It will all depend where those far out CLE and MIN picks turn out. Right now they are just delivering picks in the 20s, which doesn't do UTA any good. In that respect, if the Spurs wanted to acquire a second star next to Wemby (doesn't have to be Lauri), it might be in our best interest to trade our own short term (within the next 3-4 seasons) picks, as in theory whatever second star we get should push us into a solid playoff team and we'll just be turning over picks in the 20s as well.
100%. This is why I love the idea of Ainge playing hardball and ended up giving away his pick in a year he should tank, it will be ultimate LOL worthy. Presti has more misses than hits in the 11-14 range, so I'm not overly concerned about OKC getting another pick there.
His track record has been spotty since, but both the Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum picks were elite decisions that went against consensus at that time.
Jaylen Brown was seen as a huge reach in 2016 since he was just some athletic mystery box who didn't really do anything that well at Cal. The next year, it wasn't entirely clear to a lot of people that Tatum was even better than Josh Jackson as the draft's best wing; Fultz was virtually a consensus number 1 that year
Tatum is also on record saying that the Celtics were going to pick him at 1 but they knew that Philly wanted Fultz and so decided to trade the pick
An average GM would have probably drafted Dragan Bender and Josh Jackson those two years, or Bender/Fultz if he didn't make the trade
It's amazing in the NBA how all you have to do is hit on 1-2 big decisions and you're able to set your franchise up for success for a decade. Even if Stevens hadn't set up Holiday and Porzingis, just drafting Tatum/Brown was enough to turn the Celtics from a lost franchise into perennial contenders
To do that the Warriors would probably need to trade their 2025 to Washington since the Wizards would have them over a barrel with their claim to GSW's 2030 if it falls 21-30.
More like one more team to worry about if Utah gets GSW's 27, 29, and 31 from them plus 28 and 30 pick swaps.
Assets I would not trade for Lauri:
-Wemby, Vassell, Castle.
-2025 Spurs' pick.
-Any of the Hawks picks.
Anything else is fair game, imho. What do yall think would be the most enticing package for the Jazz, excluding the assets listed above?
2025 Spurs pick is not valuable at all if they get Lauri without giving up Vassell. That won’t be a lottery pick anymore tbh.
There's 0% chance Spurs get Markkanen without giving up at least one Hawks pick.
I know fans are always subjective, but why would Ainge give up his legit all-star for picks that aren't projected to be in the lottery?
Hawks picks will be good, but I'll repeat again that odds of getting a top5 pick from another team are low because they have no reason to lose games.
Yes, it happened this year with Houston and Brooklyn, but the odds were 20%.
Sorry, but I value Lauri more than 20% chance for a top5 pick.
You never know, anything can happen. Also, I don't know what guys are expecting, but I really doubt the Spurs get Lauri and immediately become contenders. The most likely scenario would still be a first round exit, which means our pick would be in the late teens. Add that to the Hawks pick and maybe you can trade up in the next draft. Trading our 25 pick would be dangerous malpractice.
I think Lowe and McMahon threw cold water on the possibility of a trade.
Well, then they can keep Mark and win 35 games.
That's usually the case when these kind of trades happen. Nobody trades an unprotected pick thinking they will be a lottery team. The Nets thought they were gonna be good when they traded for Garnett and Pierce, the Hawks thought they were gonna be good when they trade for Dejounte, same with the Wolves and Gobbert. You are never gonna get a guaranteed lottery pick, you just get unprotected picks hoping for the best.I know fans are always subjective, but why would Ainge give up his legit all-star for picks that aren't projected to be in the lottery?
Hawks picks will be good, but I'll repeat again that odds of getting a top5 pick from another team are low because they have no reason to lose games.
Yes, it happened this year with Houston and Brooklyn, but the odds were 20%.
Sorry, but I value Lauri more than 20% chance for a top5 pick.
There are many packages the Spurs can come up, without including the Hawks' picks, that would be better than anything other team can offer the Jazz, tbh.
At least per the Jazz fans I have spoken to (expect for one), there is no deal without Vassell and all the ATL picks - so these near beer drinking polygamists - let them rot forever in the treadmill.
