There is Markannen to Spurs Buzz

[scott]

Though a year ago Holland, Buzelis, Justin Edwards (lol went undrafted), Collier, and DJ Wagner (lol didn't come out) were supposed to be an exciting top 5 too so you never really know this early.

For sure, but I will also say that the 2024 class wasn't as highly regarded as the 2023 or 2025 classes were/are. But come draft day next year this could very well look like a 5-deep draft or a bust like the 2024 draft. We can only go by what we know at the time, right? But that's also why I get frustrated by the folks slobbering over the way we traded away #8 for the meager return we got. 20131 may very well end up a weak ass draft too, and there's only 26.7% chance the pick is as good or better than #8 if you subscribe to the idea that far out picks are all basically subject to natural variance.

But for now... looks like Top 5 is in the money based on everything we know today. We'll just have to see!

[scott]

My point exactly. They should be naturally around that line (and can help it by intentionally playing net negative lineups) and at that point, it's not difficult to get to the post All-Star break and occasionally sit or altogether shutdown Markkanen (as much as he might dislike it again, what can he do about it), Sexton and Kessler, if necessary.

Interestingly, some Jazz fans seem to think that Sexton is the wiser guy to hold on to. He's obviously younger, but more importantly his impact relative to his trade value is much higher. Sure enough, Sexton posts a 19.9 PER and a .127 WS/48, compared to Lauri's 21.5 PER and .163 WS/48 (I understand these are flawed metrics. I would have turned to EPM, but I don't have a subscription to Dunks and Threes and am not sure where else to get that info - shout out to whomever has a lead on the best place to look). Point being, Lauri will cost a haul, Sexton's value probably isn't near that (probably because Sexton is such an easier archetype to replace and the league doesn't value undersized SGs). So trading Sexton likely also helps their tank, but they'd get getting back less value than he provides. It would be kind of like trading Derrick White for Blake Wesley and a pick swap (sorry, couldn't resist).

[jesterbobman]

Interestingly, some Jazz fans seem to think that Sexton is the wiser guy to hold on to. He's obviously younger, but more importantly his impact relative to his trade value is much higher. Sure enough, Sexton posts a 19.9 PER and a .127 WS/48, compared to Lauri's 21.5 PER and .163 WS/48 (I understand these are flawed metrics. I would have turned to EPM, but I don't have a subscription to Dunks and Threes and am not sure where else to get that info - shout out to whomever has a lead on the best place to look). Point being, Lauri will cost a haul, Sexton's value probably isn't near that (probably because Sexton is such an easier archetype to replace and the league doesn't value undersized SGs). So trading Sexton likely also helps their tank, but they'd get getting back less value than he provides. It would be kind of like trading Derrick White for Blake Wesley and a pick swap (sorry, couldn't resist).

Scrolling through Dunks and Threes (without a sub, you can see everyone but can't search), Lauri is a +3.7 (+4.6 Offense, -0.9 Defense), Sexton is a +2.2 (+3.8 Offense, -1.6 Defense). All estimates are wrong, but the three together point to Lauri being a slightly better player (1.5 extra points of value per 48 is quite a bit, worth about 4-5 wins in difference over the course of a season).

I was interested in a Sexton trade in concept earlier pre draft and FA, but I don't think that we're a great partner now. I think the Guard minutes are the strongest in terms of depth, and unless you moved to smallish lineups with Castle and Vassell playing a lot of SF, it's hard to make the minute distribution work.

[scott]

Scrolling through Dunks and Threes (without a sub, you can see everyone but can't search), Lauri is a +3.7 (+4.6 Offense, -0.9 Defense), Sexton is a +2.2 (+3.8 Offense, -1.6 Defense). All estimates are wrong, but the three together point to Lauri being a slightly better player (1.5 extra points of value per 48 is quite a bit, worth about 4-5 wins in difference over the course of a season).

I was interested in a Sexton trade in concept earlier pre draft and FA, but I don't think that we're a great partner now. I think the Guard minutes are the strongest in terms of depth, and unless you moved to smallish lineups with Castle and Vassell playing a lot of SF, it's hard to make the minute distribution work.

