2024 NBA Draft Thread

[SpursBills]

This is great stuff, thanks for sharing. WC Exec #1 is a chatterbox, lol

It mostly told me things that we've rehashed, but the real eye-opening one for me was multiple execs and scouts' opinions of McCain. I don't think he succeeds as your sole initiator, but in a multiple ball-handler multiple initiator system like the spurs are trying to run, he works really really well. His fit for Detroit and Charlotte and beside any big playmaker is also really nice.

If you take peoples' criticisms of Sheppard and Castle, and take the halfway point between them, a lot of it describes McCain

Physical tools - he's not Castle, and he's as tall and as long as Sheppard, but he's big and strong. He weighed in a 203 at the combine, which is heavier than guys like Jrue Holiday, Kyle Lowry, and Fred VanVleet when they started in the league. He probably ends up around 210, which is really heavy for a 6'3" guard.

POA defense - he's not elite like Castle, but he's also way better than Sheppard. His weight probably helps a lot here, as strength is often an overlooked factor in defense - it allows you to bump guys off their spots consistently and hold up on a switch in the post.

Shooting - not quite 50+% from 3 like Sheppard, but high volume 40+% coming off screens and pin downs, quick release; way way better than Castle obviously

Advanced stats - Castle's are bad offensively especially against top 50 and top 100 compe ion; Sheppard's are elite. McCain is pretty good - 8.5 BPM is more than respectable for a sop re-aged freshman

College team - Sheppard was a top 2 player for an underachieving first round exit. Castle was a key starter for a dominant national champion. McCain by the end of the season was arguably the best player for an elite 8 team.

DAWG/40 - elite intangibles based on everything I've read about him; Castle is great and I've never heard anything bad about Sheppard, but McCain is definitely not worse than either of these two

Compe iveness - Sheppard had his worst game of the season and shrank in his one tournament game but had multiple good games against high compe ion; Castle played well throughout the tournament but his offensive numbers crater against any kind of decent compe ion. McCain consistently raised his game in the highest leverage situations

A few weeks ago I floated the idea of trying to get McCain and Tyler Smith with 8 and 35 through some combination of trading up and trading down if Castle was the pick at 4. In my opinion, this is still the way I would go if the spurs decide Castle is that guy. McCain provides the ball-handling necessary to serve as a dribble-pass-shoot cog, he's big enough to not get hunted easily, and he provides the elite shooting necessary as a spacer if you want to play a mediocre/bad shooter in your lineup. I am actually not sure why he is not high on Detroit's list as a trade-down candidate as his toughness, defense, and shooting pairs incredibly well with Cade, arguably even better than Sheppard.

[scott]

It mostly told me things that we've rehashed, but the real eye-opening one for me was multiple execs and scouts' opinions of McCain. I don't think he succeeds as your sole initiator, but in a multiple ball-handler multiple initiator system like the spurs are trying to run, he works really really well. His fit for Detroit and Charlotte and beside any big playmaker is also really nice.

If you take peoples' criticisms of Sheppard and Castle, and take the halfway point between them, a lot of it describes McCain

Physical tools - he's not Castle, and he's as tall and as long as Sheppard, but he's big and strong. He weighed in a 203 at the combine, which is heavier than guys like Jrue Holiday, Kyle Lowry, and Fred VanVleet when they started in the league. He probably ends up around 210, which is really heavy for a 6'3" guard.

POA defense - he's not elite like Castle, but he's also way better than Sheppard. His weight probably helps a lot here, as strength is often an overlooked factor in defense - it allows you to bump guys off their spots consistently and hold up on a switch in the post.

Shooting - not quite 50+% from 3 like Sheppard, but high volume 40+% coming off screens and pin downs, quick release; way way better than Castle obviously

Advanced stats - Castle's are bad offensively especially against top 50 and top 100 compe ion; Sheppard's are elite. McCain is pretty good - 8.5 BPM is more than respectable for a sop re-aged freshman

College team - Sheppard was a top 2 player for an underachieving first round exit. Castle was a key starter for a dominant national champion. McCain by the end of the season was arguably the best player for an elite 8 team.

