No way I’d give that up. Ainge can have Markkanen for another year, he’s signing here once he’s free.
Would make sense that the Jazz would ask for ATL25, but it's not like anyone else has a potential lotto 25 pick on offer either, so I wouldn't think that alone would kill the Spurs chances. The Spurs should hold firm at saying no to ATL25, because there is no comparable pick on offer from anywhere. SA26 w the ATL swap attached is the most valuable pick that they could reasonably get (I'd offer this up, not sure if PATFO would).
TJones UTA best source of info is saying we won't give the ATL25 in a million years.
Found it. He later said the he deleted it because he always deletes tweets when he's done with a conversation (which is weird and self important, but whatever).
It's kind of interesting... ATL25 on its own probably will not yield a player as good as Markkanen, so from my POV it's not that ATL25 is too high of a price, but rather that there is simply no reason for the Spurs to go there. No one who is in the running for Lauri can offer a projected 25 lotto pick (except for us), so there is no need to up the ante to that level.
In the end, this doesn't sound like it's an actual deal breaker, but Jones responding to a fan suggestion (and Jones is right, for the reasons I mentioned)
We can argue back and forth on how much to give up for Lauri, and that argument probably depends on a ton of factors, like how much time you think it'll take for Wemby to become a top 1-3 guy, how quickly you think Castle can develop, whether a Wemby-Lauri-Vassell+ core beats an SGA-JDub-Chet+ core over the next 5 years, whether the Spurs are now truly mediocre drafters or whether their hand was forced the last couple years due to trying to take big swings on risky prospects, if you believe in Wemby's longevity over 15 years, how willing you are to be terrible again for another year, whether Lauri is actually injury-prone or whether he was just held out due to a tanking Jazz team the last couple years, etc. etc.
However, the notion that Lauri is some "empty calories" role player doesn't seem right to me
Over the last 10 seasons, there have been 19 other players with TS > 62%, USG > 24 (Lauri hovers around 63-64% at 25-26% USG over the last 2 seasons)
1. Giannis x 4
2. Jimmy Butler x 2
3. Curry x 6
4. AD x 2
5. KD x 7
6. Embiid
7. SGA x 2
8. Harden
9. Lebron x 3
10. Jokic x 4
11. Zach Lavine
12. Kawhi
13. Dame
14. Lowry
15. Porzingis
16. Isaiah Thomas
17. KAT x 3
18. Zion
19. Bojan Bogdanovic
Most of the guys on this list are the primary drivers of efficient offenses. I would argue that aside from Bogdanovic and Lavine, having any one of these guys as one of your top 2 offensive options is going to give you a pretty good chance of having an above average to great offense. In terms of others' concerns:
1. He hasn't won and this makes him a losing player - this has been covered pretty extensively as the context of his teams have played a pretty big role. His teams are better when he is on the court compared to when he is off the court, which is enough for me, and suggests that a change in team context and/or fit may significantly impact his ability to win. See: Porzingis, Derrick White, Devin Booker
2. He can't pass because he has low assists - Lauri's role is a hyper-efficient play finisher, and his assist numbers track with some other high level efficient play-finishers such as Klay, Dirk, and Amare Stoudemire. While his AST:TO leaves something to be desired, it has still been at least over 1 the last couple of years which to me is acceptable for a guy in his role. Watching him play he does not seem to be a black hole who dribbles the air out of the ball and certainly not a ball stopper.
3. His defense sucks - true, it's not great. But at the same time, it's not Trae Young bad, and his size gives him some leeway to become a good defender. As has been stated multiple times, the strength of a playoff defense is determined by its weakest defender and Lauri has the size and wing-ish speed to not get completely torched or bullied with help. We've seen allegedly poor defenders improve significantly in a team context - Karl Anthony Towns is a prime example of this. In fact, the Lauri-Wemby combo may end up resembling something like a supercharged version of a KAT-Gobert front court defensively, which is a front court that you can still build a championship defense around.
I think my primary concern around Lauri (a very small one compared to his advantages he brings), comes from roster construction and his ability to maintain his efficiency given a defensively-oriented roster. Hardy's playing a lot of 5-out lineups with +shooting at all four other positions. He's featured Olynyk and Collins at center prominently and had Walker Kessler in a reduced role due to his inability to shoot. I'm not even going to get into Sochan's shooting struggles, but even a guy like Castle over the course of Lauri's next contract probably isn't going to provide the requisite shooting to match what Utah was playing. And if Sochan's shooting is a lost cause and you're not playing him, you probably have to still find a good wing defender who's a plus shooter to fill his spot. And since Lauri isn't exactly a playmaker, that guy may have to have some passing chops/ball-moving ability to play in a Wemby-centric motion offense. If you make that guy just a mediocre or inconsistent shooter, and you pair him with Castle, will Lauri be able to reproduce similar efficiency at similar usage? We saw what happened in Cleveland with poor spacing - Lauri's a way better player now than he was back then, but team context has to be taken into account as well.
Overall, it comes down to price. He's a no-brainer for keldon and 3-4 mediocre first rounders to me, but when you start getting into prime draft capital, the above are certainly considerations to take into account.
Some yahoo on Twitter asks his opinion on whether the pick might be included, and suddenly it’s THE DEAL BREAKER?
