Comprehensive Thoughts on San Antonio's Two Lottery Picks

[timvp]

https://www.spurstalk.com/thoughts-s...024-nba-draft/

[offset formation]

Good stuff. Predictions? Or is that another thread?

I agree the two fastest droppers are Topic and Dillingham. I wouldn't be shocked to see one of both go in the late teens to early 20s.

Disappointing draft is disappointing. And as others have noted that is often said, I think this year it rings especially true. I think the Spurs tend to shine in drafts like this though so ideally that bears out. Maybe 4, but especially 8 are likely to spend time in the G League and that seems quite uncommon for top twn picks.

[spurraider21]

thanks for the article. really bummed that dilly has fallen as much as he has.

for a while now ive said the disaster scenario is one where we whiff on risacher and both kentucky guards. based on the tea leaves, thats becoming more and more likely.

[DPG21920]

timvp I just want to know how likely it is SA moves up if it means securing 2 of Reed Castle Risacher?

[ginobilized]

Thanks for the deep thoughts!

One of Sarr, Risacher, Sheppard or Castle sounds pretty good at #4. #8 could be very interesting between the raw and flawed wings or a wildcard like Topic. Might be a record-setting number of draft day trades this year.

Wake me up when it's Thursday.

[PhantomDashCam]

Timvp is so far the only source I’ve found that states the Spurs worked out Cody Williams.
I think it’ll be him at #4 and Carter at #8.

[Dejounte]

Thanks for the deep thoughts!

One of Sarr, Risacher, Sheppard or Castle sounds pretty good at #4. #8 could be very interesting between the raw and flawed wings or a wildcard like Topic. Might be a record-setting number of draft day trades this year.

Wake me up when it's Thursday.

Wednesday…unless you’re on the other side of the world

[scott]

Thanks OP

[Spurs Homer]

I dont know why or if i am off…but there is ONE player that i feel really really unexcited AT ALL about….
i mean just meh…

and that is Castle
everyone seems to be so enamored of the spurs picking him at #4…
and i go back and watch more film….bleh

nothing…dude cant shoot, doesnt seem to be uber athletic, is not really a pg but seems to feel he can dictate that he IS a pg…

ill take dilly or sheppard - by A LOT over this guy….

i guess if the spurs get him i really hope i am proven wrong and he becomes an all star but i get no excitement watching him play.

[Mr. Body]

Stephon Castle is going to be like a vaccine for the measles or polio. People aren't going to even think about how we're not getting wrecked by high-scoring guards like we used to. And then they're still gonna say, "Stephon Castle?? What does this guy even do??"

[DPG21920]

And timvp I know you are busy cranking out articles and Imma let you finish but it pisses me off that you dont stick around to elaborate

[DPG21920]

Stephon Castle is going to be like a vaccine for the measles or polio. People aren't going to even think about how we're not getting wrecked by high-scoring guards like we used to. And then they're still gonna say, "Stephon Castle?? What does this guy even do??"

Im excited for him. Unlike so many others (maybe not here but on X) that seem so set on saddling Wemby with all defensive responsibilities and saying “who cares if they suck on defense we have Wemby!” I would prefer to make defense a real strength

Of course theres a balance and can have trash non-shooting lineups but I am looking forward to multiple good defenders. MINNY, Dallas, OKC and BOS all had great defensive depth especially at guard/wing and Spurs need that too. Of course like BOS having 4 guys who all defend at high levels and can all shoot and play point guard and create for themselves is wonderful but just something like that (which is what SA is clearly going for)

[scott]

Stephon Castle is going to be like a vaccine for the measles or polio. People aren't going to even think about how we're not getting wrecked by high-scoring guards like we used to. And then they're still gonna say, "Stephon Castle?? What does this guy even do??"

Not getting 50 bombs dropped on us?

That's not who we are

[DAF86]

Stephon Castle is going to be like a vaccine for the measles or polio. People aren't going to even think about how we're not getting wrecked by high-scoring guards like we used to. And then they're still gonna say, "Stephon Castle?? What does this guy even do??"

I hope you are right, but I really doubt that's the case, specially on his rookie season. Defense is the toughest skill to translate to the NBA, the folks you have to guard are immensely more skilled and there's a lot more space to cover. Castle wouldn't be the first defensive prospect coming out of college that would get humbled on the NBA, tbh.

And on the other side of the ball, it will be FUGLY with a capital FUDGE. The kid isn't even remotely close to developing a reliable jumper. Folks will be here freaking out about how bad Castle looks early on and asking for PATFO's head. The spacing will be so bad that the usual suspects will be here declaring doomsday and Wemby's trade demand.

I'm not saying it can't work on the long run, but I just don't see Castle being good early on, tbh.

