There is Markannen to Spurs Buzz

[RC_Drunkford]

All true. Say nothing of the fact that he had one of the worst defensive ratings on the team with worst defensive rating last season.

He’s a good offensive player, but how many guys are we expecting Wemby to clean up for on the other side of the ball?

Markkanen is a 7-footer. All he has to do is funnel guys into the 7'5'' guy behind him and they will have no space at all to get a shot off inside the 3-point line. Besides that he's a good rebounder too.

[Seventyniner]

There are also some options to effectively trade down because they have so many FRPs.
For example, trading '26 ATL/SAS for '26 MIN/CLE would still have a lot of value for them.
Even if we end up with no FRP in '26 draft it's not the end of the world because we have 5 SRPs that year and could easily move up to mid-20s if we really like someone.

Swapping some firsts is an interesting idea. Diversify both teams' exposure.

Then you could see something like salary filler + 6 firsts to Utah for Markkanen and 2 firsts, for a net of 4 to Utah.

[LeBowen]

Swapping some firsts is an interesting idea. Diversify both teams' exposure.

Then you could see something like salary filler + 6 firsts to Utah for Markkanen and 2 firsts, for a net of 4 to Utah.

Exactly.
They have 4 FRPs in '27 draft.
Own, CLE, MIN, LAL (top4 prot).

We could do a MIN/ATL swap, giving them another trade-up. I think it's allowed to swap picks that aren't your own?

[vy65]

I think Scott was the one promoting the idea, but the MIN swap + 2031 pick should hold unique value to Utah as it'll enable them to own MIN's future. Not all 1st round picks are created equal; those assets should be valued higher than NYK picks that are set to be in the late 20's. I don't think it would be unreasonable to say a pick in the mid twenties is half as valuable as a mid-to-late lottery pick. Valuation has to be priced into a trade. It's not just about quan y; Quality matters.

1) SAS2025 + 2) S/ATL 2026 + 3) CHI and/or CHA should be roughly equivalent to the draft capital BKN received for Bridges.

[John B]

If Markannen is truly being shopped by Utah so they can tank into the lottery, will someone explain to me why Utah would insist on receiving a high caliber player in return. Doesn’t that defeat the tankathon approach? Seems they’d want high quality draft picks & lower level players in return. Also, seems to me Markannen has maximum control over this process since only he can agree to sign an extension.

High picks plus young good players. Rockets, Thunder, Magic all had young players with losing records until they started getting better. Keldon, Tre should be good pieces to throw in.

[Spurs Homer]

Utah will want Vassell on top of the picks. What’s the point of the trade in that case? They’ll just be replacing one gaping hole with another one. Spurs will still be better, but will have little chance to get roster improvements in the future.

Vassell is expendable and most here highly overrate him. I would rather keep sochan over vassell even with his broken shot - at least he has heart.

[scott]

How would you value our picks?

I'd say that '27 ATL and '26 ATL/SAS swap are easily the most valuable, I'd argue those two are more valuable than 4 FRPs Knicks traded for Bridges.
'25 ATL isn't as valuable as those with Trae still on the roster.
'25 SAS loses value if we trade it for Markkanen.
'27 and onwards SAS picks are hopefully well into 20s.
'25 CHI could convey because Bulls hate tanking and they shouldn't be top8 in both '26 and '27.

BOS and DAL swaps probably won't be great, maybe if DAL implodes.
MIN picks are a complete unknown, I can see them dropping out of contention by then because this is the best roster they can put together and 7 years is a long time to go.
I'd say those picks would be up there with ATL picks for Ainge, he wants to control MIN's future even more.

I'd say two MIN picks and CHI would be a guarantee, then I'd let them choose between one of those ATL picks or give them two SAS picks.

'25 CHI
'26 ATL/SAS
'27 ATL
'30 MIN/SAS
'31 MIN

I'd do those 5 picks only if they also take Collins. Even throw that fake CHA first in.
If they want Keldon, take away '25 CHI.
If they want Jeremy, '27 SAS instead of '27 ATL.

There are also some options to effectively trade down because they have so many FRPs.
For example, trading '26 ATL/SAS for '26 MIN/CLE would still have a lot of value for them.
Even if we end up with no FRP in '26 draft it's not the end of the world because we have 5 SRPs that year and could easily move up to mid-20s if we really like someone.

I like the way you've laid out the whole thing and provided almost a "menu" of options for Ainge to choose from.

