There is Markannen to Spurs Buzz

[vy65]

Thinking this through, if you look at the Siakam and Bridges trades as comps, you have

Siakam for 1) role player 2) the 19th and 29th draft picks in a meh draft and 3) a pick likely in the 20's in 2026.
Bridges for 1) a bad role player 2) 4 picks likely to be in the 20's (for '25, '27, '29, and '31) and 3) two swaps ('28 and '25 (top-four protected)).

Most, if not all, of those picks figure to be in the 20's (NYK 20131 could be interesting).

[baseline bum]

I agree with you and think there is a less than 3% chance we actually get Lauri... I think there is a less than 10% chance the Spurs are actually even trying to get Lauri...

But since this FO won't do anything, at least we can pretend.

I think I'd put it at 20% chance they actually trade for Lauri, and a 99% chance they have talked with Ainge about it. Why would they not have when Markannen is on the block?

[LeBowen]

For context, the Raptors got 1) Bruce Brown 2) the 19th pick in the 2024 draft 3) the 29th pick in the 2024 draft and 4) Indy's 2026 1st round pick for Siakam.

I think Siakam is comparable, if not better, than Lauri. But you're talking about a role player and (likely) three non-lottery, mid-to-late 1st round picks for a player on an expiring.

Thinking that through, 2 lottery picks for Lauri could border an overpay.

I wasn't referring just to the trade, but the entire process.

Warriors were trying hard to get Siakam, reports kept coming in and they didn't offer enough, with another tough negotiator on the other side.
Too bad for that negotiator that he overplayed his cards and let it drag out all the way to the deadline because that package for Siakam was an absolute steal for Indiana.
Bruce Brown wasn't doing well there.

I'd agree that Siakam is a better first option, but if we're talking duos, Markkanen is a way better fit. Siakam's shot is never reliable in the playoffs.

Castle would be nominal starting SF, but would have a lot of ball handling responsibilities, would have a lot of non-CP3 minutes, with plenty of opportunity to get that mentorship from CP3 and eventually be the starting PG next year. A year at SF with some Point Forward/PG duties allows him to ease into the NBA, show his defensive chops from the jump

Your scenarios are similar to mine. That would be a good roster to start the season and then if Castle looks like an actual point guard, I'd trade Tre's expiring for a solid wing at the deadline.
Stagger CP3 and Castle, have one of them on the floor at all times.

Sidenote, but Fontecchio still hasn't signed, I actually think we could be in the running with him being a really poor man's Markkanen as a consolation prize.

I don't actually want John Collins - but I taking him helps Ainge out and allows us to send a 26 swap instead of a 26 outright pick (he has to take our Collins though). I don't love getting John Collins though because he has a player option in 25-26 that he probably excercises.

I actually think he got the short end of the stick in Utah.
He started at C, about as good of an experiment as point Sochan.
His shot seems to be back and I think he's still got some value.

His contract is an overpay, but I'm fine with any overpay contracts that end before Wemby's extension kicks in.

[exstatic]

The 25 ATL is the most valuable pick to me because the first half of the lottery looks quite strong, you have a shot at Cooper Flagg or Nolan Traore, and because it's a year sooner than 26. From Utah's perspective I could definitely see the argument the 26 would be the best of our assets though because yeah Trae is probably gone that year and like it or not they're going to be in the AJ Dybantsa / Cameron Boozer sweepstakes for whoever is holding that pick at the time if Trae is out. Agreed on Sochan, the 27 pick gets downgraded to the Spurs pick then (don't think there is any way in Ainge will prefer Sochan to the better pick though). The 2030 pick is better than you indicated though since it would be a best of Spurs/Mavs/Wolves with top 1 protection on Mavs/Wolves. Six years from now is a long time and even though both of them are good now might be surprising if they're both still near the top of the conference then.

The top 1 protection is only on the Wolves. Mavs part is unprotected.

[baseline bum]

The top 1 protection is only on the Wolves. Mavs part is unprotected.

Yeah you're right, I was getting it confused with the 2028 Boston swap that's top 1 protected.

[couchman]

I like LM a lot but in less the price looks really good I’m in favor of a patient approach. I’d rather get him halfway through the year than right now because I see this as a soft tank season.
A full season of LM would add at least 6 wins and could jeopardize our draft position.
25-26 is the season where we make win-now moves.

[scott]

I think I'd put it at 20% chance they actually trade for Lauri, and a 99% chance they have talked with Ainge about it. Why would they not have when Markannen is on the block?

That's not who we are. We can't skip any steps.

[LeBowen]

I like LM a lot but in less the price looks really good I’m in favor of a patient approach. I’d rather get him halfway through the year than right now because I see this as a soft tank season.
A full season of LM would add at least 6 wins and could jeopardize our draft position.
25-26 is the season where we make win-now moves.

