then.

Would prob take 1-3 2RPs as well.

[JPB]

I never said it was a given. His intel with the Lakers is much more likely to be on point, but he has some access league-wide. If you have seen his stuff over the years you know he is not your average blow hard.

That wasn't shot at you. but whatever "intel" they might have, none of theses media guys could say who the top 4 teams are gonna draft now. Again, teams might not even know themselves and they wouldn't anyway let media guys know it. Lots of smoke screens and misdirection too.

The only guy (but he stopped doing this) was Woj announcing the pick a few seconds before (when teams are not risking anything giving them to him anymore). Anything else is pretty much irrelevant.

[Mr. Body]

it's an interesting scenario, that the Spurs might try to somehow snag Risacher and Castle.
when talking about building an iden y, that is based on defense, this would of course be a huge step.
there might be the question, why invest in an allegedly weak draft, but there could be the answer, that just because teams are not confident in this draft, the price to move up might be lower than usual.
anyway, without speculating about the price for those moves, the idea of a line up with Castle, Vassell, Risacher, Sochan, Wemby is very very intriguing regarding the defensive potential.

They wouldn't be investing in a weak draft, they'd be getting the players they want, really.

I'm avaricious enough that I don't like giving up first round picks, but this in theory is the sort of move you'd want to make.

[CGD]

Vecenie in his latest mock does this:

Sarr
Clingan
Reed

And then with his guest they wind up hashing out a trade with Detroit, moving up from 8. They wind up trading the best of the ATL/SAS picks on 2027 protected 1-7. Not sure what capital it would require but okay.

Risacher
Castle

So they have Risacher slipping past Washington, which makes tons of sense to me. And they have the Spurs aggressive to get Castle by moving up from 8.

Somehow walking away with those two would be my ideal outcome. I also think SA will make a play for Garland, which is the only reason I’m interested in ZR.

[SpursFan86]

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/sto...-round-1-picks

Latest mock from ESPN has Givony/Woo each doing a mock: the former going off of team need and the latter going off of value/BPA.

Interestingly enough they both end up with Sheppard to the Spurs at 4. Givony goes with Knecht at 8 while Woo has Devin Carter at that spot.

[CGD]

KOC saying that following teams are trying to move up to lottery using their picks: CLE (20), POR (14), and TOR (19)

FWIW anyway

[exstatic]

Detroit should definitely rent out cap space. A player like Levine is a massive albatross for Chicago. They could use a guy who can just run around and score, plus can get assets to take him.

And trading down in the draft seems wise. I'd ring the bell for any diners wanting Clingan and take the best package. I hadn't thought of them as a team to jump to in order to get a Castle if, say, the 4 is Risacher.

Yes, Pistons fans really aren't big Duren fans. Apparently his defense is totally awful.

It was a weird pick, because that archetype really holds little value in today’s NBA.

[LeBowen]

It was a weird pick, because that archetype really holds little value in today’s NBA.

He needs to fix a lot of things, but he still hasn't turned 21 yet.
Playing for Pistons in their current state is really hard.

Tbh, I wouldn't mind taking a flyer on him if Pistons are looking to get rid.
He could develop into a bigger Montrezl Harrell. Could be great off the bench with a 6th man scorer.

[exstatic]

He needs to fix a lot of things, but he still hasn't turned 21 yet.
Playing for Pistons in their current state is really hard.

Tbh, I wouldn't mind taking a flyer on him if Pistons are looking to get rid.
He could develop into a bigger Montrezl Harrell. Could be great off the bench with a 6th man scorer.

He’s not much bigger than Harrell, who was a second round pick, and no longer in the NBA. You’re kind of making my point for me.

Duren was a lottery pick, so they won’t cut him loose or sell him cheap, at least not for a while.

[LeBowen]

He’s not much bigger than Harrell, who was a second round pick, and no longer in the NBA. You’re kind of making my point for me.

Duren was a lottery pick, so they won’t cut him loose or sell him cheap, at least not for a while.

Harrell was 6'6-6'7.
Duren looks 6'9-6'10.