DAWG/40 - elite intangibles based on everything I've read about him; Castle is great and I've never heard anything bad about Sheppard, but McCain is definitely not worse than either of these two

Compe iveness - Sheppard had his worst game of the season and shrank in his one tournament game but had multiple good games against high compe ion; Castle played well throughout the tournament but his offensive numbers crater against any kind of decent compe ion. McCain consistently raised his game in the highest leverage situations

A few weeks ago I floated the idea of trying to get McCain and Tyler Smith with 8 and 35 through some combination of trading up and trading down if Castle was the pick at 4. In my opinion, this is still the way I would go if the spurs decide Castle is that guy. McCain provides the ball-handling necessary to serve as a dribble-pass-shoot cog, he's big enough to not get hunted easily, and he provides the elite shooting necessary as a spacer if you want to play a mediocre/bad shooter in your lineup. I am actually not sure why he is not high on Detroit's list as a trade-down candidate as his toughness, defense, and shooting pairs incredibly well with Cade, arguably even better than Sheppard.

Good stuff. McCain is one of a handful of prospects (along with Smith, and even Carter) who I think we are just not in the right range for. With that said, if there is an opportunity to move out of 8 for a proven player, I’m really eying PHX and NO as opportunities to move up into for McCain and Smith, if they make it that far.

What’s the high end of McCain’s range in your opinion? I would think 13 would be where he starts to come into play

[SpursBills]

Good stuff. McCain is one of a handful of prospects (along with Smith, and even Carter) who I think we are just not in the right range for. With that said, if there is an opportunity to move out of 8 for a proven player, I’m really eying PHX and NO as opportunities to move up into for McCain and Smith, if they make it that far.

What’s the high end of McCain’s range in your opinion? I would think 13 would be where he starts to come into play

I think he's actually perfect for OKC's dribble-pass-shoot system so I agree with you, probably around 12-13. He was a natural replacement for Monk if Sacramento had not resigned him since he's from California and was a desperately needed shooter. I was going to say trade down with Chicago for him from 8 to 11, pick up an asset, bundle that asset with 35 and maybe 1-2 seconds to move up to mid 20s and pick up Tyler Smith.

[mo7888]

Good stuff. McCain is one of a handful of prospects (along with Smith, and even Carter) who I think we are just not in the right range for. With that said, if there is an opportunity to move out of 8 for a proven player, I’m really eying PHX and NO as opportunities to move up into for McCain and Smith, if they make it that far.

What’s the high end of McCain’s range in your opinion? I would think 13 would be where he starts to come into play

I think McCain starts getting looks at #10 with Utah. I believe that's his ceiling.

[scottspurs]

Not always.

It was great the spurs tanked in 2023 and stayed in the bottom three. Imagine not having Wemby to build around now.

That team just sucked.

[offset formation]

They keep the pick if it’s in the lottery, regardless. You’re essentially trading them back the two second rounders they owe you if the FRP doesn’t convey.

Narrator: It won't convey

[FireMicoHalili]

Agreed and the more I look at it, this #1 for ATL appears to be a curse wrapped in a blessing as I've called it before. Still not thrilled because SA owns their next 3 FRPs and typically a #1 opens up a lot of options for the Hawks. I was kinda liking the status quo so I'm real resistant to any big shake ups for ATL. But in this case a 2024 #10, where the Hawks had the most natural probability to select, would be a better franchise value in ratio to skill/payscale.

Watching Hawks clog up on this in unwieldy bestowment is in stark contrast to Spurs experience landing the #1 pick just a year prior. 2023 #1 was as liberating for SA as 2024 #1 could be binding for ATL.

Still say it sucks ATL made a +9 improbable leap into the #1 slot just 1 season before Spurs own their next three selections because now, I mean, is that really going to happen again? Hawks hit #1 one year later and it would've been ours but now the plot line has already been used.

Will be interesting to see how this 24 #1 bears on ATLs W/L which dictates what the Hawks give SA barring trade (which I would almost certainly not do).

I understand Atlanta’s posturing of picking either Clingan or Risacher so they can extract more draft assets from the Spurs. So obvious they’re trying to gauge which prospect the Spurs value more so they can threaten to pick whomever it is, the problem is they don’t have any inkling. All the buzz just points to Atlanta being clueless and willing to trade down in a draft with no clear number one. SA highly likely doesn’t care since they can just go BPA. As smart as Fields is he’s still got a long way, and it’s clear he just wants his draft capital back but the Spurs aren’t biting.

