We back!
Let's go over some scenarios, been a while.
Markkanen probably wants to get a raise and extend right away, meaning it has to be Keldon and Zach in the package.
While 4 FRPs is a lot, some of it is Zach's salary dump.
MIN pick and swap, '25 CHI and one Hawks pick seems like the most likely scenario. Maybe we get a worse picks back as I suggested because Utah has too many in some years.
Trading '26 SAS/ATL for '26 MIN/CLE would effectively be trading down by like 15 spots.
Anyhow, if raise and extend is the scenario, then we'd need a backup big, with none on the market. And very few realistic targets. Noone is giving away their cheap backup big and obtainable ones are on big contracts we wouldn't be able to match with Markkanen's raise.
If it's just a regular trade and Spurs hoping Markkanen extends, then Collins probably stays.
We'll get it done, the Warriors!
Markannen is a good player, but multiple first round picks? We just duped Atlanta into giving multiple first round picks for DJM. Why are we going to make the same mistake as Atlanta? He's not a consistent all-star player. He's a good player, but not worth a king's ransom of first round picks. The problem with stockpiling assets is that any team you try and trade with feels inclined to ask for them all.
Not quite the case. If Lauri gets a raise and extend, he can't be traded for 6 months, and he gets traded, he can't get a raise and extend for 6 months (and doing so would net him less than the max in 6 months because no team can carry enough cap space into February to raise and extend to the max). So, the Spurs still only need to send out matching salary in order to acquire Lauri - though Utah *can* absorb Keldon and Zach and give the Spurs extra cap room to go out and source a replacement.We back!
Let's go over some scenarios, been a while.
Markkanen probably wants to get a raise and extend right away, meaning it has to be Keldon and Zach in the package.
Wonder what kind of backup bigs might be available for some SRPs. If we did move out Collins, then we'd have enough room to take on Lopez if we send out someone like Branham and Wesley. Wonder if 4 SRPs would be worthwhile for MIL to get the cap relief (though IDK how badly they need this, and they seem to want an FRP).While 4 FRPs is a lot, some of it is Zach's salary dump.
MIN pick and swap, '25 CHI and one Hawks pick seems like the most likely scenario. Maybe we get a worse picks back as I suggested because Utah has too many in some years.
Trading '26 SAS/ATL for '26 MIN/CLE would effectively be trading down by like 15 spots.
Anyhow, if raise and extend is the scenario, then we'd need a backup big, with none on the market. And very few realistic targets. Noone is giving away their cheap backup big and obtainable ones are on big contracts we wouldn't be able to match with Markkanen's raise.
If it's just a regular trade and Spurs hoping Markkanen extends, then Collins probably stays.
We'll get it done, the Warriors!
He's not a star by himself, but he's one of the most efficent, if not the most efficent scorer in the league who doesn't need to stop the ball and a perfect fit with Wemby.
There are only two other players in the league who can compare with him if we talk size and elite 3pt shooting. KAT and Porzingis.
Really? I actually didn't realize he can't raise and extend if he gets traded.
Damn, we're never getting rid of Collins.
I wouldn't mind Vucevic.Wonder what kind of backup bigs might be available for some SRPs. If we did move out Collins, then we'd have enough room to take on Lopez if we send out someone like Branham and Wesley. Wonder if 4 SRPs would be worthwhile for MIL to get the cap relief (though IDK how badly they need this, and they seem to want an FRP).
20 and 21 million in the next two years.
Collins and one of Branham/Wesley going the other way, alongside a handful of SRPs or even that fake FRP from Charlotte.
Cap will raise by ~$15M next season, one of CP3 or Tre will be gone, so will the other one of Branham/Wesley and Sidy.
Enough to stay under the cap with Markkanen's extension.
Basically legit playoff team for two seasons with veterans while our young guys grow.
CP3/Castle
Devin/Champagnie
Barnes/Jeremy
Lauri/Mamu
Wemby/Vucevic
As long as Ainge doesn't require us to throw Riley Minix into the deal, I think there is a viable path forward.
A fair and reasonable opinion, but I do implore folks to think about what we're talking about here. Unless the picks are high, the Spurs haven't exactly been crushing it in the draft lately. Would you trade Keldon, Primo, Wesley and Branham for Lauri? I would. That's 1 lotto pick and 3 late FRPs. What about Sochan + Primo + Keldon + Branham? I'd do that too. The jury is still out on Sochan, but right now Keldon and Vassell are the only non-obvious FRPs the Spurs have nailed since 2018.
Like I said, I think your take is fair and reasonable... but I do think we need to be careful not to overvalue FRPs. The mean outcome for picks after the top-10 is rotation level player or worse, and the variance among the top-10 is high enough to not place an over-reliance on expecting a high end outcome.
Edit, if you like this chart and love thinking about the draft in terms of quan ative valuation - then this paper is for you: https://tonyelhabr.github.io/nba-dec...ick-value.html. This is a really excellent read for quant and data nerds, and I think is the kind of thinking that is generally missing amongst casual fans.
Last edited by scott; 07-22-2024 at 03:18 PM.
I'll refer folks to the "Understanding USG%" post, but indeed, Lauri is the most efficient scorer in the entire league based on Pts/36 per USG%, and frankly it's not even that close. Lauri's Pts/36 per USG% is 1.012, while Shai comes in at #2 at 0.970. The gap between Lauri (#1) and Shai (#2) is larger than the gap between Shai (#2) and Steph (#10 at 0.930).
Yeah, it's an interesting wrinkle in the CBA - but honestly it puts all the potential acquirers of Lauri on equal footing - so having cap space to raise and extend now is not relevant for acquiring teams.Really? I actually didn't realize he can't raise and extend if he gets traded.
