Charlotte Pick Watch (Lottery protected)

[spurraider21]

As we know, the 2025 draft is the last opportunity for this pick to convey... otherwise we receive SRPs from Charlotte in each of 2026 and 2027

In one of the moderate surprises of the offseason, Charlotte ended up re-signing Miles Bridges to a 3 year deal. They were pretty active and yet also quiet in the offseason, making several moves, but of fairly low impact... ie waiving Seith Curry/Bertans/Poku, acquiring Josh Green and Reggie Jackson in the 6-team Klay Thompson trade, and trading for and waiving Devonte Graham.

Objectively, this pick is probably not going to convey. If one wanted to make a bull case for it...

- LaMelo Ball is a legitimate star caliber player who can rack up points and assists, and part of the Hornets' struggles has been his injury history, having only played 58 combined games in the last 2 seasons. He's a flawed player, but hard to believe Charlotte would be a better team without him. He also doesn't even turn 23 until next month.

- By all accounts, Brandon Miller had a successful rookie season, averaging 17ppg on 44/37/83 splits despite not playing with a point guard designed to make his life easier. He came in 3rd in ROY voting, well behind Chet, but also well ahead of Jacquez Jr.

- Mark Williams has been an impact player for them in his 2 seasons, but has only played 62 games in that span due to injury. He is very clearly a floor raiser for them, and a full season of Mark Williams starting instead of Nick Richards would be difference-making. There was talk about the Hornets having long term concerns about his back injury, but their decision to pass on Clingan at #6 overall may be an indication that this is not the case.

- Grant Williams and Tre Mann both played fairly well for Charlotte last year after their acquisitions (Grant in the PJ Washington trade, Mann in the Hayward trade). Along with Josh Green, Reggie Jackson, and even Micic who got some run with them, its not the worst collection of role players out there.

- Maybe Tidjane Salaun really is the superstar of the 2024 class!


Finally, when looking at the playoff picture in the east, its... not impossibe. Boston, New York, Philly, Orlando, Milwaukee, Indiana, and Cleveland all seem fairly likely to make the playoffs, which actually only leaves 1 spot, where the main compe ion would be Miami, Toronto, and Atlanta.

[LeBowen]

Could happen if they upset someone in the playoffs.

Nets, Wizards, Bulls will surely bottom out and try to get top3 odds.
Pistons got a new front office and have better talent than those three teams, but will also surely tank in the final few monthes.
Raptors have no way of acquiring a star other than the draft. They should also intentionally tank after the all-star break. Quickley/Barrett/Barnes could get into play-in contention if they're to compete.

Hornets easily have the best roster of that bunch, but are probably the most dysfunctional franchise in the league.

As you said, their rotation looks functional on paper with some high upside players.
Charles Lee is their new coach, can't say I know anything about him.

Ball/Jackson
Bridges/Green
Miller/Mann
G. Williams/Salaun
M. Williams/Richards

One of those six teams has to make the play-in and then anything can happen.
If they're healthy, and Lee can coach, they should be the team to make the play-in.
But if they're smart, they'll pull the handbrake to keep their pick.

Imagine the hype for Hawks-Hornets play-in matchup, which looks like a realistic scenario on paper.

[ismael-robert]

Good Lord season hasn't even started yall some bored mofos

[slick'81]

Spurs aint getting that 1st

[TD 21]

Bridges/G. Williams/Salaun/Black (NG)
Miller/Martin
M. Williams/Richards
Green/Mann/Smith
Ball/Micic/Jackson*/Simpson (TW)

* Unlikely to remain on roster.

Presuming relative health, they're likely to be in the 9-11 range, with the Hawks and Craptors (will probably tank post trade deadline).

[CGD]

It’s a good thread. Was just thinking that CHA may be better than advertised this year, and they have a brand new cast of FO characters coming in with some of that BOS dna. Even if it fails to convey, if CHA starts to trend in the right direction it could up the picks appeal for trades.

[scott]

Watch out for the triple nut kick: CHA improves to a play-in team, but loses to ATL. We don’t get the CHA pick, and the ATL pick gets worse.

That’s the double nut kick, what’s the third? This kicks off CHA resurgence to a playoff team, and the two seconds that this gets converted to fall into the late 40s.

[exstatic]

Bridges/G. Williams/Salaun/Black (NG)
Miller/Martin
M. Williams/Richards
Green/Mann/Smith
Ball/Micic/Jackson*/Simpson (TW)

* Unlikely to remain on roster.

Presuming relative health, they're likely to be in the 9-11 range, with the Hawks and Craptors (will probably tank post trade deadline).

We made the play in from position 9 in the Dejounte year. The East is really awful.

[DPG21920]

ATL & CHA locks for play in. Beat an injured mia to make playoffs. Profit

[Mr. Body]

Good breakdown. Although they'll have to pretend to at first, I don't think Charlotte has any real intention to compete this year, and are in the Toronto mode. I'm not sure anyone should believe in LaMelo Ball, either as a healthy player or as a winning basketball player. He's way too undisciplined.

The rest of the roster? Miller has big upside but I have trouble believing in s om. I can see Bridges getting shopped to a team like the Clippers, who will badly need him just to protect their pick. I just don't see the talent or the desire to get into the playoffs this year and the pick of Salaun might show a longer view.

In the slim chance it conveys, I'd expect the Spurs to trade it, so the question isn't "where does the FRP land" but rather "what will we get for this FRP?" If it doesn't convey, the following years' SRPs might be pretty good. I don't see them competing for a while.

[talkspurs]

I may be one of the few but I think Toronto will be in the Playoffs. I think they have a solid team and with others in the East tanking they should pick up some easy wins.