[Ariel]

I think he's actually perfect for OKC's dribble-pass-shoot system so I agree with you, probably around 12-13. He was a natural replacement for Monk if Sacramento had not resigned him since he's from California and was a desperately needed shooter. I was going to say trade down with Chicago for him from 8 to 11, pick up an asset, bundle that asset with 35 and maybe 1-2 seconds to move up to mid 20s and pick up Tyler Smith.

On paper McCain is a player OKC should love but I have a hard time picturing him there when they already have Isaiah Joe, Cason Wallace and now Caruso (on top of SGA, JDubb, etc). Feels like they could use a physical front court player who can rebound (and, of course, shoot) but I'm not sure anyone is available that matches that description and I can see them moving the pick for a veteran or future draft capital. But I'd like both him and Tyler Smith for the Spurs.

[Mr. Body]

I understand Atlanta’s posturing of picking either Clingan or Risacher so they can extract more draft assets from the Spurs. So obvious they’re trying to gauge which prospect the Spurs value more so they can threaten to pick whomever it is, the problem is they don’t have any inkling. All the buzz just points to Atlanta being clueless and willing to trade down in a draft with no clear number one. SA highly likely doesn’t care since they can just go BPA. As smart as Fields is he’s still got a long way, and it’s clear he just wants his draft capital back but the as Spurs aren’t biting.

The player Atlanta actually wants is likely Clingan. I suppose. But they're probably okay with Houston grabbing and trading him, it seems.

Maybe they actually want Risacher of the two, but Clinton seems like the better pick and fit.

[mystargtr34]

My guess is Atlanta just goes Clingan at 1. Unless they can get like 2 future firsts from Memphis while swapping 1 and 9.

But yeah there’s too many permutations to even bother predicting what they do. It depends who they like the most in the top 10 then estimating where they think they can get that player.

[FireMicoHalili]

The player Atlanta actually wants is likely Clingan. I suppose. But they're probably okay with Houston grabbing and trading him, it seems.

Maybe they actually want Risacher of the two, but Clinton seems like the better pick and fit.

Their problem is range. They’re in a spot of leverage but no one’s budging. They have zero leverage against the Spurs and I doubt Risacher will move the needle substantially. All the rumors are probably emanating from the Hawks themselves and it’s sort of funny Fields thinks people aren’t seeing through their smokescreens.

It’s either they pick Clingan who might be a reach or Risacher who won’t do much for them given their glut at wing. The Spurs can comfortably just say no to any trade down scenarios unless ATL offers too good a package, and I’m not sure they have any other desirable assets which fits San Antonio’s timeline. Probably has to look for another trading partner who can offer assets befitting a number one pick, but that’s difficult to do in a weak draft.

Not sure how Fields optimizes value here, but it doesn’t make sense for the Spurs to engage.

One benefit is seeing which NBA media guys are just paid hacks. Obviously not doing their homework, dumbass sellswords lol

[exstatic]

I understand Atlanta’s posturing of picking either Clingan or Risacher so they can extract more draft assets from the Spurs. So obvious they’re trying to gauge which prospect the Spurs value more so they can threaten to pick whomever it is, the problem is they don’t have any inkling. All the buzz just points to Atlanta being clueless and willing to trade down in a draft with no clear number one. SA highly likely doesn’t care since they can just go BPA. As smart as Fields is he’s still got a long way, and it’s clear he just wants his draft capital back but the as Spurs aren’t biting.

Spurs don’t play that game. If there isn’t an agreement in advance, SA will just pick the remaining player they like best.

[FireMicoHalili]

Spurs don’t play that game. If there isn’t an agreement in advance, SA will just pick the remaining player they like best.

Exactly. It’s either some NBA media guys don’t see how absurd it is for the Spurs to package 4+8 for 1 in a weak draft or they’re getting paid to generate chatter. SA likely knows which guys they want prior. If ATL is trading no. 1 I highly doubt SA is a trade partner. Neither Young nor Murray fits the timeline and Pop has publicly said they aren’t rushing the process.

Jonathan Givony if you’re reading this I implore you to do better lol

[scott]

I'm obviously kidding here... but it's almost to a point where ATL has to pay us to swap 1 for 4

[BackHome]

In this draft I would hate to have the number 1 pick..