Thanks for the tip on scrolling.

Sexton is a 96th percentile Offensive EPM, which is not what I would have expected. He's an easy archetype to replace, but he's actually fairly efficient (76th percentile TS%). Kind of a hidden gem there in Utah, definitely worth more to a team than would likely return in a trade.

[Dex]

I think Lowe and McMahon threw cold water on the possibility of a trade.

They did.

Basically said that Utah is listening to offers, but their asking price is too high. Lauri has also said he wants to stay in Utah and not move his wife and kid.

Seems more likely that they will either extend him or risk a contract year with him, but the motivation doesn't seem to be there from Utah's side unless someone makes a ridiculous offer, and it wouldn't be prudent for the Spurs to do so.

That said, it pretty much keeps the Jazz as a treadmill team...not getting worse, but definitely not getting better enough to be relevant.

[Pauleta14]

Games played last 3 seasons by Lauri : 55, 66 and 61

Another season of that type and his value could drop a lot

[sfernald]

They did.

Basically said that Utah is listening to offers, but their asking price is too high. Lauri has also said he wants to stay in Utah and not move his wife and kid.

Seems more likely that they will either extend him or risk a contract year with him, but the motivation doesn't seem to be there from Utah's side unless someone makes a ridiculous offer, and it wouldn't be prudent for the Spurs to do so.

That said, it pretty much keeps the Jazz as a treadmill team...not getting worse, but definitely not getting better enough to be relevant.

Since it's reported that Mark won't sit out games again for the Tank next year, him staying is great news for the OKC Thunder and that top 10 protected 2025 draft pick of Utah's they own.

[Atl Spur]

Games played last 3 seasons by Lauri : 55, 66 and 61

Another season of that type and his value could drop a lot

But this board called KP was too injury prone…. They are basically the same guy over the last three years! lol Spurstalk, please never change ( heart emoji )

[exstatic]

Interestingly, some Jazz fans seem to think that Sexton is the wiser guy to hold on to. He's obviously younger, but more importantly his impact relative to his trade value is much higher. Sure enough, Sexton posts a 19.9 PER and a .127 WS/48, compared to Lauri's 21.5 PER and .163 WS/48 (I understand these are flawed metrics. I would have turned to EPM, but I don't have a subscription to Dunks and Threes and am not sure where else to get that info - shout out to whomever has a lead on the best place to look). Point being, Lauri will cost a haul, Sexton's value probably isn't near that (probably because Sexton is such an easier archetype to replace and the league doesn't value undersized SGs). So trading Sexton likely also helps their tank, but they'd get getting back less value than he provides. It would be kind of like trading Derrick White for Blake Wesley and a pick swap (sorry, couldn't resist).

[Spurs9]

Chandler Parsons 2.0

[exstatic]

Games played last 3 seasons by Lauri : 55, 66 and 61

Another season of that type and his value could drop a lot

I think you can count on TWO more seasons like that, since this isn’t the end of that pick’s peril. It only has 1-8 protection in 2025-2026.

[rjv]

They did.

Basically said that Utah is listening to offers, but their asking price is too high. Lauri has also said he wants to stay in Utah and not move his wife and kid.

Seems more likely that they will either extend him or risk a contract year with him, but the motivation doesn't seem to be there from Utah's side unless someone makes a ridiculous offer, and it wouldn't be prudent for the Spurs to do so.

That said, it pretty much keeps the Jazz as a treadmill team...not getting worse, but definitely not getting better enough to be relevant.

they also said that the jazz could still only be better than the blazers in the west this season. that would still only get them around the 6th worst record, considering that they would most likely still have a better record than the pistons, wizards, nets and hornets.

[Knoxxx]

https://athlonsports.com/nba/san-ant...auri-markkanen

Summary: Jazz need to work with us to get up to salary cap floor while avoiding any bad contracts on new free agents or something to that effect.

[Mr. Body]

Wow the Jazz at at the point of worrying about the salary floor. What is Ainge doing.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Jazz aren’t and shouldn’t be worried about the salary floor. That article is incredibly poorly researched.

[exstatic]

Wow the Jazz at at the point of worrying about the salary floor. What is Ainge doing.