[objective]

If Castle and Sochan are starting, that's going to be pure comedy seeing defenses create huge dead zones around them

[Mr. Body]

I hope you are right, but I really doubt that's the case, specially on his rookie season. Defense is the toughest skill to translate to the NBA, the folks you have to guard are immensely more skilled and there's a lot more space to cover. Castle wouldn't be the first defensive prospect coming out of college that would get humbled on the NBA, tbh.

And on the other side of the ball, it will be FUGLY with a capital FUDGE. The kid isn't even remotely close to developing a reliable jumper. Folks will be here freaking out about how bad Castle looks early on and asking for PATFO's head. The spacing will be so bad that the usual suspects will be here declaring doomsday and Wemby's trade demand.

I'm not saying it can't work on the long run, but I just don't see Castle being good early on, tbh.

Yeah. He's nineteen years old. He's going to be a rookie.

Here's a place where rules are selectively applied. Stephon Castle is treated like he's twenty-seven years old and a grizzled vet who is who he is. Whereas, dunno, the guys from his same high school class - which is everyone else - are given extensive room to grow into themselves and their games. Kid is nineteen. Of course he has to get used to things.

[DAF86]

If Castle and Sochan are starting, that's going to be pure comedy seeing defenses create huge dead zones around them

Wemby could literally see a regression in production if that happens. I see folks freely predicting a lineup of Tre, Vassell, Castle, Sochan and Wemby as if such lineup had any chance of working in today's NBA.

[DAF86]

Yeah. He's nineteen years old. He's going to be a rookie.

Here's a place where rules are selectively applied. Stephon Castle is treated like he's twenty-seven years old and a grizzled vet who is who he is. Whereas, dunno, the guys from his same high school class - which is everyone else - are given extensive room to grow into themselves and their games. Kid is nineteen. Of course he has to get used to things.

Well, your previous post made it seem like you were expecting Castle to make a difference fairly early on, that's why I replied, tbh.

[Chinook]

thanks for the article. really bummed that dilly has fallen as much as he has.

for a while now ive said the disaster scenario is one where we whiff on risacher and both kentucky guards. based on the tea leaves, thats becoming more and more likely.

It's hard to me to believe any player has risen or fallen all that much. If guys like Dilly and Holland are now thought of as late-lotto picks, they were likely always thought of that way by teams. If teams liked those players, they probably aren't freaking out about them not blowing up the combine or even if their workout didn't go well. It's unlikely that any FO has only experienced bad workouts leading to bad prospects. A team like the Spurs certainly shouldn't be caught flat-footed where they loved a guy for years only to dump him because he gave a bad interview. Add in that we don't even know what reports are even true, and I don't put much stock into any of this board movement.

But assuming it's true, I wonder if the Spurs will behave differently in their position. Let's just say that Dillingham, Holland or Collier is about to experience a slide similar to Murray in 2016. The Spurs scooped up DJM because they still had a high grade on him. But it's easy to make that argument when you have a late-first. Had the Spurs had, say, the 10th pick instead, would they have taken Murray? We may find out that the Spurs might have been telling the truth and snatch up a guy who would've fallen much further down otherwise. Or we might find that that talk is spin, and they'll pick someone mocked in their area of the draft and let the fallers go to later teams.

[DPG21920]

It's hard to me to believe any player has risen or fallen all that much. If guys like Dilly and Holland are now thought of as late-lotto picks, they were likely always thought of that way by teams. If teams liked those players, they probably aren't freaking out about them not blowing up the combine or even if their workout didn't go well. It's unlikely that any FO has only experienced bad workouts leading to bad prospects. A team like the Spurs certainly shouldn't be caught flat-footed where they loved a guy for years only to dump him because he gave a bad interview. Add in that we don't even know what reports are even true, and I don't put much stock into any of this board movement.

But assuming it's true, I wonder if the Spurs will behave differently in their position. Let's just say that Dillingham, Holland or Collier is about to experience a slide similar to Murray in 2016. The Spurs scooped up DJM because they still had a high grade on him. But it's easy to make that argument when you have a late-first. Had the Spurs had, say, the 10th pick instead, would they have taken Murray? We may find out that the Spurs might have been telling the truth and snatch up a guy who would've fallen much further down otherwise. Or we might find that that talk is spin, and they'll pick someone mocked in their area of the draft and let the fallers go to later teams.

This is sort of why I mocked so many “rookie wave” scenarios. I know it’s supposed to be a crappy draft but if we are to believe SA is higher on this than most, why couldn’t SA walk away with 3 guys in the first round of this draft if someone they really like falls and its cheaper than usual to trade up?

[Blizzardwizard]

Stephon Castle is going to be like a vaccine for the measles or polio. People aren't going to even think about how we're not getting wrecked by high-scoring guards like we used to. And then they're still gonna say, "Stephon Castle?? What does this guy even do??"

Yeah I think anyone discounting defense from the argument needs to go back and watch every defensive possession in the second-half of the Knicks home win on repeat.