We can't tank if Wemby is healthy and wants to win games. Which he obviously does.
There are like 8 tanking teams, with a handful more that are getting old and close to their expiry date.
How do you plan on tanking with Wemby averaging 25/12/5 with 5 blocks?
If he's healthy, we're at 35 win team. At that point it's irrelevant if we have 9th or 12th best odds in the lottery.

[baseline bum]

That's not who we are. We can't skip any steps.

Brian Wright has to have talked to Ainge about Markannen; I mean it's his job to be talking to every GM in the league. I hope he's not just browsing Pornhub for 3 hours and then having a three martini lunch every day or some .

[scott]

Brian Wright has to have talked to Ainge about Markannen; I mean it's his job to be talking to every GM in the league. I hope he's not just browsing Pornhub for 3 hours and then having a three martini lunch every day or some .

Probably in Saskatchewan playing golf with Primo saying "thanks for covering for me back on that therapist issue... could have been really bad for me if they kept asking why I didn't do about your episodes"

[vy65]

I like LM a lot but in less the price looks really good I’m in favor of a patient approach. I’d rather get him halfway through the year than right now because I see this as a soft tank season.
A full season of LM would add at least 6 wins and could jeopardize our draft position.
25-26 is the season where we make win-now moves.

I don't think people realize this, but what draft position?

Washington, Portland, Detroit, Chicago, Charlotte, Brooklyn, and Utah all will be absolutely worse than us. We're in a tier with Atlanta and Toronto, meaning we're facing a high probability of two picks outside the top-ten. If something happens to Phoenix, LAL/LAC, or GSW, that puts us in the late lottery. Who exactly are we tanking for at 12 and 15 in the 2025 draft that is going to put us over the hump?

[LeBowen]

I don't think people realize this, but what draft position?

Washington, Portland, Detroit, Chicago, Charlotte, Brooklyn, and Utah all will be absolutely worse than us. We're in a tier with Atlanta and Toronto, meaning we're facing a high probability of two picks outside the top-ten. If something happens to Phoenix, LAL/LAC, or GSW, that puts us in the late lottery. Who exactly are we tanking for at 12 and 15 in the 2025 draft that is going to put us over the hump?

And even if we find a future all-star in late lottery, which isn't that uncommon, it will take time for that player to develop.
Very few all-stars picked outside top5 come into the league ready. They're high risk, high upside players.
Do we really want to watch a young player trying to put it together for like 3 to 5 years while the pressure builds around Wemby to win a le already?

We'll still get those picks even if we trade for Markkanen.

[vy65]

And even if we find a future all-star in late lottery, which isn't that uncommon, it will take time for that player to develop.
Very few all-stars picked outside top5 come into the league ready. They're high risk, high upside players.
Do we really want to watch a young player trying to put it together for like 3 to 5 years while the pressure builds around Wemby to win a le already?

We'll still get those picks even if we trade for Markkanen.

Compounding this is a point Chinook has raised, which is that it takes time for our alpha to become an alpha. We saw it last year with Ant, but Wemby needs reps in the playoffs - and the sooner the better. There is a material difference between Wemby taking his lumps at age 21 vs. age 25.

[LeBowen]

Wemby needs reps in the playoffs - and the sooner the better.

This is the most important thing people leave out.
They think it's like playing 2K, you make some trades and the team is ready to go.

Every all-time great failed over and over again until they got over the hump.
We won't be able to magically go from 25 to 55 wins and WCF.
I'd argue that even making the play-in is worth more than moving a couple spots up in the lottery.

Good that you mentioned ANT, look at the team around him.
He had 36, 31 and 28 year old starters around him, it's not like he carried a team full of young players.

While Wemby might be ready, other young players won't.
SGA had great playoffs because he's got the experience, every single one of his teammates severely underperformed against Dallas.
It was their first playoff run. Coincidence?

[OldMan88]

Compounding this is a point Chinook has raised, which is that it takes time for our alpha to become an alpha. We saw it last year with Ant, but Wemby needs reps in the playoffs - and the sooner the better. There is a material difference between Wemby taking his lumps at age 21 vs. age 25.

True. Wemby needs playoff level experience ASAP, meaning I don’t see the Spurs tanking this year. Time to get in the habit of winning instead of being ok with losing. I remember the 1999 squad & how much that team hated to lose. Mario Ellie in particular would be sure everyone was as unhappy as he was.

[TD 21]

Compounding this is a point Chinook has raised, which is that it takes time for our alpha to become an alpha. We saw it last year with Ant, but Wemby needs reps in the playoffs - and the sooner the better. There is a material difference between Wemby taking his lumps at age 21 vs. age 25.

The difference is, "our" alpha is on the fast track to supers om (there's only five), while Edwards is in part a media creation because they want their next Captain America to sell to the masses.

James was the last player this good this young (honorable mention to Davis and Doncic). In his 2nd season, he was 2nd in VORP, BPM and 8th in WS/48.

