I don't know that they need to bottom out, honestly. Flattened lottery odds, and they can dump some other players. I think more importantly they need to get their coach on the same page lol.Thanks for putting in the work for us and listening to Locked On Jazz.
I don't think any player, aside from maybe some French national with a connection to Wemby, is ever going to do a Dame move and request a trade to ONLY us.
Lauri does seem like the kind of guy to be willing to suck it up, suffer through another tank, and stay loyal to a team like Utah. I just still can't understand why this makes sense for the Jazz. They really need to bottom out unless they are hoping they'll land their #1 (Lauri is not a #1, I agree with that - but he is an ideal #2) by aggregating promising young players and draft picks. But let's be honest... true #1s are getting traded or moving around, aside from Durant. All the other disgruntled superstar trades have been for #2 or AT BEST #1b type of guys (Dame, Mitc , Gobert, Harden, Kyrie, Bridges, PG, Siakam, OG, etc).
The only TRUE #1 players who moved that I can think of are KD, AD and Kawhi. But I don't see Luka, Ant, Giannis, Embiid, Jokic, Wemby, Shai, Tatum or Steph (my list of true #1 stars in the NBA) asking for a trade anytime soon... and it ain't gonna be to ing Utah
Slightly on topic, the Ringer updated their list of the Top 100 players - https://nbarankings.theringer.com/
Of Note to the Spurs and things talked about:
Wemby up to #17. I think he'll be Top 10 by Dec 31, and maybe Top 5 by end of next season.
Devin is #74.
Austin Reaves is #76 (threw this one in for fun)>
Lauri is #28.
Derrick White is #37, sandwiched in between Trae Young (36) and James Harden (38). So proud of our prince.
Meh, it's the same argument that was talked about with the Demar and DJM Spurs. Sure, with some lucky lotto luck those 11 (Vassell), 12 (Primo), 9 (Sochan) picks could have been #1 picks (Ant, Cade, Paolo)... but that's using hope as a strategy. Specifically with the strength of the 2025 draft, it makes a lot of sense for Utah to bottom out this year. Going to be hard to do that unless they severely throttle Lauri's games again.
fwiw the 2030 pick that the Warriors owe to the Wizards is protected 1-20. The Warriors can trade the 1-20 portion of that pick to the Jazz, a form of reverse protection, without having to negotiate with the Wizards at all.
But there's middle ground between the bottom 4 and the top 4 in the lottery where the odds aren't as good, but they're also not insignificant and you get to keep the guy who's already a #2. We can laude the Spurs bottoming out all we want but that's simply because of that hope you mention. We got incredibly Lucky to get Wemby, but if we hadn't, we'd be easily on course for yet another year of bottoming out and that has serious ramifications for the franchise.
The Jazz can be in the bottom 1/4 of records without getting rid of their most talented guy. They should get rid of others like Clarkson to do that and make sure Hardy stops shooting their plans in the foot.
The point is that Utah hasn't been bad enough to be in that middle ground. They've had the 9 pick and 10 pick in consecutive drafts. There's going to be some hard tankers this upcoming season, and Utah is basically running back the same team that's landed at 9 and 10. That's about where I'd project them again this coming year (though Tankathon currently has them ranked 4th worst). Personally I'd put BKN, WAS, CHI, DET, POR, TOR, and maybe CHA all below them, slotting UTA 7th. Of course anything can happen, but seems like it's in Utah's best interest to bottom out here. Personally, I'd hate to finish 7th, 6 games ahead of having a Bottom-4 record, in next year's class.
Interesting side note: 6 of the 8 worst teams in Tankathon's current projections (BKN, WAS, DET, UTA, CHA, POR, CHI, TOR) all have picks they are protecting, all are protected 1-10 or better (some are Top 13 or Top 14).
Yes, they got incredibly lucky because the Top Prize required getting down to Bottom 4 to have a 14% chance. This year's Top Prize is probably 3-5 players deep, so you can do yourself a lot of favors by maximizing your odds there.We can laude the Spurs bottoming out all we want but that's simply because of that hope you mention. We got incredibly Lucky to get Wemby, but if we hadn't, we'd be easily on course for yet another year of bottoming out and that has serious ramifications for the franchise.