Brunson scored 38 points in the half mostly from just walking past Tre Jones who offered as much resistance on the perimeter as most ST users would muster after 15 minutes of stretching. Wemby could do nothing as he was busy dealing with Hartenstein and Hart. It was the only reason that game was close in what would otherwise have been a blowout victory.

Don't see how you could watch that horrifying footage then want someone like Rob Dillingham as the lead PG and point-of-attack defender (who's the same height as Jones and at least 10 lbs lighter) over Castle. Especially after seeing maybe the league's best scorer become pretty useless in the finals because they were a non-factor defensively and getting targeted on every possession.

I'll take Castle's on-ball defense over Dillingham's shot-making because you can at least try and surround Castle with wing shooters to mask some of his floor-stretching deficiencies. Could even do it immediately with Dalton Knecht at pick 8 for example.

Conversely you could add the best wing-defender in the NBA to the Spurs tomorrow but it won't matter if your feature guard is being ass-blasted at the top of the key every time the other team brings it up the floor.

[spurraider21]

It's hard to me to believe any player has risen or fallen all that much. If guys like Dilly and Holland are now thought of as late-lotto picks, they were likely always thought of that way by teams. If teams liked those players, they probably aren't freaking out about them not blowing up the combine or even if their workout didn't go well. It's unlikely that any FO has only experienced bad workouts leading to bad prospects. A team like the Spurs certainly shouldn't be caught flat-footed where they loved a guy for years only to dump him because he gave a bad interview. Add in that we don't even know what reports are even true, and I don't put much stock into any of this board movement.

But assuming it's true, I wonder if the Spurs will behave differently in their position. Let's just say that Dillingham, Holland or Collier is about to experience a slide similar to Murray in 2016. The Spurs scooped up DJM because they still had a high grade on him. But it's easy to make that argument when you have a late-first. Had the Spurs had, say, the 10th pick instead, would they have taken Murray? We may find out that the Spurs might have been telling the truth and snatch up a guy who would've fallen much further down otherwise. Or we might find that that talk is spin, and they'll pick someone mocked in their area of the draft and let the fallers go to later teams.

yeah, i agree that players dont really "rise" and "fall" all that much (happens to some extent, but not dramatically), but rather the media comes in with their pre-conceived notions and over time adjust their mocks to reflect actual intel, which creates an illusion of players rising/falling when its just the media catching up to the teams

its almost like when results flow in on election day and one of the candidates is "behind by x votes and now has rallied to only be y votes behind" when in reality thats just the order in which the votes were counted, doesnt reflect anybody actually "leading" or "trailing" at any given time

so in this context when i say dilly has fallen... my amateur ass has him ranked 3rd in the draft, and a couple of months ago, that seemed to be somewhat in line with expectations. while i still have him that high, as more intel has come in, it now appears that teams havent been as fond of him as we had thought.

[DAF86]

Yeah I think anyone discounting defense from the argument needs to go back and watch every defensive possession in the second-half of the Knicks home win on repeat.

Brunson scored 38 points in the half mostly from just walking past Tre Jones who offered as much resistance on the perimeter as most ST users would muster after 15 minutes of stretching. Wemby could do nothing as he was busy dealing with Hartenstein and Hart. It was the only reason that game was close in what would otherwise have been a blowout victory.

Don't see how you could watch that horrifying footage then want someone like Rob Dillingham as the lead PG and point-of-attack defender (who's the same height as Jones and at least 10 lbs lighter) over Castle. Especially after seeing maybe the league's best scorer become pretty useless in the finals because they were a non-factor defensively and getting targeted on every possession.

I'll take Castle's on-ball defense over Dillingham's shot-making because you can at least try and surround Castle with wing shooters to mask some of his floor-stretching deficiencies. Could even do it immediately with Dalton Knecht at pick 8 for example.

Conversely you could add the best wing-defender in the NBA to the Spurs tomorrow but it won't matter if your feature guard is being ass-blasted at the top of the key every time the other team brings it up the floor.

How do you expect to do that with a core that heavily relies on players like Tre Jones and Jeremy Sochan?

[AFBlue]

Was digging the point where one of Sheppard, Castle, Risacher or Sarr will be available at 4, then you said you could see the Spurs taking Salaun, Williams, Holland or Buzelis even with one of those guys on the board...and I threw up in my mouth a little.

[Dejounte]

Was digging the point where one of Sheppard, Castle, Risacher or Sarr will be available at 4, then you said you could see the Spurs taking Salaun, Williams, Holland or Buzelis even with one of those guys on the board...and I threw up in my mouth a little.

Maybe it’s because draft pundits have never earned the reputation they carry for anyone to believe the prospects should be drafted according to the order they laid out… since time and time again they get it wrong. I will never understand people’s rigid thinking when it comes to teams having to draft the group of prospects they think are better than the rest.