2025 NBA Draft

[heyheymymy]

Because it’s never too early, Tankathon has their 2025 board up already…

https://www.tankathon.com/mock_draft

haha just went there today to look at 2024 stuff again and saw 2025 already loaded up like it's just one rabbit hole right into the next

draft is a uva drug

[Mr. Body]

Someone screen shot the mocks. We can track how wildly wrong they are.

[LeBowen]

I've got no clue about any of these players except the few most hyped prospects, the only thing I know is that I hope we get a legit wing.
If Castle is legit, we're done with guards and we obviously don't need another big.

[CGD]

Someone screen shot the mocks. We can track how wildly wrong they are.

Yeah, I wonder who the Isiah Collier of 2025 will be.

[scott]

This will be a fun project:

Tankathon July 9, 2024

[scott]

One thing that important to note as we go on Tank Watch:

Among the teams projected to be the worst this upcoming season, 6 of them have picks to protect:

WAS (Top 10 Protected owed to NYK)
DET (Top 13 Protected owed to NYK)
UTA (Top 10 Protected owed to OKC)
CHA (Top 14 Protected owned to SAS)
POR (Top 14 Protected owed to CHI)
CHI (Top 10 Protected owed to SAS)

We also have SAC, who Tankathon projects as a Play-In Loser in the Lottery, with a Top 12 protected pick owed to ATL

That also gives a little bit of insight as to the quality of some of the picks in certain teams warchest. Fortunately for the Spurs, these are the two "worst" picks that we own, but NYK and OKC have a lot like this.

Of the picks OKC and NYK have incoming, none appear to be unprotected. SAS, UTA and HOU are the teams that have a stash of unprotected picks incoming (BKN traded all of theirs to HOU to get their own picks back). There are a few others out there, but those are the three teams with the heftiest stashes.

[Knoxxx]

Based on the current Tankathon seedings, I typically pull a top 4 pick for SAS about 40% of the time. Sometimes it even comes up Spurs picking 1 and 2. Via ATL or vice versa. To me ATL looks like a bad team in 2024-5. Seems like it is essential to keep these two lotto tickets. We or ATL could be worse than the 9-10th worst teams as per current projections. If we got the 2 instead of the 1, Ace Bailey probably warrants tanking for too. Either Wemby or Trae Young missing any significant time would likely put either team in contention for a bottom 5 record and stronger lotto odds.

[RC_Drunkford]

I'd definitely want an SF out of this draft. I'd be fine with someone like Egon Demin. There should be future All-Star players available in the 10-15 range with how good this draft is.

[Ariel]

Based on the current Tankathon seedings, I typically pull a top 4 pick for SAS about 40% of the time. Sometimes it even comes up Spurs picking 1 and 2. Via ATL or vice versa. To me ATL looks like a bad team in 2024-5. Seems like it is essential to keep these two lotto tickets. We or ATL could be worse than the 9-10th worst teams as per current projections. If we got the 2 instead of the 1, Ace Bailey probably warrants tanking for too. Either Wemby or Trae Young missing any significant time would likely put either team in contention for a bottom 5 record and stronger lotto odds.

Yeah, I already posted the complete breakdown of the chances Spurs get a top 4 pick via their own pick or Atlanta's.

These are the odds of landing AT LEAST one top 4 pick (maybe 2) for every possible combination between Spurs' own pick and Atlanta's (in yellow the range you specified):

Tankathon currently has Spurs and Atlanta at 9 & 10 respectively, that's a 32.14% chance, roughly 1 in 3... and a Trae Young ankle sprain from improving those odds.

[Ariel]

I'd definitely want an SF out of this draft. I'd be fine with someone like Egon Demin. There should be future All-Star players available in the 10-15 range with how good this draft is.

Haven't watched them so I won't give names, but yeah, a big wing would be perfect.

[JPB]

=stnick2261

If we can get in the 8-12 range, as well as ATL and CHI (11-12)... we either get lucky with ping pong balls, or finally combine those picks, 2nd rounders and future firsts to move up into the top 5 to get Wemby's #2.

we have enough assets to trade to move us up significantly in the draft.

