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Sheppard to Houston almost seems to be getting telegraphed at this point. Makes me think it's not gonna happen tbh. Still think they're gonna try and move that pick for a win-now player.
Easily Risacher. Dream scenario for us.
Follow up @8 with Dillingham, maybe Knecht, unlikely ones like Buzelis/Castle would obviously take precedence if somehow they're still on the board
Sheppard to Houston almost seems to be getting telegraphed at this point. Makes me think it's not gonna happen tbh. Still think they're gonna try and move that pick for a win-now player.
Malaki and Blake gotta be crossing their fingers it’s not Sheppard or Castle at #4. I think Topic, Dilly, Carter at #8 probably not affect them as much and they spend more time in Austin to develop.
BR's newest mock:
1. Risacher - ATL
2. Sarr - WAS
3. Sheppard - HOU
4. Castle - SAS
5. Buzelis - DET
6. Clingan - CHA
7. C. Williams - POR
8. Carter - SAS
9. Holland - MEM
10. Knecht - UT
11. Dillingham - CHI
12. Salaun - OKC
13. Ware - SAC
14. De Silva - POR
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10125089-2024-nba-mock-draft-full-2-round-predictions-with-one-week-to-go
It seems like two top three situations are emerging:
Clingan
Sarr
Sheppard
or
Risacher
Sarr
Clingan (traded by Houston)
Basically, in these situations the Spurs have:
Risacher or Castle
or
Sheppard or Castle
I'm not convinced the Spurs would look at anyone beyond Sheppard/Risacher/Castle for the #4 pick. My feel is that the Spurs would take the shooter first, whether it's Risacher or Sheppard, and hope to get Castle after. There's a chance Castle survives Detroit-Charlotte-Portland, although moving up to the Charlotte slot may be necessary.
I feel like Risacher/Castle or Sheppard/Castle would be a big win of a draft.
If the reports of Sarr refusing to work out for ATL are true, I think Risacher becomes the easy #1 choice for them imo. I'm not buying the Clingan #1 overall hype. Just don't see it happening personally.
Wonder if we see the influence of new CHA mgmt in their selection.
Detroit, Washington, Charlotte all have new management.
if they want to move out, the one that makes the most intuitive sense to me will be memphis (if clingan is still available at 4, which is why we wont see the move happen until real time). there is otherwise the ever-looming rumor of the rockets trading for bridges, but the nets apparently are treating him like prime KD or something
Entirely possible, Also possible that the Spurs can get decent compe ion for their higher targets by publicizing those workouts and giving those maybe-lower rated players some lottery buzz.
I'm speculating purely off the seeming consensus of these nowhere-near-confident-or-actually-informed mocks.
Givony really keeps pushing this Spurs - Hawks trade up narrative. Almost like he desperately wants it to happen. Hopefully PATFO are smarter than this.
I just legitimately can’t fathom the Spurs giving any of ATL’s picks back. There’s no way in they’re that high on Risacher or Sheppard. It makes even less sense when you consider that it seems fairly likely at this point that one of those guys will be available at 4.
Think Givony is just saying random tbh. Or trying to create a smokescreen for whatever ulterior reason.
I suspect that Memphis will not be willing to pay a lot to move up to draft Clingan. The more I think about it, the more Edey makes just as much sense for them and they can easily get him at 9:
1. Grizzlies front office is very analytically minded, and Edey/Clingan graded out as the 2 best players in the draft by many models
2. They start JJJ, whose strengths are his mobility and 3 point shooting, and whose weakness is his rebounding. Edey is a dominant post player who can take full advantage of spacing provided by JJJ. He's one of the best rebounders of the last 25 years which makes up for JJJ's rebounding deficiencies. He's big (7'10" wingspan) enough to play drop and JJJ is one of the few guys who at his best can be a Giannis-lite eraser from the weak side covering up a lot of Edey's deficiencies.
3. Unlike OKC, Memphis has no problem playing a slower pace
4. He grades in the 100th percentile as a PNR finisher, sets crushing screens, and has a huge catch radius. Memphis has one of the best PNR guards in the entire league in Ja, leading the league in PNR possessions 2 years ago.
5. He plays in a division with undersized or skinny centers. He'll have 80 pounds on Wemby/Chet and 5 inches on Sengun, so the choice will either be to have one of the aforementioned centers guard him in the post and risk foul trouble/wear and tear/fatigue or guard him with a power forward that's giving up 6-7 inches and 60 lbs for a free 2 points. Unlike Clingan, Edey has the ability to absolutely punish mismatches down low
For all these reasons, Edey's actually my dark horse pick for Memphis at 9; I don't think they'd be willing to give up a ton to move up for Clingan when Edey is just sitting there for them
For sure - this draft more than most has potential for “mocks be damned” shenanigans
Clingan to Charlotte seems unlikely, but if it happened I'd want the Spurs to make an offer for Mark Williams. He's locked into a very reasonable contract for the next two years and could be a great piece either as a player or as future trade bait.
Theres zero chance SA is going to give ATL a pick back simply to move up from 4. Now, if ATL wants to trade pick 1 outright for one of their picks back? Ok. But not 4+ATL pick just to move up 3 spots. Dont care who is saying that, it’s not going to happen.
Only way ATL gets a pick(s) back from SA is if Trae or Murray are involved
Just seems like a facile clickbait formula for Givony.
#1 pick + trade talk = profit
Will there be any way to watch a replay of the draft coverage the next day? I'm not sure if League Pass has that.
I'd include Sheppard in that, but mostly agree. Unfortunately, there's virtually no chance Risacher gets to 4, so: 1 and Murray for 4, Hawks '25 1st, Hawks '26 swap rights, Hornets '25 1st, Jones.
I expect Houston to take him. Fred is a stop gap and they don't have a real point guard on the team outside of him. Makes sense to take him and slowly work him in while Fred is there and having him be the starter when Fred leaves. It doesn't make any sense for them to take anyone else.
I agree he would be the "right" pick for them, for all the reasons you stated. He's also arguably BPA at that point. I just tend to think when a team's pick is being telegraphed like Sheppard to Houston is, it usually doesn't happen tbh. But it probably will barring a major trade.
Yeah unfortunately I think the only way Sheppard makes it to 4 is if Houston trades out of the pick. Guess there’s a chance they’d go with Risacher over Sheppard assuming Clingan/Sarr go 1 and 2…but seems unlikely.
I really hate that HOU landed in front of SA. Kind of annoying that despite pick 3 and 4 not being much different value wise that it was HOU in front of SA here which may prevent Reed from getting to SA
I get the frustration, but I think either Charlotte or Detroit landing at 3 (teams with worse records than SA) would have meant Sheppard's off the board too. If you really want him, Houston might be a better option at 3 than if CHA or DET had gotten him as they are more likely to trade the pick given their win-now priorities.
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