[FireMicoHalili]

In this draft I would hate to have the number 1 pick..

Specifically for the Hawks, yes. Sarr would be nice for any other team. The Hawks have a specific context. The Hawks can’t tear it down because they’ve mortgaged draft equity in favor of the Spurs, they can’t get their draft equity back because they have nothing the Spurs want, and the players they reportedly covet will either be a reach or a redundancy.

Noting Sarr has refused to work out for them, though they can still choose to go BPA and hope Sarr pans out like JJJ did for Memphis.

[Mr. Body]

I don't see why they don't canvas Detroit for Risacher or Memphis for Clingan, etc. I suppose they already have.

[Obstructed_View]

Because we do not know Washington would get second pick back then. We could have tanked much harder like Detroit and end up at 5.

Hindsight is 20-20. So now we know that Washington kept their pick. If we would have tanked too hard we would end up like Detroit. Or slightly less hard. End up like Charlotte.

At that point. We didn't know.

So for example. I could say we could have played harder to be rank 10th or whatever hawks pick was. So that we get first pick. Or whatever rockets were to get third pick.

But how do we know?

Exactly. The numbers are set, but only because it already happened.

We know exactly where teams would pick based on their record. The Spurs lost a coin toss to Houston last year. If they had won the coin toss, the Rockets would have Victor. The Spurs coincided with that one ping ping ball drawing in the draft because their record and position. If they'd finished higher or lower, they would not have moved up. If they had finished 14 games better, they would have gotten the first pick. The new rules make record so inconsequential that there isn't any point in whining about tanking.

[CGD]

If they keep 1, I don’t buy that ATL won’t take Sarr. Who cares that Sarr didn’t work out for them, or that Sarr really really really wants to go the WAS?

[FireMicoHalili]

If they keep 1, I don’t buy that ATL won’t take Sarr. Who cares that Sarr didn’t work out for them, or that Sarr really really really wants to go the WAS?

Seems they still end up doing that unless they find takers. JJJ is a good precedent for still going BPA in spite of his initial reluctance to join MEM.

[TeKu]

I love draft season, it's a crap shoot at the best of times and the top of this draft is far from the best of anything. I see Vecenie is starting his Big Board at Tier 3! With the cost/benefit of those early picks being so much weaker this year I'd be looking to trade out of #4 to someone who falls in love with Player A (there's always someone) and take our flyer on risky upside at the #8 lower salary slot. E.g, #4 to Charlotte for removal of protection on their 25 FRP owed, and Topic at #8 (who IMO has been their target from way back).

[BacktoBasics]

I love draft season, it's a crap shoot at the best of times and the top of this draft is far from the best of anything. I see Vecenie is starting his Big Board at Tier 3! With the cost/benefit of those early picks being so much weaker this year I'd be looking to trade out of #4 to someone who falls in love with Player A (there's always someone) and take our flyer on risky upside at the #8 lower salary slot. E.g, #4 to Charlotte for removal of protection on their 25 FRP owed, and Topic at #8 (who IMO has been their target from way back).

I’m not giving a 4th pick simply to remove protection on the charlotte pick.

Now if they want 4 for 6 and remove protection for a couple 2nds and something on the front of our roster I’m on board.

[rascal]

I’m not giving a 4th pick simply to remove protection on the charlotte pick.

Now if they want 4 for 6 and remove protection for a couple 2nds and something on the front of our roster I’m on board.

I would accept the Charlotte pick with removed protections for 4 if Castle is gone. Charlotte is not likely to make the playoffs next year so the Spurs will get an extra pick in the lottery in the deep 2025 draft.

[Mr. Body]

Getting kinda interesting. The only teams that seem, as of now, secure and happy where they are in the top 5 are:

Washington
San Antonio

The other of the five are making overtures that they'd trade down.

[scott]

Understanding that history is no foolproof look into the future, but about when did we start hearing buzz about Primo, Vassell, and Sochan? It feels like Sochan was a bit more telegraphed, and of course there was no surprises about drafting Wemby…

I remember on draft day there started to be chatter about Primo (even if folks were still hoping for Sengun at that point), but IIRC, Vassell kind of came out of nowhere, right?