Harrell is out of the league because he's an idiot off the court.
He was a great backup big for several years.

Don't forget Pistons got a new front office, those people don't care about previous mistakes.

[exstatic]

Harrell was 6'6-6'7.
Duren looks 6'9-6'10.

Harrell is out of the league because he's an idiot off the court.
He was a great backup big for several years.

Don't forget Pistons got a new front office, those people don't care about previous mistakes.

ATL also has a new FO,and they still want their picks back. Not sure that thought process hold water.

[scott]

It was a weird pick, because that archetype really holds little value in today’s NBA.

I agree about the archetype… but oddly, that archetype is projected to go #1 or #2 in this year’s draft.

[exstatic]

I agree about the archetype… but oddly, that archetype is projected to go #1 or #2 in this year’s draft.

A draft where many suggest that starts with a normal 8 pick or even 10 pick according to some. I’m also not in love with Sarr. There’s also recent buzz that Sarr/Risacher aren’t nearly the 1/2 locks that mocks would have you believe.

Also, front offices do dumb things.

[Vienna]

They wouldn't be investing in a weak draft, they'd be getting the players they want, really.

I'm avaricious enough that I don't like giving up first round picks, but this in theory is the sort of move you'd want to make.

we only discussed moving up from pick 4, but just for the sake of discussion, what would be the path to move from 8 to 5 or 6? yes, picks, but would the Pistons or Hornets listen, if Sochan is offered?
Hornets might need a replacement for Bridges. Pistons have some use for a combo forward. Fontecchio was a surprise for them, but he is also a FA.

[Mr. Body]

we only discussed moving up from pick 4, but just for the sake of discussion, what would be the path to move from 8 to 5 or 6? yes, picks, but would the Pistons or Hornets listen, if Sochan is offered?
Hornets might need a replacement for Bridges. Pistons have some use for a combo forward. Fontecchio was a surprise for them, but he is also a FA.

They would snap Sochan up in a second and run away giggling. That's insane.

[Mr. Body]

Vec and his bud in his last YT mock hashed out trading up to Detroit's 5 with our 8 using the better of the Atlanta/San Antonio picks in 2027 protected from 1-7.

The Trae Young-Luka Doncic swap (3 to 5, I believe) cost a 1-5 pick in the next year's draft, which I believe was Cam Reddish at #10 (full on ing yikes).

So... that feels about fair. I'm sure the Spurs could dangle the Chicago pick instead, but any pick that could wind up being late lottery, with a risk of worse, sometime in the future seems to be what would do it.

Indiana-Washington swapped the 7th/8th slots last year at the cost of two second round picks. In this draft, it feels like something in between, the Luka/Trae and the Indiana/Washington.

[Extra Stout]

They would snap Sochan up in a second and run away giggling. That's insane.

Sochan’s not untouchable by any means, but I agree, trading him to move up two or three spots in a flat draft is not a decision that a front office in possession of its faculties would make.

[Ariel]

These trade up scenarios are sickening. You don't give up a developing 6'8" forward to move up 3 spots, and you don't give up a pick that may be more valuable than #5 outright. Good grief, I hope the FO isn't stupid enough to fall for any of these.

[Mr. Body]

These trade up scenarios are sickening. You don't give up a developing 6'8" forward to move up 3 spots, and you don't give up a pick that may be more valuable than #5 outright. Good grief, I hope the FO isn't stupid enough to fall for any of these.

Sochan, no. The future pick, depends. If you really want to secure a guy you have great faith in, then sure. A top five player in this draft may very well be better than the number 10 player in 2027. In fact, I'd say probably. Like with the Atlanta trade, they wound up picking Cam Reddish. Yeesh.

I wouldn't do it willy-nilly for a draft spot, but if I've worked out Stephon Castle, sat down and interviewed him, and am confident I'm getting a cornerstone player who solves a massive problem I'm now facing (perimeter defense), then giving up that pick isn't a bad option. In 2027 the Spurs are looking at the playoffs. If it's 1-10 protected, they still have a safety. And they get the Hawks' pick anyway.

I'm still personally reluctant, but I see the value.