The Jazz can be in the bottom 1/4 of records without getting rid of their most talented guy. They should get rid of others like Clarkson to do that and make sure Hardy stops shooting their plans in the foot.
If you believe the 2025 class to be 5-deep for a franchise player, you give yourself a 100% chance of finishing in-the-money with the worst record. 80% chance with the second worst record, 67% chance with the third worst, and so on. Seventh worst, when I currently project Utah (which is up for debate) is only a 32% chance to finish in the money.
This is the basis for my belief that Utah should bottom out, not to mention that Lauri's timeline doesn't fit. Wemby is special, so a 27-year old Lauri fits his timeline. But it's going to take Cooper Flagg or Ace Bailey or whoever 3 years to be ready, at which time Lauri will be 30.
This is pure smoke from Ainge.
After leaking the "aggressive offer" or "substantial offer" by Warrior and Kings, this is the only smoke left.
Spurs won't bulge, because that already made an offer that one one can or (is willing) beat.
Lauri will be a spur before training camp. Book it guys.
Ainge would be dumb to hold onto Lauri. Jazz are currently stuck in NBA Purgatory like the Spurs were 2 years ago before trading Dejounte. They desperately need to rebuild and should absolutely tank this season for a stacked 2025 Draft Class, but can't do so with Lauri on the roster. Holding onto him and risking him getting injured or not playing well this season and losing value would be unwise. Lauri's value will never be higher than it is right now. Ainge is just being a stubborn ass as usual, which he has every right to be as their GM. But holding not his out of pride would be foolish in the long run.
somebody pointed out that ainge isnt actually the GM for Utah but everybody (including myself) still assumes he runs the show
Markkanen will be moved, just a matter of when and for what. The '25 draft class is too loaded and Lauri keeps the Jazz okay enough to keep them out of the top 5. Ainge & Co. aren't stupid tbh.
Yeah, I've been trying to use Ainge/Zanik as much as possible, or AATFO (but don't want people think think its a PATFO typo - though I mistakenly write PAFTO all the time)
I do think it's more likely at this point than not..
Not sure about that, but if he doesn’t extend, he’ll be gone by the trade deadline.
I don't see him making it to the opening night if he doesn't extend.
The offers will keep getting worse since it will be obvious he's not extending, no desperate contender has enough assets and tanking teams won't care mid-season.
Obviously we can't know what are the actual offers Ainge has on the table, but I don't think they'll get any better.
Ainge can easily overplay his cards and look like an idiot yet again.
Yeah, I think there is a decent chance we see movement as soon as this week as teams like the Kings and maybe the Warriors drop out of the race. Ainge will see the momentum moving that way and not want to lose anything from the offer(s) he currently has. This Locked on Jazz "news" might be his last public effort to hold on to some leverage.
OR... maybe they just extend. It's not what I would do if I were AATFO, but they get paid to do this and I don't.
Ange is a giant who will drag this out as long as possible, just because he can,
Obviously, but he probably learned his lesson and understands his position gets worse with each passing day without an extension after August 6th.
Honestly it's getting worse with each passing day now, as teams decide they're not going to around and wait for Ainge. SAC has already moved on, if GSW moves on then Ainge might find that he played himself.
Actually, I think it has to be ON August 6th to skirt the 6 month trade moratorium on the day of the trade deadline.
There's no buzz never was just made up stuff by media n yall spent 54 pgs guzzling it
Exactly. I get being stubborn as a GM but in this particular situation, Ainge and Co. might overplay their hand and wind up getting a much smaller return than they could've gotten had they traded him last week. If he's waiting for a Bridges-like package of 5 FRP's + a player, he's likely going to play himself.
No doubt he's at least highly involved in the decision-making process. Their GM Justin Zanik comes from within the organization so I imagine he's probably pretty subservient to Ainge when it comes to major trades like this.
One minor request of the Lauri Gang:
If we get Lauri (which we won't, like I've been saying...), can we all huddle up in a group chat to collectively decide on his thread le?
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