If there's potential Hofers in the top 5, teams won't trade that pick (that's litterally why they'll tank next season for that supposedly high quality draft on top) or at a very hefty price spurs fans won't like.

[TrainOfThought5]

If there's potential Hofers in the top 5, teams won't trade that pick (that's litterally why they'll tank next season for that supposedly high quality draft on top) or at a very hefty price spurs fans won't like.

we have to consolidate at some point. Consolidating for HOFer on Rookie scale contracts to mold into Spurs culture is the way to do it versus trading for expensive aging vets with bad habits and Diva at udes.

[exstatic]

Based on the current Tankathon seedings, I typically pull a top 4 pick for SAS about 40% of the time. Sometimes it even comes up Spurs picking 1 and 2. Via ATL or vice versa. To me ATL looks like a bad team in 2024-5. Seems like it is essential to keep these two lotto tickets. We or ATL could be worse than the 9-10th worst teams as per current projections. If we got the 2 instead of the 1, Ace Bailey probably warrants tanking for too. Either Wemby or Trae Young missing any significant time would likely put either team in contention for a bottom 5 record and stronger lotto odds.

I think people don’t understand how hard it is to stop a backwards slide once it starts. ATL went from ECF to first round out for two years, to missing the playoffs. They’re offloading assets with basically little or no return: John Collin’s, Huerter, DJ. They’re going to suck this year.

[exstatic]

One thing that important to note as we go on Tank Watch:

Among the teams projected to be the worst this upcoming season, 6 of them have picks to protect:

WAS (Top 10 Protected owed to NYK)
DET (Top 13 Protected owed to NYK)
UTA (Top 10 Protected owed to OKC)
CHA (Top 14 Protected owned to SAS)
POR (Top 14 Protected owed to CHI)
CHI (Top 10 Protected owed to SAS)

We also have SAC, who Tankathon projects as a Play-In Loser in the Lottery, with a Top 12 protected pick owed to ATL

That also gives a little bit of insight as to the quality of some of the picks in certain teams warchest. Fortunately for the Spurs, these are the two "worst" picks that we own, but NYK and OKC have a lot like this.

Of the picks OKC and NYK have incoming, none appear to be unprotected. SAS, UTA and HOU are the teams that have a stash of unprotected picks incoming (BKN traded all of theirs to HOU to get their own picks back). There are a few others out there, but those are the three teams with the heftiest stashes.

Our stash is awesome. Three unprotected FRPs. Two unprotected swaps. Two swaps protected only for pick #1.

One interesting thing is that SA seems to be integrating vertically. We have a lot of the years covered with unprotected picks/swaps, but now they’ve doubled up in 2030 with Minny swap protected #1 and a Dallas unprotected swap, basically a best of 3 pick, barring Minnesota winning the lottery.

[Guru of Nothing]

Believe!

[Knoxxx]

I think people don’t understand how hard it is to stop a backwards slide once it starts. ATL went from ECF to first round out for two years, to missing the playoffs. They’re offloading assets with basically little or no return: John Collin’s, Huerter, DJ. They’re going to suck this year.

Well I do think ATL has a better chance to be a bottom feeder than us in 2024-2025.

[stnick2261]

Believe!

Stephon Castle
Devin Vassell
Ace Bailey
Cooper Flagg
Victor Wembanyama

we might get a winning record with that lineup

[heyheymymy]

lol also love how DET fell out of the top 4 again

[JPB]

we have to consolidate at some point. Consolidating for HOFer on Rookie scale contracts to mold into Spurs culture is the way to do it versus trading for expensive aging vets with bad habits and Diva at udes.

Sure, but why would teams trade their potential Hofers on rookie scales? That's my point, the price would be INSANELY high. If you can pick a future franchise player,, you don't rtade the pick for 2 firsts and 2 secounds, specially that those firsts aren't probbly gonna be top 5, if top 10.