I bolded this part because you could accomplish this via Swaps instead of trading picks, which would be better for the Spurs because it wouldn't implicate the Stepien rule for anything the Spurs may want to do in the future.

[scott]

Exactly.
They have 4 FRPs in '27 draft.
Own, CLE, MIN, LAL (top4 prot).

We could do a MIN/ATL swap, giving them another trade-up. I think it's allowed to swap picks that aren't your own?

You can't trade swaps of other teams that you've acquired, but you could do something like:

Rights to Swap the best of SA/ATL with the Worst (or third worst, or second best, or whatever you want) of UTA/CLE/MIN/LAL

[baseline bum]

I like the way you've laid out the whole thing and provided almost a "menu" of options for Ainge to choose from.

I bolded this part because you could accomplish this via Swaps instead of trading picks, which would be better for the Spurs because it wouldn't implicate the Stepien rule for anything the Spurs may want to do in the future.

They're fine on the Stepien Rule. I thought you couldn't trade your own pick in back to back years but the rule is really that you can't be without a first round pick in back to back years. So the Stepien Rule is immaterial unless you want to ship out picks in another trade after getting Markannen.

[scott]

I think Scott was the one promoting the idea, but the MIN swap + 2031 pick should hold unique value to Utah as it'll enable them to own MIN's future. Not all 1st round picks are created equal; those assets should be valued higher than NYK picks that are set to be in the late 20's. I don't think it would be unreasonable to say a pick in the mid twenties is half as valuable as a mid-to-late lottery pick. Valuation has to be priced into a trade. It's not just about quan y; Quality matters.

1) SAS2025 + 2) S/ATL 2026 + 3) CHI and/or CHA should be roughly equivalent to the draft capital BKN received for Bridges.

I think the only problem with SAS2025 is that you can reasonably value that pick in the 20s if the Spurs get Lauri, so it would hold less value.

I think the most valuable assets, to Ainge, would be, in this order (though I may need to think about it more)

SAS26 (with Atl Swap)
ATL27
MIN31
SAS30 (with MIN/DAL Swap)
SAS28 (with BOS Swap)

In theory, any FRP with a swap attached is naturally more valuable than a pick without a swap, because it doubles the upside of the pick through natural variance alone).

MIN31 and SAS30 might move to the top of the ranking because of the unique value proposition to Ainge. In my mind, those are the first two picks that go on the table from Ainge's POV and he probably doesn't do the deal without them.

[Joseph Kony]

How would you value our picks?

I'd say that '27 ATL and '26 ATL/SAS swap are easily the most valuable, I'd argue those two are more valuable than 4 FRPs Knicks traded for Bridges.
'25 ATL isn't as valuable as those with Trae still on the roster.
'25 SAS loses value if we trade it for Markkanen.
'27 and onwards SAS picks are hopefully well into 20s.
'25 CHI could convey because Bulls hate tanking and they shouldn't be top8 in both '26 and '27.

BOS and DAL swaps probably won't be great, maybe if DAL implodes.
MIN picks are a complete unknown, I can see them dropping out of contention by then because this is the best roster they can put together and 7 years is a long time to go.
I'd say those picks would be up there with ATL picks for Ainge, he wants to control MIN's future even more.

I'd say two MIN picks and CHI would be a guarantee, then I'd let them choose between one of those ATL picks or give them two SAS picks.

'25 CHI
'26 ATL/SAS
'27 ATL
'30 MIN/SAS
'31 MIN

I'd do those 5 picks only if they also take Collins. Even throw that fake CHA first in.
If they want Keldon, take away '25 CHI.
If they want Jeremy, '27 SAS instead of '27 ATL.

There are also some options to effectively trade down because they have so many FRPs.
For example, trading '26 ATL/SAS for '26 MIN/CLE would still have a lot of value for them.
Even if we end up with no FRP in '26 draft it's not the end of the world because we have 5 SRPs that year and could easily move up to mid-20s if we really like someone.

Great post tbh. Illustrates why people shouldnt act like sitting around and not making moves is the best strategy. SA could trade all the picks you listed (25 chi, 26 atl/sas, 27 atl, 30 min/sas, and 31 min) and still have first round picks in 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, etc.

[scott]

They're fine on the Stepien Rule. I thought you couldn't trade your own pick in back to back years but the rule is really that you can't be without a first round pick in back to back years. So the Stepien Rule is immaterial unless you want to ship out picks in another trade after getting Markannen.

