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Collecting FRP’s to trade for an All-Star, better than anyone available at #8. It’s the perfect next step after the CP3 and Barnes acquisitions. We’ll know come August 6th. The ball’s on Ainge now.
He hasn’t impacted winning anywhere. Gives me tank commander vibes. 4 1sts for a 3rd option is a lot.
Collecting FRP’s to trade for an All-Star, better than anyone available at #8. It’s the perfect next step after the CP3 and Barnes acquisitions. We’ll know come August 6th. The ball’s on Ainge now.
I love how a lot of people in here have the confidence to make such statements when it's obvious that you didn't even bother to check some basic stats.
In his two years there, Utah is at .44 when Markkanen plays and .32 without him. He ruined both of their tank attempts and they had to shut him down in both seasons.
Saying someone gives you vibes just makes your take look unserious.
And saying he'd be a third option when Devin hasn't even broken the 20ppg mark makes it even worse.
Agreed that it's better than anyone available at #8...if we actually make the next trade. As you said, we have to wait.
But if we traded away a #8 pick just because they panicked after Salaun was picked, it's a really bad look. We have plenty of picks to trade and our wing rotation is still among the worst in the league.
They shopped the pick before the draft, but got no takers at their price. They were on the clock and had a player they were ready to pick, not named Dillingham, then Minnesota called. There was no panic involved.
i guess some posters feel that if they repeat a false narrative often enough it will somehow become true.
They shopped it because the scouting department wasn't convinced by any wings that were still available.
If Williams or Buzelis develop into high-end starters, it will be seen as a big up from PATFO because we have enough tradeable picks already.
Or those two fail and it turns out to be the right call.
But our talent evaluation hasn't been great as of late.
I get the positional/age difference factors, but you do realize that Traore, like virtually any non can't miss prospect, is unlikely to reach or exceed Markkanen's level, right?
Yeah, spouting record without context is just lazy; especially in an era where you can easily look up on/off splits too.
Markkanen had highest BPM and VORP in both seasons with the Jazz.
3.8 and 3.6 BPM, 3.3 and 2.6 VORP.
Wemby had 5.2 BPM and 3.8 VORP this season.
Second highest, if we just look at regular rotation members?
Devin with 0 BPM and 1.1 VORP.
Tre had 0.9 VORP, others were all negatives or barely above 0.
Scott went in-depth about his usage some pages back, great post.
Lauri is basically a 7ft Klay.
If Markkanen is so great why are only two teams going for him. You'd think he'd be perfect for OKC.
I don’t like what someone is saying and it doesn’t fit my worldview or narrative, so I’ll say it false.
Our picks have been more than fine, you're just expecting late picks and second rounders to be great for some reason.
Anyway, if Williams or Buzelis become more than rotation laureates I'll eat my hat. Legit see Cody as best case Keita Bates-Diop and Buzelis reminds me of Cody Zeller.
OKC is like one or two years from the second apron, which thankfully, seems to be doing its job.
I think that teams are enjoying Ainge’s discomfort, and aren’t inclined to end it. Plus, there’s the whole second apron thing looming for many teams that might want him, he’s criminally underpaid, but that will change soon.
Kings wanted him, not enough assets.
Heat wants him, not enough assets.
Others didn't even bother because very few contending teams need a PF, have 3 FRPs to trade and would be able to give him a max deal next season.
Are you really that stupid?
OKC runs a very different system coupled with the second apron.
My guess is that they got Hartenstein to start at center with the idea that he adds physicality and defense. Markkanen wouldn't play center. And if Hartenstein starts at center, my guess is Chet will play power forward and so Markkanen and Chet would be competing for minutes except in those minimal minutes where Chet will play center. I think it would be a log jam for them at a high price. That's my guess why they aren't active in the Markkanen discussions.
Jazz were 3-14 iirc with Markkanen to end the season after they traded Fontecchio away. Maybe he was the key to wins? 3-14 isn't so great
More than that
What exactly makes Lauri such an alleged perfect fit? He shoots, yes. Has finished strong at the rim last year certainly.
But he doesn't really pass at all, and in an ideal Wemby system, wouldn't every player need to be capable of passing and making plays for their teammates?
He doesn't seem to be a credible shot blocker, his block % was lower last year than just about everyone 6-8 or taller on the Spurs, including Sochan and Mamu.
He scores as the #1 option and has okay rebounding numbers.
When he wasn't the first option, nobody was desperate to sign him. When his usage was less than 25%, he was just a nice piece to force into restricted free agency for the Bulls and to be thrown into a trade by the Cavs.
If he doesn't get the same shot volume, maybe he's not so great
This is it. He's a play finisher but not a circulator or creator. He's constantly discussed as a seven footer but he doesn't play like one. He's a pretty good rebounder boy doesn't block shots, isn't a lane deterrent, can't guard beefy players any better than anyone else.
He's a player teams would probably like, but he's getting priced like a big star.
Guys who also haven't impacted winning: Victor Wembanyama, Devin Vassell.