[rascal]

Based on the current Tankathon seedings, I typically pull a top 4 pick for SAS about 40% of the time. Sometimes it even comes up Spurs picking 1 and 2. Via ATL or vice versa. To me ATL looks like a bad team in 2024-5. Seems like it is essential to keep these two lotto tickets. We or ATL could be worse than the 9-10th worst teams as per current projections. If we got the 2 instead of the 1, Ace Bailey probably warrants tanking for too. Either Wemby or Trae Young missing any significant time would likely put either team in contention for a bottom 5 record and stronger lotto odds.

Agree

If the Spurs land in the top 5 there is their 2nd future star and a foundational piece to building the dynasty. No playoffs for one more year and some more lottery luck is the best results for the future.

[Trueblood]

Sure, but why would teams trade their potential Hofers on rookie scales? That's my point, the price would be INSANELY high. If you can pick a future franchise player,, you don't rtade the pick for 2 firsts and 2 secounds, specially that those firsts aren't probbly gonna be top 5, if top 10.

You never really know in these scenarios. Teams might have their eye on someone at 5 but then they get scooped up at 4, so instead they trade back for two picks. Teams can get tunnel vision on a player and if they miss out often their backup options are a few spots back. Saying none of these teams would do a trade like this makes no sense because something like this happens in almost every draft. And this is a DEEP draft so trading 5 for 9 & 10 is not as far fetched as you make it seem.

[SpursBills]

As time goes on, more and more teams are controlling other teams' draft picks/futures with potential to have a high lottery pick. In a draft like 2025 or any draft with legitimate tanking targets, I wonder if we will see some gamesmanship and lopsided trades at the trade deadline to try and influence the lottery odds

For example, consider this situation next year:
Atlanta sucks big time because Capela is washed/no rim protection

Utah gives Walker Kessler to Atlanta for free, OKC gives Utah a couple crappy first rounders

Utah wants Atlanta to get better and eliminate a compe or for a top lottery pick, and also wants to tank for a better pick
OKC doesn't want SA, its future compe or to get a top lottery pick and has plenty of first rounders to spare
Atlanta doesn't own their own pick, so it'll happily accept free talent in order to improve at a position of need

Or maybe we cut OKC out of this example altogether and Utah basically just gives away Walker Kessler to Atlanta for nothing rather than accept a few second rounders or a 1st rounder from another team, viewing the price as worth it to improve a compe or for a high lottery pick

I'm not saying that this exact situation happens, but rather I wonder if there's now an opportunity for gamesmanship similar to this because teams control draft picks of other teams that have the potential of getting high lottery picks in good drafts

[Knoxxx]

The number of teams tanking by season’s end may make it very hard to have a handle on how good or bad more teams than that actually are.

[exstatic]

As time goes on, more and more teams are controlling other teams' draft picks/futures with potential to have a high lottery pick. In a draft like 2025 or any draft with legitimate tanking targets, I wonder if we will see some gamesmanship and lopsided trades at the trade deadline to try and influence the lottery odds

For example, consider this situation next year:
Atlanta sucks big time because Capela is washed/no rim protection

Utah gives Walker Kessler to Atlanta for free, OKC gives Utah a couple crappy first rounders

Utah wants Atlanta to get better and eliminate a compe or for a top lottery pick, and also wants to tank for a better pick
OKC doesn't want SA, its future compe or to get a top lottery pick and has plenty of first rounders to spare
Atlanta doesn't own their own pick, so it'll happily accept free talent in order to improve at a position of need

Or maybe we cut OKC out of this example altogether and Utah basically just gives away Walker Kessler to Atlanta for nothing rather than accept a few second rounders or a 1st rounder from another team, viewing the price as worth it to improve a compe or for a high lottery pick

I'm not saying that this exact situation happens, but rather I wonder if there's now an opportunity for gamesmanship similar to this because teams control draft picks of other teams that have the potential of getting high lottery picks in good drafts

I think the league would step in and CHRIS PAUL that trade.

[exstatic]

The number of teams tanking by season’s end may make it very hard to have a handle on how good or bad more teams than that actually are.

Take the over on whatever games Vegas sets for the spurs for this very reason.