*There is one Jazz fan I spoke to who seemed more realistic, and feels like the Jazz should jettison Lauri for a reasonable haul that is mostly pick based and tank. He doesn't love Keldon, but understands that the most valuable assets we have to offer are picks, whereas GSW has more valuable young players to offer (since our only valuable young assets are really just Wemby, Vassell and Castle, which we aren't giving up). But most Jazz fans seem to think they don't need to do anything and that teams must offer the greatest package in history for Lauri. 'em.
And we can bank on 30% chance to get a top4 pick with our own and Hawks picks and another 30% chance that the player we draft will turn out to be better than Markkanen in like three to four years.
There's a reason why all-star players are so expensive these days. There aren't many of them.
Difference being that those teams blew their entire load and hoped for the best.That's usually the case when these kind of trades happen. Nobody trades an unprotected pick thinking they will be a lottery team. The Nets thought they were gonna be good when they traded for Garnett and Pierce, the Hawks thought they were gonna be good when they trade for Dejounte, same with the Wolves and Gobbert.
Spurs already have their franchise player and 11 or 12 FRPs in the next 7 drafts. With 5 more swaps on top.
You don't hope for the best when the team that's trading you that pick has Wemby and is getting another all-star.You are never gonna get a guaranteed lottery pick, you just get unprotected picks hoping for the best.
I wouldn't trade '25 picks and I doubt Ainge would prefer them, but trading either '26 or '27 Hawks picks is fair.
They can't tank meaning they won't have top4 odds. Maybe Ainge gets lucky with 20-30% odds to get a top4 pick, maybe he doesn't.
As I said, I value Markkanen more than those low odds.
I obviously wouldn't trade all the Hawks picks, but if we're to get an all-star, we need to trade away one high value asset.
I believe this is the key thing that has been lost of late. The Jazz should be picking a lane, but they've convinced the world (Lowe and McMahon included) that they are happy just extending Lauri. Call their bluff. Extending Lauri put them in a spot where they either end up in the mid-to-late lotto treadmill again, or where they have to sit Lauri and trade away guys like Sexton, which will piss Lauri off to where he ultimately just demands a trade and the Jazz get even less for him.
Ainge doesn't have as much leverage as he is being given credit for an as Jazz fans want to believe. So much so, that I'd even remove one of the picks I've suggested and only offer SA28, SA30 and MIN31. Ainge.
Injury prone?
Lauri Markkanen Injuries - NBA | FOX Sports
Somebody upthread mentioned Makannens injurys.
Thoughts before signing him to some fat contract?
I think it's well known that I'm CEO (or at least VP) of the Lauri Gang around here, so this may come as a surprise to hear me say... but we don't HAVE to get Lauri. Do I believe we'll be awesome with him? Yes. But we should still be able to build a winner around Wemby without him. I'd be fine with rolling the dice on two lotto picks next year. I'm not putting any 25 picks on the table for Ainge, and I'm even backtracking on the 26 pick.
I also wouldn't trade '25 picks, that was just to put things into perspective.
I'd be fine with either '26 or '27.
He's just too perfect of a trade for many reasons.
Basketball fit is as good as it gets.
Obviously he'd agree to extend like OG and Siakam did if he's traded, his contract situation would be perfect because it would allign with Devin and we wouldn't have any cap issues or big decisions to make on who to trade before 2028 when both of them would enter their final year.
We have a ton of pick and at some point we'll start using them. I'm a firm believer that forwards are more valuable than guards and I'm also high on Devin and Castle.
Our forward rotation is still kind of garbage and if you remember Dejounte's topic, there aren't any high young, end forwards we'll be able to get over the next few years that wouldn't up our cap or asset situation.
Imo, if we don't get Lauri, we're not getting an all-star forward in the foreseeable future unless we draft one.
Yeah, I would rather do that than to overpay for a guy that we don't need to overpay for.
So? Just because of that we need to overpay? It's like a guy said earlier in the thread: "not just because you have the money, it means it's smart to pay over market value".Difference being that those teams blew their entire load and hoped for the best.