Probably clearing room to raise and extend LM.

It would be wild if LM said no, and then no teams would dump salary to Utah, they don’t hit the floor in time, and don’t get their luxtax payment.

[JPB]

Jazz aren’t and shouldn’t be worried about the salary floor. That article is incredibly poorly researched.

I mean, right?

[Mr. Body]

Probably clearing room to raise and extend LM.

It would be wild if LM said no, and then no teams would dump salary to Utah, they don’t hit the floor in time, and don’t get their luxtax payment.

Extending Markkanen would be a big problem for the Jazz. It's their only likely solution but it traps them in this submediocre .

If their plan was extending him, I don't know what they're doing.

If they planned on trading him, they need to somehow use that space with no FAs left or needed.

They're like a semi approaching a barrier in a median. They need to serve left or right but some do either.

[buttsR4rebounding]

Probably clearing room to raise and extend LM.

It would be wild if LM said no, and then no teams would dump salary to Utah, they don’t hit the floor in time, and don’t get their luxtax payment.

Some scrub would just hit the lottery. They'd sign someone for 1 year at the amount they need to reach the minimum.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Some scrub would just hit the lottery. They'd sign someone for 1 year at the amount they need to reach the minimum.

There are plenty of teams willing to shed a contract into cap space and acquire a trade exception. Jazz have a million ways to use their available money.

[Bruno]

For Utah, I don't think there is an obvious right choice between trading and re-signing Markannen.

If Utah follow the usual rebuilding recipe by trading Markannen for picks/prospects, they could easily end up in a Detroit situation and being awful for half a decade because their current youth (Walker Kessler, Taylor Hendricks, Keyonte George...) has shown nothing special so far.

Utah might also try to reload the team around Markannen after one year of tanking with the risk of ending being stuck in mediocrity.


It isn't an easy choice especially with the randomness of the draft lottery playing such a big role in a full rebuilding through the draft process.

[Degoat]

^ I think the problem now is you really dont have to go all in on a tank to end up with a top 4 pick. We just saw it this year with Atlanta moving up to #1 because of the change in the odds for the lottery.

[scott]

Jazz also have open roster slots and can just take back more than they send out if they do trade Lauri. They'll either reneg and ext Lauri to fill that cap space or they'll rent it out... or they'll just do renegotiations on someone like Clarkson as a reward for being a long term good soldier.

Much ado about nothing.

Bleacher report had a hypothetical three-way deal with the Warriors and Kings that is a package the Spurs could easily beat. I love that the media is starting to get over Ainge's hard balling. Ainge.

[scott]

For Utah, I don't think there is an obvious right choice between trading and re-signing Markannen.

If Utah follow the usual rebuilding recipe by trading Markannen for picks/prospects, they could easily end up in a Detroit situation and being awful for half a decade because their current youth (Walker Kessler, Taylor Hendricks, Keyonte George...) has shown nothing special so far.

Utah might also try to reload the team around Markannen after one year of tanking with the risk of ending being stuck in mediocrity.


It isn't an easy choice especially with the randomness of the draft lottery playing such a big role in a full rebuilding through the draft process.

Unfortunately, this is the structure the NBA has created for small market teams. The Spurs would be in this exact spot with Vassell had we not hit the Wemby jackpot. There just isn't another way to crawl out of the bottom for a small market club other than to tank and hope for the ping pong gods to respond.

[TeKu]

It isn't an easy choice especially with the randomness of the draft lottery playing such a big role in a full rebuilding through the draft process.

This is key, and why I expect Utah ends up extending/keeping LM. There's some dedicated tankers this season, even without Markannen I'd put WAS/BKN below UTA in roster talent.

Let's assume they trade LM, tank and end up with the 5th worst record, odds of a top 4 pick are 42% (44% for Top 5).

If they keep LM and follow the same trend as the past 2 seasons and end up with the 8th worst record (where they finished last year), odds of a top 4 pick are 26%.

Would you trade a young All Star, who is on the record as wanting to be with your team, for a extra ~18% chance at a top 4 pick?? At what point does this random math make sense to give up such a key piece, +25%, +30%, +50%?