Damn, we're never getting rid of Collins.
I think we could probably still get off Collins, but it would mean more compensation going out or taking back John Collins, who would be a huge improvement to our PF depth but probably not capable of center minutes and not someone I want to pay 2/$52MM for.
I think he'd be fine as a backup center, three man rotation of Wemby, Lauri and Collins could work.
His issue was playing against starting bigs.
Lauri and Collins make $44.5M combined.
Keldon and our Collins are at $35.7M.
If CP3 wasn't an injury concern, I'd give the backup role to Castle and trade Tre because his salary is a perfect match and he's a positive asset.
Branham, Wesley and Sidy make $7.6M combined.
I don't think that scenario is an option.
And neither is Kessler.
It's not happening either way, but to play along with the hypothetical: If Z. Collins is in the trade, it would stand to reason that either Kessler or J. Collins (they settled on him playing C midseason) would be too because they'd still have 3 rotational C options (Eubanks, making a representative salary).
Don't rely completely on this - but I *think* the Spurs could take back 125% of what they send out, so if they sent out Keldon and Zollins @ $35.7MM they could take back $44.625MM, just enough to fit Lauri and Jollins.
Putting myself in Utah's shoes, moving Kessler doesn't make a ton of sense because he's the youngest bit on the roster with the most potential upside. Ideally, you'd think they'd want to keep that. He's also an elite rim protector (actually ranks above Wemby at #1 in BB Index's Rim Protection stat), so you'd think they'd be able to get a better asset for him somewhere rather than just including in a Lauri deal if they wanted to move him.
If they moved Jollins by sending him out with Lauri for Keldon and Zollins, they'd exacerbate their current salary floor problem. I think Jollins is actually useful for them from that perspective. At some point they're going to have to get moving on renting out cap space. I wonder if they are holding it open for now anticipating taking back more than they send out in a Lauri deal. Like taking Wiggins in addition to Kuminga or Podz, for example.
All just speculation on my part.
thats one way to make sure Paul gets his #3 jersey tbh
At this point I highly doubt we get Lauri, but the Spurs have appeared to have made a good faith and that is satisfying.
My only quest at this point is to put an end to the brain dead narrative that Lauri isn't a good player or wouldn't be a good fit
Agreed. That's why the most likely scenario (even though I'm steadfast it won't happen period) probably doesn't involve Z. Collins or either of the Jazz bigs.
What, you think you're getting him for one first and Keldon?
no, pls Dude is 27 and by the time Wemby hits his prime, Lauri may not be the player he is now
Ainge is gonna want those nice draft picks, he is not messing around
This. The value of 1sts is extremely subjective, and you only have 12 spots on the team. Multiple 1st and seconds in the next few years you have to get rid of. Multiple players you already have, you have to get rid of. The management of assets doesn't benefit you to let them burn out on rookie contracts and leave constantly unless you're a contender already.A fair and reasonable opinion, but I do implore folks to think about what we're talking about here. Unless the picks are high, the Spurs haven't exactly been crushing it in the draft lately. Would you trade Keldon, Primo, Wesley and Branham for Lauri? I would. That's 1 lotto pick and 3 late FRPs. What about Sochan + Primo + Keldon + Branham? I'd do that too. The jury is still out on Sochan, but right now Keldon and Vassell are the only non-obvious FRPs the Spurs have nailed since 2018.
Like I said, I think your take is fair and reasonable... but I do think we need to be careful not to overvalue FRPs. The mean outcome for picks after the top-10 is rotation level player or worse, and the variance among the top-10 is high enough to not place an over-reliance on expecting a high end outcome.
Edit, if you like this chart and love thinking about the draft in terms of quan ative valuation - then this paper is for you: https://tonyelhabr.github.io/nba-dec...ick-value.html. This is a really excellent read for quant and data nerds, and I think is the kind of thinking that is generally missing amongst casual fans.
Getting legitimate stability for wemby for the next 5 years would be great for his development and morale.
Wemby is the focus. He's the franchise. You help him, not just try to win, but be happy. Sure Lauri makes him happier than a primo, wesley, branham package.
Nah nah let's not take any chances and include another $3.2 million in salary just in case. #22's an elite tank commander PG who led us to that 18 game losing streak.
You are right. We should include Branham just to be safe
There’s not going to be one group of players that go through Wemby’s career with him. Didn’t even happen with Tim. From the 99 le to the 05 le, the entire roster besides Tim, churned.
You don’t not get a brutally efficient player because he’s 27. It’s more likely that the Spurs trade him before he’s 31-32 because of apron issues than he gets too old.
As crazy as that sounds, it’s kinda interesting lol even tho most know that Chris Paul is s of his former self. It’s kinda important to know his jersey number because I know a lot people have told me personally they’re wanting to buy a Paul jersey… lol
I didn’t like him in Chicago, and he really didn’t impress in Cleveland, either, but if you can’t see that he hit another whole gear these last two years, you’re just a hater.At this point I highly doubt we get Lauri, but the Spurs have appeared to have made a good faith and that is satisfying.
My only quest at this point is to put an end to the brain dead narrative that Lauri isn't a good player or wouldn't be a good fit
You start the double deuce at PG you're gonna lose the game, no better way for Utah to assure themselves of a top 5 pick in a loaded draft. And all it costs them is Lauri.You are right. We should include Branham just to be safe
I wonder if Lauri has a preferred destination? The longer this takes and if the proposed trades with other teams are semi equal it could come down to where he prefers to go. Say what you will about the NBA being a business and all but it does send a signal to other players when a team does right by the players on their team.
While the Spurs seem to always do right by players, I wonder if Ainge is the kind of mother er who doesn't give a , and doesn't even both to ask.
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