Spurs already have their franchise player and 11 or 12 FRPs in the next 7 drafts. With 5 more swaps on top.
In a potential Markkenen trade, we would be giving out 3 to 4 unprotected picks, those are "high value assets" regardless of how good you think the Spurs can be in the future.You don't hope for the best when the team that's trading you that pick has Wemby and is getting another all-star.
I wouldn't trade '25 picks and I doubt Ainge would prefer them, but trading either '26 or '27 Hawks picks is fair.
They can't tank meaning they won't have top4 odds. Maybe Ainge gets lucky with 20-30% odds to get a top4 pick, maybe he doesn't.
As I said, I value Markkanen more than those low odds.
I obviously wouldn't trade all the Hawks picks, but if we're to get an all-star, we need to trade away one high value asset.
4 unprotected picks are good enough on themselves, there's no reason to outbid ourselves and have those picks be the Hawks' ones just because we have them. Of course the Jazz are gonna ask for those, but there's no reason for the Spurs to budge because no other team is gonna offer the Jazz these type of picks. The Spurs have no compe ors.
You sound like a guy that would get fleeced by Ainge, tbh. No need to add Hawks' picks, between our own picks, the Hornets, Chicago and the Wolves and Mavs picks, there's a good enough package to offer that would beat any other proposal the Jazz get.
What's an overpay? It depends on how you see the player.
Knicks gave up 4 unprotected own FRPs, 1 unprotected swap and top4 protected '25 Bucks pick for Bridges who's a tier below Lauri.
But we have enough assets that we don't have to use more than one own pick, if that.In a potential Markkenen trade, we would be giving out 3 to 4 unprotected picks, those are "high value assets" regardless of how good you think the Spurs can be in the future.
We just traded away a #8 pick. I said I'm fine with it if that pick is used for something. But trading away a #8 pick while we're still one of the worst teams in the league makes no sense if they're still about building through draft.
Another thing is that 7 Spurs FRPs before Wemby wouldn't get us Lauri in a trade. Three of those selections were in the lottery.
Hornets pick won't convey. It won't be considered as a FRP by anyone.4 unprotected picks are good enough on themselves, there's no reason to outbid ourselves and have those picks be the Hawks' ones just because we have them. Of course the Jazz are gonna ask for those, but there's no reason for the Spurs to budge because no other team is gonna offer the Jazz these type of picks. The Spurs have no compe ors.
You sound like a guy that would get fleeced by Ainge, tbh
You're more or less arguing over one Hawks pick because my offer would be:
'25 CHI
'30 SAS/MIN/DAL
'31 MIN
and one Hawks pick. Either '26 or '27.
You'd really value one of those two picks over Lauri when Hawks don't have an incentive to tank in a conference that's garbage and a third of it is either tanking or will be tanking in a year or two?
Why wouldn't a team give up a malleable, in their prime star, who wants to stay in their non glamor market, for none of a team's best assets?
I don't disagree, but: They project as a bottom 6 team as is, (Bulls, Trail Blazers, Pistons, Nets, Wizards), getting to the bottom 2 is going to be difficult no matter what and as good a prospect (and ideal of one in that market) as Flagg is, he's not Wembanyama and the '25 draft is supposed to be similar to the '21 draft where there's a loaded, extensive top tier.
Tanking this year is an interesting study to me, because unlike the Wemby year where you were in-the-money only at #1, I believe there is a reasonable case to be made that you are in-the-money anywhere in the Top 5 this year (of course, it is early, and some of these guys could bust out). I don’t see this as “The Cooper Flagg” sweepstakes as much as I do the “Flagg-Bailey-Harper-Traore-Edgecomb” draft (with Hugo Gonzalez a stalking horse to enter the conversation).
So with that in mind, it is easier to finish in the money but as a result I think we will see a next level of tanking by some of the teams in that 6-12 range. In many respects, that is going to hurt us with the ATL pick because they have no reason to join the fray which may clear out an easy path to them to finish towards the back of the lotto or even play-in. So, Utah will both have a bigger range to hit but more compe ion in the tank race.