[DPG21920]

I may be one of the few but I think Toronto will be in the Playoffs. I think they have a solid team and with others in the East tanking they should pick up some easy wins.

Did they improve? Lost Gary Trent and how did they get better?

[talkspurs]

Did they improve? Lost Gary Trent and how did they get better?

They added IQ towards the end of last year. I think with him on their team for the year they will be better.

[DPG21920]

They added IQ towards the end of last year. I think with him on their team for the year they will be better.

Im not so sure adding IQ but losing Trent Jr makes them all that much better. But maybe Barnes continues to leap and IQ breaks out etc…but I just find it hard to say they’ve improved when all they have done is bring back guys they had last season and lose Gary Trent Jr and likely trade Bruce Brown sometime as well.

[Mugen]

Salaun.

[BatManu20]

Might as well just give us those 2 SRP's right now and call it a day tbh.

[spurraider21]

Salaun.

You’re right. We’re ed

[spurraider21]

Im not so sure adding IQ but losing Trent Jr makes them all that much better. But maybe Barnes continues to leap and IQ breaks out etc…but I just find it hard to say they’ve improved when all they have done is bring back guys they had last season and lose Gary Trent Jr and likely trade Bruce Brown sometime as well.

They went through a lot of turnover midseason with siakam and og both being moved and IQ/barrett/brown being integrated on the fly. Then Barnes checked out to close the season. Think there’s room for growth there

[scott]

Im not so sure adding IQ but losing Trent Jr makes them all that much better. But maybe Barnes continues to leap and IQ breaks out etc…but I just find it hard to say they’ve improved when all they have done is bring back guys they had last season and lose Gary Trent Jr and likely trade Bruce Brown sometime as well.

They were tanking pretty hard core last year to try to protect their pick. I bet they’ll be improved just on that basis alone. Still don’t think they’ll be good - just don’t think they are as bad as last year’s record suggests.

[rascal]

As we know, the 2025 draft is the last opportunity for this pick to convey... otherwise we receive SRPs from Charlotte in each of 2026 and 2027

In one of the moderate surprises of the offseason, Charlotte ended up re-signing Miles Bridges to a 3 year deal. They were pretty active and yet also quiet in the offseason, making several moves, but of fairly low impact... ie waiving Seith Curry/Bertans/Poku, acquiring Josh Green and Reggie Jackson in the 6-team Klay Thompson trade, and trading for and waiving Devonte Graham.

Objectively, this pick is probably not going to convey. If one wanted to make a bull case for it...

- LaMelo Ball is a legitimate star caliber player who can rack up points and assists, and part of the Hornets' struggles has been his injury history, having only played 58 combined games in the last 2 seasons. He's a flawed player, but hard to believe Charlotte would be a better team without him. He also doesn't even turn 23 until next month.

- By all accounts, Brandon Miller had a successful rookie season, averaging 17ppg on 44/37/83 splits despite not playing with a point guard designed to make his life easier. He came in 3rd in ROY voting, well behind Chet, but also well ahead of Jacquez Jr.

- Mark Williams has been an impact player for them in his 2 seasons, but has only played 62 games in that span due to injury. He is very clearly a floor raiser for them, and a full season of Mark Williams starting instead of Nick Richards would be difference-making. There was talk about the Hornets having long term concerns about his back injury, but their decision to pass on Clingan at #6 overall may be an indication that this is not the case.

- Grant Williams and Tre Mann both played fairly well for Charlotte last year after their acquisitions (Grant in the PJ Washington trade, Mann in the Hayward trade). Along with Josh Green, Reggie Jackson, and even Micic who got some run with them, its not the worst collection of role players out there.

- Maybe Tidjane Salaun really is the superstar of the 2024 class!


Finally, when looking at the playoff picture in the east, its... not impossibe. Boston, New York, Philly, Orlando, Milwaukee, Indiana, and Cleveland all seem fairly likely to make the playoffs, which actually only leaves 1 spot, where the main compe ion would be Miami, Toronto, and Atlanta.

Boston, New York, Philly, Orlando, Milwaukee, Indiana, Miami and Cleveland There are your 8 teams.
Charlotte has no incentive to push down the stretch to get wins to make the playoffs and lose their lottery pick.

[baseline bum]

Watch out for the triple nut kick: CHA improves to a play-in team, but loses to ATL. We don’t get the CHA pick, and the ATL pick gets worse.

That’s the double nut kick, what’s the third? This kicks off CHA resurgence to a playoff team, and the two seconds that this gets converted to fall into the late 40s.

Ouch would hate losing the chance to piss away another early second rounder on a stash and never sign again

[spurraider21]

Boston, New York, Philly, Orlando, Milwaukee, Indiana, Miami and Cleveland There are your 8 teams.
Charlotte has no incentive to push down the stretch to get wins to make the playoffs and lose their lottery pick.

Miami is not that good and has only gotten worse

[scott]

Ouch would hate losing the chance to piss away another early second rounder on a stash and never sign again

#34 pick sells for more cash than the #48 pick. Those visits to All Stars aren’t going to pay for themselves!

[Ariel]

I agree with most of the OP's reasoning, but the small detail he misses is that Miami and Atlanta want to compete, Charlotte wants to tank. At the end of the day, that may be all it takes for them to miss the playoffs. Only glimmer of hope may be they're off to a really hot smart and get so far from the bottom teams their FO says f*ck it and pivots to compe ive mode. But that's a 1% chance IMO. I'm more interested in Atlanta going through a horrendous, injury riddled season that bumps up its pick's top 4 chances.

[Raven]

thinking charlotte is probably a worse team that anyone expects.