I'm not talking about the Stepien rule after this trade... but how the Stepien rule on a future trade.

For example, if you do swaps (like what I suggest) you not only stay compliant with the rule on this trade, but it might allow you to do something else on a future trade and still stay in compliance.

Simplistic example: If we traded our 26 and took back their 26, then it locks you out of trading 25 and 27. But if you format it as a swap, you could still go trade 25 and 27 later.

[vy65]

I think the only problem with SAS2025 is that you can reasonably value that pick in the 20s if the Spurs get Lauri, so it would hold less value.

I think the most valuable assets, to Ainge, would be, in this order (though I may need to think about it more)

SAS26 (with Atl Swap)
ATL27
MIN31
SAS30 (with MIN/DAL Swap)
SAS28 (with BOS Swap)

In theory, any FRP with a swap attached is naturally more valuable than a pick without a swap, because it doubles the upside of the pick through natural variance alone).

MIN31 and SAS30 might move to the top of the ranking because of the unique value proposition to Ainge. In my mind, those are the first two picks that go on the table from Ainge's POV and he probably doesn't do the deal without them.

Exactly. So a package of 1) Keldon and/or Zollins 2) S/ATL26 3) MIN31 4) handful of seconds should roughly equate to what Brooklyn got. You could also throw in a SAS 29 or some other similar pick figured to be in the late 20's as well to equal it out.

At that point, you're talking about salary fodder + a roll of the dice to get Cameron Boozer + ownership of MIN's future for Mark. Why don't you entertain that for an asset that's diminishing in value by the day?

[LeBowen]

For clarity on what the GSW can offer for Markkaken, they owe WAS a top-20 pick in 2030.
As a result, the GSW only have access to trade up to two outright first-round picks from their pool of: 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028.
2029 and 2031 are locked.
They can't trade 4 outright firsts.

This is Siakam scenario all over again.

[scott]

Utah's war chest, specifically, also has gaps in the even number years (they have an abundance of picks in the odd years) which is why I think he best package for Ainge specifically would be SA26 + SA28 + SA30 + MIN31. Not saying we should be default cave to that, just saying that specific combo of picks is what fits Utah best (and coincidently has 4 of the 5 most valuable picks to them)

[baseline bum]

Simplistic example: If we traded our 26 and took back their 26, then it locks you out of trading 25 and 27. But if you format it as a swap, you could still go trade 25 and 27 later.

No it doesn't. You'd have a 26 pick, so you'd be fine trading both 25 picks and you could also trade both 27 picks as long as you don't trade the 28 pick.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

Any ing news today? Come on!!

Angie will drag as long as he can, until he cannot. It will be a couple of days before training camp.

[baseline bum]

How would you value our picks?

I'd say that '27 ATL and '26 ATL/SAS swap are easily the most valuable, I'd argue those two are more valuable than 4 FRPs Knicks traded for Bridges.
'25 ATL isn't as valuable as those with Trae still on the roster.
'25 SAS loses value if we trade it for Markkanen.
'27 and onwards SAS picks are hopefully well into 20s.
'25 CHI could convey because Bulls hate tanking and they shouldn't be top8 in both '26 and '27.

BOS and DAL swaps probably won't be great, maybe if DAL implodes.
MIN picks are a complete unknown, I can see them dropping out of contention by then because this is the best roster they can put together and 7 years is a long time to go.
I'd say those picks would be up there with ATL picks for Ainge, he wants to control MIN's future even more.

I'd say two MIN picks and CHI would be a guarantee, then I'd let them choose between one of those ATL picks or give them two SAS picks.

'25 CHI
'26 ATL/SAS
'27 ATL
'30 MIN/SAS
'31 MIN

I'd do those 5 picks only if they also take Collins. Even throw that fake CHA first in.
If they want Keldon, take away '25 CHI.
If they want Jeremy, '27 SAS instead of '27 ATL.

There are also some options to effectively trade down because they have so many FRPs.
For example, trading '26 ATL/SAS for '26 MIN/CLE would still have a lot of value for them.
Even if we end up with no FRP in '26 draft it's not the end of the world because we have 5 SRPs that year and could easily move up to mid-20s if we really like someone.