If I am the Jazz, I want to do everything possible to get that Top 5 in-the-money pick this year. 30-34 wins will be a complete disaster for them. Lauri, Sexton, Clarkson and Jollins are enough vet talent for them to make things risky… I think they have more need to move off these guys than is being suggested.
One thing is for certain: there is going to be some terrible basketball being played this season
Something to keep in mind is the new CBA rule about the floor team salary.
When a team is below the floor on opening night, it is now heavily penalized:
- It has a cap hold to negate the extra cap space available.
- It must pay the difference between its team salary and the floor to the league.
- It doesn't received a luxury tax payout share which will be about $15M this season.
Utah is currently $16M below the floor (and $30M below the cap) and they must raise their team salary by that amount before opening night. A max raise and extend deal with Markannen will up their team salary by $24M.
To me, it's a strong hint that Jazz main intend is to do the "raise and extend" move this summer. Jazz and Markannen have two options with that deal:
- Doing it on August 6th: Markannnen will be tradable just in time for the trade deadline (February 6th this season).
- Doing it later in August: Markannen won't be tradable until the 2025 summer.
If the Jazz keep Lauri and make (but lose) a play-in game (and then lose their pick to OKC), does Hardy get fired for exceeding expectations?
Though a year ago Holland, Buzelis, Justin Edwards (lol went undrafted), Collier, and DJ Wagner (lol didn't come out) were supposed to be an exciting top 5 too so you never really know this early.Tanking this year is an interesting study to me, because unlike the Wemby year where you were in-the-money only at #1, I believe there is a reasonable case to be made that you are in-the-money anywhere in the Top 5 this year (of course, it is early, and some of these guys could bust out). I don’t see this as “The Cooper Flagg” sweepstakes as much as I do the “Flagg-Bailey-Harper-Traore-Edgecomb” draft (with Hugo Gonzalez a stalking horse to enter the conversation).
So with that in mind, it is easier to finish in the money but as a result I think we will see a next level of tanking by some of the teams in that 6-12 range. In many respects, that is going to hurt us with the ATL pick because they have no reason to join the fray which may clear out an easy path to them to finish towards the back of the lotto or even play-in. So, Utah will both have a bigger range to hit but more compe ion in the tank race.
If I am the Jazz, I want to do everything possible to get that Top 5 in-the-money pick this year. 30-34 wins will be a complete disaster for them. Lauri, Sexton, Clarkson and Jollins are enough vet talent for them to make things risky… I think they have more need to move off these guys than is being suggested.
One thing is for certain: there is going to be some terrible basketball being played this season
My point exactly. They should be naturally around that line (and can help it by intentionally playing net negative lineups) and at that point, it's not difficult to get to the post All-Star break and occasionally sit or altogether shutdown Markkanen (as much as he might dislike it again, what can he do about it), Sexton and Kessler, if necessary.Tanking this year is an interesting study to me, because unlike the Wemby year where you were in-the-money only at #1, I believe there is a reasonable case to be made that you are in-the-money anywhere in the Top 5 this year (of course, it is early, and some of these guys could bust out). I don’t see this as “The Cooper Flagg” sweepstakes as much as I do the “Flagg-Bailey-Harper-Traore-Edgecomb” draft (with Hugo Gonzalez a stalking horse to enter the conversation).
So with that in mind, it is easier to finish in the money but as a result I think we will see a next level of tanking by some of the teams in that 6-12 range. In many respects, that is going to hurt us with the ATL pick because they have no reason to join the fray which may clear out an easy path to them to finish towards the back of the lotto or even play-in. So, Utah will both have a bigger range to hit but more compe ion in the tank race.
If I am the Jazz, I want to do everything possible to get that Top 5 in-the-money pick this year. 30-34 wins will be a complete disaster for them. Lauri, Sexton, Clarkson and Jollins are enough vet talent for them to make things risky… I think they have more need to move off these guys than is being suggested.
One thing is for certain: there is going to be some terrible basketball being played this season
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