[scott]

Sochan, no. The future pick, depends. If you really want to secure a guy you have great faith in, then sure. A top five player in this draft may very well be better than the number 10 player in 2027. In fact, I'd say probably. Like with the Atlanta trade, they wound up picking Cam Reddish. Yeesh.

I wouldn't do it willy-nilly for a draft spot, but if I've worked out Stephon Castle, sat down and interviewed him, and am confident I'm getting a cornerstone player who solves a massive problem I'm now facing (perimeter defense), then giving up that pick isn't a bad option. In 2027 the Spurs are looking at the playoffs. If it's 1-10 protected, they still have a safety. And they get the Hawks' pick anyway.

I'm still personally reluctant, but I see the value.

If you believe my Trade Value Chart (which one may or may not), then the difference between #5 and #8 is 500 points, which also happens to be the value of a Year+3 (2027) pick in the 11-20 range (which is probably a fair estimate for a Top 7 protected pick). So in theory, by my chart, the Vec trade pencils out.

500 points is also roughly the value of the #35 pick in this years draft, so I'd rather do that. But in reality, this leads me to believe that picks 25 and onward are probably a little overvalued in my chart (which is the same as Pelton's chart from 2018 after pick 14). We almost certainly wouldn't be able to trade #35 for a Top-7 protected 27 FRP, so I think those post-lotto picks need to be reduced a little in my chart.

[scott]

I'd prefer to make it an unprotected Worst-Of as opposed to a Top-7 protected Best Of, if you really wanted to move up for Castle. You probably want to be on being a playoff team by then, and you'll have a roster full of recent draft picks from 2024-26, so you may not really want 2 in 2027 (not to mention, you may also be getting CHI in 2027 anyway)

[SOMA Spur]

A couple of notes from yesterday.

-Both Givony and Woo had Devin Carter rated top ten. Also Vecenie and Bryce Simon mentioned they had Carter rated in their top ten (even though he went later in their mock). For me, it’s starting to feel like Carter is a lock at 8 or 9, we’ll see…

-Finally watched KOC interview with Buzelis (gave me oli vibes, but not in a bad way). Matas says he’s now 205 and is looking to get to 212 with continued added athletecism by the time the season starts. KOC asked him how you exactly increase athleticism. He talked about his work with Plyometrics jump training, building muscle & improved performance. I’m sure all these guys do this, but the results are evident with his latest videos posted by Givony and others.



As others have mentioned, with a good possibility of us ending up with Buzelis/Carter, I’m trying to get excited about hopping on that train. Almost there.

[DPG21920]

If you believe my Trade Value Chart (which one may or may not), then the difference between #5 and #8 is 500 points, which also happens to be the value of a Year+3 (2027) pick in the 11-20 range (which is probably a fair estimate for a Top 7 protected pick). So in theory, by my chart, the Vec trade pencils out.

500 points is also roughly the value of the #35 pick in this years draft, so I'd rather do that. But in reality, this leads me to believe that picks 25 and onward are probably a little overvalued in my chart (which is the same as Pelton's chart from 2018 after pick 14). We almost certainly wouldn't be able to trade #35 for a Top-7 protected 27 FRP, so I think those post-lotto picks need to be reduced a little in my chart.

Good news is in a draft like this, Spurs have so many 2nds alongside other sweeteners like CHA, CHI and swaps etc…that they should be able to move up if they want to

[Mr. Body]

Good news is in a draft like this, Spurs have so many 2nds alongside other sweeteners like CHA, CHI and swaps etc…that they should be able to move up if they want to

I'm almost as interested in moving into the back part of the first round. I realize there's a roster crunch, but most of those players are pretty marginal.

Probably too much to take on three rookies. However, Knicks have 24 and 25. Other teams might want to dump slight bits of salary and generally the notion is that early second round is more flexible for cap-strapped contending teams than the late first. They can be limber with finances and go two-way.

As I've said before, I'd vastly prefer drafting Furphy at 20 than Risacher at 2. Not that I dislike Risacher, and do expect to draft him, but that the value is skewed.