[scott]

I'm also more than slightly concerned that we're entering this mid-way point where internal improvement and CP3 get us to a 35-win team that isn't good enough to make the playoffs and get that experience, but too good to really get the draft position to inject high-end talent. Then it put extra pressure on Wemby to carry the team to greater heights all on his own. This is very much what we did to DRob. We only built a team around him that was second round fodder, and then we relied on him to do the rest of the work. It took an MVP season for him to take us to the WCF. But look at the team we put around him. Avery Johnson, Vinny Del Negro, Jr Reid, Chuck Person.

Sean Elliott and Dennis Rodman were our only other above-replacement level guys on that team, and Rodman missed half the season. Why do we want to go through this again?

[Wilt Chamberlain]

This is the most important thing people leave out.
They think it's like playing 2K, you make some trades and the team is ready to go.

Every all-time great failed over and over again until they got over the hump.
We won't be able to magically go from 25 to 55 wins and WCF.
I'd argue that even making the play-in is worth more than moving a couple spots up in the lottery.

Good that you mentioned ANT, look at the team around him.
He had 36, 31 and 28 year old starters around him, it's not like he carried a team full of young players.

While Wemby might be ready, other young players won't.
SGA had great playoffs because he's got the experience, every single one of his teammates severely underperformed against Dallas.
It was their first playoff run. Coincidence?

Curious to see if Wemby is like Moses Malone was where he would tell young players where they are going wrong and how to fix it or if he will be more like a Kareem or Duncan who were much more aloof.

[vy65]

True. Wemby needs playoff level experience ASAP, meaning I don’t see the Spurs tanking this year. Time to get in the habit of winning instead of being ok with losing. I remember the 1999 squad & how much that team hated to lose. Mario Ellie in particular would be sure everyone was as unhappy as he was.

Then wtf are we doing? If you were right, we should have taken Knecht at 8 and not trade it away for a pick in Donald Trump's 4th term as president.

[vy65]

I'm also more than slightly concerned that we're entering this mid-way point where internal improvement and CP3 get us to a 35-win team that isn't good enough to make the playoffs and get that experience, but too good to really get the draft position to inject high-end talent. Then it put extra pressure on Wemby to carry the team to greater heights all on his own. This is very much what we did to DRob. We only built a team around him that was second round fodder, and then we relied on him to do the rest of the work. It took an MVP season for him to take us to the WCF. But look at the team we put around him. Avery Johnson, Vinny Del Negro, Jr Reid, Chuck Person.

Sean Elliott and Dennis Rodman were our only other above-replacement level guys on that team, and Rodman missed half the season. Why do we want to go through this again?

That's exactly where this is heading. Putting pencil to paper, what overall value is provided to the team's overall direction going 35-47, getting the 12th and 15th picks in the draft, and then heading into Wemby year3?

[scott]

That's exactly where this is heading. Putting pencil to paper, what overall value is provided to the team's overall direction going 35-47, getting the 12th and 15th picks in the draft, and then heading into Wemby year3?

The only possible upside scenario I can see here is if Castle shows some true superstar potential in doing this, and Vassell shows another leap but maybe has some kind of injury that take him out for a number of games and that's the reason we miss the playoffs.

Then, you'd feel pretty good headed into Wemby Year 3 and adding those mid FRPs.

But that's a very specific thread-the-needle scenario that is probably not worth banking on.

But hey, maybe we win 50 games this year because Wemby is him, Vassell takes a huge leap, Sochan learns to shoot, and Castle is a stud. I'm not counting on it... but I guess it's possible. And if that DOES happen... you still are probably kicking yourself that you didn't add a guy like Lauri to that.

[vy65]

The only possible upside scenario I can see here is if Castle shows some true superstar potential in doing this, and Vassell shows another leap but maybe has some kind of injury that take him out for a number of games and that's the reason we miss the playoffs.

Then, you'd feel pretty good headed into Wemby Year 3 and adding those mid FRPs.

But that's a very specific thread-the-needle scenario that is probably not worth banking on.

But hey, maybe we win 50 games this year because Wemby is him, Vassell takes a huge leap, Sochan learns to shoot, and Castle is a stud. I'm not counting on it... but I guess it's possible. And if that DOES happen... you still are probably kicking yourself that you didn't add a gu like Lauri to that.

This

[baseline bum]

Then wtf are we doing? If you were right, we should have taken Knecht at 8 and not trade it away for a pick in Donald Trump's 4th term as president.

I really want to believe they made that trade to make a run at Markannen knowing how much Ainge would value control of Minnesota's draft for two more years, but definitely nervous about projecting competency onto the front office.

[Wilt Chamberlain]

I really want to believe they made that trade to make a run at Markannen knowing how much Ainge would value control of Minnesota's draft for two more years, but definitely nervous about projecting competency onto the front office.

When have you guys been fleeced in trade?

[CGD]

When have you guys been fleeced in trade?

People around these parts are still traumatized by the Kawhi situation, even if they don’t admit it. In fairness those were dark times for the Spurs.