While he is super rich and will be way more richer, things like taxes and COL may be a slightly higher factor than normal since he hasn't been a max player until the last couple of seasons. I think he'd want to maximize his earnings at this stage, tbh. It's not the main reason or anything he wouldn't go but it could be a factor.
I find Spurstalk pretty funny sometimes.
Posters here: Lauri wouldn’t make us a winner with our current team.
Same ing posters: Sochan, Vassell, and Castle are the future of the Spurs and will help us win championships
Again same posters: we need to draft more talent bc our current talent isn’t good enough to win the championship. We can’t throw away our future picks for an all star bc we don’t have enough talent on the team.
Same posters again : Castle will be all world defense and be an amazing shooter. He is our second star.
Same posters again again again: We need our second star in this team and the only way to get it is through the draft. So we gotta give Brian Wrong more opportunities to get the second star
Same posters: how can you say you want the Spurs to tank to get a second star in 2025?? We have too much talent to be a bad team next year. But not enough talent where it makes sense to add an all star player who doesn’t need the ball in his hands to get 20 a game and would spread the floor for our team full of players who can’t shoot so that Wemby isn’t triple teamed.
^ we all know which re you're talking about.
He summed up whole forum^ we all know which re you're talking about.
Yeah, it’s a lazy & flawed way to look at it.
Case & point, Wemby was easily a Top5 defender from day 1, but Spurs were still an awful defensive team (bottom 3 for first 3/4 of season), therefore Wemby didn’t impact the defense? That’s absurb
Team sport, the team matters, the structure matters, & experience/age matters
Last edited by Arguendo; 07-26-2024 at 12:25 AM.
Too many pages to sort through.
Lauri is an UFA after this season isn't he?
If UTAH is not giving him what he wants (max deal / Whataburger /whatever), just just say he's not going to sign with who he's traded to. Just wait it out (that's the gamble part in hoping he's not injured. Or say that to narrow the teams you are willing to sign with.
Lauri naysayers are crazy. The fit is unbelievable and Markkanen to SA would be the compe ive cherry on top of this roster. He is so complimentary to what the Spurs are already running imho.
Obviously the ask makes all the difference. Agree that at least Vassell and ATL25 are deal breakers for SA.
Was hoping UTA would take a more picks-based offer with 4 FRPs and 4 2RPs or something + ballast. It's a unique situation where the recipient team won't need much player premium back because they appear to need to tank to protect and enrich their pick. So the Keldon's and Zach's typically unwanted would in this case be acceptable. But hearing UTA won't take Keldon lol. Asking for Dev when they know the Spurs won't do that. Jazz FO is sabotaging negotiations at this point.
Just restating the common points here but wanting to be official Lauri gang and go on record. Would be a total heist of a get with the other recent moves and would absolutely surge hype levels going into the season.
Sochan does a lot of things that you don't get from a lot of NBA players so he's a great guy to have on the team. And he's 21 years old so you really don't know what his upside is. Vassell is probably a 3rd or 4th star on a championship team. So the idea of us needing a second one isn't farfetched.
Castle on the other hand is 19 years old. If he becomes SGA he is absolutely the second star. But right now we don't know how he's going to pan out even if he is really good. The thing is I don't think Lauri is a second star on a championship team either. So adding him would make us a playoff contender for sure but are we competing for championships with him? Probably not, obviously unless Castle becomes a superstar in the next 2-3 years.
This of course is purely speculation, but it's possible Lauri and the Jazz have some kind of gentlemen's agreement where the team hears Lauri's request to not be part of a tank again, and the Jazz have told him they'll "try their best" to trade him. From Lauri's POV, he's good with that and is not demanding a trade, and has told the Jazz that if they can't trade him then he'll resign and go with the program. In that instance, the Jazz now are committed to only accept insane offers no team will ever agree to (sabotaging negotiations) because they're goal is to keep Lauri and find a way to tank.
Why would Markannen do that and give up a fifth year and higher raises?
If by some chance Lauri doesn't get traded and decides to hit UFA, it doesn't necessarily mean that he'll give up the 5th year and higher raises. Sign and trade is always an option as well.
Edit: I don't think this will happen, just saying it's possible.
I agree overall but i think that Wemby plus two legit 3rd options (Vassell and Lauri) would launch us into contention, assuming that the rest of the roster is well balanced and defensively complementary.
Because he will likely have an opt out after his 2nd season of a new contract anyway so that he can get 35% of the cap as a 10 year player instead of 30% that he is eligible for now.
Other then colluding got Durbetta, how many NBA players and esp All Star caliber have played out their contracts so the team they then choose to go to will be so much the better?
If Markannen really wanted to be on a long term winner in his own prime, can you imagine how much it helps both the Spurs and himself to come here next year as an UFA?
Of course we'd still have salary offload problems with Keldon etc.
Is this kunt a spur yet?
Some Jazz fans saying that they think Lauri will renegotiate and extend on Aug 7, specifically to kill an trade rumors for this season. That makes sense, so Aug 7-10 probably becomes the key dates to watch.
This was obvious when they said GS needed a third first and SA already has them. If that’s true, theres no way to think GS could net a first by trading Wiggins. He may cost them draft captial to move or if they are lucky they get some 2nds or a crappy first.
Aha! Lauri will be a spur then.
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