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Spurs fans want to tank in year 2 of Wemby. Cowards.
Not to toot my own horn, but an undercurrent in several threads has been the merits of "tanking" in 2025 to secure a top pick in the "Cooper Flagg" sweepstakes. So, that begs the question of, what are the chances that blowing the 2024-2025 season actually garners a Robin to Wemby's Batman.
As it stands right now, with much of free agency resolved, the following teams could be said to be "better" in the tanking sweepstakes:
1. Brooklyn
2. Utah
3. Washington
4. Detroit
5. Portland
6. Chicago
7. Charlotte
That leaves us in a tier with Toronto and Atlanta for 8, 9, and 10. And, that is to say nothing about injuries derailing the Clippers, Warriors, or Lakers, making them fall into the remaining three slots of the top-ten. At its most charitable, meaning not even accounting for any of these possible risks, that leaves:
8. S/ATL
9. S/ATL
10. Toronto.
Assuming that scenario to be the most likely outcome, our 2025 odds would be as follows:
#8
Pick: (1) (2) (3) (4) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (Avg)
Odds: 6.0 6.3 6.7 7.2 34.5 32.1 6.7 0.4. >0.0 7.0
#9
Pick: (1) (2) (3) (4) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (Avg)
Odds: 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.7 50.7 25.9 3.0. 0.1 >0.0 8.0
Those are the odds. 6% and 4.5% respectively. I know it's too early to tell, but just going off of Tankathon, the projected #7 and #8 picks (assuming the averages hold out) are Khaman Maluch and Tre Johnson. Are either of those two vaunting us into contention at the start of 2025-2026? Tankathon has us taking Liam McNeely at 9 and Egor Demin at 10. Again, who here wants to articulate how any (or a combination) of these 4 will vaunt us into perennial le contention within the next 3-5 years?
Again, I understand it's too early to tell. But it's not too early to evaluate the team's strategy going into the 2024-2025 season. There has been no meaningful move to get us into the top 5 worse teams (e.g., trade Vassell/Sochan/Keldon for future draft capital). By all appearances, they're trying to improve by drafting Castle and signing CP3. So, again, what is it that we're doing as we head into next season?
I get that there is a lot of prognostication in this exercise, and that there is a meaningful chance this thread is thrown around next year as proof that "the tank worked." But there is a greater probability that these numbers hold out, and we're looking at two people no one has ever heard of as being the help Wemby needs. So again, who are we tanking for?
Last edited by vy65; 07-03-2024 at 06:31 PM.
Spurs fans want to tank in year 2 of Wemby. Cowards.
Indeed. For as deep as next year's class seems to have the potential to be - has there ever been a draft class 10 players deep? I know that you can find HOFs anywhere in the draft... but then luck and scouting exceptionalism come into play. I can't recall any draft that had 10 guys who were "obvious" picks.
You are tanking for the #2, ideally a wing. The Jason Tatum to the Jaylon Brown.
You hope Castle exceeds your wildest expectations, but everyone else on the current roster, except for Devin (a good #3), is a role player. I love Devin, but eventually he’ll move on too.
Your schtick gets old. Do you yell at your wife if dinner is 10 minutes late? They said they were going to focus on the 2025 draft at the end of last year. An unwarranted sense of urgency is how you make bad trades. Ask Atlanta. Better yet go root for Atlanta and spare us your mantra.
Who is the #2? Please tell me their name, and what the front office is doing to maximize the possibility of landing them.
Otherwise, the strategy you've articulated is the same as the guy who does a bunch of blow and throws 10k on red at the roulette table.
Not so much tanking, but taking stock of where you are by Feb and choosing a path. The west is gonna be good again, so even if the spurs try their very best, they may not be near the top. Alternatively, if they exceed expectations, it’s at that point that a “go for it” trade might make sense.
It's the Spurs fan copium for when we are a terrible team again next season. Then we will trade our 2025 lottery pick for the 2044 NBA draft FRP.
This is a boomer response. "Stop complaining" isn't meaningful. It's you trying to be heard while having nothing to say. Do better.
I mean, yeah, you just described the draft. There are no sure things. Even a Wemby or LBJ or Duncan can get hurt. Just ask Portland.