The 25 ATL is the most valuable pick to me because the first half of the lottery looks quite strong, you have a shot at Cooper Flagg or Nolan Traore, and because it's a year sooner than 26. From Utah's perspective I could definitely see the argument the 26 would be the best of our assets though because yeah Trae is probably gone that year and like it or not they're going to be in the AJ Dybantsa / Cameron Boozer sweepstakes for whoever is holding that pick at the time if Trae is out. Agreed on Sochan, the 27 pick gets downgraded to the Spurs pick then (don't think there is any way in Ainge will prefer Sochan to the better pick though). The 2030 pick is better than you indicated though since it would be a best of Spurs/Mavs/Wolves with top 1 protection on Mavs/Wolves. Six years from now is a long time and even though both of them are good now might be surprising if they're both still near the top of the conference then.

[scott]

What I'd do if I am the Spurs if the Salary cap allows (which it might not):

Spurs send:

Collins
Keldon
SA26 Swap (Utah gets best of SA/ATL/UTA/MIN/CLE/LAL, SA gets 3rd best of those picks)
SA28
SA30
MIN31

for

Lauri
John Collins

In a separate move:

Spurs send:

Devonte Graham to MIL
Some number of SRPs

for

Brooks Lopez (this is a pure cost cutting move for MIL)

Spurs 2024-25 PLAYOFF TEAM lineup:

CP3/Tre/Wesley
Devin/Branham/Vet Min from somewhere - Lonnie?
Castle/Sochan/Champagnie
Lauri/Collins/Mamu
Wemby/Lopez/Bassey

Castle would be nominal starting SF, but would have a lot of ball handling responsibilities, would have a lot of non-CP3 minutes, with plenty of opportunity to get that mentorship from CP3 and eventually be the starting PG next year. A year at SF with some Point Forward/PG duties allows him to ease into the NBA, show his defensive chops from the jump

I don't actually want John Collins - but I taking him helps Ainge out and allows us to send a 26 swap instead of a 26 outright pick (he has to take our Collins though). I don't love getting John Collins though because he has a player option in 25-26 that he probably excercises.

[vy65]

This is Siakam scenario all over again.

For context, the Raptors got 1) Bruce Brown 2) the 19th pick in the 2024 draft 3) the 29th pick in the 2024 draft and 4) Indy's 2026 1st round pick for Siakam.

I think Siakam is comparable, if not better, than Lauri. But you're talking about a role player and (likely) three non-lottery, mid-to-late 1st round picks for a player on an expiring.

Thinking that through, 2 lottery picks for Lauri could border an overpay.

[timtonymanu]

Oh a 27 page thread wishing and hoping for Markannen when we all know Champenny will be the 1st option SF we stick with. Can’t take minutes away from an obvious non nba level player.

[baseline bum]

What I'd do if I am the Spurs if the Salary cap allows (which it might not):

Spurs send:

Collins
Keldon
SA26 Swap (Utah gets best of SA/ATL/UTA/MIN/CLE/LAL, SA gets 3rd best of those picks)
SA28
SA30
MIN31

for

Lauri
John Collins

In a separate move:

Spurs send:

Devonte Graham to MIL
Some number of SRPs

for

Brooks Lopez (this is a pure cost cutting move for MIL)

Spurs 2024-25 PLAYOFF TEAM lineup:

CP3/Tre/Wesley
Devin/Branham/Vet Min from somewhere - Lonnie?
Castle/Sochan/Champagnie
Lauri/Collins/Mamu
Wemby/Lopez/Bassey

Castle would be nominal starting SF, but would have a lot of ball handling responsibilities, would have a lot of non-CP3 minutes, with plenty of opportunity to get that mentorship from CP3 and eventually be the starting PG next year. A year at SF with some Point Forward/PG duties allows him to ease into the NBA, show his defensive chops from the jump

I think Ainge would insist on the 26 pick with swap unless you're sending him a 25, and I don't want to send either 25 pick.

[scott]

Oh a 27 page thread wishing and hoping for Markannen when we all know Champenny will be the 1st option SF we stick with. Can’t take minutes away from an obvious non nba level player.

I agree with you and think there is a less than 3% chance we actually get Lauri... I think there is a less than 10% chance the Spurs are actually even trying to get Lauri...

But since this FO won't do anything, at least we can pretend.

[scott]

No it doesn't. You'd have a 26 pick, so you'd be fine trading both 25 picks and you could also trade both 27 picks as long as you don't trade the 28 pick.

I don't think you are understanding what I'm saying, but it's not really important so I'll just move on.

[Dejounte]

Angie will drag as long as he can, until he cannot. It will be a couple of days before training camp.

what the kkkk