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Dillingham may end up a better player, but probably not this year. Difference in age makes a big difference, which is why all these guys are drafted in upside.
Next year is the year the team starts to turn things around with next year's draft.
I expect another year of struggle and no playoffs, a 25 win team.
Spur fans are getting impatient because they aren't used to losing so many years in a row but this was going to be a slow rebuild even with Wemby.
Dillingham may end up a better player, but probably not this year. Difference in age makes a big difference, which is why all these guys are drafted in upside.
We have swaps with:
The Current NBA Champion (whose two stars will be 30 and 31 when the Swap is due)
The Current NBA Runner-Up (whose star will be 31 when the Swap is due)
The Current WC Runner-Up (whose star will be 28 when the Swap is due)
Maybe those teams will fall off a cliff by then? But I bet it's more likely they don't. My hope is that we're swapping pick 30 for pick 20 at that point.
From a team that will likely not be good in 6 years, and when the Spurs will be.
They’re positioning to be able to draft decent talent when Wemby is in his prime.
Dilly can score, but he’ll get eaten alive on defense. Despite the gloomers it’s probably the smart move in the long run.
Filipowski wasn't drafted in the 1st Round. Spurs would move up and take him early tomorrow. He and Zollins together would be the new Turd Towers and perfect for the 2025 tank tbh.
That's the precise way to value you. Yes, the swap really pays off in the extremely rare event that the team giving up the swap lands high in the lottery... yet our Swaps happen to be with the 3 current best teams in the league, all of whom will have stars still in their prime when the Swaps come due.
The odds appear rather long that those swaps will yield lottery balls... but yeah, anything can happen. It's typically not wise to place all your bets on long shots though.
Barring an injury to Wemby, the Spurs will be close to a .500 team next year, with a legitimate shot at making the playoffs.
They're all going to be facing big apron problems. I haven't looked at Boston but the others have leveraged all their future picks for the present. There are ways out, but the likely outcomes are what we see with GSW right now.
Yeah, I just don't see what they're thinking. Unless of course they think all those SRPs mean a thing.
Um...whut?
Great post thank you. these moves are promising and seem to imply SA thinks they'll be contending. Those FRPs and swaps will be like water in the desert when Wemby is contributing to wins. Remember in the Big 3 era Spurs always had #29s or so. Or you can trade the picks for established players.
MIN has some major problems. The money is not sustainable and even now they couldn't get past a flawed DAL team in the post season. Ant is a bad ass and I don't like betting against him as others have said. But six seasons is a long time away lol and MIN is a house of cards already with the jury still out on the double big configuration plus KAT is fools gold as a top 3 option and Ant is a bit of a knucklehead as talented as he is. You could say it's a good bet although I def hear the arguments that's it's a bad bet for sure.
SA was never going to take a Dilly type. Bad fit on the court and in the locker room imo. Dilly takes the ball out of Wemby's hands and he's a sugar rush of offense before the inevitable blood crash of poor defense sets in.
Was I "glooming?" lol
Branham averaged 9pts on 43%? You don’t think Dilly could top that his first year? I think some people in the front office and on this board seriously overrate the talent of the guys surrounding Wemby. There’s a reason this team is still horrible in spite of him
Or Wemby could be a laker by then
and he leaves because the Spurs traded away Dillingham?
Probably not that specific, no. He leaves because he has no faith the FO can or intends to help him
It isn't talent. It's age. Dillingham might put up more points where he gets more minutes and more shots.
The point is not to overrate the Spurs' current talent, but to caution you against overrating the contribution of a 19 year old.
He will leave because of this coaching staff long before that.
you mean the guy who said the concept of Las Vegas repulsed him and goes to bed at 8pm
although I do agree you def want to keep #1 happy
I 100% disagree though on the long shot bets thesis. A manufactured derivative asset with home-run upside value is exactly the type of asset necessary in today's NBA. With how much these finance analytics types guys value things, artifical notional value assets are extremely valuable, especially in an top heavy asset market. You need a top 15 guy to win an NBA championship and usually multiple. The longshot bets to grab them is worth more in an NBA market compared to a normal market considering how top heavy the NBA is. It's the whole reason why swaps are hot and worth way more than what Kram's article is alluding to.
Another way to look at it as that the teams that gave us the swaps manufactured as much value as possible to win the championship with their current cache of top 15 players, and they are willing to generate as much notional value from their assets as possible to keep their current window open. Our moves today are a clear indication that our window is not yet open from the FO's perspective and that we are in the market to add notional value rather than spend it. I understand if people here disagree and think our window is open and we should be cashing in, but I 100% disagree that from a value standpoint the trade was bad.
Not really. Look at a guy like Maxey. Huge jump from year 1 to year 2, averaging 18ppg. Not unreasonable to see Rob being that productive
I’ve watched Dilly all year. This guy is a legit scorer and will be dropping bombs on SA for years while PATFO is trading their 2030/31 picks for 2037/38 picks.
He’s a weak defender but he wouldn’t be the worst on the team by any stretch
yeah I mostly wanted Dilly (or someone at 8) just to challenge the in bents because I don't think guys like Zollins/Sochan (Salaun) or Wesley/Branham (Dilly) should be resting on their laurels.
Getting that second top 8 would light a fire under their asses in camp
Hope tomorrow we get Furphy to pressure Keldon/Champ as well as upgrade/replace roughly the role/duties of Doug/Osman
The inverse of Dilly is:
Castle can't shoot, but he’ll play good on defense.
ot sure why half the board spooged themselves on his selection.
Another unfortunate consideration is Wemby's health, that by his mid-20s we should be trying to lessen his load. Other than going hard in trades, the draft is the other possibility, and these Dal/Bos/Min teams could eke out a good player or two with these swaps that wouldn't have happened without them.
Fine to disagree. I'd say your approach places too heavy an emphasis upon landing the home run swings and undervalues what you can get from a role player. It's very much a Financial Derivative or even a DFS or Poker Tournament Game Theory kind of mindset where upon the goal is to finish first in a big pool to win the top prize, not to finish a third of the way in the money. That works in those sorts of environments because of the payout structure, but in the NBA you still need talented players to surround those Top 15 talents with. And in this case, the Spurs will already have one Top 15 talent by 2031, and they better already have their second star... otherwise we'll certainly have a disgruntled Wemby.
Long story short, I don't think winner-take-all game theory mentality makes sense or is smart in NBA roster construction, and that's what makes these long shot bets bad asset management.
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