When you suck, you want as many chances at it. We still suck, sorry to break it to you.
If there is a sure fire no1 star, I trust our luck to pick first again. (as long, as one of the picks ends up in the lottery)
Ah, I see this is a back door Laurie Markenen thread. Shame on me for taking the bait.
We do suck, but not enough for it to matter. Sorry to break it to you.
Please. 1. I stated they indicated 2025 was their plan all along. 2. I stated unwarranted urgency is how you make bad trades. You are the one whining like a little . Who needs to do better? Maybe you can just delay your response until 2031..
We tanked to have the privilege of throwing away the #8 pick!
Or they could add talent now in an effort to get the best chance at a playoff series and the experience.
Both conferences are top heavy but there are soft middles as well.
The OP's justification is he doesn't understand what they are doing as his excuse. You guys are planning scared.
I think the most important thing to consider is the odds of moving into the top 4. Your ninth worst record for the Spurs projection seems pretty reasonable without any major moves, which gives you a 20.2% chance of advancing to the high end talent of Flagg, Ace Bailey, Nolan Traore, and Dylan Harper (of course that'll change but guys like Gonazles and Edgecombe look like they have the chance to become the level of prospect those four are projected at now). So yeah that's way too low of odds of advancing to advocate for a soft tank at the expense of a Markannen trade. At the same time I really don't want to move Atlanta's 2025 nor the Spurs 2025, mainly because this team needs talent ASAP and the Spurs 2026 pick with an unprotected Atlanta swap and the Atlanta unprotected 2027 pick are good enough to be the centerpiece of a trade for Markannen since Trae is probably on the way out of Atlanta next summer. Especially factoring in the 2030 Spurs and 2031 Minnesota are picks that will have huge value for Ainge while the meat of their value came from the Dillingham trade so was cheap for the Spurs to acquire. I think those four and salary ballast to make the trade work are a great return for Ainge if he is looking to tank, so the Spurs can probably get it done with those assets if they're not on the re soft tank train.
Are you worried that Wemby is fool's gold to build around like Trae turned out to be?
2003 will finish with 4 Hall of Famers, and 9 total All-Stars and a long list of starters and rotation players. I don’t want to tank (I want ATL’s pick to jump to top 4), but our roster is very bare. We need to trade or add someone from free agency (like LM), but also fill the gaps from the next 2 drafts. Liam McNeeley would fill a gap perfectly and we wouldn’t need to tank for him. But adding Ace Bailey or Flagg, or any number of “lottery winning” picks could make us unstoppable (in conjunction with trade/FA)
Waiting to add LM in summer of 2025 would be ideal (in my opinion), but if we trade for him, we need to keep our ‘25 & ‘26 draft picks to fill our gaps.
Two things can be true: Wemby is legit and Wemby is not yet ready to take the leap at Year 2.
Watching the France game today, for example, it was a reminder that he still needs to build out his body (even though he crushed a bad Turkish side).
I don't give a flying as to what the stated plan is. The whole point of this thread is to look at what they're doing to execute on said plan. But keep it up with the boomerish "little " bull . It's clear you have absolutely nothing to say.
Don't disagree at all, and I actually want us to get LM without giving up our 2025 picks (even if they ended up #11 and #20, for example). Utah actually has 3 FRPs in 2025 already, so we are lucky in that they likely prioritize other picks anyway.
The 4 picks I'd offer them are: SA26 (w/ ATL swap), SA28 (with BOS swap), SA30 (with MIN/DAL swap), MIN31. I'd actually try and make 26 a swap if we could (I detailed in the LM thread).
Landing LM and adding two pieces in the 2025 draft is having our cake and eating it too.
All you are saying is that you do not understand and using that as an excuse to be a coward.
I'm not a stats guy, but can you say that we have a ~23.2% (add up the chances for each set of top 4 and divide by 2) chance of a top four pick, assuming we and ATL end up 9/10? What gets me about the "soft tank" is how the flattened odds would cut us out from picks 5-8, where there is going to be particular good value in this draft. We're going all or nothing on a 1 in 5 chance for Wemby's future. That's not inspiring at all.
So would you consider 27 ATL off limits as a replacement for the 28+swap? I'd definitely offer your plan first but would pivot to my proposal if needed.
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