You also think Lauri Markkanen is Gabe Vincent, so maybe its your evaluation skills that are the issue?
This part I agree. Primo, Samanic, Weiskamp all over-achieved at the Combine but lacked the character. Branham seems nonchalant and occasionally needs prodding but until when?, Wesley/Sochan have motors but can’t shoot, Lonnie good character and athletic but low bball IQ. And PATFO seemed to draft position instead of BPA. Haliburton, Sengun, Jalen Johnson all available. Of course we would’ve not gotten Wemby, but they didn’t know that at that time.
Castle is a great pick, big defensive who’s probably the best POA defender
#8 Buzelis or especially Williams could be high-ceiling prospects at Wing
#35 Furphy send a nice pick 6’9 who can score. Nunez would be great if he can learn from CP3 now not when he’s gone.
Again I trust PATFO has something cooking, coz if they miss out. Yup lately I haven’t been impressed. Because Thunder, Rockets seem doing a better job rebuilding if not for Wemby. Take away Wemby, Spurs will have the worst future.
Yes but those two haven’t been in the league that long. We’d all like him on the team, but not for 3 firsts and Vassel.
Great breakdown of some of our recent picks, John B.
At some point, it is important for the team to just be honest where we are from a scouting and talent evaluation standpoint so they can adjust their team building philosophy around their strengths and weaknesses.
Right now, here are what I think are our front office's strengths:
- Asset ac ulation - Wright and co have proven to be amongst the tops in the league and finding small advantages and exploiting them to find valuable assets for relatively cheap
- Role Player acquisition - Paul, Barnes, Osman, Josh Richardson, Champagnie, Bassey, Mamu... these are all moves of varying prestige but all yielded players that are useful in various roles. And yes, I believe Bassey and Mamu are useful. These are end of bench guys that are actually capable and maybe even deserving of larger roles. They may not turn into premier rotation players, but they were free rolls of the dice and the FO has proven to be good at finding these kind of deals. CP3 is a below MLE level contract that add a lot of value to the team long term, maybe more than even in wins while he is here. Barnes upgrades our wing depth, which was desperately needed. I think we do well here.
- Top end talent evaluation. This one I don't give them *too* much credit for, since Wemby is a no-brainer and Castle likely is one as well. At least we don't get cute at the top of the draft and it up, and some teams do!
Weaknesses::
- Draft scouting and talent evaluation. John B had a great list above. We just aren't the scouting masters we used to be. That doesn't mean everyone should be fired, but we just need to acknowledge this.
- FA attraction. This isn't so much the FO's fault, but it is a weakness of our team building ability that needs to be acknowledged.
With these things in mind, it would leave me to believe that just relying on building through the draft alone, or thinking we'll build via FA, may not be the best strategies. Where we are strong is ac ulating assets and then working good returns on trades. What does that suggest to me? That we should continue ac ulating assets and then USE THEM IN TRADES to build out our team. Four draft picks for a player seems like a lot, until you remember that your draft picks usually turn into Josh Primo, Jeremy Sochan, Blake Wesley and Malaki Branham. That's two lotto picks and two late picks. I am driving those guys to the airport myself to trade them for Lauri, but when we think of those players in terms of nameless, faceless draft picks with unknown potential... we start to get antsy...
That's because humans overvalue the unknown. The expected value of a $2 Powerball ticket, excluding Jackpots, is $0.32 (source: https://www.statisticshowto.com/powe...xpected-value/), meaning that you can expect to get back $0.32 for every Powerball ticket you buy. If you buy a ticket and I offer you $1 for it, you'd say no because of the potential upside even though in the long run you'd be better off taking the $1. This is just human nature... yeah, we know we'll probably get less back than we put in... but WE MIGHT WIN BIG! The same general concept applies to draft picks, even though the odds of any draft pick outside of a top, no-brainer pick rising to the level of someone like Lauri is extremely low... we are still drawn by the remote possibility that one of those picks might be the next Giannis or Kawhi or Joker or Ginobili.
But we already have our superstar, give me the known quan y to go with him.
I also would not give up 3 first and Vassell (and have said as much), but that's not the point. The point is that "Lauri has never impacted winning" without context isn't very meaningful analysis.
If we didn't have Wemby and were still looking for our star but were constantly finishing with the 10th pick in large part because of Vassell, it would probably be time to move Vassell for a huge haul while we could, but we wouldn't be moved by someone pointing out that Vassell has never impacted winning so thus doesn't have any value.
Hey, I tend to agree that a top dog will carry a team to a winning record (see Luka). But 2nd and 3rd tier stars need to be on good rosters to impact winning at a high level. Lauri has never been on that type of team. He's clearly not a top dog. I'm not sure he is the 2nd best player on a championship team, but I do think he can be the third best player on a championship team. I don't know if Vassell is a 2nd or 3rd best player on a championship team, but he plays a position of need, has the tools to be a good defender, and can be a secondary playmaker, so I'd roll with him over Markannan if it ever came down to it.
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